The ethnopolitical context of the median hedging of Turkey as a model for ensuring national stability

The transformation of the geopolitical and technological space of the Russian Federation and the United States in the context of the Russian military aggression against Ukraine is a complex process that covers a wide range of aspects, from international relations and military strategy to technological development and information warfare. We will highlight these aspects below.

Geopolitical transformation: the Russian military aggression against Ukraine significantly changed the international position of the Russian Federation, isolating it from many Western countries. The imposition of economic sanctions, the refusal of Russian energy carriers, and the strengthening of military alliances against the Russian Federation (for example, the expansion of NATO) reflect these changes. The USA intensified its role in Europe and international relations broadly, supporting Ukraine with military aid and leading in the imposition of international sanctions against the Russian Federation. It also contributed to the deepening of transatlantic ties and the strengthening of NATO as the alliance responded to the challenges arising from the conflict. It also stimulated the debate on energy security and reducing dependence on Russian energy resources [2].

Technological transformation: technological sanctions imposed by the West have limited the Russian Federation's access to Western technologies, especially in high technology and computer chips. This stimulated the Russian Federation to look for alternative sources of technology and contributed to attempts to develop its technological solutions. Still, it also led to lagging in some key sectors. The United States continues to be a leader in technological innovations, actively developing and implementing the latest military and cyber security technologies. The conflict prompted the strengthening of defence capabilities in cyberspace and investments in the development of artificial intelligence, unmanned technologies, and other innovative solutions [4].

Information warfare and hybrid operations: Armed conflict has accelerated the development of information technologies used in hybrid warfare, including cyber-attacks, propaganda, and disinformation. Both sides actively use digital technologies to wage information wars, spread their narratives, and influence public opinion worldwide. The Russian Federation uses its state media and social networks to spread propaganda and misinformation, trying to influence the international community and destabilise the situation in Ukraine and Western countries [8]. Cyber-attacks have become another tool of hybrid warfare, targeting government institutions, infrastructure, and the private sector of adversary countries. Meanwhile, the US and its allies use their technological resources to defend themselves against cyberattacks and counter-propaganda as well as detect and block disinformation. This includes developing software for monitoring and analysing the information space, improving cyber defence mechanisms, and cooperating with technology companies to combat the spread of fake news and manipulation in social networks [9]. The US and its partners are also actively working to increase public awareness of information warfare techniques and to teach critical information perception.

Impact on international relations: the Russian military aggression against Ukraine contributed to rethinking the security architecture of Europe and the world, stimulating countries to review their defence and foreign policy strategies. In particular, this led to increased military expenditures, a transformation of defence doctrines, and the search for new security alliances and partnerships [3].

Technological Confrontation and Innovation: Armed conflict has emphasised the importance of technological superiority in modern conflicts, driving innovation in military technology, cyber security, communications, and intelligence. This highlighted the importance of investment in scientific research and development and the need to adapt to the rapidly changing world technological ecosystem.

In general, the Russian military aggression against Ukraine has become not just a “local crisis” but a significant test for the international order, causing large-scale geopolitical and technological changes. This conflict highlighted the importance of new military technologies and information warfare and pushed many countries to rethink their defence strategies and security policies. In particular, the influence on the relations between the Russian Federation and the USA, which had already undergone significant tensions, became even more apparent, forcing both countries to reconsider their positions in the international arena [6]. The conflict also increased the international community's attention to security issues in Europe, prompting the reform of defence alliances and searching for new approaches to military cooperation and diplomacy. There is a need for a new approach to international law and order that would consider both traditional and new challenges related to cyber security, hybrid wars, and the spread of information technologies [12]. On the other hand, the conflict contributes to the intensification of international discussions about the role of international organisations, such as the UN, NATO, and the EU, in the modern geopolitical context. Predominantly, the Russian military aggression against Ukraine has caused significant changes in international relations - old paradigms of interaction between states require revision, and new approaches are to be implemented in the context of the constant global changes. This creates opportunities for developing new forms of international cooperation but also poses complex challenges to the world community that require responsibility, flexibility, and innovation in approaches to international security and stability [5].

The modern features of the autocratic regime of the Russian Federation, including the use of war as a tool of foreign policy, have a profound impact on regional security and stability, strengthening confrontation with the West and causing international concern.

Hence, it is essential to consider the policy of median hedging of third parties, particularly Turkey.

Changes in geopolitical reality and growing threats of international terrorism affect the general nature of the Republic of Turkey's national security, significantly shifting the emphasis on its provision.

The problematic situation in the Middle East, related to the Arab-Israeli conflict, the explosive situation in Iraq, the aggravation of the situation around Syria and Iran, the growth of Kurdish separatism, the armed conflict in Ukraine, as well as the intensification of the activities of international terrorist organisations in the region influenced awareness in Ankara for its responsibility for ensuring not only national security but regional security [7].

Turkey's responsibility for regional security is discussed in the work “Strategic Depth” by A. Davutoglu, who believes that Turkey's national security issues go far beyond its borders due to its geographical location in the centre of Eurasia. According to the author, Turkey should guarantee security and stability within its borders and in neighbouring countries. Turkey's constructive role in ensuring order, strength, and security at the regional level will enable it to acquire strong positions at the international level.

Today, scientists consider Turkey's efforts in the field of guaranteeing national security and national stability from the perspective of the median hedging and note that its position is determined, first of all, by the country's geostrategic position, NATO membership, relations with major world powers, primarily with the USA, Russia, and EU countries as well as the desire to play the role of a leader in the Islamic world and to be a mediator in the resolution of regional conflicts [1].

Turkey's views on the problems of ensuring national security are outlined in the “Political Document on National Security” (Milli Guvenlik Siyaseti Belgesi), which is called the “red book” or “secret Constitution”. It formulates the main provisions of Turkey's national security concept alongside its country's leadership system of views on the content and main directions of domestic and foreign policy ensuring their effective implementation.

The modern concept of Turkey's national security strategy includes ethnopolitical and ethnopsychological factors and is based on the following principles:

- ensuring the guaranteed protection of the independence, territorial integrity, and the republican system of the state;

- application of effective measures to prevent crises and conflicts, both at the national and regional levels, which significantly minimises international tension;

- participation in the system of collective security, and fulfilment of obligations imposed on the Republic of Turkey within the scope of the collective agreement [10].

NATO membership is still a key element in guaranteeing Turkey's national security. It also emphasises Turkey's regional importance. Turkey is a Eurasian state whose foreign policy strategy has great potential and can influence the situation in the Middle East, the Balkans, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. It is especially highlighted that Turkey's policy in assuring national security should be proactive. In this regard, the task is to organise and carry out measures that can have a positive impact on regional security [8].

The socio-political block of Turkey's national security concept includes three fundamental principles:

- deterrence (or maintaining the "deterrence potential”, which allows eliminating threats to national security without the use of military force);

- creation of a favourable external environment (settlement of existing and prevention of new conflicts along the border perimeter);

- crisis management (early adoption of military and non-military measures to overcome threats caused by ethno-political, military, and humanitarian crises) [11].

The geostrategic and ethnopolitical analysis of the nature of global and regional threats led to the reviewing of the question regarding the role and place of Turkey in the global and regional security system, as well as the way to counter them.

Internal threats include radical Islamism, the activities of far-left groups, Kurdish separatism, and others. At the state level, the interrelationship between internal and "asymmetric” threats was emphasised, which include international terrorism, drug trafficking, illegal migration, human trafficking, the threat of nuclear proliferation in the region, the problem of the lack of water and natural resources, etc [13].

When determining the nature of external threats, Turkey does not consider neighbouring countries as a potential enemy, admitting that threats to national security may still arise from individual states. At the current stage, Turkey adheres to the principle of median hedging to counter them, which involves using political and diplomatic methods which are strengthened by the appropriate level of the state's defence capability and ensure its national stability.

Conclusion