Development of the security environment in the aspect of national security in the conditions of war

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Central Ukrainian Institute of PJSC «Interregional Academy of Personnel Management»

Department of Law

Development of the security environment in the aspect of national security in the conditions of war

Zelensky S.M., Ph.D. (Law), Ass. professor

Yaroshenko S.V., C. Law, Ass. Professor

Kolisnichenko R.M., D. Polit. Sci., Ass. prof.

Kropyvnytsky

Abstract

The topicality of the topic is due to threats to the security environment in wartime conditions. The negative impact of man on the surrounding natural environment, associated with war, poses a threat to the existence of mankind. There is a need to assess the environmental threats associated with war. A military threat can be necessarily assessed as a threat to the security environment in the aspect of national security in wartime by conducting a systematic and targeted strategic analysis of dangers and threats at the global, national and regional levels.

The results of the conducted strategic analysis can be used for adoption in the field of ensuring the security and defense of the state.

The purpose of the article is to highlight the results of a study of the criteria for assessing the security environment in the aspect of national security in wartime conditions.

In accordance with the purpose of the research, the main indicator of the level of stability of a certain system or process is singled out. Peculiarities and differences in determining the levels of stability of complex systems are highlighted: general stability, which characterizes the system as a whole, and specific, which characterizes it within the limits of specific stability according to the signs of threats and dangers.

The identification and assessment of cascading effects in the complex national security system and the assessment of the state and effectiveness of the management of the national security system are recognized as problematic. The concept of the security environment is defined as a set of external and internal relations between subjects in all spheres of national security, as well as conditions, factors and circumstances that in a certain way affect or may affect these relations.

The strategic orientations of the state regarding the assessment of the state and prospects for the development of the security environment in the aspect of national security in conditions of war have been determined. It is recognized that it is necessary to form a sufficiently stable economic potential, a stable financial system, and human resources in Ukraine as the basis for ensuring one's own security. The independence of the state, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine are recognized as conditions that give our state the right to choose to participate in collective security systems and/or alliances.

Key words: security environment, national security, risks, threats, level of stability

Анотація

Розвиток безпекового середовища в аспектінаціональної безпеки в умовах війни

Зеленський С.М., Ярошенко С.В., к.ю.н., доценти кафедри правознавства, Колісніченко Р.М., д. політ. н. професор, директор Центральноукраїнський інститут Приватного акціонерного товариства «Вищий навчальний заклад «Міжрегіональна Академія управління персоналом», м. Кропивницький

Актуальність теми обумовлена загрозами безпековому середовищу в умовах війни. Негативний вплив людини на навколишнє природне середовище, пов'язаний з війною, постає загрозою для існування людства. Виникає необхідність оцінки загроз навколишньому середовищу, пов'язаних з війною. Військова загроза може бути із необхідністю оцінена, як загроза безпековому середовищу в аспекті національної безпеки в умовах війни шляхом проведення системно-цільового стратегічного аналізу небезпек та загроз на глобальному, національному та регіональному рівнях.

Результати проведеного стратегічного аналізу можуть бути використані для прийняття у сфері забезпечення безпеки і оборони держави.

Метою статті є висвітлення результатів дослідження критеріїв оцінки безпекового середовища в аспекті національної безпеки в умовах війни.

Відповідно мети дослідження виокремлено основний показник рівня стійкості певної системи або процесу. Виділено особливості та відмінності у визначенні рівнів стійкості складних систем: загальну стійкість, яка характеризує систему в цілому, та специфічну, яка характеризує її у межах питомої стійкості за ознаками загроз і небезпек.

Проблемною визнано ідентифікацію та оцінку каскадних ефектів в складній системі національної безпеки та оцінку стану та ефективності управління системою національної безпеки. Визначено поняття безпекового середовища, як сукупності зовнішніх і внутрішніх зв'язків між суб'єктами у всіх сферах національної безпеки, а також умови, чинники та обставини, які певним чином впливають або можуть вплинути на ці відносини.

Означено стратегічні орієнтири держави щодо оцінки стану та перспектив розвитку безпекового середовища в аспекті національної безпеки в умовах війни. Визнано необхідним формування в Україні достатньо стійкого економічного потенціалу, стабільної фінансової системи, людського ресурсу, як основи забезпечення власної безпеки. Незалежність держави, суверенітет та територіальна цілісність України визнано такими умовами, що дають нашій державі право вибору участі в колективних безпекових системах та/або союзах.

Ключові слова: безпекове середовище, національна безпека, ризики, загрози, рівень стійкості

Formulation of the problem

The environment has always contained dangers - these were and still are natural dangers, such as predatory animals, excessive cold and heat, earthquakes, storms, tsunamis, floods, etc. The dangers caused by human influence on nature have now been added to the natural ones, man-made. Examples of the most famous accidents are the accidents at the Chernobyl NPP and the Fukushima NPP.

The biggest man-made disaster that happened recently is the destruction of the Kakhovskaya HPP. It obviously demonstrates the negative impact of man on nature, connected with war. Threats to the environment, which arise in the world due to social conflicts, the most acute phase of which is their resolution with the help of force, war, pose a threat to the existence of humanity.

At the same time, there is a need to assess the threats to the environment associated with war. In the context of a military threat, it is necessary to assess threats to the security environment in the aspect of national security in war conditions by conducting a systematic and targeted strategic analysis of dangers and threats at the global, national and regional levels.

The results of the strategic analysis can be used to make state decisions in the field of security and defense of the state and national security as a whole.

Analysis of recent research and publications. The main aspects of problems related to the assessment of the security environment were studied by scientists conducting both sectoral and interdisciplinary research in the areas of economics, law, psychology, culture, etc. Among the most significant, in our opinion, should be named: V. Bogdanovich, D. Dubov, O. Kornievsky, N. Nyzhnyk, A. Semenchenko, V. Smolyanyuk, and others.

The purpose of the article is to highlight the results of a study of the criteria for assessing the security environment in the aspect of national security in wartime conditions.

Presenting main material

According to Art. Art. 1, 2, 17, 18, 92 of the Basic Law of Ukraine determine the basic principles of national security and defense, the goal and main directions of state policy, which act as guarantees of protection of every citizen of Ukraine and society as a whole from possible threats and dangers.

Determining and delimiting the powers of all state bodies in the field of national security and defense [1], defining their main functions in this field, the order of deployment of forces and distribution of defense means, the system of management and interaction of security bodies, defining the forces of defense, introducing a comprehensive approach to analysis, planning and control of their activities.

The entire set of risks and threats to national security, overcoming their possible consequences in the conditions of war constitutes a multidimensional system of indicators, which is subject to careful analysis in order to forecast the possible consequences of each risk and threat, by evaluating it according to the criteria of severity, number, duration, etc. Further analysis of such consequences may change the priority of the greatest risks and threats identified.

Taking into account world experience, the consequences of exposure to risks and threats are determined in relation to the following main groups of protection objects:

- physical objects, which include infrastructure objects, residential and administrative buildings, communications, etc.;

- human resource, which includes life, physical and mental health, well-being of the population;

- economic and financial resources;

- surrounding natural environment;

- social and political potential [2, p. 89].

Determining the potential of the state and the main target groups that can be most negatively affected by threats is related to identifying the potential of their resilience and ability to resist threats with acceptable losses of their functionality. It should be taken into account that the level of permissible damage is determined individually, in relation to each target group, taking into account its main characteristics and features.

The security environment is defined as a complex system of external and internal relations in all areas of the general national security system between entities that have a certain resource, as well as conditions, factors and circumstances that affect or may affect them. The subjects are states, coalitions of states, business structures, political parties, associations of citizens, etc. [3, p. 6].

Relations between subjects are generated by the actions they perform based on their own ideology. The implementation of these actions requires resource costs for the implementation of the ideological plans of the named entities, primarily in the economy, politics, and cultural spheres.

Our analysis of the actions of entities that have an impact on the security environment revealed their interests in the specified areas. In order to fulfill the research objectives, the main elements of the security environment that were studied were: the interests of the most powerful subjects of international relations, their needs in the economic sphere, access to resources.

We single out the most important among others: resources of subjects, which are determined by their development in the field of engineering and technology, economy and politics, human and natural resources; contradictions between the interests of the most influential subjects that determine the development trends of the system of international relations, the most developed countries; external and internal capabilities of the most influential subjects to ensure power and balance of power, both inside the country and in the external arena; the main actions of subjects (including nature), which can negatively affect the system of international relations and which we consider as risks of the security environment [4, p. 4].

The assessment of the state and prospects for the development of the security environment, in particular its global, regional and national aspects, in the conditions of war, taking into account the military threat to national security, is defined as the first stage of the system-targeted strategic analysis, which provides all the necessary initial data for the performance of further tasks and the preparation of conclusions.

A strategic system-target analysis is conducted by an authorized entity during a comprehensive review of the security and defense sector. Among the main problems of the security environment, we single out the financing of the development of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in particular, the fact that the budget of Ukraine is not a budget for intensive development, the amount of budget expenditures directly depends on charitable, humanitarian and international aid. The structure of defense budget expenditures and the lack of objective opportunities for the growth of own sources of income are also inefficient.

These shortcomings became one of the main reasons for Ukraine's unpreparedness to protect its borders and significant losses during the Russian aggression during 2022-2023. This convinces of the need to comply with the current legislation of Ukraine, which combines the administrative-legal and financial-legal principles of regulation of the sphere of security and defense in Ukraine, including the Armed Forces of Ukraine [5, p. 33]. The achievement of increasing the volume of sources of income in Ukraine can be seen in the modernization of the defense- industrial complex.

In accordance with the purpose of the study, we single out such a basic conceptual approach to determining indicators and levels of assessment of the security environment as an indicator of the level of stability of a certain system or process. In addition, we highlight the peculiarities and differences in determining the levels of stability of complex systems. In general, it is possible to assess the level of stability, as the general stability of the system and specific stability, as the resistance of certain objects to various threats or dangers. While the general stability characterizes the system as a whole, the specific one characterizes it within the limits of specific stability according to the following features:

- stability of the object in relation to a certain type of threats and dangers of a natural nature;

- the stability of a certain object in relation to threats and dangers of a social nature.

A comprehensive methodology for assessing the level of threats and dangers of a social nature is based on the definition of the main elements of the system and the connections between them, including the goals and motivation of the activities of various subjects, factors affecting the state of the system, etc. In accordance with the specified research objective, it is proposed to assess the state of various subsystems within the overall national security system and the elements that have a destructive effect on them, determining the presence of certain problems of a strategic nature in the assessment. A separate area of assessment is the determination of factors affecting a separate subsystem as a constituent element of the system as a whole and determination of the limits of possible changes.

We consider the identification and assessment of cascading effects in the complex system of national security and the assessment of the state and effectiveness of the management of the national security system to be problematic, including the determination of formal and informal relationships between the main factors of threats to its individual elements, in particular the security environment, as a set of external and internal connections relations between subjects in all spheres of national security, as well as conditions, factors and circumstances that in a certain way affect or may affect these relations.

The specification of the features of the research object (specific subsystem) on the basis of the analysis of the information obtained through the assessment becomes the basis for the development of appropriate strategies for strengthening stability [6, p. 57]. security environment war national security

Ukraine's national security, like international security, is increasingly affected by the processes of globalization. They become decisive in the development of the world economy and politics, and also lead to radical changes in the international security environment, which is becoming more and more dynamic and controversial. Under the influence of globalization, changes are taking place in the international system of protecting the peace and security of mankind, the composition of the participants in the international political process is expanding, in which the politics of Ukraine is increasingly significant. Along with national states, international associations, organizations and other participants, such as non-governmental organizations, operate on the modern world stage. At the same time, there is a weakening of the main institutions of international regulation in the field of security and cooperation, which demonstrates their insufficient effectiveness in countering modern challenges and threats.

The national security strategy is directly related to the expansion of Ukraine's cooperation with NATO, the deepening of the political dialogue between Ukraine and the members of the Alliance in matters of security, including nuclear, and is based on the following basic principles:

- deterrence - development of defense capability and security to prevent armed aggression against Ukraine;

- sustainability - the ability of society and the state to quickly adapt to changes in the security environment and maintain sustainable functioning, in particular by minimizing external and internal vulnerability;

- interaction - the development of strategic relations with key foreign partners, primarily with the European Union and NATO and their member states, the United States of America, cooperation with other states and international organizations, based on the national interests of Ukraine [7, p. 147].

The strengthening of interaction and interdependence of the countries of the world gives rise to the formation of new "power centers", the competition between which for influence over resources is constantly growing. The level of openness of the international security system is increasing, which opens up new unprecedented opportunities and at the same time creates new threats and challenges in the field of protection of the security environment at the global, regional and national levels.

There is an urgent need to create more flexible systems of interaction between subjects of international relations in order to protect their own security environment, capable of quickly and effectively responding to new challenges. The new arrangement and ratio of political forces changes the balance of forces and interests in the world, the nature, scope and content of former challenges, threats and risks. Regional and local challenges that pose a threat to the security environment are becoming increasingly globalized and increasingly complex. Increasingly, threats to the security environment of subjects of international relations include global problems of humanity [8, p. 56].

We draw your attention to the fact that the coronavirus pandemic has become the biggest global challenge since the Second World War and already now and in the future will bring large-scale consequences in the medical field, political, economic, as well as changes in the field of security environment protection.

Global world challenges such as climate change, aging population, new diseases, financial crises and the emergence of new technologies are increasingly dividing humanity rather than uniting it. They lead to an increase in tension, both within society and in relations between countries, which can lead to catastrophic consequences in the future.

Public policy is increasingly volatile and controversial, and no region, ideology or governance system is immune. The population is increasingly wary of public institutions and their own governments, which people believe are unwilling and unable to meet their needs. In search of ways to ensure their own security, people increasingly gravitate to their acquaintances and like-minded people, including ethnic, religious and cultural identity, forming groups around common interests to protect against threats, in particular such as environmental problems.

As the public becomes more empowered and demands ever more robust guarantees from government to protect a secure environment, governments are under increasing pressure from the public to face new challenges and threats and diminishing resources to deal with them. This increases the gap between the government and the population, which will further lead to political instability and the restriction of democracy.

Changes in the army, demography, economy, technologies, environmental conditions are taking place at an accelerated pace, and differences in views regarding management models in the field of security environment protection are also appearing. Increasing competition between China and the Western coalition led by the United States is likely. The confrontation between them affects most regions of the world, which causes changes in existing alliances, international organizations and rules that underlie the modern system of ensuring the security of the international legal order, and Russian influence remains one of the main negative and destabilizing factors.

Of all the common risks and challenges facing every country in the world, climate change is becoming the most important. Scientists warn that without immediate joint action by all the countries of the world, in the coming decade, global temperatures may exceed the critical threshold of warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius, after which some of the most catastrophic consequences of climate change will be irreversible. The effects of climate change and extreme humanitarian catastrophes are predicted to come true in the coming years with increasingly stronger hurricanes and wildfires in the United States, annual flooding in Europe, further sea level rise in Oceania, increased water demand in the Middle East, melting of the Arctic ice sheet, droughts and deadly temperatures in areas south of the world's largest non-polar desert, the Sahara.

Tensions are growing in the world, as countries compete for resources and energy advantages against the background of growing humanitarian needs, lack of food security and threats to life and health of the population, potential instability in the world, regional and local conflicts, mass migration. There is a need to protect the world's forest cover, electrify the transport sector, direct financial flows to create an energy revolution in order to prevent the climate crisis. The geopolitical imperative in the foreign and domestic policy of world states to reduce dependence on states that use energy as a weapon of coercion is intensifying.

The global economic challenges caused by the coronavirus pandemic have widened and deepened in countries around the world as demand for vaccines has outstripped the capacity of suppliers and overwhelmed their supply chains. Consumers around the world are facing rapidly rising energy prices and increasing food insecurity, exacerbating phenomena such as migration and corruption. In addition, authoritarian governments often abuse their influence over the global economic order by exploiting their connections and strengths. It is precisely because of this that the costs of the movement of basic goods are increasing quite strongly, using their influence on the world market and control over the global digital infrastructure. They launder and hide their corruption income abroad through shell companies.

The criminal activities of transnational companies are sponsored by states through the use of the digital economy in order to obtain and transfer funds in the field of illegal arms trafficking, carry out terrorist attacks, incite conflicts among the population, extort ordinary citizens using software or cyber-attacks on national health systems, financial institutions and critical infrastructure.

All these challenges and threats to the security environment limit the political capabilities of our state and our allies and partners to advance their own security interests and meet the basic needs of our citizens.

The war in Ukraine contributes to finding ways to form a number of new military and/or political alliances in the world, which will be smaller in size, but more flexible and able to offer their participants more effective security guarantees against the Russian threat. The need to find a solution to the issue of ending the war in Ukraine and providing our country with reliable external security guarantees is already becoming an incentive for reformatting the outdated and ineffective international security system and its institutions.

Obviously, the cumbersome structure of the UN, as the leading international organization in matters of ensuring peace and security of mankind, needs to be reformed, in particular, its consensus decision-making system and complex management system. Reforming such an institution will be a difficult and long-term process. It is already possible to confidently predict changes in the global security environment, which should be considered as risks containing both new opportunities for development and potential threats in the event of disputes on the way to reforming the international security system [9, p. 77].

The war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine caused significant changes in the world economy, changes in the supply chains of a number of raw materials and food products, caused price fluctuations on world markets and a drop in economic growth rates, etc. The economy of Ukraine suffered and continues to suffer significant losses. We can only hope that these losses will be partially compensated by the international community and possible reparations received from the Russian Federation with the decisions of the UN International Court of Justice. However, restoring the economy and human potential of Ukraine will obviously be a difficult and long-term process.

Conclusions. In view of the above, we consider the priority direction of state policy to be the constant monitoring of the security environment in the aspect of national security through its assessment, analysis and determination of development prospects in the field of:

- security and defense;

- search for external security guarantees and development of bilateral relations with strategic partners;

- restoration of the economic and human potential of Ukraine;

- development of the national system of sustainability;

- state construction and management;

- completion of the initiated reforms.

The strategic orientations of the state that we have identified regarding the assessment of the state and prospects for the development of the security environment in the aspect of national security in conditions of war consist in the formation of sufficient economic potential, a stable financial system, and human resources in Ukraine as the basis for ensuring one's own security and stable intensive development [10, p. 231]. Only the independence of the state, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine give the right to choose to participate in collective security systems and/or alliances.

During the war in Ukraine, the main objects of protection, strategic and tactical plans for their protection, mechanisms for ensuring national security and stability were tested for strength. Significant changes in the security environment observed in Ukraine should be taken into account in the post-war construction of state institutions, determination of ways to ensure national security, increase in the efficiency of state administration, etc.

In foreign policy, Ukraine, as one of the founding countries of the UN, has the right to take an active part in the reform of this international organization in order to increase its effectiveness in accordance with the goals, tasks and principles of activity defined by the UN Charter, in order to ensure by taking effective collective measures to prevent and eliminate threats to security and peace in the world.

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