China policy on Taiwan against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine War

PhD in Historical Sciences, Assosiate Professor.

Ternopil Volodymyr Hnatiuk National Pedagogical University, 46000,2 Maxym Kryvonos Str., Ternopil, Ukraine

Abstract. The relevance of the study is conditioned by the transformational trends in globalisation policy as a result of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, especially in the political relations of the People's Republic of China with Taiwan, which is one of the most important aspects of international security. The purpose of the study is to identify the characteristic features of the Taiwan issue. The following methodological approaches were used: functional, dogmatic, logical analysis, synthesis, deduction, method of legal hermeneutics, etc. The study found that political relations between China and Taiwan are largely determined by the party affiliation of the latter's leadership. Parallels were drawn between China-Taiwan and Russia-Ukraine relations, which are associated with the asymmetry of relations between the two countries. It was found that the Russia-Ukraine war serves as a factor that will have a further impact on the development and resolution of the conflict between Taiwan and China. The possibility of resolving the China-Taiwan war will depend on the results of the Russia-Ukraine war and the reaction of the international community, especially the United States of America, which is Taiwan's main ally. The study results showed that the factor that will help reduce the likelihood of China's intervention against Taiwan is Ukraine's victory in the Russia-Ukraine war; another factor is the active role of the international community in countering Russian aggression If the United States and Europe take a passive stance, this will act as a factor that will increase the tension between China and Taiwan The practical value of the findings allows for a causal analysis of the Taiwan issue and the identification of possible solutions to the conflict against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine war

Keywords: asymmetric relations, conflict, world order, globalisation, party affiliation

Introduction

The territory of Taiwan covers a part of the continent located on the south-eastern coast of the People's Republic of China. As noted by P. Rudolph, it has been in a state of global diplomatic isolation for more than 50 years, but has managed to become a country with the leading economic system in Asia (Rudolph, 2020). However, after Taiwan declared its independence from China, the China-Taiwan conflict began.

Despite the active policy of the international community, the permanent threat of an explosion and undermining security has had an impact on the entire Eurasian continent. According to J. Chen, one of the factors hindering the implementation of sufficient progress in resolving this security crisis is that it is taking place on the territory of post-Soviet Eurasia, and Euro-Atlantic and European actors are mediators in the settlement (Chen, 2019). Since East Asian actors are not involved in solving this issue, their participation is necessary, because it has an impact on geopolitical, geoeconomic, and security interests.

As noted by M. Lasater, the strategic conflict around Taiwan has quite a lot in common with modern Russia's aggression against Ukraine, which is revealed in that it should be seen as a “proxy war” between major geopolitical actors in Eurasia and major nuclear powers (Lasater, 2019). Based on this, it is necessary to consider historical, value-based, and geopolitical parallels, as this provides an opportunity to determine the most favourable ways to resolve conflicts.

First of all, the China-Taiwan and Russia-Ukraine conflicts are asymmetric in terms of the natural potential of the conflicting parties, which consists in the resource potential and military capabilities of the aggressor countries, namely, China and Russia.

According to Yu. Yeh, it is necessary to consider the historical factor; notably, during the Civil War of 1918-1922 and the national liberation struggle on the territory of the former Russian Empire, the main base of anti-Bolshevik resistance was the modern territory of Ukraine; whereas during the Civil War of 1945-1948 in China, Taiwan was the mainstay of resistance of anti-communist forces (Yeh, Wu, 2020). However, at that time, the Ukrainian People's Republic was defeated, but Taiwan has received support from the United States since 1949 and was able to resist the communist dictatorship of China (Yeh, Wu, 2020).

As noted by Yu. Chu, the specifics of nation-building processes are of particular interest (Chu, Ou, 2021). The peculiarity is that they are formed by national identity based on the emphasis of ethno-linguistic, ethno-religious, and ethno-cultural values in relation to the “other”, which occurs under the influence of value-based, cultural, and geopolitical factors. The national identity of the population of Taiwan and Ukraine is diverse, contradictory, and fluid (Chu, Ou, 2021). In particular, this can be seen in the changing dynamics of Taiwan's self-identification. According to S. Lakshika, in 1992, only 17.6% of respondents among the population identified themselves as Taiwanese, 25.5% as Chinese, and the rest - double self-identification; then in 2018, Taiwanese self-identification accounted for more than 60% of respondents among the population (Lakshika, 2022). According to D. Fuller, this should be singled out as a factor influencing the painful split in the orientations and sympathies of society and local politicians of a geopolitical nature (Fuller, 2021).

Based on the above, the prospect of negotiations between the OSCE, Europe, Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, and Asia deserves special attention in the context of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the China- Taiwan conflict. This provides an opportunity in the future to implement the Confucian concept of “harmonious peace” through the search for a “golden mean” in resolving the conflict, and will also be a positive factor in influencing the settlement of the strategic crisis in Ukraine and the development of a new political ethics in Eurasia. Resolution of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia in favour of the former will give Taiwan an advantage in the current China-Taiwan conflict.

Materials and Methods

Results

The founding of the PRC took place in 1911 during the Xinhai Revolution in mainland China (Eberhard, 2020). After the defeat of Mao Zedong's communist forces in 1949, the former central leadership, led by Kuomintang nationalist leader Chiang Kai-Shek, retreated to the island and declared the establishment of the Republic of China in Taiwan (Wei et al., 2021). In 1950, the leader of the Kuomintang declared himself president of the Republic of China in Taiwan and commander-in-chief of the island's armed forces, and also concentrated all power on its territory. Equally important is the fact that Taipei has been declared the “temporary” capital of the Republic of China (Wei et al., 2021).

The disintegration of the bipolar system and the transformation of the internal political character in Taiwan, characterised by the transition from an authoritarian to a democratic model of development, have provided an opportunity to reduce the level of tension in relations between China and Taiwan. However, the conflict experienced significant instability in the 21^st century, which is associated with the victory of representatives of various political forces in Taiwan. For example, at the beginning of the 21^st century, domestic political processes in Taiwan had a negative impact on both sides of the conflict (Wei et al., 2021). Thus, in March 2000, the representative of the Democratic Progressive Party, Chen Shui-bian, won the presidential election of the Republic of China and said that one of the main goals of his policy is to recognise the independence of the island (Chen Shui-bian wins..., 2022). Later, in August 2002, Shui-bian issued a statement calling for a referendum to recognise the island's independence (Chen Shui-bian wins..., 2022). Chen also stressed the need to pass a law that would grant Taiwan the right to self-determination. However, the official response to Beijing was negative; it was noted that the mainland and Taiwan are only part of China and the division of territorial integrity and sovereignty is unacceptable (China and Taiwan..., 2022).

Over time, China-Taiwan relations became less turbulent. This was conditioned by the election of Taiwan'snewly elected president, Ma Yingjeou, to a more moderate position for mainland China and Taiwan to reach a common compromise (Presidency of Ma Ying-jeou, 2022). Notably, Ying-jeou called the state the Republic of China, not Taiwan; this means that he recognises Chinese unity.

However, in 2016, China-Taiwan relations deteriorated again. This was conditioned by the fact that support for the Democratic Progressive Party increased in the elections, as Tsai Ing-wen defeated Kuomintang Chairman Eric Chu (President Tsai, 2022). One of the reasons for this is that the state of economic policy under Kuomintang's rule has worsened due to concerns that Ma Ying-jeou has made Taiwan's state structure more dependent on mainland China (President Tsai, 2022). In turn, Ing-wen expressed the hope to the population that tensions will decrease and Taiwan will continue to strengthen its national defence and demonstrate determination in action (President “Captain Taiwan” Tsai..., 2022).

In today's conditions, Taiwan continues to experience harassment from the PRC, especially as it is manifested by growing military and political pressure. One good reason is that the capture of Taiwan gives the PRC the opportunity to take control of the South China Sea, several islands, and access to the Pacific Ocean. However, the population of Taiwan confirms its determination to fight for the independence of the territory. In particular, after Tsai Ing-wen won the presidential election in 2020, the President rejected the PRC's application for unification and stressed that the democratic country and its democratic government never respond to threats (President “Captain Taiwan” Tsai..., 2022).

A survey of the population of Taiwan is of importance. It allows analysing existing positions and identifying their correlation in the context of determining the desire to be an independent state, unification with the PRC, maintain neutrality, or evade the answer (Fig. 1).

Figure 1. Survey of the population of Taiwan

Source: (Wei et al., 2021)

Based on the above data, it can be argued that the position of independence is held by the majority of the population; however, only 10.4% of respondents are in favour of any association with the PRC. Thus, this gives reason to believe that the political course of Taiwan and the population adheres to the position of the struggle for the independence of the island.

Notably, the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine is a factor that will have a further significant impact on the solution of the Taiwan issue. Considering the deployment of Russian troops to the Ukrainian borders in the winter of2021- 2022, the Taiwanese authorities closely monitored the situation (The Russian federation began..., 2022). Tsai Ing-wen expressed her position that she fully supports Ukraine (The President of Taiwan expresses “sympathy”..., 2022).

Notably, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is of great importance for Taiwan because it is similar to the China-Taiwan conflict. The country, which previously had great influence and control over the territory, assumes a military conquest of the island. The population does not have the ability to independently resist the PRC, so the Taiwanese authorities hope for the operational support of US troops, which is not guaranteed. Because of this, the Russia-Ukraine war is an important indicator in resolving the further conflict between Taiwan and China.

Similar in both conflicts are the methods of conquest used by the aggressor countries, namely, provocative actions of a military, political, and informational nature against the countries in whose territories they are interested. It is also important that the armies of Taiwan and Ukraine are relatively smaller than those of China and Russia, respectively. The data presented in Table 1 illustrate the military forces of Taiwan and China.

Table 1. Armed Forces of China and Taiwan

Source: The Military Balance, 2022

Based on the above data, it can be argued that the Armed Forces of Taiwan are less than 10 times smaller than the PRC. This applies especially to the ground forces, aviation, artillery, naval and air forces. However, in terms of the reserves, Taiwan exceeds China by 2 times.

The main goal of conflicts is the desire to achieve strategic goals by the aggressor countries. For example, the conquest of Taiwan gives the PRC the opportunity to exert further influence over Japan, the Philippines, and the U.S. territory in the Pacific for the purpose of taking over; however, the Russian occupation gives an advantage in exercising control over the Black Sea and access to vulnerable countries for further pressure, namely Bulgaria and Romania (The Military Balance, 2022).

The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, which took place on February 24, 2022, caused great concern among the Taiwanese authorities. Russia's actions on the European continent may become a factor that will “untie the hands” of the PRC in relation to Taiwan. This fact follows the Russian-Chinese rapprochement, as states actively conduct military exercises and implement cooperation aimed at weakening the leadership positions of the United States and strengthening their own influence in important regions (Bao et al., 2022).

This is confirmed by the announcement of a joint statement by Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping about their negative attitude to colour revolutions, US and other countries' interference in regional affairs, sanctions and the introduction of additional troops in Europe. The Russian authorities also recognised that Taiwan is a territory of the People's Republic of China and opposed the country's independence in any form (Xi Jinping suffers..., 2022).

However, according to Taiwan's intelligence, the Chinese authorities decided to postpone the invasion for some time, namely, while the president is Tsai Ing-wen, whose term ends in 2026 (Beijing puts probes..., 2022). Following the example of the Russia-Ukraine war, the Chinese authorities concluded that the war should not be taken lightly, so based on Russia's mistakes, they plan to improve their own army.

The Russia-Ukraine war attracts attention from both China and Taiwan, considering their understanding of the future prospects of a military conflict. The Chinese government has repeatedly stressed that there are no parallels between Ukraine and Taiwan, as it will always be an integral part of the mainland. The main difference between Taiwan and Ukraine is that the former is a self-proclaimed state, de jure is the territory of China, and de facto is not, however, the latter is an independent sovereign state recognised by the world.

Despite the range of differences conditioned by historical factors, geographical location, political and economic events, both states, namely Ukraine and Taiwan, have the same problem, which is the struggle for sovereignty and inviolability.

According to Joseph Wu, Taiwan's foreign minister, the island is threatened by a strong country (Foreign Minister..., 2022). Taiwan supports the position of Ukraine, which is accompanied by a list of actions. These include joining the Western sanctions, which include a USD 20 million restriction on semiconductor exports, providing financial and humanitarian support, and providing humanitarian support to refugees in coordination with other countries involved (Taiwan expands economic..., 2022).

An equally important fact is that in early March, a special account was created to which individuals and legal entities can contribute to help Ukraine; only in the first week, it raised about USD 20 million (Why Taiwanese are donating to Ukraine..., 2022). Most government officials also support Ukrainians; for example, President Tsai Ing-wen and other politicians decided to make a donation in the form of their monthly salaries, and presidential adviser Koo Kwang-ming donated USD 1 million (Why Taiwanese are donating to Ukraine..., 2022).

It is worth noting that Russia's aggressive actions against Ukraine have awakened the fighting spirit of the Taiwanese population. The powerful resistance of Ukraine's troops inspires them to confront China and defend the country's territorial integrity and independence, and encourages the authorities to address the issue of strengthening their own defence capabilities. This is also conditioned by the fact that the threat from the mainland is quite highly likely and depends to a large extent on the further development of events in Ukraine.

The current full-scale invasion of the Russian federation in Ukraine is an indicator for the entire civilized world and the ability of many states to put universal values above their own economic and political interests. Under these conditions, it is increasingly difficult for the PRC to balance between maintaining the image of a world-class country that adheres to the UN Charter and the principles of international law, supporting the Russian federation, and reducing the rate of defeat in the event of a clash with the West.

Notably, Taiwan and Ukraine will always have a clear critical asymmetry with the Russian federation through the prism of international political influence and the armed forces. Despite the objections of the Chinese authorities on the parallels between Ukraine and Taiwan, they are now quite obvious, since it is the results of the Russia-Ukraine war that will determine the further direction and steps of China in the conflict with Taiwan.

Based on the above, the problem of Taiwan has deep historical roots, and the resolution of the conflict affects the interests of the PRC and the United States. The China-Taiwan conflict is characterised by weakening or tension depending on the political forces in power on the island. The events of recent years have been characterised by a significant escalation, which has increased the likelihood of a threat of armed intervention by the PRC against Taiwan. The Russia-Ukraine war is a factor that will determine the further development of the conflict and the prospects for settlement. This is conditioned by the fact that Taiwan and Ukraine have asymmetric conflict relations with more powerful neighbours, namely China and Russia, respectively. Therefore, the victory of Ukraine and the active participation and policy of the United States will be factors that can reduce the likelihood of a China-Taiwan conflict; and, conversely, the passive policy of the United States and the defeat of Ukraine will encourage the PRC to use force to solve the Taiwan issue. Based on the fact that the Russia-Ukraine war is still ongoing and there is no specific outcome, it is impossible to provide an unambiguous forecast of the impact of the war between the Russian federation and Ukraine on the Taiwan issue. One of the ways to increase the level of national security of Taiwan now is to maintain interstate ties, increase the state's defence capability, and attract allies in a possible war. Further study will be aimed at determining the impact of the rus- sia-Ukraine war after its end on the current China-Taiwan conflict and identifying future ways to resolve the conflict depending on the outcome of the war between the Russian federation and Ukraine.

Discussion

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Андрій Грубінко

Д-р історичних наук, професор.

Західноукраїнський національний університет, 46009, вул. Львівська, 11, Тернопіль, Україна

Ірина Федорів