The limits and opportunities of the agriculture cooperation between China and Russia at the current situation

Russia's recent agricultural program is not only aimed at boosting agricultural production, but also at raising living standards for a third of the country's rural population. We will raise living standards in rural areas and train more agricultural talents, so that more young people are willing to stay in the countryside and make balance the development of rural areas with that of urban areas. In addition, the government has promulgated many protective measures and preferential policies to protect domestic agriculture, such as raising the import tariff of agricultural products, raising the average tariff of agricultural products from 10% to 18%, and having strict health quarantine of agricultural products. Domestic production subsidies for agricultural products, mainly livestock, especially milk, in order to increase production and prevent a decline in livestock Numbers; In addition to output subsidies there are input subsidies, mainly interest rate concessions and subsidies for fertilizer seeds; The government makes intrusive purchases of grain, and when food is in short supply, it puts it on the market. There are also credit incentives for farmers, mainly for farmers to buy agricultural machinery and equipment to give interest subsidies.

Source: FAO

Source: FAO

Source: FAO

Source: FAO

cooperation agriculture trade

2.2 The opportunities and prospects of mutual trade

There are many kinds of forms of regional economic integration, free trade zone is a low form of economic integration degree, it refers to the members area through the agreement to eliminate tariffs, quotas and other trade barriers, make the area between the member states of the goods can flow freely, but between members and non-members still maintained the original trade policy. China has established free trade zones and signed free trade agreements with a lot of countries. Now in China the economic main goal is going out, as the same time is showing strong development advantages. If China and Russia set up a free trade zone, it will push bilateral trade in a better direction by taking advantage of the preferential policies of the trade agreement. The two countries have good geographical advantages, with 22 open border ports on the border. In terms of political relations, they are the member of the BRICS. In 2012, Russia formally became the 156th member of the WTO. After joining the WTO, tariffs, quarantine standards and other standards should be in accordance with the provisions and rules of the WTO, which reduces trade disputes and facilitates the development of trade between the two countries, which will bring new development opportunities to China and Russia.

The scale of trade specifications and agricultural production have been expanding for the two countries. Agricultural products can be divided into agricultural products, aquatic products and forest products and its processed products. Due to the geographical and historical factors, Russia has a good production of aquatic products, it also has been a large number of exports. Although Russia is largest and the most abundant, with vast black land, but food crops have been mainly domestic demand, exports are few. China has become Russia's largest trading partner in recent years, thanks to President Vladimir Putin's agricultural policies, which has boosted output and increased exports. China is also a large grain importer, but it is the second most populous country in the world. Its per capita grain output is little, and it needs a large amount of imports every year. It is also one of the largest grain importers in the world. China and Russia have great differences in agricultural resources and agricultural structure. They are highly complementary to each other. There is great potential for the development of trade between them. They have different natural resources, and they have different scales of production in the same industry, so they have complementary resources. China needs logs, aquatic products and so on, while Russia needs vegetables, fruits and so on. Russia needs China's vast market to increase exports, and China needs Russia's resources to meet domestic demand. The two countries are mutually beneficial and have good prospects for development. Trade between China and Russia is targeted at $100 billion in 2015 and $200 billion by 2020. As the largest trading country of Russia, the far east of Russia is the main region of China agricultural exports, accounting for about 40% of the exports in China. The products trade mainly consists of general trade, followed by border trade, and processing trade, which accounts for about 65%, 20% and 15% of the agricultural products trade. Intra-industry trade patterns complement each other. Octopus and other aquatic products trade scale is large, there is intra-industry trade. Russia is rich in aquatic resources. China imports a large number of fresh or refrigerated fish from Russia, accounting for more than 90%. Chinese products with low added value are mainly general trade, while those exported to Russia are mainly fish products, accounting for more than 60%. The processing trade ratio is significant and the added value of products is high. Although the performance is deficit, the trade pattern has the very strong complementary. While maintaining complementary trade, China should develop vertical or technical differences with Russia in aquatic products by upgrading deep-processing technology and diversifying production. For example, different types of aquatic products are subdivided according to quality and processing methods, so that consumers can choose according to their own preferences and income level; We will open up new areas for China-Russian aquatic product trade, increase the proportion of intra-industry trade, and guide the further expansion of trade. Chapter wood and wood products, for the largest type of Chinese and Russian agricultural trade. Russia is rich in forest resources, accounting for about a quarter of the global total area. Only wood processing capacity is weak, mainly export logs, sawn timber and pulp, etc., for the general trade. China lacks forestry, but it is a big consumer of forest products. Famous brand holy elephant floor, bright furniture, etc., have raw material supply in Russia. However, China has a strong deep-processing capacity, and wood products such as wood-based panels and furniture are exported through processing trade. It can be seen that the structure of supply and demand and trade patterns of forest products between China and Russia are also highly complementary to each other, with great potential for cooperation.

The agricultural trade between the two countries is highly complementary. In Russia agricultural foreign trade market structure is relatively centralized and stable, with neighboring Asian countries and the European Union as its main trading partners. Russia top five agricultural exporters are Egypt, Turkey, China, South Korea and Ukraine. The European Union, Brazil and the United States are major importers of Russian agricultural products, and Brazil is its largest source of imports. Russia has a high concentration of import and export, types of agricultural products, mainly grain, aquatic products and vegetable oil for export, and animal products, fruits and drinks for import. From the perspective of China, it is limited about the increase in the supply capacity of agricultural products, but the demand is rigid, and the dependence on the international market is further strengthened. From the perspective of Russia, commodity exports are excessively dependent on oil, gas, minerals and other resources, while exports of other products, including agricultural products, are restrained to varying degrees. in China imports of agricultural products from Russia are concentrated in forest products and aquatic products, mainly logs, chilled and frozen fish, pulp and waste paper, synthetic rubber, formed timber and railway ties. Imports of logs, chilled and frozen fish and pulp and waste paper have been Chinese biggest imports. The increase of log import is large, mainly due to the growth of China timber demand. Fish imports, have fallen sharply because of the rapid growth in Chinese production of aquatic products. The vegetables, fruits and aquatic products are mainly exported from China to Russia. It mainly including aquatic products, fruits and nuts, vegetables and their root products, fresh vegetables and fruit products. It is an important part of China that trade-in agricultural products. Its main features are as follows: firstly, agriculture bilateral trade has been growing rapidly, mainly with China imports. Secondly, China imports resource-intensive products such as forest products and fresh aquatic products from Russia and exports labor-intensive products, such as horticultural products and aquatic products to Russia, which reflects the differences in resource endowments between the two sides and shows strong trade complementarities. Third, the high concentration of trade products is an important feature that distinguishes China-Russian trade in agricultural products from China trade with other countries of origin of agricultural products. The top two products imported from Russia and the top five products exported from China respectively account for 2/3 of China imports and exports. Fourth, given the complementary advantages of the two countries in agricultural products, as well as the relatively low land border and transportation costs, the scale of China-Russian agricultural trade will continue to expand.

TCI of China's Agricultural Trade with Russia. The trade complementarity index indicates the extent to which the reporting party's export performance matches or complements the partner's import performance. If the resulting high index indicates that the two countries are likely to benefit from increased trade, the results may be useful in evaluating potential bilateral or regional trade agreements. The formula is as follows:

TCI=1 ??{|(??????/????) ? (??????/????)|} /2

Cijk=RCAxik*RCAmjk

RCAkmi=(??????|????)/ (??????|????)

RCAkxi=(??????|????)/(??????|????)

The index of trade complementarity represented by Cij is between the export of country I and the import of country j. According to the definition, the trade complementarity index (Cij) between two countries is larger when the main categories of goods exported by one country are consistent with the main categories of goods imported by another country. The opposite is smaller. Generally speaking, when the value of Cij is greater than 1, it indicates that there is trade complementarity in commodity k between the two countries. When the value of Cij is less than 1, the conclusion is reversed. According to the calculation, the trade complementary index of various agricultural products between Russia and China is very low, especially in aquatic products, vegetables and fruits. The lower the calculated value, the stronger the trade complementarity, which indicates that the greater the possibility of bilateral trade cooperation and the greater the development potential value. In the past two years, the trade deficit between China and Russia has also changed. In some agricultural products, the trade deficit between China and Russia has turned into a trade surplus for the first time.

Source UNCTAD

Source UNCTAD

'One Belt And One Road' offers the wonderful opportunity to establish a bilateral trade area. Under the background of the sanctions against Russia by the United States and the «One Belt And One Road» issued by China, there is a rare opportunity for the construction of regional cooperation and comprehensive cooperative relationship between Russia and China. After the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, European and American countries adopted more severe sanctions against Russia. In response to the crisis, Russia further strengthened its «eastward strategy» and chose China as its partner. In addition, China focus on developing the westward and the introduction of the «One Belt And One Road» strategy are seen as the biggest development opportunities in Russia. Russia located in the hinterland of the Eurasian continent. As the bridge of the silk road economic belt and the main route of the land and sea silk road, Russia is one of Chinese priority countries for cooperation and development. With the further strengthening of cooperation between Russia and China, the strategic concept of «One Belt And One Road» is going on and the impact of changes in the international situation, their trade pattern that agricultural products are undergoing new changes, and intra-industry trade is get more increase, which reflects the increasingly close degree of trade links between China and Russia in agricultural products. In March 2015, China and Russia signed the cooperation agreement on the silk road economic belt and launched the docking, which marked the beginning of a new chapter of practical cooperation in China-Russia trade, with huge potential for China-Russia trade cooperation. In August 2014, Russia banned the import some products from the United States, the European Union, Australia and Canada. Although the period of validity is 1 year, the escalation of the contradiction among them, the extension has been still existed. The development potential of China-Russian agricultural trade under the belt and road strategy, it is based on the agricultural complementarity of the two countries. Russia is rich in arable land, sea and forestry, but it lacks Labour. China has more people, less land and abundant labor resources. China and Russia can learn from each other in agricultural cultivation, animal husbandry, agricultural product processing and biotechnology. More importantly, the types and modes of agricultural trade, both of them are complementary.

Structure of bilateral trade in food products, average 2016-2018, thousand dollars

Source UNCTAD

In Russia the far east and northeast of China have unique geographical advantages. Russia is rich in forestry and aquatic resources, and China imports from Russia the resource products that it lacks, so it has a long-term and stable demand for Russian logs and aquatic products. With abundant labor resources, China exports various daily necessities and processed agricultural products, such as vegetables, fruits and aquatic products, to Russia, easing the contradiction between domestic supply and demand. The structure of Russian import commodities is very similar to that of Chinese export commodities, which provides a broad market opportunity for China-Russian agricultural trade. Russia is the third largest fruit importer in the world, with an annual demand of about 11 million tons. The main imported varieties are citrus, apple, pear, banana, peach, apricot, cherry and grape, all of which are common in China. Russia is the eighth largest vegetable importer with an annual demand of about 16 million tons in the world, while China is the hugest producer and exporter of vegetables on the earth. In the past, the Russian market had advantages in price due to the shorter transportation distance to Europe. The pattern of China-Russian products trade area is gradually distributed in steps. Geographically, China imports of agricultural products from Russia are mainly concentrated in the three provinces of northeast China and Xinjiang, accounting for over 65% of China imports. Then it spread eastward and southward, with other provinces accounting for about 35 percent. There are three regional belts for agricultural exports to Russia: one is the border between Heilongjiang province of China and Russia, radiating to the far east; Second, the border between Xinjiang province and Russia is the border port, extending to Russia; Third, Moscow and other cities as the center to the surrounding diffusion, a echelon of elimination. In the context of the belt and road initiative, China and Russia should make full use of their geographical advantages to promote the development of transport systems, infrastructure and supporting services. For example, in northeast China, in addition to the railway and highway between China and Russia, the air routes between Harbin, changchun, shenyang and dalian and the relevant cities of Russia should also be developed. We will also strengthen the construction of ports along the Heilongjiang, Songhua and Wusuli rivers and develop multimodal transport between the river and the sea. Through Russia port trade zone, cold chain preservation and processing warehouse and other supporting facilities. For example, Heilongjiang province has invested 60 million yuan to establish a cross-border fruit and vegetable export trade zone covering an area of 20,000 square meters, including a customs supervision warehouse, a logistics and transportation warehouse, a refrigerated storage warehouse and a wholesale market. In addition, as the future development direction of international commerce, in terms of e-commerce, it is necessary to speed up the establishment of cross-border e-commerce industrial parks between Harbin and Mudanjiang and Russia, and promote the integration of e-port, logistics system and export performance into the pilot work of customs statistics. The use of the Internet, information flow, business flow, capital flow and part of the logistics, complete integration. High efficiency, low cost, adapt to the new situation of China-Russian trade trend. In recent years, in China agricultural products have been notified by Russia many times due to pesticide residues and excessive levels of heavy metals. We should strengthen the whole-process control of the quality of agricultural products and implement the 1s09000 quality management system in the fields of production, processing and distribution. We will increase support for policies on pollution-free seeds and seedlings, technology research and development, production facilities, quality testing and commodity certification to produce agricultural products that meet international quality standards. At the same time, the timely introduction of foreign advanced technology and equipment, the transformation of traditional production technology, the development of deep processing agricultural products. From labor - and resource-intensive to technology-intensive high value chain. The choice of the path of in-depth agricultural cooperation that focuses on the strategy of «going global». Russia has a severe shortage of Labour and much of the far east's arable land lies idle. The planting conditions are similar to those in northeast China, and there is a good agricultural investment environment. Low rent, lease for up to 49 years, related tax incentives. With investment and development, China and Russia will promote in-depth cooperation in agricultural products trade, agricultural technology and labor export. For example, Heilongjiang Nongken Mudanjiang administration has established a new friendship farm of more than 800,000 mu in Russia primorsky krai region. We will develop overseas grain, vegetable, animal husbandry and agricultural products processing projects to produce high-quality agricultural products that meet the needs of the Russian market. It also can be part of the domestic shortage of agricultural products back to meet the market supply.

In terms of trade settlement, from barter trade to spot trade, the scope of local currency settlement shows a trend of gradual expansion. First, we should establish a yuan-ruble swap agreement with Russia, such as the signing of a scale of 150 billion yuan / 815 billion rubles in October 2014, to reduce the use of us dollars in China-Russian trade. Second, promoting the valuation and settlement ratio of RMB in bilateral trade is beneficial to both sides in the case of unstable rouble exchange rate. Third, we should improve the direct trading mechanism between the RMB and the rouble exchange rate to avoid the impact of the us dollar exchange rate fluctuations. Fourth, we will promote the development of a cross-border RMB payment and settlement system. Dealing with potential risks is also an inevitable trend of RMB internationalization in the future.

At present, Russia is developing to the east, and China's One Belt And One Road economic belt is developing to the west, which is just a combination of the two countries, they should seize the opportunity to consider the establishment of a free trade zone between them. China and Russia have established free trade zones with other countries and regions, but each of them does not have. The establishment of a free trade zone between them is not only in the interests of the two countries, but also in line with the trend of international trade, and the establishment of free trade zone will produce significant trade promotion effect. It is also possible to further eliminate tariff and non-tariff trade barriers, effectively circumvent various unwritten rules of access, minimize the cost of trade, promote free circulation of agricultural products, and promote bilateral agricultural trade cooperation, under the framework of WTO, they will maintain long-term sound development on the track of liberalization, rule of law, standardization and stabilization, and make use of our efforts to bring Chinese agricultural products to the markets of Europe and the Middle East, so as to achieve mutual benefit. The Chinese and Russian governments should establish a bilateral free trade area with a positive attitude. The two sides have complementary economies, sound trade structure, friendly political relations and favorable geographical advantages, which have laid a solid foundation for the establishment of China-Russia bilateral free trade area. Establish a bilateral free trade zone between China and Russia not only serves the common interests of both countries, and the needs of the two countries economic development strategy, both sides make full use of their own advantages, take effective measures, hierarchical, in stages, points area to push the construction of bilateral free trade zone between China and Russia, to make the level of economic and trade exchanges and cooperation that jumped to a new platform, that to improve the economic development of them.

3. The opportunities of the agriculture cooperation between the two countries in some product groups

After the collapse of the Soviet union in 1991, there were four political development stages of China-Russia relations. First, in December 1992, the two heads of state signed a joint statement about the basis of bilateral relations in Beijing, and decided to elevate bilateral relations to a new stage of «mutual friendship». Second, in September 1994, the two heads of state also signed a joint statement in Moscow, declaring the establishment good-neighborly friendship and mutually beneficial cooperation. Third, in April 1996, the two heads of state signed a joint statement in Beijing, confirming the establishment the coordination based on equality and trust and oriented. Fourth, in July 2001, the two heads of state signed the treaty of good-neighborliness, friendship and cooperation between China and Russia, which enshrined in law the peace philosophy of «friendship from generation to generation and never being enemies» between China and Russia. This has pointed the way for the sound development of China-Russia relations, provided the new development opportunity for the agricultural development. Since both of them established the strategic partnership of coordination, they have formed an all-dimensional, multi-tiered and high-quality strategic pattern. The relations of the two countries have become more stable and mature, and the trade among the peoples has become more frequent, which provides opportunities for more prosperous trade in the future and shows that the development prospects of the two countries are very well.

3.1 Current status of soybean trade between China and Russia and its prospects

Currently, there are four major soybean producers on the earth, namely the United States, Brazil, Argentina and China. The United States is by far the largest producer of soybeans, based on production in these countries in recent years. Its output accounts for more than half of the total soybean output, Brazil is the second largest soybean producer, Argentina and China are the third and fourth largest soybean output in the world. Gm soya was grown in 12 of the 23 countries where gm crops were grown in 2007. The United States, Brazil and Argentina are the main producers of gm soybeans. The planting rate of gm soybeans in the United States is 91.9%, 90.4% in Argentina and 70.3% in Brazil. Their output accounts for 82% of global gm output and 90% of global export. The global soybean harvest is divided into two seasons in the northern and southern hemispheres, South America (Brazil, Argentina) soybean harvest is in April and may each year, while the United States and China in the northern hemisphere soybean harvest is in September and October. Therefore, every six months, there is a centralized supply of soybeans. Soybean, as an oil crop, is the global leading supplier of vegetable oil and protein meal. About 0.2 tons of soybean oil and 0.8 tons of cypress are produced per ton of soybeans. Soybean oil made from soybean is a main edible vegetable oil with good oil quality and high nutritional value. As a by-product of soybean oil extraction, soybean meal is mainly used to supplement the protein of poultry, pigs and cattle, and a small part is used in brewing and pharmaceutical industry. In addition, soybean products such as tofu, thousand pieces, bean paste, bean curd, soy sauce, tempeh, etc., delicious food, nutritious, is the traditional non-staple food in east Asian countries. Soybean food has the effect of lowering blood fat and cholesterol, anti-aging, nourishing brain, preventing heart disease and preventing cancer. Soy has been recommended by the world health organization as the best health food of the 21st century. With the continuous improvement of people's living standard, more and more attention has been paid to health. Soybean food will play a greater role in the human health revolution and is widely favored by people all over the world.

Soybean, as an important edible oil, protein food and feed protein raw material, occupies an important position in national food security. China is the origin of soybean, known as the «kingdom of soybean». Soybean processing industry plays a very important role in Chinese agricultural product processing industry. The main soybean producing provinces in China are the three northeast provinces and the provinces of Inner Mongolia, Shandong and Henan. According to the similarities and differences in the climatic and natural conditions of soybean production, tillage and cultivation systems, ecological types of soybean varieties, development history, distribution and range, the soybean regions in China are divided into two levels: in the first stage, China is divided into five regions based on the ripening system of main crops. The second level is the large regional difference of natural conditions in the region divided into 7 sub-areas, according to which the general picture of soybean production can be seen. A northern spring soybean region; Summer soybean area in Huang-huai-hai basin; Three, the Yangtze river basin spring and summer soybean area; Four, southeast spring, summer and autumn soybean area; South China four - season soybean area. From the planting season, soybean is mainly divided into spring sowing, summer sowing. Spring sowing soybeans are usually sown in april-may and harvested in september-october. Northeast China and Inner Mongolia and other regions are planted a season of spring soybean. The summer sowing was mainly sown in June after wheat harvest, and the summer sowing soybean was mostly planted in the Huang-huai-hai area from September to October. From the perspective of planting methods, the planting methods in main soybean producing areas such as northeast China and Inner Mongolia are mainly field monoculture. And other areas, more and corn, peanuts and other crops intercropping. Soybean plays an important role in cropping system as early, soft and fat stubble. Soybean is a typical high-efficiency field crop, under general circumstances, soybean root nodules per acre can fix nitrogen 4-5 kilograms. Wheat system, a year ago the soybean wheat adequate fertilization, soybean is not or less fertilizer fertilizer, deep can good use of the rest of the fertilizer, the wheat, corn and wheat, soybean crop rotation or every other year crop rotation, can obviously reduce the harm of diseases and pests, improve the utilization rate of fertilizer in the same circumstances, rotation than riding could increase by 10%. The development of soybean production is beneficial to the sustainable development of agricultural production.

Before 2000, the United States was main source of soybean imports, accounting for more than half of soybean imports in China. Since the turn of the century, the United States is still the largest source country of soybean import for China in terms of absolute quantity, but its share in the Chinese market has been declining. Brazil and Argentina soybean trade with China is growing fast and on the rise. Not only are soybean exports from the US, Brazil and Argentina crucial to meeting China growing soybean demand, but China is also an important soybean trading partner for the three countries. In China the demand for soybeans is growing fast and the market gap is large, so it is necessary to import some soybeans, which is also in line with the national interest. But unlimited imports of soybeans are bound to hurt the domestic industry. Soybean is the agricultural product that has suffered the greatest impact after China entry into the WTO. The low tariff of 3%, no transitional period, no import quantity restriction and other regulations have made low-priced genetically modified soybeans available from abroad. In this case, some domestic people advocate «two abandonment», one is to give up Chinese soybean production, think that imported soybean is to import water, land and other resources, advocate dependence on imports to meet the domestic market; Second, we should give up Chinese non-gm soybean and advocate the substitution of gm soybean to reflect Chinese soybean varieties. What the «two abandons» give up is the employment of farmers, industrial security and enterprise autonomy in main production areas, which violates the scientific concept of people-oriented development. This lack of understanding of the soybean industry is a gap in the attack of monopoly grain traders. The factors affecting Chinese soybean import include: 1. The influence of tariff quota on soybean import; 2. Impact of technical barriers to trade on soybean import; 3. Domestic and foreign soybean cost, price and quality differences, domestic soybean production cost is higher, such as operation, labor and other costs, land does not reflect the scarcity of arable land; From the perspective of total cost, the domestic price is lower than that of the United States and other countries, while the export price is higher than that of foreign countries. This indicates that the price of soybean is unreasonable, which is related to the single and indirect domestic subsidies. In terms of soybean quality, compared with foreign countries, domestic soybean is non-gm soybean, which is green, safe and suitable for eating, and is welcomed by Japan, South Korea and the European Union. The demand gap of soybean in China mainly lies in the demand of soybean pressing. The imported gm soybean has low price, high oil yield and high soybean meal yield. 4. The influence of exchange rate fluctuations. The appreciation of RMB will affect the import price and quantity of soybean in China. Specifically, the import price of soybeans is relatively low due to the appreciation of the RMB. Domestic soybean crushing enterprises will import more soybeans, and China's soybean import volume will increase, which reflects the close relationship for the exchange rate and the import price of soybeans. 5. Control of the four big multinational food dealer, the domestic soybean supply cannot meet the need of growth, requires a lot of imports, ADM, states, cargill and French Louis dreyfus multinational food dealer took control of most of the soybean trade around the world, such as 80% of China soybean demand rely on imports to meet, no initiative in soybeans pricing in our country, and international food dealer took control of the soybean prices, buy soybean processing enterprise in China. In turn, affects the domestic soybean imports. The domestic soybean processing enterprises were greatly impacted, which also affected the production enthusiasm of soybean farmers in China. 6. The domestic soybean supply is insufficient. Due to different resource endowments, limited soybean planting area, low soybean production technology, and strong competition from wheat and corn, the soybean yield is low under the small-scale family-based management. In addition, the government is not enough to soybean subsidies, which has also affected the enthusiasm of soybean farmers, reduced the soybean planting area; 7. With the development of urbanization, the growth of population and the improvement of the quality of life in China, people's preference for meat, eggs, milk and vegetable oils increases. In the face of the demand gap, we have to import to make up for it.

China soybean import quantity

In Russia 80% soybean and soybean industries are distributed in the far east, 97% soybean for commodity soybean acreage, the influence of China and the Pacific climate, temperature, precipitation is not stable, the spring thaw, a rainy night 4 ~ 5 months of cold climate is cool, soybean average output of 1 200 kg · hm - 2, individual farm output to 1 800 ~ 2 000 kg · hm - 2. In Russia main soybean production areas are the far east (Amur region, coastal region and Khabarovsk region). The frost-free period is 130 d in the south, 111 to 113 days in the central region and 92 to 100 days in the north. At present, there are 12 soybean varieties promoted in production, of which Chinese varieties account for 1.5% and the planting area of promoted varieties accounts for 97%. Soybean planting in the far east is mainly concentrated in the south of the country. The planting date is generally from May 20 to 25 and the harvest is in early October. The soybean planting area of Amur prefecture is 300,000 hm2, accounting for about 70% of the total area of the far east region. Amur prefecture is rich in meadow chernozem soil and has a high level of mechanized cultivation, so Amur prefecture is the soybean planting center of Russia. At present, several high-yielding varieties applied in production include Amur 310, Yantar, all-Russia 1, successor, all-Russia 2, 10/70, Yanjiang-529, Yanjiang-494, and the yield of Zengqu varies from 1 500kg to 2 500kg· hm-2, and the breeding period is 96-124 days. In October, 70, В Н И И С 1, hybrid ga, sonata, ga er MAO, the growth period of 95 ~ 107 d, yield 000 kg · hm - 2, 4 for marina, Khabarovsk region, Novosibirsk region Xinjiang region. Disease and insect pest control mainly adopts crop rotation, soybean crop rotation, perennial grass crop rotation. The method to control weeds in the field: before the emergence of seedlings with a disc rake to treat the soil to prevent Xerospermic weeds, mechanical harvest at the same time the straw will be crushed and thrown into the field and turned into the soil, straw returning to the field, soil fertility.

In Russia soybean industry is mainly located in the far east, the majority of producers and processors of raw materials to establish consistent economic ties, as stipulated in the contract, the production of high quality soybean under the condition of the specialization of crop rotation, after raw materials for the processing enterprises, according to the requirements and responsibility to implement as planned activities and on the basis of business accounting responsibility and authority of management, processing enterprises mainly produce canned, bean cake, soybean oil, lecithin, margarine, flour, feed, etc. 70% of the product sales revenue of cooperation between agricultural enterprises and processing enterprises belongs to agricultural enterprises, and 30% is allocated to processing enterprises. Feed products are all used in agricultural units and users, phospholipids are all used in domestic food industry and pharmaceutical industry, and other products are 80% ~ 90% used in domestic industry, with only 10% ~ 20% exported. The high enthusiasm of soybean processors has boosted the demand for soybeans, among which the Amur state oil refinery has an annual production capacity of about 500,000 tons of soybeans, so soybeans have become one of the most profitable crops in Amur region. In recent years, the continuous expansion of soybean planting area has increased the proportion of soybean planting in rotation, which inevitably leads to the imbalance of the proportion of other crops in production, because the increase of soybean planting area requires not only the consideration of developing wasteland but also the reduction of the area of other crops. From 2010 to 2015, the area of cereal crops decreased by 10%, the forage decreased by 5.7%, and the soybean increased by 82.3%. This trend has a negative effect on the planting structure. Every year to develop soybean planting, many business units continue to plant soybean 2 ~ 4a, resulting in a reduction in the area of cereal crops. Experts believe that this violation of crop rotation will have a negative impact on future crop productivity, with the main results likely to increase inter field clutter, crop diseases, and reduce crop yield and productivity. The diseases that may cause economic loss of soybean include fusarium, sclerotia, brown streak, bacterial and Mosaic diseases. The investigation of soybean production status in Amur prefecture showed that the sowing materials had different degrees of pathogen infection, most of which were pathogens on the stem and leaves.

From 2012 to 2013, in Russia soybean export will reach a new high of 120,000 t. Most of the exports will go to China. The main supplier is Russia far eastern federal zone. China is a big market for soybean demand. In the long view, an effective and realistic way to increase the soybean trade between China and Russia is to expand soybean planting and increase production in Russia, or to allow Chinese enterprises to expand soybean planting in Russia. As early as 2017, Russian soybeans were flooding into China like crazy. In the past year, China has shipped nearly 20, 000 tons of soybeans grown in Russia back from Russia. In the 2017-18 sales year, Russian soybean exports to China increased from 400,000 tons to almost 846,000 tons, as Russia increased its planting efforts. It's doubled. In Russia soybean exports to China are likely to rise to 10m tonnes in the next five years, according to the Russian soybean federation. Russia is eager to enter the Chinese soybean market and sell more soybeans to China.» As far as I know, our soybean exports should have actually doubled last year, but with a thin base, it was about 450,000 tons,» said Andrei Denisov, Russian ambassador to China, according to Sputnik news agency on February 14. That is, of course, a drop in the ocean of Chinese demand. But the direction itself is very promising.» On June 5, Chinese President xi Jinping talks with his Russian counterpart Vladimir put in in Moscow, and Russia is ready to export soybeans and other agricultural products to China. China has also welcomed Russian soybeans into the Chinese market in an effort to diversify imports away from the Americas. «China is the largest soybean importer in the world. China imports about 90 million tons of soybeans from abroad every year, of which more than 30 million tons come from the United States. Under the current situation between China and the United States, Russia should seize the current opportunity to actively participate in soybean exports to China»/

Russia Federation soybean export value

Heilongjiang province is the most important border region of China with Russia and an important node of the «One Belt And One Road» eastern land and sea silk road. It borders five border states of Russia and has a border line of 2,981 km. Soybean is the first bulk agricultural product to implement trade liberalization in China. In recent years, soybean import has shown a significant growth trend. By 2016, China soybean external dependence has exceeded 85%, accounting for more than 65% of the global soybean trade. From 2013 to 2017, Heilongjiang province imported 1,401,000 tons of soybeans, 30 122 batches, with a total value of $430 million, all from Russia. Russia has a large area of arable land, the soil is fertile and most of it is idle. To some extent, it can avoid restarting stubble and reduce the occurrence of diseases and insect pests. Russia is dominated by black soil with deep soil layer and good tillage. The organic matter content is 3.5% ~ 6.0%. 80% of the cultivated land has been abandoned in recent 20 years. Russia soybean impurity rate was lower than those of other countries, to 39 report from the United States, Russia, Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil and Heilongjiang province soybean for testing, the results showed that the Argentine soybean impurity rate is highest, at 2.65%, followed by Uruguay and Brazil soybean, soybean, on average, 2.40% and 1.87%, Russia's soybean slightly higher than Heilongjiang province soybean impurities of impurities, an average of 0.7%.

3.2 Trade in other crop products

The agricultural trade between China and Russia is more and more frequent. In the current international situation, the agricultural products of both sides are not only increasing soybean, but also changing. On the whole, the trade volume of various agricultural products of both sides is on the rise, and its proportion is also on the rise. However, outside the primary agriculture, the total trade volume of other industries has shown a rise and fall. Therefore, as far as the current situation is concerned, the situation of agricultural trade is relatively optimistic, with great development potential, and there is still room for improvement. Both sides are making great efforts to develop agriculture, especially in Russia, which accounts for a growing share of the national economy, and the overall volume of imports and exports has steadily increased. In agriculture, not only has the volume of trade improved, but the volume of trade is growing rapidly, and the trade surplus and deficit status of the two countries is changing. China had a trade surplus in agricultural products until 1998, and a deficit since then until 2008, when the surplus was reversed. But in 2016, for the first time, Russia ran a surplus with China. Basically reached the same level of the Chinese agricultural imports and exports to Russia cut sharply surplus, bilateral agricultural products trade about China and Russia in 2016 than in 2015 increased, show some resilience, that different from the past few years China has always been a surplus status, the situation has turned, that may even become the future in China is in a state of deficit of a turning point for a long period. Second, the sharp drop in total trade was driven by a fall in exports and an increase in imports, all of which, with the exception of horticultural products, were unable to recover to their previous levels. The total amount of 2015, China imported Russian agricultural products respectively increased by 10.9%, 15.67% in 2016, such as animal products, aquatic products, grains and grain products, oil products, such as the annual average appeared more substantial increase, with in 2016 China open on wheat import restrictions for Russian and reduce tariffs of aquatic products and other imports from Russia, future grain, aquatic products and other imports still showed a trend of increasing in the further. The trade of grain and aquatic products is highly complementary, but the structure is concentrated, the existing potential is also great, and will show a growing trend in the future.

In China the exports of agricultural products to Russia are mainly horticultural products. From 1996 to 2016, in China the exports of horticultural products to Russia accounted for an average of 50.66% of the total exports, which further increased to 60.87% in 2016. The second is aquatic products. In the second place was the bulk agricultural products represented by cereals, with an average of 3.23%. But Chinese agricultural commodities imported from Russia in 2016 accounted for the proportion of imports increased to 19.09% from 1.38% in 1996, well above 3.23% in 1996-2016 average, increase imports of commodities to China to a certain extent weakened the agricultural imports species concentration, optimized the one is under the background of the total exports to Russia fluctuation change, that to Russian imports of agricultural products increased steadily. From 2006 to 2016, in China the total import from Russia increased from $1.29 billion to us $1.992 billion, an increase of 54.52%. In 2016 witnessed a significant increase compared with previous years, increasing to 5.95%, indicating that there is a large domestic demand for Russian agricultural products, and Russian agricultural products are playing an increasingly heavy role in the import of products. Second, from 1996 to 2016, more than 80% of Russia's agricultural products imported by China were aquatic products. On the whole, the amount increased from us $183 million in 19976 to us $1.362 billion in 2016. In 2016, China imported 466,700 tons of Russian agricultural commodities, mainly soybeans and corn. Third, China began to increase the import quantity of wheat from Russia in 2014. Although the time is not long, the import amount of wheat from Russia has increased rapidly. In 2014, the total amount of wheat imported from Russia was us 20,200 dollar, and the import amount increased to us 74,100 dollar in 2015. The increase in the quantity of Russian wheat is partly, due to the fact that it meets the quality requirements of the quality inspection authorities in China. On the other hand, it also highlights the huge demand for «hard wheat» represented by Russian wheat in the domestic market.

Figure 1. Change trend of China-Russian agricultural trade from 1996 to 2016

Agricultural products in «Coordination of Trade Names and Coding System» (HSI 1992)

According to figure 2, the trade of agricultural products between China and Russia is roughly the same with dozens of varieties. China's imports from Russia are relatively concentrated, mainly aquatic products, animal fats and fats, and the varieties are relatively single compared with the products exported from China to Russia. We can use export concentration index to calculate the concentration degree of product types. The formula is as follows:

ECI=2v?(5K5V5X|5K5V) 2

In the formula: 5K5V5Xis the export amount of k product in i country; Xi is the total export value of i country. ECI usually takes value between 1v??~1. The smaller the ECI, the more scattered the structure of the agricultural export products of country i; the bigger the ECI, the more concentrated the export agricultural product structure of country.

3.3 The prospects of cooperation between China and Russia on the background of trends in the future development of world agriculture