Risk-generating features of the growing external migration activity of the population of the Carpathian region

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Risk-generating features of the growing external migration activity of the population of the Carpathian region

V.Ya. Bidak, I.Ye. Baranyak

Based on the analysis of general and local trends in migration processes, official statistics, data of State Migration Service of Ukraine, State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, and expert assessments of the selective survey carried out in the oblasts of the Carpathian region of Ukraine in the focus of the research of the migration activity environment, the paper provides a comparative characteristics and assessment ofthe impact of migration factors on socio-economic development of the region. The risk-generating features of growing external migration activity of the population and demographic and socio-economic consequences of migration are determined. The risks and threats of high migration activity of the population are emphasized. The need to develop new priorities of the migration activity regulation in the Carpathian region is substantiated.

Бідак В.Я., Бараняк І.Є. Ризикогенні особливості підвищення зовнішньої міграційної активності населення Карпатського регіону

Ключові слова: міграційна активність населення, міграційні ризики, ризикогенність, міграційні процеси, соціально-економічний розвиток, регіон, соціально-економічні наслідки міграції.

Introduction

Problem statement. Migration activity of the population stimulates both economic and socio-humanistic function in forming the trends of sustainable development of the country and its regional social systems. Yet, the fast growth of the volume of migration flows in Ukraine caused by the factors of exogenous and endogenous impact, including those of political, economic, and social nature, are reflected in the perception of migration activity as a certain type of social protection of the population from the growing risk generation in society [1]. Analysis of the features of the population's migration activity, including across regions, confirms the riskiness of the existing situation in the Carpathian region, which can lead to serious challenges to the sustainable development of national and regional economics as well as regional security if the problem is not solved.

The factor of losses of labor and educational-intellectual capacity, territories' depopulation, forming of labor deficit market condition and misbalances on the labor market, and negative impact of migration on the institution of the family become excessively threatening from the viewpoint of its duration, size, and variation (seasonal, circular, chain, educational, migration of persons with their businesses, etc.). Migrants' stay abroad becomes longer up to the temporary migration's transforming to the resettling.

A visible advance in the development of public migration policy has been observed lately, including the development of Ukraine's migration profile [2], i.e. the document providing information on migration situation and migration policy in the country along with the problems faced by the country in the respective domain [3]; implementation of the provisions of the 2025 State Migration Policy Strategy of Ukraine [4], valid State Migration Policy Concept [5], adopted 2018-2021 Action Plan on the implementation of the 2025 State Migration Policy Strategy of Ukraine [6]. Yet, a clear, target-oriented, complex regulation of migrations applicable to the regional level is definitely lacking. There is a need to develop a state program for the realization of migration policy with respective subprograms for regional and local levels: territories with peculiar nature of migration (volumes, level, growth paces, critical consequences), critical demographic, social, and socio-economic threats, and priority problems [7, p. 69]. The preventive creation of proper conditions for returning labor migrants to a decent way of life at their Motherland should be the logical step made by the Government. It includes the confirmation of gained experience, education, getting a job in accordance with qualification, solution of legal, financial, social and living, culturological, other problems of citizens' living activity that inevitably emerge in the period of migration tension up to the emergence of the hysteresis phenomenon in the territorial movement of the population.

It is worth mentioning that institutionalization and transformation from a traditional social movement into a structured social organism (a chain of labor migrants' civil organizations, the infrastructure of the migration services market, and structure of migration capital transfers, etc.) and further into an entity and a tool to regulate human economic activity are the principal features of modern migration. Institutionalized entities of migration relations can lead to producing the specific goals, tasks, principles of their activity organization, can gain certain sometimes conflict forms, properties, and can emerge as territorial migration systems with destabilizing manifestation through lobbying the interests of migrants and Ukrainian state and actions of the donor countries' macro systems concerning the receiving countries [8]. In such conditions, there is a need to carry out urgent reforms of public migration policy and search for new tools to make them efficient with the view to eliminate the defined problem aspects and minimize migration risks and threats.

Analysis of recent research

Scientific research of theoretical-applied aspects of migration and problems related to its management is currently carried out by a range of domestic scientists, including V. Antonyuk, Е. Libanova, V. Kravtsiv, Т. Vasyltsiv, А. Haydutskyi, N. Levchuk, І. Prybytkova, О. Poznyak, U. Sadova, L. Semiv, О. Malynovska, М. Romanyuk, О. Hrishnova, О. Pyatkovska, L. Beztelesna, А. Kolot, І. Bondar, S. Pasyeka, М. Semykina, А. Mokiy, М. Bil, О. Ryndzak, R. Teslyuk, О. Levytska, О. Mulska, etc.; and foreign researchers, including J. Berry, R. Bilsborrow, D. Bloom, B. Ghosh, G. Borjes, K. Kjedstadli, D. Massey, G. Hugo, etc.

The paper purpose is to outline the features of display of functional riskgenerating factors and their consequences caused by growing external migration activity of the Carpathian region's population based on comparative sociodemographic characteristics and to define the priorities of migration processes regulation in the defined region.

Major research findings

High migration activity is one of the peculiar determinants of assessment of the socio-demographic development in the Carpathian region. By influencing all types of human activity, it defines the dependence of the migration behavior on personal needs, is the factor of migration aspirations in outlining the specifics of individual motivation aspect, the mentality of individuals, realization of plans for life, way of life, and generally serves as an indicator sensitive to changes in economic, ethnic-social, and political-cultural life of the region's residents [9, p. 255].

Migration activity level in the oblasts of the Carpathian region is currently one of the highest in the country, which is related to its geopolitical location and the change of labor migration vector towards the European Union. Intense migration activity of the population in the Carpathian region strongly represents the dual nature of the interaction between the factors of both global and regional nature. On the other hand, it is subject to the influence of objective and subjective factors. The dual manifestation of these factors leads to the changes in the established relations in the social structure of the population, the emergence of a territorial asymmetry in terms of the labor price, and blocking the development of sectoral labor markets. Growing intensity and scale of migration are stipulated by the growing mobility of the population, development of transnational corporations, society digitalization, simplified border crossing procedures, etc. Meanwhile, the subjective features are displayed in lower quality of life, the emergence of employment problems, and desire to get an education and succeed abroad.

The analysis of migration statistics, expert assessments, and the results of a selective survey carried out by the researchers of the Region's Socio-Humanitarian Development Department at SI «The Institute of Regional Research named after M. I. Dolishniy of the NAS of Ukraine» in the oblasts of the Carpathian region of Ukraine in the focus of the research of the migration activity environment show that the goal to find a job is the primary reason for the mass movement abroad of the population from the border oblasts. In 2016-2019, the local population of the region mostly left for Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic as well as to other countries of Western Europe - Germany, Italy, and Spain. The results of the structural analysis confirm the strong relationship of the region's oblasts with neighboring countries, namely Zakarpatska oblast with Hungary, Lvivska and Ivano-Frankivska oblasts with Poland, and Chernivetska oblast with Moldova [10].

Meanwhile, despite the positive dynamics of the values of parameters that characterize the migration situation, the oblasts of the Carpathian region remain less migration-attractive for foreigners compared to the general trend in Ukraine (Fig. 1). The international migration balance of the oblasts in the Carpathian region is close to a zero rate. In 2010-2018, international migration led to the growth of population only by 9,400 persons, while in Ukraine - by 188,000.

Fig. 1. International migration balance of Ukraine and oblasts of the Carpathian region in 2010-2018, thous.persons

Source: developed by authors based on [11-15].

International migration lags significantly behind the interregional and intraregional migrations in the general structure of migration flows of the population in the Carpathian region. Thus, in 2010-2018, the share of migrants officially coming from abroad to the oblasts of the Carpathian region was insignificant and ranged from 2.9% in 2010 to 9.0% in 2012. The average rate of international migrants' arrivals (5.1%) exceeded the intensity of their departure (3.4%). Among the regions under research, it is worth noting Zakarpatska oblast, in the first place. The share of migrants leaving abroad in 2010-2018 exceeded the arrival level twice here (Table 1).

Table 1

International migration in oblasts of the Carpathian region in the total structure of migration processes,%

Source: developed by authors based on [11-14].

International migration impacts the gender and age distribution of local residents by changing the ekistic-settlement structure of the population. The results of the analysis of official data on international migration in the Carpathian region by gender show that men prevail among immigrants and women - among emigrants. The number of men arriving from abroad exceeds twice the number of women. Yet, among emigrants, the volume of women migration exceeds that of men. In particular, in 2018, 1374 women and 2629 men arrived in the Carpathian region from abroad, while 3319 and 1433 women and men left abroad, respectively.

The distribution of international migrants by age helped to detect the age peculiarities of the population's migration behavior. Over 40 % of migrants from abroad migrate in student age of 17-20, which confirms a statement about the educational attractiveness of large cities in the Carpathian region for foreigners. Meanwhile, the largest number of departures abroad (slightly over the third part) accounts for the young working age of 22-25. The fact can be explained both by the partial return of foreign students to their countries of origin after graduation and labor migration of the local population of the Carpathian region abroad. It is worth noting that for the economically active age of 25-40, the share of migrants leaving abroad exceeds those coming for a permanent stay from abroad.

Taking into account the changes in the socio-demographic structure of migration flows, including the growing share of young population in the processes of external labor and educational migration (educational migration of youth of the Carpathian region's oblasts increased over 4 times in 2000-2018 and the share of persons up to 35 years old in the age structure of migrants had reached 40%), it is worth emphasizing the growing aspirations of Ukrainian youth to study in the foreign environment and further to become employed abroad. Therefore, the development of efficient mechanisms of migration processes regulation requires not only examining the existing trends but also finding the major motives and perspective migration directions, and assessing possible related risks and threats. It is important to focus on the application of methods and tools as well as sociological procedures while monitoring the information on certain aspects of migration activity research.

Special attention should be paid to examining the issues related to the prevention of migration losses, thus promoting the implementation of the foundations of preventive migration management. A factor of educational migration of youth should be taken into account in forming the system of information and analytical support of migration monitoring and predicting the condition of the youth migration activity in terms of assessing the trends and factors and developing the scenarios and main educational dimensions of the push-environment of migration activity in the Carpathian region.

Zakarpatska oblast stands out substantially by the peculiarities, for instance, of the gender and age distribution of international migrants for a considerable level of emigration of retired persons aged 60-65. In particular, in 2018, about 200 persons in this age group changed their place of residence for a foreign country. The trend can be explained by the close geographical location of Zakarpatska oblast to several EU countries and a substantial number of representatives of the Hungarian minority who want an opportunity to have a level of life and social protection after retirement that are much better than in Ukraine.

The detailed analysis of migration parameters by the countries of emigrants' and immigrants' origin contributed to determining the TOP-10 recipient countries and donors for the oblasts of the Carpathian region.

Geographically, in 2016-2018, most emigrants from the Carpathian region accounted for Hungary (1069 persons). The countries that are popular among the migrants of the oblasts of the Carpathian region are traditional for labor migration countries of the Central and Western Europe: Germany (538 persons), Poland (477 persons), Czech Republic (337 persons), Spain, and Italy (Fig. 2).

Fig. 2. TOP-10 countries-recipients of migrants from the Carpathian region, 2016-2018, persons Source: developed by authors based on [11-14].

Immigration flows of migrants to the Carpathian region in 2016-2018 were mostly from less developed and overpopulated regions of Africa and Asia. India (1841 persons) and Egypt (452 persons) should be mentioned among the leaders (Fig. 3).

Fig. 3. TOP-10 countries-donors of migration for the Carpathian region, 2016-2018, persons Source: developed by authors based on [11-14].

Such results allow concluding that the Carpathian region remains to be attractive for migrants from third-world countries seeking education (India, Morocco, Jordan, Egypt). On the other hand, the Carpathian region is characterized by a substantial emigration capacity. Unfavorable economic situation and close geographic location to the countries of the European Union will further keep the trends of population migration to more economically developed countries.

Structural analysis of migration flows from the Carpathian region abroad and in the opposite direction explicitly shows the close migration links of several oblasts in the region with the countries that are geographically connected by joint borders. Thus, about 100% of the population who had left the Carpathian region for Hungary and returned accounts for Zakarpatska oblast. 73% of emigrants leaving for permanent stay in Poland accounts for Lvivska oblast. 75% of immigrants of the Carpathian region from Moldova have changed the place of permanent stay for Chernivetska oblast (Fig. 4).

Fig. 4. Countries-donors of migration for the Carpathian region: structural-geographic analysis, 2016-2018 Source: developed by authors based on [11-14].

However, official statistics does not take into account the persons working illegally, seasonally and those concealing the fact of leaving for another country. Therefore, the real size of external migration of Ukrainians from the Carpathian region is much bigger and require adjusting. Accessible statistics is not quite reliable because there are substantial differences in the quantitative assessment of the intensity of migration processes and migrants' flows. For example, according to the State Statistical Service of Ukraine, in 2005-2018, a little over 24,000 persons left Ukraine for Germany [15], while according to the same data of the Federal Statistical Office, the rate is already reaching 129,000 persons [16].

Comparison of domestic statistics with the data of other countries also testifies to the emigration misreporting. The difference in, for example, Italian and Ukrainian sources for 2004-2015 was over 100 times, in Spanish and Czech sources against Ukrainian - 27 and 35 times, respectively. It can be explained by the fact that the domestic statistics records all cases of arrival, while the cases of departure aren't registered in full. To put it differently, not all permanent immigrants are deregistered in Ukraine [10].

Inaccurate statistical information on international migration in Ukraine is confirmed by the data of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine (Table 2). Based on the number of border crossings in 2008-2018, one can conclude that the number of population should have fallen substantially due to migration in the period under research because the negative balance of border crossings in the oblasts of the Carpathian region in 2008-2018 was 1350,000 persons.

Table 2

Statistical data of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine on the number of Ukrainians crossing the border in the oblasts of the Carpathian region, 2008-2018

Source: developed by the authors.

In general, the highest level of external migration intensity is recorded in Zakarpatska oblast and the lowest - in Ivano - Frankivska oblast. There are leader and outsider among the other oblasts by economic development parameters - Lvivska and Chernivetska oblasts, respectively. Calculations of integral coefficients of socioeconomic development show a substantial misbalance in Zakarpatska oblast leading to socio-economic disintegration of oblasts [7].

Interconnections and interdependences in terms of external labor migration and socio-economic development of the oblasts of the Carpathian region construct the dimension of main demographic consequences of such migration activity, including the disruption of socio-economic structure of the population, falling absolute employment rates, changing professional structure of the population, falling number of qualified employees, emerging deficit of unique qualified staff, considerable leaving abroad of youth for education, emigration of scientists and teachers, threat of the loss of emigrants' national identity, assimilation losses, growing stratification of the population by the sources of the means of living, etc.

Therefore, a high unregulated migration activity of the population in the Carpathian region causes the problem of the increased risk generation of the systemic nature, when the risks acquire a cumulative effect and the region can turn solely into the provider of intellectual-labor resources of a one-sided «exhausting» territorial migration system. The risks of the cross-border space's asymmetry, migration's intellectualization, dual citizenship, consistent migration links between certain regions, migrants' social insecurity, profession-qualification misbalance on the labor market, and general risks of substantial socio-economic gaps between the oblasts of the Carpathian region and EU countries are those requiring the most urgent solution [10].

Accumulation of risks also leads to the emergence of systemic threats and negative effects and consequences, the elimination of which against the reduction of the migration activity level requires quick application of respective managerial and financial resources. Moreover, their synergy effect is strengthened by the consequences of the Crimea annexation and Russian-Ukrainian war in Donbas with the growing threat of humanitarian risks in the middle-term perspective [17]. Irregular forced migration already has «officially» covered 3.7% of the population of Ukraine. If to add all the population of the conflict territories, including the AR of Crimea, almost 19% of the citizens of the country are trapped in the area of territorial contradictions [8].

Conclusions

The research results show the following critical negative consequences of the growing migration activity processes in the Carpathian region of Ukraine at the current stage: asymmetry of the border territories' development; growing profession-qualification misbalances on the domestic labor market, namely through reduced training and lower supply of qualified staff; loss of a stratum of the most creative working-age youth; further institutionalization of migration chains and systems that promote the realization of migration intentions of the population, falling demand for social services, especially education, and thus reduced opportunities to qualitatively organize the educational process in conditions of external competition.

To eliminate these problem issues and reduce the threats of growing migration activity of the Carpathian region's population, it is necessary to secure the forming and implementation of a more efficient public regional migration policy. Its objective should be defined as prediction and reduction of negative migration consequences for the economy and society, guaranteeing the key components of a region's economic security, and rational management of the migration capacity.

More specifically, the key tasks and priorities of the migration policy should be defined as following:

- recording and analyzing the volumes, level, and structural-dynamic characteristics of migration, predicting its consequences;

- institutional, socio-economic, and legal protection of migrants and minimization of threats to security;

- coordinating the strategic benchmarks of economic development and labor market with migration processes and trends;

- preserving and efficient use of human capacity;

- forming the stimuli to return and reintegrate, secure education and economic activity to the population in the Carpathian region.

Therefore, with the view to prevent, minimize, and eliminate the riskgenerating migration challenges and improve the efficiency of regional migration policy, it is necessary to implement the instruments of organizational, economic, and institutional mechanisms. The most important are the following: development of the system of regional migration policy programming; improvement of the organizational system of migration processes regulation; establishment of the monitoring and information-analytical support of the migration processes regulation, and in general, attraction of the mechanisms of the migration security system. The preconditions of accomplishing the tasks are the following: further reforming the executive authorities in migration in terms of securing the coordinated activity of respective agencies and institutions of the authority of different levels in the migration policy implementation; development of cooperation with civil society, in the first place - with migrants associations in Ukraine and abroad; development of international cooperation following the Ukraine - EU vector; improvement of migration legislation and migration statistics.

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