Civil protests in modern Ukraine: comparing multiple cleavages before and after protests of 2013-2014

On the one hand, experts postulate, that the delimitation line in modern Ukraine has disappeared: before the revolution, the main controversy lied between pro-Western and pro-Russian Ukraine: “Today, the possibility of wide spread of pro-Russian attitudes is impossible”- expert V.Dimov mentions.

The following chapter contains an attempt to find a new empirical evidence towards mass attitudes in Ukraine and its possible change during the Revolution of Dignity and to test multiple cleavages on the pre-Maidan and after-Maidan cases.



Chapter 3. Multiple cleavages in Ukraine: before and after

3.1 Cleavages in Ukraine as a research object: discussion and qualitative findings

The following subchapter includes the brief observation of existing elaborations towards “classic” and “new” cleavages application, with a focus on the area of study this research aims to contribute: post-Soviet transition and Ukrainian studies.

As it has already been said, proposed in 1967 theory of multiple cleavages has immediately gained scientists attention due to its high explanatory power towards basic political science issues, like political participation and voters behavior, and wide theoretical boarders for further analysis and application onto different cases. cleavage civil protest ukraine

The theory of social cleavages first proposed by Lipsett and Rokkan has found its application in a huge variety of studies from the 1960's till the modern time. Many researchers succeeded not only in applying this theory but also in testing it within different countries and party systems. The following review contains a brief review of most notable and influential results scientists achieved within the theory application on different cases and countries, including Ukraine.

Ukrainian society is classically believed to be a very heterogeneous and diverse one. There are grounds to assume that the basic understanding of the recent political processes in Ukraine, including the civil protests of 2013-2014, is impossible without the structure of Ukrainian society analysis. The question of society attitudes towards the Revolution of Dignity and cleavages structure the division of these attitudes forced is crucial for the complex Ukrainian civil protests studying.

Aiming to identify cleavages existing in Ukrainian society on the edge of protests and make an attempt to compare them with after- revolution cleavages, at first, there is a need to review secondary sources- what has already been written and done in research connected with Ukrainian cleavages.

Yet in 1997, the question of mass attitudes' diversity was analyzed in the context of society support of the Ukraine independence. The research aimed in finding a dependence of social cleavages- ethnicity, language, religion and region of residence and differences in expression of an independent Ukraine support. Author questions the sufficiency of territorial and geographical regional disperancies according to the regions nearness to Russian borders. However author claims that regional factor is much more complicated and can't be explained geographically only, but has to include a complex of social and economic factors and characteristics and, what is more important, historical background of the space and ethno-linguistic component. Data was analyzed both at the group and at individual levels. The results showed that religion, ethnicity and regional factors influence significantly on the loyalty towards Ukraine and its independence. As for religious factors, atheists and Orthodox are less dedicated to Ukraine than Greek Catholics. The ethnical component has showed a complicated division between ethnic Ukrainians and ethnic Russians, where ethnic Ukrainians support independence more and ethnic Russians do not, though the results of ethnic Russian responds is not steady. The regional cleavages structure divides population clearly into the east and south, where society is not that dedicated to the independence of Ukraine, and west, where the situation is the opposite. The language factor analysis resulted in Russian-speakers opposition towards the independence, however, the individual-level analysis did not support the hypothesis of its significance: language and region are not correlated, unlike other components.(Lowell, 1997). Internal regional differences and geographic divisions were repeatedly proved to be crucial for Ukrainian political and social fields and society attitudes in 2004, stressing out the ethnicity and language parameters(Barrington & Herron, 2004).

There are grounds to assume that division of Ukrainian society has deep historical roots and therefore this phenomenon existed in this country for ages. However, there are assumptions that the real urgency of this division and, what is more important, its crucial meaning towards the Ukraine development, nation--building and democratization, appeared in 2004, when the Presidential elections turned out into the widely -known Orange Revolution. In Chapter 5, the author of one of the most complex works about the Ukrainian politics- “Understanding Ukrainian politics: power, politics, and institutional design” has raised the question of how do Ukraine's societal cleavages make democratic rule more difficult. Analyzing nation -building in Ukraine in- depth, Paul D'Anieri dedicated an independent chapter to answer the question whether the existing division and deep social cleavages in Ukrainian society influence badly on the democracy building in Ukraine. According to Paul D'Anieri, “the salience of regional voting patterns, augmented by threats of secession, brought these problems to the fore in late 2004” (P. J. D'Anieri, 2007, p. 62). Author assumes that societal cleavages might worsen the difficulties in party formation by making barriers for their development into mass-based ones from the parties, which represent interests of a particular narrow group(P. J. D'Anieri, 2007, p. 115).

Within the Ukrainian studies, the question of regionalism is highly probably one of the main and most popular question modern political scientists and sociologists are concerned. Ivan Katchanovski, Ukrainian and Canadian researcher, revealed the question of regional political cleavages and their influence on voting behavior. Analyzing Ukrainian regional divisions, author has succeeded in comparison of different factors significance: culture, ethnic, economic and religious factors. Author assigns a particular importance to a concept of a political culture, which is a compound term including “historical experience”(Katchanovski, 2005, p. 5). In overall, research aimed to estimate the influence of political culture in comparison to economic factors, ethnical characteristics, and leadership factors on population orientations towards Russia and Ukrainian independence revealed in the context of presidential, parliamentary elections taking place in the period from 1991 to 2004 and Ukrainian independence referendum of 1991. The main research conclusions support the well-known hypothesis of regional cleavages significance and high influence of historical background on voters' behavior. According to authors opinion, while such factors as religion and ethnicity are permanent and invariable, “the long history of Russian, and then Soviet, rule is the main factor of the pro-Communist and pro-Russian vote” and “in contrast, the history of Austro-Hungarian, Polish, Romanian, and Czechoslovak rule is strongly associated with support of nationalist and pro-independence parties and candidates”(Katchanovski, 2005, p. 20). Therefore, according to this study, historical experience, regional culture differences and political culture factors are more compelling within Ukrainian case than even ethnic components (Katchanovski, 2005).

In 2011, the linguistic cleavage as a significant factor for political divisions in Ukraine was tested by a variable of linguistic “self-identification”. In other words, author proposes a distinction between personal choice of language a respondent answers about (influenced by external factors) and a language respondent communicates in. Therefore, author concludes, that native language has a significant explanatory factor for population political preferences and attitudes and connects this correlation with concept of historical memory(Kulyk, 2011)

One of the latest research “East or West? Regional Political Divisions in Ukraine since the “Orange Revolution” and the “Euromaidan”” also by the authorship of Ivan Katchanovskii, presented on 2014 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, has followed the Ukrainian regionalism studies tradition, aiming to answer the question “whether the regional divisions concerning domestic politics, separatism and foreign orientation have changed significantly in Ukraine since the “Orange Revolution” in 2004 and the “Euromaidan” in 2014” (Katchanovski, 2014, p. 2) . Here, author has attempted to analyze changes in regional electoral behavior and attitudes towards separatism and foreign policy orientation in Ukraine after the “Orange Revolution” in 2004 and the “Euromaidan” in 2014 and, what is more important, to compare regional divisions connected with domestic policy, separatism and foreign orientation within these two cases. The research resulted in the thesis, that the regional divisions in contemporary Ukraine are equally relevant for the time period after protests of 2003 and for the period before the Revolution of Dignity ten years later. The main issues for the division are political parties' and political candidates support, and issues towards international field and key foreign policy issues, such as Ukraine integration in the European Union, membership in NATO and relationship with Russian Federation. The latest cleavages increased and there is a decrease in divides concerning the question of Ukraine and Russia cooperation and unification(Katchanovski, 2014).

Authors of the research “Political Machines and Regional Identities: Evidence from Post-Soviet Ukraine” successfully elaborated a three-dimension scheme for evaluation of political attitudes and preferences of supporters and antagonists of the State policy and applied it empirically on the case of Ukraine. According to the methodology proposed, authors, at first, concentrated on the correlation between regional diversities and linguistic and ethnic factors; secondly, on the dependence of political repercussions on of the socio-economic developmental and modernization; and thirdly, included a rather informal factor of particular political actors, informal networks and “clans”. The most capturing observation, despite of an empirical support of regional factor, is a high significance of political patronage networks and explanatory power of those factors within regional political preferences and patterns (Pop-Eleches & B., 2014).

Obviously, the above review of existing findings does not give us a right to assess the status of topic elaboration peremptorily, however, it helps us to follow the main trends and tendencies appeared throughout the relatively long history of cleavages in Ukraine studies. There is a broad variety of theories and explanatory methodologies and mechanisms used by authors to explain cleavages in political behavior and political attitudes in Ukraine and a rise of such research can be seen mostly after Ukraine independence in 1991, when cleavages in a country revealed themselves to be more visible. The review shows, that in most of the studies regional disperancies manifested themselves as very significant ones. However, none of the empirical observations showed that regional factor is exclusive and categorical one. In many cases, researchers estimate cleavages in accordance to crucial event, time period or, what is more relevant for Ukrainian case, civil protests of 2003 and there is a recent attempt (Katchanovski, 2014)to follow the cleavages lines till the protests of 2014. The main cleavages lines estimated by authors do not go beyond the “classic” cleavages theory proposed by Lipsett and Rokkan, however, the main concern of the authors lies in questions of ethnicity, language disperancies, attitudes towards Ukraine independence and European integration, and, undoubtedly, regional lines. According to our observation, there is a possibility to define two main groups of studies' focuses: authors who aim to explain cleavages structure by a rather objective, formal empirically-tested parameters, such as language, ethnicity and their correlation with different political preferences(Barrington & Herron, 2004; Kulyk, 2011; Lowell, 1997); and the second group of research where scientists attempt to find a more deep explanation, adding “informal” factors, such as historical memory, informal networks or oligarch and groups of interest influence (Katchanovski, 2005, 2008, 2014; Pop-Eleches & B., 2014).

Even though the elaboration of the chosen topic is high, there is still a space for further estimation of cleavages in Ukraine, which became especially relevant after such notable and crucial for country development even as the Revolution of Dignity happened in November 2013 to February 2014.

As it has already been mentioned, an attempt to test the cleavages existing in Ukrainian society on the edge of civil protests of 2013 and to compare them with cleavages appeared after the Revolution in 2014, will be conducted within three methodological dimensions. To find a new relevant evidence and answer the question, whether cleavages theory “work” within Ukrainian case, the data and experts assessment from in-depth expert interviews collected in Kiev will be interpreted and analyzed. Finally, an attempt to find a new quantitative evidence based on data collected and represented by Kiev International Institute of Sociology will be made.



3.2 Cleavages in Ukrainian society on the edge of protests

Data and variables

Attempting to find a new empirical evidence for cleavages structure on the edge of Ukrainian protests in 2013-2014 and to test multiple cleavages theories within this case, the data received from the consultations and cooperation with Kiev International Institute of Sociology will be used.

First dataset is a result of the study "The views and opinions of inhabitants of Ukraine: November 2013 (Omnibus)" conducted by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology from 4 to 22 November 2013. Sampling, developed for the study is representative for the Ukraine in general, with a cut to 4 regions. The survey was conducted in 110 settlements in all regions of Ukraine and Autonomous Republic of Crimea. As a result, 2,011 questionnaires were collected and the theoretical sample includes 2,000 questionnaires.

As this research aims mainly at comparing cleavages before and after protests, in November, 2013 and after February, 2014, to we have decided to sort out and exclude the cases of interviews which took place in Crimea, thus after the annexation the research of this region was stopped. Therefore, the selected cases of the chosen sample are the following:

Case Processing Summary: “Omnibus” November, 2013
	Cases
	Included	Excluded	Total
	N	Percent	N	Percent	N	Percent
Number of cases	1913	100,0%	0	,0%	1913	100,0%

The second additional dataset is chosen to test religious disperancies: questions about religious preferences were not included into the above-described survey dated by November 2013. Therefore, the latest available survey which includes data towards religion issues is "Your opinion” survey, conducted by the Ukrainian Razumkov Center and the Foundation "Democratic initiatives” from 20 to 25 December 2012. The general sample of the research are citizens of Ukraine aged 18 and older, collected by the multi-stage, random with quota sampling of respondents in the last stage method of sampling. The sample size is 2009 respondents. The survey was conducted in all the regions of Ukraine (24 regions, cities of Kyiv and Sevastopol and Crimea). The selected cases of the chosen sample include the following:

Case Processing Summary: “Your opinion” December, 2012
	Cases
	Included	Excluded	Total
	N	Percent	N	Percent	N	Percent
Number of cases	1897	100,0%	0	,0%	1897	100,0%

Empirical strategy and independent variables

The theoretical analysis of the “classic” cleavages theory, its application and evolution of this theory throughout the time passed from its first proposal in 1967, made in Chapter 1 allowed us to choose what cleavages lines are going to be tested within this research. We have decided to adhere the opinion expounded by Kevin Deegan-Krause. Though “classic” cleavages theory was and still being questioned by numerous scholars from the point of its application and relevance, according to authors' observation towards new cleavages appearing in the elaborations after the “classic” theory, the Lipset and Rokkan proposal “has survived the test of time not only because its labels elegantly captured key structural differences but also because they have proven highly adaptable”(Deegan-Krause, 2009, p. 5). Author concludes, that if interpreted or adapted, “Lipset and Rokkan's list leaves little room for additional categories”, however, “new” cleavages proved themselves to be an important ones, for example, “generational difference and education level”, proposed by R.Inglehart (Inglehart, 1999;Deegan-Krause, 2009) Moreover, a new line of cleavages is revealed in modern studies- globalization and Europeanization cleavages (Allardt, 2003; Jabko & Meunier, 2003; Strijbis & Leonisio, 2012), which in our opinion could probably have more relevance in the modern context and in the context of Ukraine.

Therefore, the following cleavages will be tested within Ukrainian case on the edge of events of 2013 and after them:

• “urban-rural” cleavage, which exemplifies geographic differences, difference between the urban and rural areas and citizens;

• “owner-worker” cleavage, which represents socio-economic status (Deegan-Krause, 2009) and, according to Lipsett and Rokkan theory is a “class cleavage”

• “center-periphery” cleavage which can be adapted as the one, which reproduces ethnicity;

• “church-state” cleavage represents religious beliefs

Two cleavages lines will be included due to the particular context of Ukraine. First, regional cleavages both on micro- and on micro level, which revealed themselves to be very important in particularly within Ukrainian case and appeared repeatedly in Ukraine-related research and studies( O'Loughlin, 2001; Katchanovski, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2014).

Secondly, the data received from expert in-depth interviews has releaved a probability of existence of a new cleavages line, which can be better characterized as historic-geographical cleavages by explaining them through historical perspectives of geographical and ethnographical, cultural composition of Ukrainian regions land. The following historical regions are segregated by experts and researchers(Kuzio, 2006; Shakarian, 2014):Galicia, Volhynia, Northern Bukovina and Northern Bessarabia, Carpathian Rus'(Subcarpathian Rus' or Transcarpathian Rus), Dnieper Ukraine, Podolia, Polesia, Zaporozhia, Sloboda Ukraine (Free Ukraine), The Donbas, Crimea, also known as Taurida; The Budzhak; The Yedisan; Novorossiya (New Russia); Novaya Serbiya (New Serbia) and Slavo-Serbiya (Slavo-Serbia). The subcence of the historical understanding of Ukrainian regionalism was described in Chapter 1.

Additional empirical test of “new” cleavages includes generation cleavages, education cleavages and cleavages connected with globalization and Europeanization.

Dependent variables

At first, within the main research objective, the choice of dependent variables correlates with the whole logic of this research. We have decided to choose two dependent variables, which allow us to estimate the general political satisfaction and readiness to participate in civil protest actions.

1. General agreement with country development and the current state of affairs

The general satisfaction towards affairs and the direction of Ukraine's development on the edge of the Revolution of Dignity is represented by the following question 1 in the chosen questionnaire “Omnibus, November 2013”: “In your opinion, affairs in Ukraine now are going in the right direction or wrong direction?”. The following options for respond were proposed: In the right direction (1), In the wrong direction (2), Don's know/Hard to say (97) and Refuse to respond (99).

General agreement or disagreement with a current state of affairs by November,2013
		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	Right direction	261	13,6	13,6	13,6
	Wrong direction	1290	67,4	67,5	81,1
	Don't know/Hard to say	342	17,9	17,9	99,0
	Refuse to respond	20	1,0	1,0	100,0
	Total	1912	99,9	100,0
Missing	ÍÂ	1	,1
Total	1913	100,0

According to the chosen data sample, there are grounds to postulate that on the edge of civil protests in Ukraine, the general satisfaction towards was significantly low. In a total quantity of responds 1913, 1290 respondents think that Ukraine development goes in a wrong direction, while only 261 agree with the current direction and 342 hesitate to respond. We have transformed this variable to a dummy condition, where “0” is satisfaction with affairs in the country and “1” is disagreement, “wrong direction” statement.

2. Readiness to participate in civil protests and civil actions

Second dependent variable we have chosen for multiple cleavages theory-testing correlates directly with the basic research question we are aiming to find an answer for and the research topic we are interested in- civil protests in Ukraine in November 2013 to February 2014.

The question in the questionnaire is the following: “In what actions of social/civil protest are you personally ready to participate in?” There are following options of answer: Participation in election campaign (1), The collection of signatures under the collective appeals (claims and appeals) (2), Sanctioned rallies and demonstrations (3), Strike threat (4), Boycott (refusal to execute the decisions of administration authorities) (5), Unauthorized rallies and demonstrations (6), Participation in strikes (7), Hunger strike (8), Picketing of government offices (9), Capture buildings (10), The creation of independent from the power structures of the armed forces (11), Other (what? WRITE IN)(12), I'm not ready to participate in any mass protest actions (13), hard to say (14).

Readiness to participate in civil protests and civil actions by November 2013
		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	,00	4	,2	,2	,2
	Participation in election campaign	1611	84,2	84,2	84,4
	The collection of signatures under the collective appeals (claims and appeals)	154	8,1	8,1	92,5
	Sanctioned rallies and demonstrations	80	4,2	4,2	96,7
	Strike threat	28	1,4	1,4	98,1
	Boycott (refusal to execute the decisions of administration authorities)	17	,9	,9	99,0
	Unauthorized rallies and demonstrations	6	,3	,3	99,3
	Participation in strikes	10	,5	,5	99,8
	Hunger strike	2	,1	,1	99,9
	Picketing of government offices	1	,0	,0	100,0
	The creation of independent from the power structures of the armed forces	1	,0	,0	100,0
	Total	1913	100,0	100,0

The results show that from the all answers received, there were no people who were not ready to participate in any kind of social protests. In another words, all the respondents are ready to participate in at least one type of civic protests action. The most common and numerous are readiness to participate in election campaign, the collection of signatures under the collective appeals and sanctioned (authorized) meetings and demonstrations.

We have transformed protest variable into binary dummy condition, therefore 1 means the participation in any kind of protest actions and 0 is refusal to answer or refuse to participate, which is irrelevant due to the results of descriptive statistics.

Third dependent variable is added to test religious disperancies before the events of 2013-2014, which is the general agreement to participate in protests: “Do you personally ready to participate in protest actions, if your rights and interests will be violated? The following answer options were proposed: “Yes” (1), “No” (2), “Hard to say” (3).

Personal readiness to participate in protests if rights and interests are violated by December 2012
		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	Yes	639	33,7	33,8	33,8
	No	1004	52,9	53,1	87,0
	Hard to say	246	13,0	13,0	100,0
	Total	1889	99,6	100,0
Missing	System	8	,4
Total	1897	100,0

According to the descriptive observation, as for December 2012, one year before the Revolution of Dignity the protest potential was quite high. Even though, the number of refusals to participate is higher, the quantity of those, who are ready to take action in the protests, is 33.8 %, which is a relatively high number.

Empirical evidence: general satisfaction with current country development on the edge of the civil protests in 2013-2014

To test multiple cleavages theory, and find out whether the general satisfaction towards Ukraine development is connected with dependent variables we have chosen, we transformed independent variable into the binary state, where 1- not satisfaction and 0- general satisfaction. In a whole, the data sample shows that the level of dissatisfaction exceed the level of satisfaction greatly, more than in 4,94 time.

1. Regional cleavages

First, we are going to test the most stereotyped cleavage- regional. According to the structure of the questionnaire, the regions were separated into four macro areas: Western Ukraine, Central Ukraine, Southern Ukraine and Eastern Ukraine.

Disagreement on macroregional level
		B	S.E.	Wald	Df	Sig.	Exp(B)
Step 1a	Regions			15,478	3	,001
	West	-,179	,221	,655	1	,418	,836
	Central	-,691	,195	12,580	1	,000	,501
	Southern	-,364	,217	2,815	1	,093	,695
	Constant	1,966	,162	147,748	1	,000	7,143
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: regions.

We have built a logistic regression for respondents' disagreement. Levels of disagreement in West and South regions are statistically insignificant (p-value West = 0,418>0,05; p-value South- 0,093>0,05). Comparing to the East region, which is the referent variable here, the probability of disagreement in Center region is lower in 2 times. In other words, the citizens of Central Ukraine were twice satisfied with the state of affairs in Ukraine on the edge of the Revolution of Dignity than citizens of Eastern Ukraine.

2. “Urban-rural” cleavage

This regression aims to test the connection between the area of respondents' residence - urban or rural- and the probability of his or her dissatisfaction.

“Urban-rural” cleavage and general disagreement
		B	S.E.	Wald	df	Sig.	Exp(B)
Step 1a	Urban citizen	,202	,152	1,782	1	,182	1,224
	Constant	1,540	,080	370,353	1	,000	4,665
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: urban.

The results of logistic regression on the disagreement for the state of affairs of citizens of rural and urban areas has shown no significance.

3. “Owner-worker” cleavage

à. “Owners of business - not owners” cleavage

We have transformed variable, which represents data on the respondent's professional activity into a dummy condition, where owner of a business or individual entrepreneur is “1”, and respondents of all other professions, not business owners - “0”.

		B	S.E.	Wald	df	Sig.	Exp(B)
Step 1a	Owner	-,830	,309	7,222	1	,007	,436
	Constant	1,634	,070	546,787	1	,000	5,127
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: owner.

According to the logistic regression results, comparing to “workers”, owners of business are less disagreed with the general state of affairs in Ukraine. In other words, business owners and individual entrepreneurs were 2.29 times more agreed with the general state of affairs in Ukraine on the edge of “Euromaidan” protests.

b. Socio-economic status cleavage

We have recode the economic status variable into the dummy state, where “ 0” is those respondents who dedicate them self to the rich class (ability to buy expensive things and ability to by anything they want), “1” is middle class, including those people who can buy clothes and food, and 2 for those who dedicate themselves into a lower class, with no ability to buy food.

“Socio-economic class” cleavage and general agreement
		B	S.E.	Wald	df	Sig.	Exp(B)
Step 1a	economic1			10,260	2	,006
	Wealth	-1,094	,349	9,831	1	,002	,335
	Middle	-,656	,303	4,702	1	,030	,519
	Constant	2,252	,293	59,058	1	,000	9,510
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: economic1.

We have built a logistic regression to see, whether there is a connection between socio-economic status and the disagreement with the state of affairs in Ukraine. Results show, that comparing to the representatives of a low class, the probability of a representative of a rich class to be disagreed with the state of affairs is lower in 2,98 times. Representatives of a rich class a 2,98 times more satisfied or agreed with the current state of affairs than representatives of lower class. Representatives of middle class were 1.92 times more satisfied with the state of affairs in Ukraine on the edge of protests. Comparing to the well-being class, middle class was disagreed more.

4. “Center-periphery” cleavage

To test whether the ethnicity influences on the agreement or disagreement with the state of affairs on Ukraine on the edge of protests of 2013-2014, we have recoded an ethnicity variable into a dummy condition, where Ukrainian is “1”, Russian “2” and all other nationalities as “0”, which due to the low quantity of reponds, we consider as a “Minority”.

Center-periphery” cleavage and the general disagreement
		B	S.E.	Wald	df	Sig.	Exp(B)
Step 1a	ethnicity1			9,079	2	,011
	Minorities	,868	,564	2,374	1	,123	2,382
	Ukrainian	-,436	,254	2,958	1	,085	,646
	Constant	1,965	,243	65,260	1	,000	7,131
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: ethnicity1.

The results of the logistic regression on ethnicity and its influence on the general disagreement toward the current country development are not statistically significant.

5. Generation cleavage

Variables in the Equation
		B	S.E.	Wald	df	Sig.	Exp(B)
Step 1a	Age			9,402	5	,094
	18-29	-,156	,228	,467	1	,495	,856
	30-39	,320	,254	1,595	1	,207	1,378
	40-49	,125	,243	,264	1	,608	1,133
	50-59	,493	,277	3,179	1	,075	1,638
	60-69	,129	,259	,248	1	,619	1,138
	Constant	1,479	,186	63,089	1	,000	4,388
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: age.

Considering the disagreement on the state of affairs on the edge of the Revolution of Dignity, the generation variable in logistic regression we built has shown no significance.

6. Education cleavage

We have recoded the education variable into a dummy condition, where the respondents with higher (8) or unfinished higher education (7) is “1” and respondents with other levels of education is “0”.

Level of education and general disagreement
		B	S.E.	Wald	df	Sig.	Exp(B)
Step 1a	Higher and unfinished higher education	-,376	,142	6,980	1	,008	,687
	Constant	1,717	,085	404,755	1	,000	5,570
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: education1.

Comparing to people with primary or secondary education only, the probability of disagreement towards the state of affairs in the country on the edge of “Euromaidan” among the holders of higher and unfinished education is lower. In other words, holders of higher education were more agreed with the current state of affairs in November 2013, than holders of lower levels of education.

7. Gender cleavage

Gender and general disagreement
		B	S.E.	Wald	df	Sig.	Exp(B)
Step 1a	Men	-,148	,136	1,193	1	,275	,862
	Constant	1,669	,094	312,074	1	,000	5,308
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: sex.

Considering gender and disagreement with the current state of affairs on the edge of civil protests in Ukraine, the logistic regression results have shown no statistical significance.

8. Globalization cleavage

Variable which we have chosen to test the globalization cleavage represents opinion on the question “Should Ukraine enter the European Union or not?” We have recoded variable into the condition, where “0” is refusal to answer or “I don't know”, “1” is agreement and “2” is disagreement.

Descriptive statistics shows that in the chosen sample, number of those who agree with Ukraine's entrance in European Union (768) slightly exaggerates number of those, who do not agree (495).

European integration and general agreement on the state of affairs
		B	S.E.	Wald	df	Sig.	Exp(B)
Step 1a	europe1			9,535	2	,009
	Don't know	,363	,200	3,299	1	,069	1,438
	Yes	-,218	,152	2,057	1	,151	,804
	Constant	1,624	,116	195,914	1	,000	5,075
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: europe1.

Logistic regressions results has shown no statistical significance on the level of disagreement with the current state of affairs and agreement or disagreement towards Ukraine `s entrance in European Union on the edge of Euromaidan in 2013

9. Language cleavage

The language variable was transformed into a dummy condition, where Ukrainian language speakers is “0”, Russian-Ukrainian (known as “Surzhik”) is “1” and Russian language speaking respondents is “2”.

Variables in the Equation
		B	S.E.	Wald	df	Sig.	Exp(B)
Step 1a	Language			,952	2	,621
	Ukrainian	-,070	,148	,228	1	,633	,932
	Russian-Ukrainian	-,201	,209	,925	1	,336	,818
	Constant	1,660	,102	266,224	1	,000	5,258
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: language.

The logistic regression on the language cleavages in accordance to disagreement with the state of affairs has shown no statistical significance.

10. Historic-geographical cleavage

The following cleavages line, which is going to be tested, can be formed according to historical regions of Ukraine, which we described above. We have recoded the micro regions variable by combining regions of Ukraine due to the former historical division. New variables according to the historical regions were computed Galicia as 11,14,20; Volhynia as 5,18; Bessarabia as 25; Carpathian Rus' as 9; Dnieper Ukraine as 2,24,17,8; Podolia as 4,23,3; Polesia as 19; Zaporozhia as 6,12,10; Sloboda Ukraine as 21; The Donbas as 7,13; Budzhak and Yesida as 16 and Novorossiya as 22, 15.



Historical regions and general dissatisfaction
		B	S.E.	Wald	Df	Sig.	Exp(B)
Step 1a	Historical			33,493	11	,000
	Galicia	-,065	,359	,033	1	,856	,937
	Volin'	,485	,487	,989	1	,320	1,624
	Bessarabia	,243	,724	,112	1	,738	1,274
	Carpathian Rus'	,896	,704	1,622	1	,203	2,451
	Dnieper	-,627	,331	3,590	1	,058	,534
	Podolia	,409	,381	1,152	1	,283	1,505
	Polisia	-,374	,497	,566	1	,452	,688
	Zaporozhia	-,154	,344	,200	1	,655	,857
	Sloboda	,030	,401	,006	1	,940	1,031
	Donbas	,490	,362	1,832	1	,176	1,632
	Budzhak and Yedisan	,211	,451	,218	1	,640	1,235
	Constant	1,628	,299	29,638	1	,000	5,094
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: historical.

Even though high explanatory power of this cleavage was numerously mentioned by experts, this particular regression on the historical regional cleavages and the disagreement with the state of affairs has proven itself to be statistically insignificant.

2. Empirical evidence: Readiness to participate in civil protests and civil actions on the edge of civil protests of 2013-2014

1. Regional cleavages

Macroregions and readiness to participate in civil protests
		B	S.E.	Wald	df	Sig.	Exp(B)
Step 1a	Regions			12,757	3	,005
	West	,519	,182	8,132	1	,004	1,680
	Central	,018	,181	,010	1	,922	1,018
	Southern	,045	,195	,052	1	,819	1,046
	Constant	-1,838	,138	176,143	1	,000	,159
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: regions.

According to the logistic regression we built, only the results of West region has proven itself to be statistically significant (p-value<0,05). Comparing to the Eastern Ukraine, the probability of the agreement to participate in protests in Western Ukraine is bigger. Respondents of Western Ukraine are more ready to participate in protests.

2. “Urban- rural” cleavage

Residence (urban-rural) and readiness to participate in civil protests
		B	S.E.	Wald	df	Sig.	Exp(B)
Step 1a	urban(1)	-,017	,136	,016	1	,900	,983
	Constant	-1,684	,076	490,000	1	,000	,186
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: urban.

The result of the logistic regression on the agreement to participate in protests among citizens of urban and rural area has no statistical significance.

3. “Owner-worker” cleavage

a. “Owner of business- not owner” cleavage

Owner of business/worker and readiness to participate in protests
		B	S.E.	Wald	df	Sig.	Exp(B)
Step 1a	owner(1)	-,325	,311	1,091	1	,296	,723
	Constant	-1,378	,304	20,522	1	,000	,252
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: owner.

The result of the logistic regression on the agreement to participate in protests among owners of business or individual entrepreneurs and holders of other professions has no statistical significance.

b. Socio- economic status

Variables in the Equation
		B	S.E.	Wald	df	Sig.	Exp(B)
Step 1a	economic1			5,017	2	,081
	Wealth	,623	,278	5,013	1	,025	1,865
	Middle	,598	,336	3,179	1	,075	1,819
	Constant	-2,253	,270	69,763	1	,000	,105

Comparing to holders of a low socio-economic class, the representatives of a wealth class were more ready to participate in protests on the edge of “Euromaidan”.

4. “Center-periphery” cleavage

Ethnicity and readiness to participate in protests
		B	S.E.	Wald	df	Sig.	Exp(B)
Step 1a	ethnicity1			4,024	2	,134
	Minorities	,490	,371	1,739	1	,187	1,632
	Ukrainian	,481	,240	3,999	1	,046	1,618
	Constant	-2,132	,231	85,336	1	,000	,119
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: ethnicity1.

Comparing to Russian respondents, the statistical chance that a holder of Ukrainian nationality holder will participate in protests is higher.

5. Generation cleavage

Generation and readiness to participate in protests
		B	S.E.	Wald	df	SSig.	EExp(B)
Step 1a	Age			26,518	5	,000
	18-29	1,071	,293	13,350	1	,000	2,919
	30-39	1,379	,295	21,912	1	,000	3,971
	40-49	1,175	,296	15,766	1	,000	3,240
	50-59	,878	,317	7,658	1	,006	2,406
	60-69	,758	,318	5,677	1	,017	2,135
	Constant	-2,681	,263	103,880	1	,000	,069
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: age.

According to the results of regression, the age groups 18-29, 20-29, 20-49 showed themselves to be statistically significant. Comparing to the age group of 70+, younger groups of ages a more ready to participate in protests. The highest probability of agreement to participate in protests can be seen in the age group of 30-39. The lowest probability is found among 60-69 age group. Though the differences in probability is insignificant.

6. Education cleavages

Education and agreement to participate in protests
		B	S.E.	Wald	df	Sig.	Exp(B)
Step 1a	education1(1)	-,242	,134	3,245	1	,072	,785
	Constant	-1,523	,110	192,734	1	,000	,218
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: education1.

According to the results of logistic regression, there is no statistical significance of influence of the level of education on the agreement to participate in protests.

7. Gender cleavage

Gender and readiness to participate in protest
		B	S.E.	Wald	df	Sig.	Exp(B)
Step 1a	Men	,490	,127	14,918	1	,000	1,632
	Constant	-1,931	,093	433,278	1	,000	,145
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: sex.

According to the results logistic regression, men are more likely to participate in protests than women are.

8. Globalization cleavage

Language and readiness to participate in protests
		B	S.E.	Wald	Df	Sig.	Exp(B)
Step 1a	europe1			53,364	2	,000
	Don't know	-,252	,198	1,627	1	,202	,777
	Yes	,830	,150	30,766	1	,000	2,293
	Constant	-2,034	,123	275,035	1	,000	,131
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: europe1.

Comparing to those, who disagree with Ukraine's entrance in European Union, the probability of those respondents who agree to agree to participate in protests is twice higher. Those, who agree with the Ukraine integration into Europe, are more likely to agree to participate in civil protest and civil actions.

9. Language cleavage

Language and readiness to participate in civil protests
		B	S.E.	Wald	df	Sig.	Exp(B)
Step 1a	Language			19,066	2	,000
	Ukrainian	,567	,136	17,443	1	,000	1,763
	Russian-Ukrainian	,048	,219	,047	1	,828	1,049
	Constant	-1,953	,100	378,006	1	,000	,142
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: language.

According to the results of logistic regression, comparing to Russian speakers, Ukrainian speakers are ready to participate in civil protests more.

10. Historic-geographical cleavages

Variables in the Equation
		B	S.E.	Wald	Df	Sig.	Exp(B)
Step 1a	Historical			58,270	11	,000
	Galicia	,439	,285	2,366	1	,124	1,551
	Volin'	-,228	,367	,387	1	,534	,796
	Bessarabia	-,907	,734	1,530	1	,216	,404
	Carpathian Rus'	-,324	,464	,489	1	,485	,723
	Dnieper	-,763	,302	6,380	1	,012	,466
	Podolia	,010	,294	,001	1	,973	1,010
	Polisia	-2,029	,788	6,622	1	,010	,132
	Zaporozhia	-,935	,318	8,648	1	,003	,393
	Sloboda	-,994	,390	6,504	1	,011	,370
	Donbas	-,408	,289	2,002	1	,157	,665
	Budzhak and Yedisan	-,575	,374	2,361	1	,124	,563
	Constant	-1,284	,243	27,977	1	,000	,277
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: historical.

According to the results of logistic regression we built, comparing to the citizens of former “Novorossia” (Odessa, Nikolayev, Kherson, Tiraspol, and Berdyansk) the citizens of a historical region Zaporizhia (modern Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporozhia, Kryvyi Rih, and Kirovograd), Dnieper (Kiev, Cherkasy, Poltava, and Zhytomyr), Polisia (Chernihiv, Shostka, Nizhyn, and Korosten) and Sloboda (the Kharkiv oblast) were less ready to participate in protests in 2013, on the edge of “Euromaidan”. The highest protest potential can be detected in Dnieper historical region. The lowest - in Polesia.

11. “Church- state” cleavage

Religion and readiness to participate in civil protests
		B	S.E.	Wald	df	Sig.	Exp(B)
Step 1a	Religion			50,891	10	,000
	Non-believer	,459	,244	3,541	1	,060	1,582
	Ukrainian Orthodox (Kyiv Patriarchate)	,500	,234	4,590	1	,032	1,649
	Ukrainian Orthodox (Moscow Patriarchate)	,063	,241	,067	1	,795	1,065
	Greek Catholic	1,235	,274	20,263	1	,000	3,440
	Catholic	,825	,478	2,985	1	,084	2,282
	Ukrainian Autocephalous Orthodox	,848	,490	3,001	1	,083	2,335
	Protestant	-,832	,863	,929	1	,335	,435
	The Muslim	-20,150	26370,933	,000	1	,999	,000
	Jewish	22,256	36152,711	,000	1	1,000	4,630E9
	Constant	-1,053	,219	23,141	1	,000	,349
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: religion.

According to the results of logistic regression, respondent with Greek Catholic religious beliefs were significantly more ready to participate in protests in 2012. The probability to agree to participate in protests is also higher among the believers of Ukrainian Orthodox (Kyiv Patriarchate).

Results: on the edge of protests

We have tested multiple cleavages within the sample of pre-protest data restricted by November 2013 by building binary logistic regressions.

Considering the question of general disagreement towards the state of affairs on the edge of “Euromaidan”, regional cleavages lied through the division between Eastern and Central Ukraine: citizens of Central Ukraine were twice satisfied with the state of affairs in Ukraine on the edge of the Revolution of Dignity than citizens of Eastern Ukraine.

“Owner-worker” cleavage also proved itself to be a relevant one. According to the logistic regression results, business owners and individual entrepreneurs were more agreed with the general state of affairs in Ukraine on the edge of “Euromaidan” protests. Representatives of a rich class a 2,98 times more satisfied or agreed with the current state of affairs than representatives of lower class. Comparing to the well-being class, middle class was disagreed more.

As for the education level, holders of higher education were more agreed with the current state of affairs in November 2013, than holders of lower levels of education.

Therefore, on the edge of November 2013 within the general disagreement towards the state of affairs and Ukraine development, the following cleavages are proved to exist: regional cleavages, classic Lapse and Rokkan “owner-worker” cleavage and education cleavage.

Regarding the agreement to participate in civil protests or actions, on the edge of the Revolution of Dignity, regional cleavage performed in the line of Western Ukraine, where there is a chance that respondents are ready to participate in protests more than citizens of Central Ukraine.

The “owner-worker” cleavage has appeared in a sense of distinction between holders of a low socio-economic class and the representatives of a wealth class, where the latest were more ready to participate in protests on the edge of “Euromaidan”.

The ethnical cleavage, interpreted from the “classic” “center-periphery” cleavage, has revealed an expectable cleavage between ethnic Russian respondents and ethnic Ukrainians, where the statistical chance that a holder of Ukrainian nationality holder will participate in protests is higher.

The generation cleavage has proved itself to be an existing one, however, the disperancies between age groups and their agreement to participate in the protests were not high.

The globalization cleavage hypothesis was proven: those respondents, who agree with the Ukraine integration into Europe, are more likely to agree to participate in civil protest and civil actions.

The language cleavage line exists at the differentiation between Russian and Ukrainian speakers, where the latest are ready to participate in civil protests more.

Gender cleavage also revealed a line, while men are more likely to participate in protests than women are.

The historic-geographical cleavage lied between the According to the results of logistic regression we built, comparing to the citizens of former “Novorossia” (modern Odessa, Nikolayev, Kherson) the citizens of a historical region Zaporizhia, Dnieper, Polisia and Sloboda were less ready to participate in protests in 2013, on the edge of “Euromaidan”. The highest protest potential was found in modern Kiev territories and Zaporozhia - both historically “Ukrainian” territories.

The religion cleavage was revealed through higher protest acceptance among Greek Catholic and Ukrainian Orthodox (Kyiv Patriarchate).

3.2 Cleavages in Ukrainian society after “Euromaidan”

1. Empirical evidence: general disagreement with country development and the current state of affairs

In general, by the December 2014, the disagreement moods were still high.

General agreement or disagreement with a current state of affairs by December, 2013
		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	In the right direction	517	25,7	25,8	25,8
	Wrong direction	991	49,3	49,4	75,1
	Don't know	474	23,6	23,6	98,8
	Refuse to answer	25	1,2	1,2	100,0
	Total	2006	99,7	100,0
Missing	ÍÂ	5	,3
Total	2011	100,0

To built a logistic regression, we have recoded a variable into a binary dummy condition, where the “wrong direction” answer is “1” and all other answers, including, the “right direction” as “0”

General satisfaction with the state of affairs by December 2014
		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	Else	1015	50,5	50,6	50,6
	Wrong direction	991	49,3	49,4	100,0
	Total	2006	99,7	100,0
Missing	System	5	,3
Total	2011	100,0

1. Regional cleavages

Macroregions and the general disagreement in December 2014
		B	S.E.	Wald	df	Sig.	Exp(B)
Step 1a	macroregion			70,134	3	,000
	West	-,908	,135	45,145	1	,000	,403
	Central	-,991	,128	59,778	1	,000	,371
	Southern	-,532	,136	15,268	1	,000	,587
	Constant	,622	,099	39,664	1	,000	1,863
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: macroregion.

Comparing to the Eastern Ukraine, there is a higher possibility that after the events of 2013-2014, respondents from West Ukraine are in 2,48 times more satisfied with the state of affairs in Ukraine, respondents from Central Ukraine are more satisfied in 2,69 times and Southern Ukrainians - in 1,70 times more agreed with the current state of affairs in December 2014. In general, citizens of Southern Ukraine agree more with the current state of affairs, thank citizens of West and Central Ukraine, while the latest is less agree among the West and Souther Ukraine.

2. “Urban-rural” cleavage



Area of inhabitance (urban or rural) and general disagreement
		B	S.E.	Wald	df	Sig.	Exp(B)
Step 1a	Urban	-,037	,097	,147	1	,701	,964
	Constant	-,013	,054	,062	1	,803	,987
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: urban.

The logistic regression on the differences between urban and rural population has shown no statistical significance.

3. “Owner-worker” cleavage

a. “Business owner- not business” owner

Variables in the Equation
		B	S.E.	Wald	df	Sig.	Exp(B)
Step 1a	work1(1)	,429	,192	4,970	1	,026	1,535
	Constant	-,428	,187	5,260	1	,022	,652
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: work1.

There is a higher statistical probability that business owners after the Revolution of 2013 are more dissatisfied with the state of affairs, as by December 2014, than holders of other professions.