Україна в геополітичної стратегії Росії (1991–2008 рр.): політологічний аналіз джерел формування пріоритетів

В диссертации комплексно исследованы источники, характер и основные направления эволюции геостратегии России по отношению к Украине в 1991-2008 гг., а также определены пути теоретического и концептуального анализа, усовершенствован категориально-понятийный аппарат проблемы. На основании теоретических выводов структурного и неоклассического реализма, а также результатов эмпирического исследования разработано модель источников формирования геостратегических приоритетов России по отношению к Украине. В работе определена структура стратегического процесса (принципы формирования целей, концепции, ресурсное обеспечении). Особое внимание уделяется авторскому анализу влияния внешней и внутренней среды, а также мотивов безопасности и статуса как основных источников геостратегического поведения России на украинском направлении.

Ключевые слова: национальная стратегия, геостратегия, геополитика, безопасность, политика престижа, статус, структура геостратегии.

Summary

Gnatyuk M. Russian Geostrategy towards Ukraine (1991 - 2008): Sources of Conduct. - Manuscript.

Thesis for the candidate degree in political sciences in specialty 23.00.01 - theory and history of political science. - I. Kuras' Institute of Political and Ethnic Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. - Kyiv, 2008.

In the dissertation are in a complex investigated sources, character and directions of evolution of Russian geostrategic course towards Ukraine. On the bases of theoretical assumption of neorealist and neoclassical realist theory and with empirical evidence to some general trends within the public debate over «Ukrainian geopolitical question» the author formulates an appropriate explanatory model. Therein, all key variables are introduced which contribute to the general understanding of the dynamics of Russia' geostrategy during the crucial period from 1991 to 2008. Within the model, the structure of the international system in Europe sets the framework for Russia's international action. These structural conditions of Russian-Ukrainian regional security environment are permissive but not determined to geostrategic goals towards Ukraine.

The model therefore includes explanatory variables on the national level which are outside the classical geostrategic realm. Such state-level interests were generally related to political, less strategic values attributed to Ukraine. The interplay between security-related variables, such as the `NATO factor' and unit-level variables («common historical destiny with Ukraine»), account for Russia's dissatisfaction with the existing international order and for special role of Ukraine in Russian self-identification as a great power.

Primary attention was given to analyze the structure of geostrategic process towards Ukraine (objectives, strategic concepts, resources are determined), and especially the role of the strategic and domestic environment of geostrategic policy making. Thus, a broad picture of the security environment in which Russia and Ukraine are placed is drawn. Furthermore, the analysis includes an assessment of the Ukraine's role for Russia's relations with the major regional powers. Finally, those motives of the Russian strategy making which are not directly related to security but originate from distinct values attributed to Ukraine are explored. The motives are identified by means of combined quantitative procedures and interpretive method of content analysis.

Key words: national strategy, geostrategy, geopolitics, international security, prestige policy, status, structure of geostrategy.

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