Geopolitical dynamics of Greater Eurasia

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Geopolitical dynamics of Greater Eurasia

А.I. Loiko

The geopolitical dynamics of Greater Eurasia is described. The reasons for the concentration of attention of political elites to the eastern vector are shown. This interest reflected the growing role of new players in the global space, as well as the unwillingness of the old geopolitical leaders to recognize the new social and economic reality. In the dynamics of Greater Eurasia, there are different interests of states, as well as their ability to find common ground. This feature is significant distinguishes the new generation of states from the old generation of states in the Western world. New alliances are being formed. At the same time, the logistics of the international division of labor is being transformed.

Keywords: Greater Eurasia, geopolitical dynamics, West, East, new generation of states, old generation of states.

А.И. Лойко

ГЕОПОЛИТИЧЕСКАЯ ДИНАМИКА БОЛЬШОЙ ЕВРАЗИИ

В статье описывается геополитическая динамика Большой Евразии. Называются причины концентрации внимания политических элит на восточном векторе. Этот интерес отражает растущую роль новых игроков в глобальном пространстве, а также нежелание старых геополитических лидеров признавать новую социальноэкономическую реальность. В динамике Большой Евразии проявляются разные интересы государств, а также их способность находить точки соприкосновения. Эта особенность существенно отличает новое поколение государств от старого поколения государств западного мира. Формируются новые союзы. В то же время трансформируется логистика международного разделения труда.

Ключевые слова: Большая Евразия, геополитическая динамика, Запад, Восток, новое поколение государств, старое поколение государств.

Introduction

Under the greater Eurasia we will understand Europe and Asia, as well as, taking into account the Arab and European cultural factor, the territory of North Africa (Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco). Lesser Eurasia is usually understood as the territory of the former Soviet Union and related integration projects.

Geographically, greater Eurasia has landscape barriers in the form of mountain ranges and mountainous countries, as well as deserts and swamps. These barriers created the basis for the local features of the formation and evolution of traditional civilizations. Nevertheless, there were active economic and cultural contacts between them. Their expression was the trade logistics of the Great Silk Road. Its land part was passed and described by Marco Polo. This logistics has existed since the Roman Empire. Chinese civilization specialized in the production of silk. The technology was carefully guarded, which made China a monopoly in this type of marketable product. Silk was in demand in Central Asia and in the Roman Empire, which lasted until 1453. In the opposite direction, supplies of horses and furs were carried out to China.

The maritime part of the Great Silk Road was under the control of Arab merchants. This situation persisted until the era of great geographical discoveries. During this era, European trading companies achieved monopoly control over maritime logistics. However, unlike the Arabs, they sought to impose colonial status on the overseas territories of Asia. As a result, Greater Eurasia was transformed by the efforts of Europeans into Europe and Asia with their characteristic functions of a metropolis and a colony. This model of relations was not accepted by Afghanistan, China and Japan. They localized and limited contacts with European trading companies as much as possible.

The Muscovite state followed the path of Europeanization and, through the efforts of Peter I, was transformed into the Russian Empire. As a result, Russia has become more consistent with the standards of European culture and the metropolis. The Ottoman Turks, although they came as close as possible to the European region and created an independent state, by the adoption of Islam marked themselves as a state belonging to Asia.

Theoretical basis

The presence within Greater Eurasia of cities of civilizations, and then empires, reflected the situation of a competitive environment between local institutional structures [1]. Wars were the main form of resolving these contradictions. They were accompanied by the death of traditional civilizations and the formation of architecture of state structures. At the end of the 19th century, military conflicts concentrated in the European region of Greater Eurasia. This was due to the fact that Asia became the territory of European colonies. As a result, territorial claims for the redistribution of the territories of Greater Eurasia were resolved by the metropolises in the European region. The competitive environment of monarchies and empires created the conditions for the First World War.

At the same time, the European region of Greater Eurasia became a place of confrontation between the formational ideologies of capitalism and communism. The conceptual analysis of these ideologies was carried out by K. Marx and F. Engels. The functioning of the market economy (capitalism) is described by them in the work "Capital". They formulated the perspective of a communist society as a program of political struggle (communist globalization). The Russian Empire was chosen as a springboard for this globalization, which in 1922 was transformed by the communists into the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.

An alternative to communist globalization was formulated by the German National Socialists, who, based on the theory of racial superiority, decided to create a totalitarian state within Greater Eurasia, including the territories of Russia and India. Fascism is the ideology of the petty bourgeoisie, which adheres to the ideology of radical nationalism. As a result, according to the verdict of this ideology, Jews, gypsies, and sexual minorities were subject to physical destruction. In the thirties of the twentieth century, the National Socialists democratically came to state power in Germany. A little earlier, supporters of this ideology came to power in Italy and Spain. Their ally was monarchical Japan, as well as the monarchies of Bulgaria, Hungary, and Romania. geopolitical greater eurasia

As a result, in the European region with the prospect of expanding into the territory of Greater Eurasia, a threat of military confrontation between states arose. In the European region, the German authorities became the initiators of territorial expansion. They used the thesis about the unification of ethnic Germans in one state. They carried out the Anschluss of Austria and occupied the Sudetes in the Czech Republic. Japan did not consider it necessary to use any justification for territorial expansion within China. As a result, World War II began. In the European region, the starting date for the start of the Second World War is September 1, 1939, when German troops invaded Poland. On September 17, 1939, in order to prevent the advance of German troops into the borders of Belarus and Ukraine, the armed forces of the USSR launched an offensive in a westerly direction. The German and Soviet armies came into contact near the city of Brest. There was no direct military clash between them, and a non-aggression pact was concluded. He was needed by Germany for the offensive in France and the British Isles. In 1941, German troops launched an offensive through the USSR to British India. But in order to reach the borders of India, the German army had to achieve the surrender of the USSR. But the lightning war with the USSR did not work out. It dragged on as it transformed into the Great Patriotic War of the Soviet people against fascism. As a result, Great Britain was able to retain its sovereignty.

Awareness of the exclusive role of the armed forces of the USSR in World War II hastened the creation of an anti-Hitler coalition of states. This coalition included Great Britain, the USSR, the USA, France and Australia, India and Canada, which were part of the British Commonwealth of Nations. Their units participated in battles in North Africa and the Pacific region. World War II ended with the surrender of Japan.

After the Second World War, the criterion of ideological and economic demarcation began to dominate in the European region. The United States, within the framework of the ideological and military- political confrontation of the USSR, implemented the Marshall Plan and quickly restored the infrastructure of the liberal market economy of Western Europe. They created the military-political structure of NATO. In Asia, the United States limited itself to bilateral military agreements with Japan and South Korea. They also used the results of the Chinese Civil War to support Chai Kai Shih and his army based on the island of Taiwan.

The USSR, in opposition to the US plans, created the structures of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) and the military-political organization of the Warsaw Pact. As a result, two polar structures of the European region were formed. There was a cold war between them. In the Far East, the USSR supported the PRC, the DPRK and the SRV.

After the Second World War, the European metropolises were significantly weakened and could not carry out a colonial policy. As a result, the collapse of the colonial system began in Asia and North Africa. It expanded throughout Africa. After the formation of independent states, civil wars, the architecture of the nation states of the Middle and Far East, Central and Southeast Asia began to take shape.

The Arab states have created a regional Islamic organization. Significant natural energy resources have made a number of Middle Eastern states leading in the OPEC economic organization. The states of Southeast Asia created ASEAN. The organization combines military-political and economic integration tasks. After the disintegration of British India into a number of states, the Republic of India began to demonstrate independence in matters of economic and political relations. For this, it has reasons in the form of a large population, the size of the territory and economic potential. China has followed the same path. It has the resources of a large population, territory, and economic potential.

The demarcation of the state borders of Asian countries took place in complex conflict conditions. As a result, conditions have arisen for long-term border disputes between India and Pakistan, India and China, Israel and Palestine, Turkey and Syria, Turkey and Iraq, Israel and Lebanon, Israel and Syria, Israel and Egypt. Added to these disputes are the ambitions of regional leadership. They are typical for Iran, China, Saudi Arabia and Turkey [2].

The Cold War with the collapse of the USSR continued against the Russian Federation and China. By this time, the energy infrastructure of the USSR (Russian Federation) in the segments of coal, oil and natural gas was integrated into the regional economy of the European Union through oil and gas pipelines. This Union is represented by the states of Western, Central and Eastern Europe, as well as the former Soviet republics of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia [3].

The reason for the aggravation of the Cold War between the United States and the Russian Federation was the thesis of American experts on the need to achieve a complete victory of the liberal ideology during the Cold War over the Russian Federation and the PRC. The occasion was given by Ukraine, which was never able to approach the standards of liberal democracy because of the stakes on the ideology of neoNazism. But a big conflict did not work out, since Russia relied on a special operation to send troops to ensure the security of national borders and the ethnic Russian population. Israel and Turkey have been using this practice for many years. Therefore, the United States failed to convince Greater Eurasia, the African and Latin American regions that Ukraine means more than what happens in these regions on an almost constant basis. The United States used a similar practice in Latin America. France enjoys in Africa.

But unlike the special operations of the armies of other states, the special operation of the Russian troops is accompanied by US and European Union sanctions against the economies of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation. This is a test for Greater Eurasia. It consists in the choice for the majority of developing states between the ideology of liberalism that is far from them and their own limited food and energy resources. It is easier to pass such a test to the states of the golden billion, but even there the population is under pressure from rising prices and inflation.

Method: Greater Eurasia and two models of its dynamics

In further consideration of the internal dynamics of Greater Eurasia, we will proceed from the fact that the achievement of consensus in this space depends on the European Union, the Russian Federation, China, India, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Iran and ASEAN [4]. Japan and South Korea give priority to the Pacific partnership. A similar thesis could be attributed to the European Union, if we do not take into account its close commodity logistics with China and energy logistics with the Russian Federation.

So, the main thesis of considering the internal dynamics of Greater Eurasia is the demarcation function of two models of its dynamics. One model, on which the economic systems of the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq, Iran, and China were formed, reflects the potential of industrial, which have already become classic, technologies based on organic energy resources of oil, coal and natural gas. These resources are being transformed into automotive fuel and consumer goods. Commodity-based economies supply large volumes of oil, natural gas, and food raw materials to economies with high added value. In return, they receive investments.

China has occupied its niche in the international division of labor thanks to industrial outsourcing technologies. On its territory, transnational corporations, motivated by cheap and sufficiently skilled labor, have created production facilities. The United States and the European Union have become the main market for the sale of mass-produced goods within the PRC. This model of relationships between the main business participants suited everyone, despite ideological differences [5]. But the United States soon noticed that China began to accumulate significant financial resources that did not return to the North American market due to the low standard of living of the people of China. The deficit in US trade with China has also become a problem. China's exports to the United States began to significantly exceed China's imports from the United States. This became the basis for the start of trade wars between the United States and China. This situation was treated more calmly in the European Union. This situation was mitigated by China's Belt and Road project. China has invested in it. These funds have been used to update the continental and maritime logistics of commodity flows.

With the advent of supporters of the green economy in the United States, an important role in the evolution of Greater Eurasia began to be played by an economic development model that involves the rejection of outsourcing technologies and, as a result, the return of transnational corporations to the territory of the United States and the European Union. This return is justified by the formation of a barrier environment in the space of globalization and significant risks for logistics. Another argument is the rise in the cost of labor in the industrial periphery.

Great hopes are associated with the implementation of industry 4.0 programs, the industrial Internet, society 5.0. As a result, the economies and societies of the United States, Japan and the European Union are expected to reach the level of ecosystems provided with their own resources and investments. Events in Ukraine are called upon to accelerate the demarcation of the two spaces of economic activity.

Results

There is a high probability that opponents of the green economy will return to state power in the US and the European Union. This means that Russia will remain part of the energy infrastructure of the European Union. A more complex economic relationship will remain between the US and China. This is due to the fact that globalization is undergoing another transformation.

The history of globalization began two million years ago, when the process of human settlement on the planet began. It was an environment without barriers. The transformation of the dynamics of globalization took place after the Neolithic Revolution, when humanity moved to agriculture and the construction of cities. The settled way of life has become a barrier factor for the migration of the population in the space of the planet. This barrier factor did not apply to nomadic peoples. As the functioning of the Great Silk Road showed, barriers did not apply to international trade and the formation of an international division of labor.

The second transformation of globalization processes occurred in the era of great geographical discoveries. The mass migration of the European population to the New World and the colonization of Asia, America, Africa, and the Pacific region began. The Europeans failed to convert Afghanistan, China, Ethiopia, and Japan to colonial status. Conditions for maritime trade arose. The Netherlands took advantage of these conditions. Antwerp and Amsterdam have become cities with global economic ties.

During the first industrial revolution, the Netherlands gave way to Britain as a leader in international trade. The period of 1870-1913 stands out in particular, when the transcontinental commodity logistics of trade contacts was formed. In the 20th century, additional resources of globalization emerged in the form of the activities of financial and industrial groups. This globalization barrier environment began to create a political ideology. The Russian Empire and Mongolia left the global space of the market economy in 1917. After the Second World War, the states of Asia, Latin America, and Africa left the market economy space.

However, after some time, globalization again became a trend. Two factors contributed to this. One of them reflected the overcoming of the ideological barrier by transnational corporations and the political leadership of the PRC. The state ideology of the PRC was no longer the reason for the absence of liberal investors in the economic space of the country. As a result, a model of global outsourcing has been formed. She suited transnational corporations and the leadership of the PRC. Internet technologies have become the second factor of globalization.

Discussions

The COVID-19 pandemic marked the beginning of a new modification of globalization [6]. The reason was the vulnerability of global supply chains and industries. The priority of TNCs turned out to be the diversification of supplies and the location of enterprises in North America and the European Union. Another reason was the fact that the cost savings associated with offshore production are offset by a number of factors, such as long lead times leading to higher inventory costs and poor service levels. Labor and transportation costs are taken into account, as well as fluctuations in interest rates, exchange rates and tariffs. Thus, the cost of labor in the PRC almost tripled between 2000 and 2016. In North America and the European Union, this figure did not change. The degree of industrial automation has increased. This minimized the advantage of offshore facilities. As a consequence, companies have begun moving towards partial on shoring. It involves outsourcing business processes to another company located in the same country as the customer.

Companies are taking a diversified approach to sourcing. This opens up the possibility for them to react quickly in response to political and epidemiological factors.

Between 2008 and 2019, international trade in relation to global GDP fell by five percentage points. Many barriers to trade were erected. Global long-term investment flows halved between 2016 and 2019. Foreign direct investment between China and the United States in 2017 amounted to almost $30 billion a year. In 2021, they were reduced to $5 billion. The barrier environment was created by the confluence of economic rivalry with political and moral rivalry. First, people are driven by thymotic desires. These are needs to be seen, respected, appreciated. People felt that their countries were being leveled and their national honor was under threat. In the heyday of globalization, multilateral organizations and global corporations eclipsed nation states. Migration pressure has strengthened the citizens of the states, their attachment to their own cultural values. People are driven by the desire for order. And only the nation-state can provide it. In this situation, democracies seem less stable and authoritarian regimes seem more stable. Autocratic regimes are serious economic rivals of the West. They account for 60 percent of patent applications.

In 2020, these governments invested $9 trillion in equipment and infrastructure. Western countries have invested 12 trillion dollars. The idea of barrier-free economic globalization was that everyone produces and sells to others what they have. It makes no sense to compete for a resource that can be purchased in a free competitive market. With a tough barrier environment of economic globalization, there is a reduction and rupture of international trade relations. Buying anything at a fair price is impossible. The reason is the shortage and rise in price of goods that the country cannot produce on its own.

Conclusions

The pandemic has created a barrier environment in the space of globalization. States have switched to a strategy to reduce dependence on imports. In 2020-2021, there was a breakdown in trade ties. The interdependence of national economies has become a source of fear. It has become obvious that in the global world there is a complete lack of solidarity between peoples in the fight against a common threat. As a result, the international division of labor breaks up into opposing economic regions. Economic inequality between these regions is decreasing. So, if in 2000 the share of China, India and the Russian Federation accounted for 15 % of world GDP, and the US, EU and Japan accounted for more than 47 %. In 2020, both of these blocks were at the level of 31.5 %. The paradox of economic leveling is that this leveling does not remove the problem of migratory pressure on Western countries. More and more citizens of these countries oppose globalization.

The emotional and ideological transition to a new model of globalization was not supported by economic analytics. First of all, the political elites of the European Union faced difficulties.

Governments prioritize reliability over efficiency. They direct investments to create production capacities in the national space.

References

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2. Oliver Jutersonke, Kazushige Kobayashi, Keith Krause, Xinyu Yuan (2021) Norm Contestation and Normative Transformation in Global Peacebuilding Order (s): The Cases of China, Japan, and Russia. International Studies Quarterly № 7.

3. Howard, J.A. (2000) Social Psychology of Identities / J A. Howard // Annual review of sociology, № 26. P. 367-393.

4. Cole M. (2003). Culture and cognitive science. Outlines. // Critical Social Studies, 5(3), 3-15.

5. Kitayama S., Huff S. (2015). Cultural neuroscience: Connecting culture, brain, and genes. Emerging Trends in the Social and Behavioral Sciences. New York, NY: John Wiley. pp. 1-16

6. Marston H.R., Shore L, White P.J. (2020). How does a (Smart) Age-Friendly Ecosystem Look in a Post-Pandemic Society? // International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health - 17(21):8276. https://doi.org/ 10.3390/ijerph17218276

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