Concept and implementation of directed migration

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CONCEPT AND IMPLEMENTATION OF DIRECTED MIGRATION

Semenkova M.A.,

National Defense University of Ukraine "Ivan Chernyakhovsky"

The article studies the ways political actors use to direct the migration processes for their further use as a foreign policy instrument, including the ones that are used in the hybrid war context. The author of the article introduces the directed migration concept and substantiates the difference between directed migration and migration policy. The main differences lie in subjectivity, political purpose, the degree of openness, the existence of legislation framework. The article defines the characteristics of the migration processes that are affected by the political actors: number of migrants and their qualitative composition, the directions of their movement, the migrants' behaviour in the new place of living. The author states these characteristics are compatible with the three stages of migration process. Among the present theories and theoretical models, the author identifies the ones that form the framework for directing the migration: the gravity theory of migration, the Push-Pull theoretical model, the theory of migration networks. Within the bounds of every theory the author gives the examples of activities the political actor can resort to in order to direct the migration. The author states that the political actor can combine the migration directing activities from different theories and theoretical models. On the other hand it can be sufficient to direct migration only at certain stages of migration processes. As the separate issue the article explores the role of the modern means of mass information and communication as well as the new media in directing the migration. The author concluded that political actor has to control and influence migration in a hidden way to use the directed migration as an effective instrument of international policy. So it shouldn't betray itself or its strategic goals. Alternatively, the use of measures and means of influence can be explained with the plausible motives.

Keywords: directed migration, migration policy, hybrid conflict, theories of migration, the means of mass information and communication

migration processes hybrid war foreign policy instrument

The peculiarities of contemporary migration processes as well as the new approaches to the foreign policy confrontation predispose the interests of the political actors to use the migration processes as the instrument of the hybrid influence. In so doing political actors consider the hybrid influence as the combination of the activities, mostly the non-military ones, deliberately used in the hybrid war context, that lead to the change of the characteristics and status of the object of the hybrid influence and change of the course of conflict.

The objective of the article is to study the ways the political actor can direct the migration processes. To achieve the objective we have to fulfill the following research tasks:

- to present the definition of directed migration and substantiate the difference of the directed migration from the migration policy;

- to identify the principal parameters of international migration processes, that can be influenced by the political actor;

- to define the theories of migration that can serve as a theoretical base for the directed migration;

- to determine the feasible measures actor can take in order to influence the migration' parameters.

The influence of the international migration on the position of the countries and regions, on their economic, cultural, socio-political development is well-studied in the scientific literature. However the complexity of such influence as well as the change of the migration processes context induce the researches to study more and more areas of human activities affected by migration. All the available resources consider the migration processes as the independently initiated processes. But the contemporary level of the technologies influencing the public consciousness as well as the existence of the modern sophisticated means of mass information and communication are supposed to entail the deliberate directing of the migration processes by the political actors in order to reach their hybrid war goals.

Directed migration processes are not formed spontaneously based on the existing political, economic, social and other conditions but are deliberately initiated and influenced by the political actor.

First of all we have to substantiate the difference between the directed migration and migration policy. Migration policy is usually treated as the system of measures aimed to achieve the necessary intensity and composition of the migration flows. The migration policy is, on the one hand, aimed at the planning of the population movement, on the other hand - fulfills the function of the population movement control and is considered as the state's reaction on the spontaneous movement of people [5, p. 68]. As both the state migration policy and the directing of the migration flows for their further use as the instrument of the hybrid influence envisage the measures to regulate the migration behaviour of people at all stages of the migration process, we can define the following distinctions between them, that allows us to classify the directed migration as a separate phenomenon.

The first and the most important distinction is the objective. According to the definition proposed by O. Malynovska the objective of the state migration policy is “to provide the organized, safe and non-conflict character of the migration processes” and “to use the positive potential of migration for the development” [5, p. 65]. G. Glushchenko emphasizes the fact that the objective of the migration policy is to provide the dynamic development of both the country of the migrants' origin and the country of migrants' destination [1]. Alternatively, the objective of directing the migration is the acquiring the new characteristics by the migration that will provide its effective use as an instrument of the hybrid influence in the hybrid war context.

The second distinction is the general scope of the taken measures. According to V. Iontsev's definition the migration policy constitutes the system of the political measures, regulations, legislative acts and interstate agreements states regarding the migration flows [4, p. 8]. However, directing the migration processes is carried out mostly through the indirect methods, inter alia by creating the conditions when people are forced to migrate or when the positive expectations towards migration take place.

In its part the content of the measures stipulates the third distinction - the degree of the openness of the taken measures. Contrary to the state military policy that envisages the full openness of its development and implementation, the directing of migration processes in order to use them as the instrument of hybrid influence is carried out in a covert way. It gives the impression of the spontaneous nature of the directed migration processes.

The forth distinction is the subjectivity of regulation. The migration policy can be carried out by the states and the international organizations, but directing the migration processes in the hybrid war context can be also carried out by the non-state actors. Besides, the migration policy of the particular states is extended on the migration processes that are covered by the state's jurisdiction, but directing the migration can be carried out by the actor that is neither the country of origin nor the destination country, or even nor the country at all. However it can be carried out by the actor that has the aim to achieve its own foreign policy interests and clandestinely interferes into the migration processes that relates to the third countries.

For the effective use of the migration processes the subject has to be able to direct and control at least three main parameters of the international migration processes:

1. The number of migrants and the composition of migration flows

Depending on its objectives in the hybrid war context the foreign policy actor can be interested in forming the migration flow that consists of the certain number of migrants. Besides, the actor can be also interested in the migrants with the specific characteristics, inter alia in migrants of certain age, in migrants that represent certain ethnic or religious group, in migrants that have the specific professional knowledge or skills, have the combat experience, etc. For example, the ethnic and religious identity is important when the political actor is interested in the inspiration of ethnic or religious conflict in the country or region where the migrants are directed. On the other hand if the actor has the aim to worsen the competitive advantage of the country, there can be the reason to inspire or force the emigration of scientists, qualified specialists, etc, mostly young and middle-aged. In some cases the combination of different key characteristics can be also important.

2. The direction of the migrants ' movement

In accordance with the purposes of the hybrid influence the movement of the migrants can be directed to either leave or settle the certain area. In different conditions both mass emigration and mass immigration can significantly influence the development of the country and its security situation first of all because they are able to decrease or increase the number of population. If migrants have the certain characteristics, the spectrum of the consequences of such migration for both country of origin and country of destination can be much wider. For example, the gradual settlement of the part of the country, especially nearby the state border with the people that moved from the neighbour country and, at the same time, represent its titular ethnic group creates the preconditions for the development of separatists or irredentists tendencies. In the context of the hybrid warfare there can be reasonable to direct the representatives of the ethnic or religious group to the country, where they can contribute the increase of the conflict potential of the population.

3. The behaviour of migrants and/or locals in the new place of migrants ' living

Having the possibility to change this parameter, the political actor is able to create the situation in the target country that is necessary for him for achieving the political goals. For example, if the increasing of the migration conflictogenity level in the recipient country for the further destabilization of this country is considered by the political actor as the hybrid influence objective, the actor can focus its efforts on the formation and heightening the feelings of resentment, frustration among migrants and/or among local people. Besides, these feelings can be both inculcated artificially or can appear spontaneously if political actor takes the measures for the artificial creation of the conditions and factors that are able to cause the resentment among the population.

Parameters that have to be managed and controlled correlate with the directed migration stages of the use of migration processes: the formation of flows - the direction of flows - the migrants' behaviour in the new place of living. The above also correlates with the three stages of migration process, proposed in 1987 by L. Rybakovsky. He defined the first stage as the formation of the flows, the second stage - the movement, the third - the migrants' living in a new environment [6, p. 128]. Actor can manage and control all the parameters as well as only some of them. For example, in the context of hybrid warfare it could be reasonable to organize the formation of the migration flow with the necessary qualitative and quantitative characteristics and direct them to the certain country or region. The arrival of these migrants to the right place is able to influence the sequence of events in a way the political actor is interested in but without the direct interference of the actor. On the other hand the political actor can start influencing the migration processes when the migrants live in the new place and in the new environment, or after the migration flows have formed spontaneously.

To study the possibility of the migration processes to be directed we have to understand the roots and factors of their formation and movement. We have also to be aware of the mechanisms of the self-reproduction and sustainability of migration processes. That's why it is reasonable to resort to the theories of migration that have been already recognized by the scientific community. Famous researcher of the migration issues V. Iontsev identified more than 45 approaches, theories and concepts of migration [3, p. 34]. The prevailing majority of them, including the historical and structural approach, neoclassic theory, world- systems theory, the theory of migration systems, the system of migration transition, theory of transnationalism and transnational communities, the theory of human capital, theory of inverse relationship of economic cycles - suggest the influence of the significant and the deep-seated factors on the sequence of the migration processes. The artificial reproduction of such factors is impossible or needs the extremely substantial resources and a lot of time. Among such factors there can be the following: the civilizational changes, the changes of the technological paradigm, the changes in the structure of the economy, the change of the level of economic inequality between countries and regions, the formation of the global labour markets and the capital markets, the modernization of the society, the progress in the development of transport and means of communication, the integration of the countries into the political and economic system, etc.

At the same time, there are some factors of migration the political actor is able to create in the modern conditions. These factors are contained in the following theories and theoretical models of migration:

- Gravity model of migration;

- Pull-push migration theory;

- Theory of migration networks.

According to these theories and models the migration processes have sensibility to the situational changes. Much attention is given in these theories to the human dimension that now can be effectively influenced by the modern technologies as well as to other factors that can be relatively easily reproduced and that have quick effect. Based on the mentioned theories we can anticipate in what way the foreign policy actor can effectively influence the parameters of migration processes at all stages.

Gravity model of migration is the theoretical model, developed by S. Stouffer and G. Zipf, that explains the reasons and motives of migration proceeding from the characteristics of the politically organized areas (countries, regions, cities), and the peculiarities of the interaction between them. According to S. Stouffer “the number of people, who move to certain distance, is directly proportional to the number of the life prospects in the new place of living and is inversely proportional to the number of circumstances that complicate the relocation [11, p. 846]. As the complicating circumstances Stouffer considered the cost of moving, the legislative restrictions regarding the entering or exit, insufficient awareness of the potential migrants, negative attitude of locals to migrants, etc. In its part G. Zipf pointed that the “intensity of migration flows between two objects depends on the distance between them and, in certain extent, on other characteristics of the objects, inter alia the population, the economic capabilities in the country of migrants' origin and the country of migrants' destination”. This theory complies with the Zipf's “principle of the minimum efforts”. It means that if people have the opportunity to choose the sequence of actions, they choose the one that requires the minimum efforts and expences” [12, p. 573].

Accordingly, the political actor can increase or decrease the number of the circumstances that can complicate the people's relocation. As a result the number of migrants can be increased or decreased. Besides, the percentage of the certain categories of migrants in terms of their professional, ethnic, religious identification can be increased or decreased too. For example, if the actor is interested in the formation of the flow of specialists in the sphere of high technologies in order to increase the competitive advantages of one country and at the same time to decrease the competitive advantages of another country in the framework of the planned or existing hybrid warfare that stipulates the use of such technologies, the political actor can create the conditions for the migration of such specialists. Besides, the interested country can introduce the quotas for the tuition-free education for the representatives of the country the destructive actions are supposed to be taken against. There can be also given the opportunity for the employment of these specialists after their graduation on advantageous terms. Such actions are able to stimulate the movement of the specialists. As another example we can mention the establishment of the visa-free regime. Being treated as a symbol of the strengthening of the friendly relations between the states, it can play the catalytic role in the loss of human capital, and, consequently, in the loss of the competitive advantages by the country that is characterized by the relatively low living standards.

As an interesting example of creating the conditions for the relocation of people we can give the intensive and large-scale pasportization of the sitizens of other countries, mostly the bordering ones. To our mind the obtaining of the citizenship by the large number of people that permanently live in their country can be also treated as a sort of migration. As a result of the pasportization, in the certain country the considerable number of citizens of another country appears. In such a way the country, that renders the citizenship, extends its influence.

Within the Push-Pull theoretical model the migration of people is explained by the factors, that encourage people to leave the permanent place of living and contributes their movement to another place. The foundation for this model was laid by American sociologist E. Lee. In his article “The theory of migration” he pointed that the person's decision to migrate depends on the interaction of the groups of positive and negative factors both in the country of origin and in the country of destination [8]. The examples of the pull factors are the following: the demand in the labour market, availability of the land resources, economic opportunities, political freedoms, etc; the examples of the push factors are: the rapid population growth, low employment rate, the decrease of the number and worsening of the quality of the state social care, the restrictions of the civil freedoms, political instability, ecological problems, etc. One of the most effective factors of migration including the cross-border one is the armed conflict that threatens the health and security of population.

Therefore, the artificial reproducing of the pull factors in one particular country and/or the push factors in another country contribute the intensification of population movement from the first country to the latter one. Thus the maximum intensity of the movement is supposed to be achieved when two groups of factors are reproduced simultaneously. For example, in order to reproduce the unemployment of the specialists of a particular sphere as the push factor, the political actor can buy the enterprises of this sphere or establish the control over them, then stop their work or lessen the production output. The political actor can at the same time implement the protectionist measures towards the production of these enterprises, aggressively promoting their goods in the world market, etc. It will inevitably lead to the dismissal of the particular sphere's employees in the first country and to the increased demand for such employees in the latter one.

As the example of the effective push factor there can be given the ecological one. Natural disasters, the gradual worsening of the ecological situation as well as the climate change lead to the ecological/environmental migration. By the end of 2019 about 5,1 million people lived beyond the borders of their country or region as a consequence of the ecological pressures [7, p. 2], but by the middle of 2020 the number of people displaced because of the ecological reasons reached 9,8 million [7, p. 2].

In the hybrid war context the ecological factor of migration takes on particular importance. Due to the scientific progress and new technologies it becomes possible to create the flows of ecological migrants. In particular, the purposeful man-made technological non-military influence on the sites of biosphere and space is able to cause the natural disasters, weather and climate change, ozone depletion, destruction of ecological systems, people's physical and mental health impairment. In such a way the unfavorable conditions for people's lives force them to leave the permanent place of living. In the context of our article it is important to mention that the environmental conditions can be influenced remotely, that opens up the opportunities for the secret warfare [7, p. 21]. For instance, there already exists the technical possibility for artificial depletion of the ozone layer, clear the fog and clouds, initiate the earthquakes, create the tidal waves, influence the tropical cyclones, etc [2, p. 20].

Theory of migration networks explains in what way the social ties that emerge inside the migrants ' community as well as between migrants and their families and friends in their homeland contributes generating and reproducing the migration processes. In the context of directed migration the creation of the migration networks as well as the interference into the networks that already exist makes it possible for the political actor to direct the migration processes that are covered by these networks. Over the past years the complicated technological conditions emerged for the migration networks to start functioning online. It enables the political actor, that owns the informational and psychological instruments, successfully influence the characteristics and directions of migration processes.

According to the definition given by Douglas Massey the migration network is the complex of interpersonal relations that connect migrants, former migrants, potential migrants both in the countries of origin and countries of destination [9, p. 448]. To his opinion the migration networks contributes the reduction of financial costs as well as the social and emotional loss. As soon as the number of the migration ties inside the network reaches the critical level migration becomes sustainable. The migrants that have already settled in a new place help the newcomers and act as the facilitators. It reduces the risks and expenditures of the potential migrants as they give them the necessary information, help them with travel, accommodation and employment, alleviate their psychological adaptation in the new environment. Eventually the social and economic infrastructure of migration is created. It incorporates the places of worship, shops, cafes, clubs, professional organizations, etc. Thereby the migrants continue moving to the certain place of destination. For example according to the results of the research of the migration from Mexico to USA in 1970-s, 90% of questioned migrants said that they had acquired the American citizenship due to the family and professional ties [10].

In the framework of the theory of migration networks it is the contemporary level of technological development in general and the information technologies in particular that enable not only to initiate and sustain migration but to influence its routes. Thus, it makes possible to direct migration in all the stages: the formation of migration flows, their directions and the migrants ' behaviour in the new place of living.

For the last decade we have observed the pervasive involvement of people into the virtual world and the world of social networks, messengers and different platforms where people can freely express the own opinions and influence the opinions of other people. The principle of how the social networks are built, is similar to the principles of the migration networks are. Moreover the migrants, their family members and friends, different institutions and agencies are the elements of both migration networks and virtual social networks. Besides, it is usually the young and middle-aged active people who are the active Internet users and, at the same time, constitute the majority of migrants.

The methodological basis for the hidden directing of the migration processes with the use of virtual social networks is the people's conscience manipulation. The goal of manipulation is usually considered as taking the necessary decision by the object. This manipulation can be carried out in any socio and cultural environment and can be considered as the extraterritorial instrument to control the people minds. It encourages the social networks users to act according to the imposed models of behaviour.

Directing the migration processes based on the pull-push model or the gravitation model is conducted by creating the real conditions for the required migration behaviour of people. However, directing the migration processes that is based on the theory of migration networks envisages the hidden formation of the migration behaviour due to the creation of the ideas in people's minds about the existence of the appropriate conditions for the necessary migration patterns.

Using the network internet-technologies for the hidden control of migration is possible in all the stages of migration. During the decision making stage when the political actor wants to form the positive attitude of users to the emigration, they can start publishing posts, article, videos, etc. with the stories of migrants' success in the new countries. Such publications can be supported by the specially generated comments. If people haven't thought about emigration before, they can start contemplating it. If they hesitated they can finally decide to move. In parallel, the narratives about unfavorable political and socio-economic situation in the country of origin that cannot be improved in the future can be disseminated. The posts and comments can be aimed not only to encourage and stimulate migration, but can be also designed to force the person to choose the certain migration destination. To that end the positive image of some countries and the negative image if other countries can be created due to the mass media and social networks.

Therefore, directing the migration processes based in the theory of migration networks seems like the most probable one in the contemporary situation of the fourth technological paradigm.

Undoubtedly, the traditional forms of interaction between people and, consequently, the traditional forms of informational influence continue playing the important role. However, the peculiarities of virtual network structures such as promptness, flexibility, segmentation, targeting, concealed motive s of the users, relative cost-efficiency turn the internet technologies into the most effective mean to direct migration in contemporary world. We can expect that the further development of the information technologies will increase the opportunities to control the social processes, including the migration.

Nevertheless, it can be assumed that the political actor will be able to successfully combine all above- mentioned means to direct migration processes. The factors that work in the framework of different migration theories can be created at different stages of migration. For example, at the first stage the wish to emigrate can be initiated by producing the pull-push factors, but during migrants' stay in the new place of living their behaviour can be controlled through the internet technologies in the framework of the migration network theory.

Furthermore we can foresee the political actor use simultaneously the means of directed migration based on different theories as they mutually reinforce each other. A s an example the actor can artificially create the pull and push factors within the scope of the pull-push theory, but also communicate information about the existence of these factors in the framework of the migration network theory. In such a way the significance of such factors can be increased and the multiplying effect can be provided. Besides, to achieve the hybrid war goals political actor can regard it sufficient to direct the migration only at certain stages of migration. Migration flows can form spontaneously and political actor can start controlling migration when migrants have already emigrated. Another scenario can be also possible: political actor can form the migration flows with the characteristics he is interested in. For example it can form the characteristics that provide the formation of the migration conflictogenity. Then, political actor can direct these flows to the country or region he wants to destabilize. Such migration can destructively influence the country of destination without additional interference of political actor.

Conclusion. In order to use the directed migration as an effective instrument of international policy the political actor has to control and influence migration in a hidden way. So it shouldn't betray itself or its strategic goals. Alternatively, the use of measures and means of influence can be explained with the plausible motives. If the real objectives of the actor run contrary to the international law or are morally unacceptable, the non-obviousness of the objectives and the hidden way of directing the migration allows the political actor to avoid responsibility under international law or save the positive image in international arena.

The directed migration poses the particular challenge to the countries that are considered by the political actor as target ones in the course of the hybrid warfare. The hidden way of actor's measures makes it difficult for the affected country to react on the directed migration and prevent its negative impact.

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Семенкова М.А.

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