State border crossing points: economic-political challenges and hopes (a glance from outside)

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State border crossing points: economic-political challenges and hopes (a glance from outside)

Gediminas Buciunas, Vytautas Magnus University

Public Security Academy at Mykolas Romeris University Kaunas

ABSTRACT

The purpose ofthe Article is to highlight the changes in the border crossing situation in Ukraine due to the Russian Federation's aggression and the same time present visions of the strategic development of the state border protection, management of border crossing procedures from a business point of view through lenses of four fundamental freedoms of the European Union single market: the free movement of goods, capital, services, and people, known collectively as the "four freedoms". The author of this paper presents his visions on potential directions for formatting the Integrated Border Management Strategy for the upcoming 10-30 years. It is important to have a grand strategy for Ukraine, especially in the country's national security and economic development. Ben Shalom Bernanke, an American economist who served as the 14th chairman of the Federal Reserve from 2006 to 2014, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics Nobel for work with other economists in "How societies deal with financial crises" stated that "only a strong economy can create higher asset values and sustainably good returns for savers". Amongst many other factors influencing country's economy is border crossing procedures. In February 2019, Ukrainian President signed a constitutional amendment committing the country to become a member of NATO and the European Union. It also affected significant changes in trade partners and the direction of the country's future development. These decisive steps of Ukraine toward rule of law, and prosperity infuriated, and buried the Russian Federation as the so-called Soviet Union successor's ambiguous plan to restore the former Soviet empire. The first phase of the Russian Federation's aggression against Ukraine in 2014 came to the most brutal second phase on 24 February 2022. It impacts modes and means of transporting goods in Ukraine, directions of cargo, and trade partners; significantly changes movement of goods inside and outside of Ukraine, passengers carriers activities, and influx of refugees. It caused long queues for many kilometers' at border crossing points at the Western and Southern part of Ukraine.

Key words: strategy; state border; economy; border crossing; border management.

Пункти перетинання державного кордону: економіко-політичні виклики та сподівання (погляд ззовні)

Гедїмінас Бучюнас, Університет Вітаутаса Великого, м. Каунас, Литва, Академія громадської безпеки при Університеті Миколаса Ромеріса м. Каунас

АНОТАЦІЯ

checkpoint state border

Ця стаття висвітлює зміни ситуації щодо перетинання державного кордону в Україні внаслідок агресії Російської Федерації та водночас представляє бачення стратегічного розвитку охорони державного кордону, управління процедурами перетинання кордону з точки зору бізнесу з точки зору чотирьох основних свобод єдиного ринку Європейського Союзу: вільного руху товарів, капіталу, послуг і людей, відомих разом як «чотири свободи». Автор цієї статті представляє своє бачення потенційних напрямків формування Стратегії інтегрованого управління кордонами на найближчі 10-30 років. Важливо мати велику стратегію для України, особливо у сфері національної безпеки та економічного розвитку країни. Бен Шалом Бернанке, американський економіст, який обіймав посаду 14-го Голови Федеральної резервної системи з 2006 по 2014 рік, лауреат Нобелівської премії з економіки за роботу з іншими економістами в темі «Як суспільства борються з фінансовими кризами», заявив, що «тільки міцна економіка може створити вищу вартість активів і стабільно хороші прибутки для вкладників». Серед багатьох інших факторів, що впливають на економіку країни, є процедури перетинання державного кордону. У лютому 2019 року Президент

України підписав зміни до Конституції, які визначили країні напрямок членом НАТО та Європейського Союзу. Це також вплинуло на суттєві зміни торговельних партнерів та напрямок майбутнього розвитку країни. Ці рішучі кроки України до верховенства права та процвітання розлютили та поховали Російську Федерацію як неоднозначний план так званого спадкоємця Радянського Союзу щодо відновлення колишньої радянської імперії. Перший етап агресії Російської Федерації проти України у 2014 році перейшов у найжорстокіший другий етап 24 лютого 2022 року. Це впливає на способи та засоби транспортування вантажів в Україні, напрямки вантажів, торгових партнерів; суттєво змінюється рух товарів всередині та за межами України, діяльність пасажирських перевізників, приплив біженців. Це спричинило багатокілометрові черги на пунктах пропуску на заході та півдні України.

Ключові слова: стратегія; державний кордон; економіка; перетинання кордону; управління кордоном.

INTRODUCTION

After the collapse of the Soviet empire Ukraine had gained independence and steadily move toward a market economic model, despite attempts from the Russian Federation's side to keep Ukraine in the sphere of influence by using different tools and methods starting from price policy for gas and oil, information war through dissemination of fake information, interference into Ukraine political life through using different tools till brutal military aggression.

Seneca the Younger stated “The greater part of progress is the desire to progress” 102 Inspiring Progress Quotes To Keep You Moving Forward. URL: https://kidadl.com/quotes/ inspiring-progress-quotes-to-keep-you-moving-forward. Ukraine shows a very strong desire for progress despite some failures in some areas of social life, despite interference from outside (from the Russian Federation side) into internal matters of Ukraine and foreign policy of Ukraine.

In the last years Ukraine prepared the Strategy of National Security of Ukraine approved by Decree of the President of Ukraine in September 2020, the Strategy of Military Security of Ukraine approved by Decree of the President of Ukraine in March 2021, the Cyber Security Strategy of Ukraine approved by Decree of the President of Ukraine in August 2021, the National Economic Strategy 2030 approved by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine in March 2021, the Integrated Border Management Strategy for the period up to 2025 approved by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine in July 2019 with amendments in 2021, the National Strategy to Increase Foreign Direct Investment in Ukraine approved in 2021, etc. strategies covering different parts of social life and business activities in Ukraine.

Ukraine applied for the European Union membership in February 2022 and has been granted EU candidate status in June 2022. Moldova also applied for the European Union membership in March 2022 and has been granted EU candidate status in June 2022. It leads to the conclusion that after some period Ukraine is going to be in the European Union Member States' family. It also brings responsibilities for Ukraine on external EU border protection, management with passenger flow, cargo movements, coping with trans-border crimes, and migration flows not only with the European Union Member States (hereinafter referred to as “EU MS”) but also with non-EU MS: the Russian Federation, Republic of Belarus, Moldova.

The author of this paper is going to present trends in the development of management in border protection of Ukraine in the post-war period based on the identified issues after the Russian Federation aggression's second brutal phase from 24 February 2022, the experience of the Baltic States on border management before joining to EU on the 1^st of May 2004.

The author's visions on the Integrated Border Management Strategy and Action Plan to it might be important for preparation and implementation of the country's strategic documents related to the country's economic policy, attractiveness for foreign investments, tourism, for increasing Ukraine's competitiveness in the global market, for creating proper conditions to became hub for transportation of goods in the Black Sea region and to improve country's happiness index.

PURPOSE AND METHODOLOGY

This Article is based on an analysis of the mentioned above strategies and the author in his research especially focuses on the National Economic Strategy 2030, approved by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine in March 2021, the Integrated Border Management Strategy for the period up to 2025 approved by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine in July 2019 with amendments in 2021, National Strategy to Increase Foreign Direct Investment in Ukraine approved in 2021.

The following research methods are used: content analysis, textual analysis, archival research, analytic induction, comparative research, authors' field observations, analysis of statistics, etc.

DESCRIPTION OF THE OBTAINED RESULTS

The Preamble of the Constitution of Ukraine states “Caring for the strengthening of civil harmony on Ukrainian soil and confirming the European identity of the Ukrainian people and the irreversibility of the European and Euro-Atlantic course of Ukraine's” Constitution of Ukraine. URL: https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/main/en/254K/96-Bp#Text. Above mentioned Ukraine course serves as an entry point for the visions of the country's further development in various fields. The author of this paper is going to focus on the country's Integrated Border Management Strategy development through lenses of four fundamental freedoms of the European Union single market.

The Integrated Border Management Strategy until 2025 approved by the Decree of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine No 687-p of 24 July 2019 with an amendment by the Decree of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine No 145-p of 24 February 2021 in general part states that “the effectiveness of the management of the state border depends on the security of the State, the development of its economy and human potential. The development of an effective system of state border management will contribute to crossborder cooperation, increase revenues of state and local budgets, and tourism, and simplify other forms of legal movement of persons, services, and goods”¹.

Integrated border management is key to secure, fast and proper management of travellers and goods crossing the borders. The new reality calls for better tools and practices to manage the unprecedentedly intensive border crossing between Ukraine and its EU neighbours as well as to respond to new security challenges at other borders of the country, and we stand there for Ukraine to focus on the most critical and urgent needs, commented Arunas Adomenas, EU4IBM Team Leader Integrated Border Management Strategy untill 2025 approved by the Decree of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine No 687-p of 24 July, 2019 with amendment by the Decree of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine No 145-p of 24 February, 2021. EU supports Ukrainian border management agencies in securing their operation URL:https://www. eeas.europa.eu/delegations/ukraine/eu-supports-ukrainian-border-management-agencies-secu- ring-their-operation_en?s=232.

The Strategy is designed to effectively implement the principles of the Integrated Border Management as proclaimed by the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the European Union. The Strategy contains best European practices adapted to the national legislation and based on the European principles of integrated border management along 11 directions and tasks. The author of this research paper would like to highlight these directions and tasks:

“1) Protection of the state border, border crossing procedures for the clearance of persons, transport, and cargoes in line with the established order, and taking preventive measures to counter transfrontier crime.

5) Cooperation of competent state bodies on ensuring the security and openness of the state border and the exchange of information.

11) Effective use of resources by competent state bodies in the implementation of state policy in the field of integrated border management" Gov't approves Integrated Border Management Strategy. URL: https://www.kmu.gov.ua/en/news/ uryad-shvaliv-strategiyu-integrovanogo-upravlinnya-kordonami. These directions and tasks are going to be entry points for future development of the border crossing policy.

Ukraine borders with four EU MS (Poland, the Republic of Slovak, Romania, and Hungary), and three non-EU MS (the Republic of Moldova, the Republic of Belarus, and aggressor that is the Russian Federation).

The state border of Ukraine with EU MS is delimitated and demarcated, although not fully demarcated with the Republic of Moldova, the Republic of Belarus, and the Russian Federation. The total length of the state border of Ukraine (land and maritime, river sections include) is 6992.9 km. The land section of the border is 5637,9 km, of which: with Poland is 542,3 km, with the Republic of Slovak is 97,8 km, with Hungary is 136.7 km, with Romania is 613.8 km, with the Republic of Belarus is 084,2 km, with the Republic of Moldova is 1222 km, and with the Russian Federation is 1974 km.

On 30 May 2018 the National Transport Strategy for the period till 2030 - “Drive Ukraine 2030”¹ was approved by the Order of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine No 430. On 7 April 2021 the Government of Ukraine endorsed the Order “On approval of the Action Plan for the implementation of the National Transport Strategy of Ukraine for the period up to 2030”. The Action Plan was drafted by the Ministry of Infrastructure in pursuance of the paragraph 3 of the Order of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine as of 30 May 2018, No 430 “On approval of the National Transport Strategy of Ukraine for the period up to 2030” Drive Ukraine 2030. URL: https://www.usubc.org/files/Drive_Ukraine_2030.pdf Government portal. Official website. URL: https://www.kmu.gov.ua/en/news/uryad-zatver- div-plan-zahodiv-z-realizaciyi-nacionalnoyi-transportnoyi-strategiyi-ukrayini-do-2030-roku-vladis- lav-kriklij.

The European Commission adopted the decision on signing a high- level agreement with Ukraine, updating the indicative maps for the trans-European transport network (TEN-T) in Ukraine. This should help to strengthen transport connectivity between Ukraine and the EU on railways, roads, and inland waterways. In addition, the Commission seeks for identifying common infrastructure priorities and increase of interoperability between TEN-T and Ukrainian infrastructure, for example, by laying EU standard-gauge rail lines in the border regions of Ukraine and Moldova, since both currently use a wider gauge than their neighbours. The projects should be supported under the Connecting Europe Facility, which has a total budget of €25.81B for the 2021-2027 period Russia's war on Ukraine: Implications for transport. URL: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/ RegData/etudes/BRIE/2022/733536/EPRS_BRI(2022)733536_EN.pdf.

Transport in the logistic industry of Ukraine is following: 1) ground transportation (road and rail); 2) water (sea and river); 3) air transportation; 4) pipelines.

Transit transport in Ukraine has been dropping at an alarming rate within the last 20 years. In 2014 it accounted for 13% of the total international goods movement by all modes, a sharp contrast to its 50 % share in 2004 A look at Transit Transport in Ukraine. URL: https://mtu.gov.ua/files/A%20look%20at%20 Transit%20Transport%20in%20Ukraine-Draft-Final-Report.pdf.

Trade partners and top 5 export/import products of Ukraine in 2014. According to World Integrated Trade Solution's data top five countries to which Ukraine exported in 2014 are below, along with the percentage of total exports that went to that country:

to the Russian Federation worth $9,799 million, with a partner share of 18.18%;

to Turkey worth $3,561 million, with a partner share of 6.61%; to Egypt, Arab Rep. worth $2,862 million, with a partner share of 5.31%;

to China worth $2,674 million, with a partner share of 4.96%; to Poland worth $2,645 million, with a partner share of 4.91%.

Top five countries from which Ukraine imported goods in 2014, and percent of total imports that came from the country:

from the Russian Federation worth $12,679 million, with a partner share of 23.31%;

from China worth $5,409 million, with a partner share of 9.95%; from Germany worth $5,360 million, with a partner share of 9.86%; from Belarus worth $3,971 million, with a partner share of 7.30%; from Poland worth $3,067 million, with a partner share of 5.64%.

The top five exported products to the world by Ukraine along with trade value were:

Maize (excl. seed), worth $3,323,288.90 million;

Crude sunflower seed and safflower oil and frac, worth $3,315,824.44 million;

Spelt, common wheat, and meslin, worth $2,272,326.96 million;

Iron is worth $1,742,349.12 million;

Non-agglomerated iron ores and concentrates, worth $1,741,319.93 million.

The top five imported products from the world by Ukraine along with trade value were:

Petroleum oils, etc., (excl. crude); preparation, worth $6,685,168.67 million;

Natural gas in a gaseous state is worth $5,694,635.60 million;

Bituminous coal, not agglomerated, worth $1,575,641.29 million;

Other medicaments of mixed or unmixed products, worth $1,443,921.99 million.

Fuel elements (cartridges), non-irradiated, worth $628,175.92 million¹.

Trade partners and top 5 export/import products of Ukraine in 2020. According to the Observatory of Economic Complexity (the world's leading data visualization tool for international trade) data the top exports of Ukraine in 2020 were: seed oils ($5.32B), corn ($4.89B), wheat ($4.61B), iron ore ($4.27B), and semi-finished iron ($3.03B), exporting mostly to China ($7.26B), Poland ($3.26B), Russia ($2.97B), Turkey ($2.5B), and Egypt ($2.39B). The top imports of Ukraine in 2020 were: refined petroleum ($3.59B), cars ($3.35B), packaged medicaments ($2.04B), petroleum gas ($1.59B), and coal briquettes ($1.25B), importing mostly from China ($7.46B), Russia ($6.31B), Poland ($5.68B), Germany ($5.25B), and Belarus ($3.15B) Ukraine Trade Summary 2014. URL: https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/UKR/ Year/2014/Summarytext Ukraine. URL: https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ukr.

In accordance with the International Monetary Fund data, Ukraine's largest trading partner in 2020 was China, with the value of trade between the two countries reaching $15.3B, more than double the value of any other trading partner. Germany ($7.4B), Poland ($7.4B), and Russia ($7.2B) were Ukraine's next three largest trading partners, with the majority of Ukraine's trade with these countries being imports Ukraine's Largest Trading Partners. URL:https:// https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ visualizing-ukraines-top-trading-partners-and-products/. In January-October 2020 Ukrainian ports handled more than 132 million tonnes of cargo, which is 2,2 million more than during the same period last year, reports the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine Over 132 mln. tonnes of cargo handled by Ukrainian ports during 10 month period. URL: https:// ukraineinvest.gov.ua/news/over-13 2-mln-tonnes-of-cargo-handled-by-ukrainian-ports-during- -10-month-period/.

Comparative analysis of Ukraine's trade partners' in 2014 and in 2020 shows a significantly increased share of China in trade partners of Ukraine. Around 30% of all imported products fall to the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus. It leads to the conclusion that one of the main directions of transportation goods was the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus in 2020.

According to the Eurostat data in 2021, Ukraine was the 17th largest partner for EU exports of goods (1.3%) and the 15^th largest partner for EU imports of goods (1.1%). Among EU Member States, Poland was both the largest importer of goods from and the largest exporter of goods to Ukraine in 2021¹. According to the European Commission data, the EU is Ukraine's largest trading partner, accounting for 39.5% of its trade in 2021². According to Statista (The Statistics Portal for Market Data), Ukraine had the largest trade revenue with China, which exceeded $18.6B in 2021. Poland was Ukraine's second-leading trade partner, with the sum of exports from Ukraine and imports to Ukraine measured at nearly $9.9B³.

The next Russian military invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 fully paralyzed water (rivers, seas) and air transportation modes of Ukraine and almost sea transportation routines. The closure of Ukrainian ports heavily impacted numerous supply chains, including transit. All burden for carrying goods falls under the trucking industry, carrying the passenger underground transportation (rail, road). Despite the Istanbul's agreement on grain export in 2022, Ukraine also exports grain by land, using mainly trucks and trains. See below a map of alternative routes for grain⁴.

According to Ukraine Business News the results of the first half of 2022, Ukraine's foreign trade amounted to $48B, which is 27%, or $13B, less than in the first half of 2021. So, in January-June of this year, almost 18 million tons of goods worth $25.3B have been imported into Ukraine. For comparison, the import of goods from the same period last year amounted to $31.1B. At the same time, since the beginning of 2022, exports from Ukraine amounted to 50.2 million tons of goods for $22.7B. In the first half of 2021, the export of goods amounted to $29.1B. According to the results of the first half of 2022, China remains the largest trading partner of Ukraine, with imports of $3.5B. Germany is second with $2.2B in trade, and Poland with $2.1B. Ukraine exported goods to China for $4.3B, Poland for $2.3B, and Turkey for $ 1.8B Ukraine Business News. URL: https://ubn.news/ukraines-trade-has-fallen-by-27-since-the-begin- ning-of-the-year/.

Comparative analysis of the data from 2014, and 2020 and available data for 6 months of 2022 on trade partners of Ukraine in import and export goods, allows to come to the conclusion on significant changes in transportation modes, and routes of transport directions from the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus to the EU MS.

¹ Ukraine-EU - international trade in goods statistics. URL: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statis- tics-explained/index.php?title=Ukraine-EU_-_international_trade_in_goods_statistics

² Trade. URL: https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/ countries-and-regions/ukraine_en

³ Trade revenue of Ukraine in 2021, by country and flow. URL: https://www.statista.com/ statistics/1297572/ukraine-trade-revenue-by-country/

⁴ How much grain has been shipped from Ukraine? URL: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-61759692

The brutal aggression of the Russian Federation against independent and sovereign Ukraine, with the involvement of the Republic of Belarus in aggression against Ukraine, the tension in USA-China relations, and other events occurring in the geopolitical area, first signs of the economic crisis in the World, above presented data on the significant changes in the trade partners creates grounds for deeper discussions and following changes on the future development of the National Security Strategy, National Economic Strategy, the Integrated Border Management Strategy and other closely interrelated strategies of Ukraine for upcoming decades.

Every country and separate region is confronted with a variety of threats, the origins, or rather the source, of which can vary from the effects of natural disasters to the deliberate actions of individual people, their group, or even countries seeking to destabilize the situation in a local area, region or State in pursuit of geopolitical aims. The threats are faced both countries with strong economies and sustainable societies as well as countries taking their first steps towards democracy. The source of the threat does not have to be internal, i.e. in the territory of the country.

The threat, like a virus, can spread from the territory of other countries. For example, weapon of mass migration as a hybrid war weapon against the national security of the other country. The Belorussian authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko used the same tactics toward Poland, the Republic of Lithuania, the Republic of Latvia as “in Libya, Gaddafi used the threat of maritime migration to have the embargo lifted, and continued doing so up until the NATO air campaign of 2011. The unrecognized Tripoli government has similarly threatened, as Gaddafi did in 2010, that Europe would 'turn black' unless more resources and political recognition were forthcoming. In Morocco, the government has managed to extract substantial 'geographical rent' from the country's positioning on irregular migration routes in a more subtle manner. In Spain, it is widely acknowledged among border professionals that 'if [migrants] pass, it's because they [the Moroccan authorities] want them to pass', as one civil guard put it. By selectively 'opening' and 'closing' its borders, Rabat can maintain pressure on Spain and the EU while assuring a politics of recognition of Morocco as a key European partner. Such nonroutine situations that arise need to be based on risk identification and assessment, and require an adequate response to contain the situation, to provide effective risk management measures, thereby reducing or eliminating the emerging threats and potential consequences for the wellbeing and safety of the country, the region, the public”¹.

Another example on possible risk to the national security can be usage of the human beings as tool for pressure on another sovereign country, for example, the pilgrims as weapon. Big influx of pilgrims occurred at the border crossings points between Ukraine and the Republic of Belarus in September 2020. Thousands of Hasidic Jewish pilgrims tried to enter Ukraine to celebrate Rosh Hashana, the Jewish New Year, in the city of Uman, site of the grave of Rabbi Nachman, the founder of the Breslov branch of Hasidic Judaism. Due to increasing COVID-19 cases in the country, Ukraine closed its borders, blocking the pilgrimage, which typically draws tens of thousands of people, many coming from Israel. Although the Republic of Belarus had another policy regarding COVID-19 pandemic and allow pilgrims come to Belarus Andersson R. (2016). Europe's failed 'fight' against irregular migration: ethnographic notes on a counterproductive industry. Journal of Ethnic and Migration studies. Vol. 42. No. 7. pp. 1055-1075. Virus Strands Hasidic Pilgrims on Ukraine-Belarus Border. URL: https://www.nytimes. com/2020/09/15/world/europe/virus-strands-hasidic-pilgrims-on-ukraine-belarus-border.html.

Above presented threat is one of many factors influencing country's border protection policy, country's national security. For this reasons country's leadership, policymakers should be ready to forecast developments in the different areas of life. It impossible to do without planning future steps in the national security field. Daily or weekly planning plays a significant role in a human being's personal life, and productivity. The same might observed in the business world. The most successful companies plan investments and explore new markets. The author of this paper would like to draw attention of lawmakers and politicians to the importance of the scenario-planning model before taking some step, for example imposing a state of emergency, preparing strategy of the Integrated Border Management, Action Plan. For example, before imposing a state of emergency on some parts or the whole territory of the country, a decision-maker must have a clear picture of how things could go and have a list of all possible pros and cons in relation to the upcoming restrictions or bans. It creates a solid ground for good quality legal regulation and also leads to well-balanced decisions, the proportional use of powers, protection of human rights and freedoms, securing the principle of legitimate expectations of civil society, good governance, and effective management, efficient use of resources to achieve an objective prescribed by laws on the state of emergency. Someone could argue that the scenario-planning model cannot predict the future. Why should we waste our precious time for discussions in such cases - let's act, let's do. Here we can remember the quote of Otto von Bismarck, a Prussian statesman who served as the first Chancellor of Germany “Fools learn from experience. I prefer to learn from the experience of others” 41 Otto Von Bismarck Quotes for Your History Studies. URL: https://kidadl.com/quotes/ otto-von-bismarck-quotes-for-your-history-studies. It could be the answer to the remark of opponents on the uselessness of preparing the scenario-planning model. At least it can preclude the worst-case scenario, but it cannot guarantee for 100 percent that everything will go exactly according to the scenario. The scenario-planning model significantly reduces the risk of failures and prevents undesirable outcomes. Despite this pessimistic note, more and more decision-making bodies employ future studies methods and scenario-planning models in their activities. Future studies emerged in the second half of the XX^th century. As organizations, societies, and civilization advance and become more complex, so does planning and the techniques used to plan. The techniques evolve towards their purpose and use in the granularity of their detail, rigor, and the technologies that enable and calculate in support. The early methods for prediction had supplanted by the forecasting of indicators in an attempt to “assert control and a measure of certainty over an unknown future” Slaughter R.A. (2002). From forecasting and scenarios to social construction: changing methodolog-ical paradigms in futures studies. Foresight. Vol. 4. No. 3. pp. 26-31..

The topic of this research paper falls under the umbrella of the scenario-planning model in the Integrated Border Management Strategy for Ukraine for upcoming decades. The author of this paper is going to focus on the development of border crossing policy with the Republic of Moldova, the Republic of Belarus, the Russian Federation, and EU MS through a scenario planning model aspect.

Achievement of the objectives of the National Security, National Economic, Integrated Border Management Strategies, and performance of the tasks mentioned in the action plans of the above-mentioned strategies requires some amount of resources: financial and human. Although, the resources are limited due to different reasons. At the same time, it puts the burden of responsibility on the shoulders of the country's leaders, and politicians for making decisions on the country's future development. It might be done a decision that leads to the country's prosperity or it could be a failure that may lead to disappointment amongst the population and the same time creates a niche for the enemies used in given situations to interfere in the country's election campaigns etc. In given situation the country's leadership should have a clear view, and vision of the country's development in the upcoming decades including the important part of the vision that is border management, especially border crossing policy with neighbouring countries. It allows effective and efficient cope with the allocated financial resources. At the same time, effective border management impacts the country's economy through decreasing losses for companies and impacts on the final price of product, service. The author presents his findings on it in this Article.

Different strategies should be in place and employed on the border management course toward border crossing-border points development with the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus from one side and with the Republic of Moldova (before solving issues with unrecognized Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic entity by diplomatic instruments) from the other side.

The author of this paper would like to propose to focus on the development of the joint border crossing points model with candidates to the EU - the Republic of Moldova and with EU MS.

Another strategy for future development of the border crossing policy, including measures, installations for protection of border with the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus must be employed.

Each implementation of the border crossing policy in real life should start from a meticulous planning stage with a usage scenario-based model. The project of a new or reconstruction of already functioning border crossing points is going to be an expensive thing. It is like an investment into the business from the State and the EU side. How to employ and use allocated funds in the most effective and efficient way in the coming decades? How does the border crossing point activity impact the local community's life? Is it secure due to the huge amount of vehicles moving from/to? How are the environment, and air pollution? Is the border crossing procedure clear? What kind of documents should be presented during border crossing? How is state-of-art (the latest achievement of science, modern technologies) employed at the border crossing points? What are the methods used to tackle trans-border crimes and corruption? What is support for the state side to business, especially local? How to minimize losses of human hours, etc. resources for border crossing procedures? How to find the proper balance between the interests of national security and freedom of movement? How to arrangement the joint border crossing points and exchange of information amongst the country's institutions and also with the partners from neighbouring/bordering Ukraine countries? Here the author of this research paper mentioned just a small part of the questions related to the future development of the border crossing policy.

The first thing to do on developing the border crossing policy, identify which border crossing points are going to transform from the double the border crossing points model (each country's institutions in charge for state border protection and customs policy perform their tasks separately) to the joint border crossings model (bordering/neighbouring countries' institutions work together, jointly, without duplication some border crossing procedures, coordinate export and import controls, opening hours, and competencies). The physical state of the border crossing is often a reflection of the relationship between two countries. A necessary prerequisite is therefore to establish fruitful and trusted relationships among neighbouring countries.

Ukraine already did the first steps toward the joint border crossing model. According to the official information from the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine as of 22 May 2022, Ukraine and Poland will carry out joint control at all road checkpoints. The relevant proposal developed by the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine in cooperation with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Customs and Border Services, has presented to the Polish side today during the visit of the President of the Republic of Poland Andrzej Duda. Today, joint border and customs control is already carried out at four checkpoints for passenger and passenger cars on the Ukrainian-Polish border”¹.

The joint border crossing model requires consideration of the important fact that after Ukraine's accession into the EU, joint border crossing points are going to stop operating with exemptions prescribed by the laws. In accordance with the provisions, the Schengen Borders Code, the country (EU MS) has the right to reintroduce border control at the internal borders in the event of a serious threat to public policy or internal security. The reintroduction of border control at the internal borders must be applied as a last resort measure, in exceptional situations, and must respect the principle of proportionality. The duration of such a temporary reintroduction of border control at the internal borders is limited in time, depending on the legal basis invoked by the EU MS introducing such border control of temporary cross border control. This fact should be taken into account on planning future management of infrastructure, buildings, and equipment at the border crossing points, leaving necessary things needed to perform tasks in proper way after introduction border control.

Another important thing should be topic for discussion is the usage of border crossing point's infrastructure, buildings, and equipment after Ukraine's joining the EU. What is going to be with infrastructure, buildings, and equipment? It is comparable to the situation at the objects of the Olympic Games.

As reality shows some venues used for the Olympic Games later have abandoned Government portal. Official website. URL: https://www.kmu.gov.ua/en/news/mininfrastruktu- ri-ukrayina-ta-polshcha-zdijsnyuvatimut-spilnij-kontrol-na-vsih-avtomobilnih-punktah-propusku Abandoned Athens Olympic 2004 venues, 10 years on - in pictures. URL: https://www.theguardian. com/sport/gallery/2014/aug/13/abandoned-athens-olympic-2004-venues-10-years-on-in-pictures. Some of the objects were destroyed by time staying without any usage. A similar situation might be witnessed or even found in some border crossing points after the country's accession to the EU. The infrastructure and building of some border crossing points are used till now for other needs, some of them were left without proper maintenance and now they appear in deplorable status.

Before introducing smart border technology, we should identify main risks and threats. It could be separate topic for the research as for creation of anticorruption environment. Just one pre-condition should be kept in mind before start to introduce the newest technologies at the border crossing points, border protection with non EU-MS - delimitation and demarcation of Ukraine boundaries should be accomplished, and agreements should be signed between Ukraine and non-EU MS. It creates solid legal grounds to move on introduction of the state-of-art at border protection, management.

Losses for economy, losses for companies and impact on the final price of product, service. Since Ukrainian ports are blocked and railway transportation is limited, the movement of trucks loaded with grain and other agriculture products has become important for Ukrainian exports. “As well as waiting five and more days in the queue to get out of Ukraine into Romania, they have to wait days at the border on the other side to return home”, said Kees. “I have driven past the queues myself just to see what is going on. There are 25 km of trucks on the Ukraine side waiting to cross into Poland and the drivers are waiting 5 to 6 days there"¹. These excerpts from the interviews with drivers. The interviews were done in April 2022. The picture of queues at the border with Poland, and Romania in October, in the middle of December 2022 almost the same as it was in April 2022.

According to Mustafa Nayyem, Ukrainian Deputy Infrastructure Minister before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Polish Phyto and veterinary services were able to check 80 trucks per day but recently the service processes on average only 12-25 trucks a day. Spending a day in a queue a truck owner loses on average €400 Trucks filled with grain stranded for days at Ukraine border. URL: https://www.allaboutfeed.net/ market/market-trends/trucks-filled-with-grain-stranded-for-days-at-ukraine-border/ Ukraine accuses Polish control services of provoking long queues of trucks at the border. URL: ht- tps://razumkov.org.ua/en/comments/ukraine-accuses-polish-control-services-of-provoking-long- -queues-of-trucks-at-the-border.

Truck drivers are in limited numbers due to wartime. It is a big loss for the economy of Ukraine, a loss for private companies and it also has a huge impact on the final price of a product, a service. Goods with a high transport intensity tend to have a low added value. Transportation-in costs are part of the cost of goods purchased. In a simple way, it is all costs necessary to get a good in place and ready for use.

The author of this paper presents calculations done in the USA related to the queues at the border crossing points. The time to cross from Laredo to Nuevo Laredo, a 10-mile trip, usually takes from 2-5 days and may take longer, and the border crossing services cost between $287 - $636/ truck. The border crossing services times and costs include handling costs and associated times of Mexican broker inspections for pre-clearance and storage; costs of loading and unloading; drayage costs and times of border crossing transport; inspections on the U.S. and Mexican sides. These non-tariff barriers affect trade. What are the implications of these inefficiencies? A simple calculation of the microeconomic impact of these extra costs of southbound border crossings shows that the impact is apparently minimal: $285-$636 of border crossing costs/ trailer, with an average cost of $30,000 cargo/trailer represents from 0.95% to 2.12%.

However, there are also hidden costs: the time waiting to cross, the uncertainty of time the process takes, pollution, congestion from border crossings with empty trucks, corruption, investments in unnecessary infrastructure, and the cost of maintaining the infrastructure. An increase of 1% to 2% in the costs due to border crossing inefficiencies is insufficient to explain the big price differences observed between the United States and Mexico. A more important reason is possibly the time involved. Hummels (2001) estimates indicate that each day saved in shipping time is worth 0.8% ad valorem for manufactured goods. Applying this estimate, and considering that manufactures have to wait in Laredo from two to five days to cross the border southbound, this is equivalent to a tariff from 1.6 percent to 4 percent or more, according to the number of days the cargo has to wait to cross the border" Fox A.K., Francois J.F., Londono-Kent P. (2003). Measuring Border Crossing Costs and their Impact on Trade Flows: The United States-Mexican Trucking Case. URL: https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/ resources/download/1492.pdf.

The Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine announced the start of implementation of the project on Electronic Border Crossing Queue. According to the official announcement, the service is launched in October 2022. The service will be available only for carriers. The electronic queue system for trucks will be integrated with the customs and border service databases. This will allow giving priority to certain categories of cars, for example, those carrying perishable products. The carrier can independently choose the waiting place - it's not necessary to wait at the checkpoint. In case of a delay in the progress of the queue, the driver will receive a notification. First, the system will work at one checkpoint, and later it will be implemented at the remaining ones In October, an electronic queue will be launched at border checkpoints. URL: https://visitukraine. today/blog/878/in-october-an-electronic-queue-will-be-launched-at-border-checkpoints.

The reasons for queues at the borders with EU MS. Changes in transportation modes, types, and route directions due to the aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine. Before the war, many trucks going to the Baltic States, Finland especially from central and eastern parts of Ukraine crossed the border through Belorussia and it was faster than going through Poland to the Baltic States and Finland.

Due to the limited capacity of the Polish veterinary service to handle food supplies (during a shift of around 6-12 trucks can be checked and dealt with paperwork at the BCP during working hours of Polish veterinary service. During the weekend, veterinary service does not work (data as of May 2022). Proposal is to speed up veterinary procedures at the border by simplifying procedures and changing the working hours of the above- mentioned service. It should be operating 24/7. Although it relates to additional material, human, and financial resources.

Due to Russian aggression, all Ukrainian seaports were closed and now most share of cargo is carried by trucks to and from Ukraine. Availability of the border crossing points (hereinafter referred to as “BCP”) to accept more trucks is limited by the size of the place designed for trucks inside BCP territories and trucks with food cargo/freight which are processed by phytosanitary and veterinary service also going to BCP as other trucks. It is the main reason for the slow workload of BCP and it affects other state institutions' activity dealing with border crossing procedures at Polish- Ukrainian border such as Customs Service, State Border Guard Service. Many trucks load in the Western Europe, mainly in Germany on Monday- Tuesday, and then drive to Ukraine through Germany, and territory of Poland. It takes 2-3 days to reach the border with Ukraine due to different reasons. One, mandatory time for rest after driving set up by-laws for a period of time. Tachograph contains all information about drivers driving and resting for a period of time. There are no loading services in many Western, Central, and in some Eastern European countries on Saturday and Sunday. According to the legal provisions in force in Germany, traffic of trucks (heavy transport with some exceptions for some categories of cargo) banned in Germany on Sundays. This is the main reason why many truck drivers try to leave Germany until Saturday evening. At the same moment, it creates huge queues at the border between Ukraine and Poland.

The queue at the border crossing point with Poland is increasing in the afternoon when the drivers from the central and eastern regions of Ukraine arrived. This means a few days of waiting time with no facilities on the road to make it easier for the drivers. No one, but the drivers themselves take control over the queue, sometimes it creates conflict situation, especially with a driver carrying humanitarian aid returning back with empty trucks. Frequent air alarms, during which the border crossing points stop to operate.

Traffic accidents and the health status of drivers. Long waiting hours at the border crossing points impact the health status of drivers. Studies done in the US revealed that truck drivers often do not recognize their sleepiness, or, if they do, continue driving regardless. „In a multinational survey, almost 30% of truck drivers admitted to having had at least one near-miss experience in the last three months due to fatigue. The growing rate of drive control cards is starting to decrease the number of tired truck drivers on the road. However, experience has shown that drive control cards are often neglected. Therefore, road traffic accidents (hereinafter referred to as „RTAs“) involving trucks still happen frequently. Truck drivers have a high lifetime risk of becoming injured due to a traffic incident. Commercial truck drivers are seven times more likely to have an accident-related death when compared to the average population of the U.S. The risk of truck drivers suffering serious injuries after a collision is high. Occupants in single-vehicle RTAs are at higher risk of serious injuries than in multi-vehicle accidents. In single and multivehicle RTAs truck driver's injury severity was partially dependent on the age of the truck driver as well as the number of vehicles involved in a collision: elderly truck drivers (> 50 years) had a 5.4% increased risk of fatality in single vehicle RTAs; however fatality was decreased by 7.5% with multi-vehicle RTAs.

Reasons for RTAs involving trucks are multifactorial. They include chronic illness, tiredness/lack of concentration, intoxication, speed, and time. The effect of the individual driving style is still being considered"¹.

“There were 388,000 large truck accidents in 2018 in the US. This means that truck accidents make up about 6.5% of total accidents. However, in the U.S. truck accidents makeup twice the percentage of fatal crashes. Of those 388,000 large truck accidents, 28% (107,000) resulted in injury and over 11% (4,415) resulted in a fatality. This accounts for over 13 percent of total fatal crashes in 2018. Unfortunately, the fatalities associated with truck accidents occur mostly to occupants of other vehicles. In 2019, in truck accidents involving two or more vehicles, only 72 large truck occupants were killed. Meanwhile, 2,132 passenger vehicle occupants were killed" Decker S., Otte D., Muller C.W. et al. (2016). Road Traffic Related Injury Severity in Truck Drivers: A Prospective Medical and Technical Analysis of 582 Truck Crashes. Archives of Trauma Research. Vol. 5(2): e31380. URL: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5035669/ What Percentage of Accidents Are Caused by Semi-Trucks? URL: https://www.colombolaw.com/ ohio-blog/how-many-accidents-involve-trucks/.

CONCLUSIONS

Comparative analysis of trade partners in 2014 and in 2020 shows a significantly increased share of China in trade partners of Ukraine.

One of the main directions of transportation goods was the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus in Ukraine 2020.

Russian military invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 fully paralyzed water (rivers, seas) and air transportation modes of Ukraine and almost sea transportation routines. The closure of the Ukrainian ports heavily impacted numerous supply chains, including transit. All burden for carrying goods falls under the trucking industry, carrying the passenger underground transportation (rail, road).