Study of time indicators of public transport operation depending on the season of the year

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Lviv Polytechnic National University

Technische Universtitat Dresden

STUDY OF TIME INDICATORS OF PUBLIC TRANSPORT OPERATION DEPENDING ON THE SEASON OF THE YEAR

Maksym Afonin, Rushikesh Amrutsamanvar

Lviv, Dresden

Summary

transport public schedule city

Mobility problems in large cities of Ukraine and Eastern Europe are complicated by the fact that the increase of private transport volume significantly exceeds street and road network's capacity. This is most noticeable during peak periods in terms of daylight hours and throughout the year. From the point of sustainable mobility view, this negative phenomenon significantly affects urban public transport, which does not have separate dedicated traffic lines. This article analyzes the issue regarding the deterioration of the transport situation in large cities. The reason for this is the increase in traffic on main streets during the day peaks, as well as the presence of seasonal traffic factors. If the issue of the occurrence and traffic jams duration and the increase in the correspondence time of private transport is sufficiently studied, then the problems of changing the schedules of public transport and taking into account the increase in the trip duration depending on the time of year need to be clarified. The routes of public transport, which do not have a separate infrastructure and move in the general flow together with private cars, were chosen for the study. According to the results of remote monitoring of public transport, a change in the trip duration and time lost due to the boarding and disembarking of passengers on similar trolleybus routes in different seasons was established. Based on the obtained data, a matrix of trip duration unevenness coefficients for public transport routes was formed, and a measure of the seasonality effect on these indicators was established. The obtained results make it possible to quantitatively determine the influence of the season and time of the day on the change in the trip duration, which can be applied in further studies using simulation tools and for practical use in drawing up seasonal traffic schedules. The results of the research complement the currently relevant scientific works, which concern the problems of seasonal mobility, as well as the influence of the social infrastructure objects functioning (schools, kindergartens, and other educational institutions) of cities on the peak load of the street and road network, which extends the duration of traffic not only for private but also public transport.

Key words: traffic volume, public transport, trip duration, coefficient of unevenness, seasonality of traffic, speed of connection.

Анотація

ДОСЛІДЖЕННЯ ЧАСОВИХ ПОКАЗНИКІВ РОБОТИ ГРОМАДСЬКОГО ТРАНСПОРТУ ЗАЛЕЖНО ВІД ПОРИ РОКУ

Проблеми мобільності у великих містах України та Східної Європи ускладнюються тим, що збільшення інтенсивності приватного транспорту значно перевищує пропускну здатність вулично-дорожньої мережі, а найбільше це відчутно у пікові періоди не лише світлового дня, але і року. З погляду стійкої мобільності це негативне явище істотно впливає на міський громадський транспорт, який не має окремих виділених ліній руху. В статті проаналізовано питання щодо погіршення транспортної ситуації у великих містах, спричиненого підвищенням інтенсивності руху на магістральних вулицях в пікові періоди доби, а також наявністю сезонних чинників руху. Якщо питання виникнення та тривалості заторів та збільшення часу кореспонденцій приватного транспорту є досить вивченим, то проблеми зміни графіків руху громадського транспорту та врахування збільшення тривалості рейсів залежно від пори року потребують уточнення. Для дослідження вибрано маршрути руху громадського транспорту, який не має окремої інфраструктури і здійснює рух в загальному потоці разом із приватними автомобілями. За результатами дистанційного спостереження за громадським транспортом встановлено зміну тривалості рейсів та втрат часу за рахунок посадки-висадки пасажирів на подібних тролейбусних маршрутах в різні сезони. На основі отриманих даних сформовано матрицю коефіцієнтів нерівномірності тривалості рейсів для маршрутів громадського транспорту та встановлено ступінь впливу сезонності на ці показники. Отримані результати надають можливість кількісно визначити вплив пори року та часу доби на зміну тривалості рейсів, що може бути застосованим як у подальших дослідженнях з використанням засобів імітаційного моделювання, так і у практиці під час складання сезонних розкладів руху. Результати досліджень доповнюють актуальні на цей час наукові праці, які стосуються проблем сезонної мобільності, а також впливу функціонування об 'єктів соціальної інфраструктури (школи, дитячі садочки та інші заклади освіти) міст на пікове навантаження вулично-дорожньої мережі, що подовжує тривалість руху не лише приватного, але і громадського транспорту.

Ключові слова: інтенсивність руху; громадський транспорт; тривалість рейсу; коефіцієнт нерівномірності; сезонність руху; швидкість сполучення.

INTRODUCTION

Uneven traffic volume is a common phenomenon for most cities with more than 200,000 inhabitants. In such conditions, the area of an average settlement begins to develop unstably, which provokes an increase in the number of not only labor correspondence but also educational and cultural correspondence. It is easily explained by the increase in the average travel distance when walking takes too much time, and there is a need to increase the speed of connection. In this case, correspondence begins to be distributed by movement modes, and the share of each one is unique for each settlement. It is formed, taking into account the general living standard of the population (the ability to purchase and maintain a car), the state of public transport development, and the spatial structure of the city. Correspondences of the studied city (by type of movement) are as follows: walking - 18 %, public transport - 54 %, private car - 43 %, and bicycle - 6 % [1].

It is also worth mentioning a phenomenon of pendulum migration since it is a factor that partially affects the distribution of correspondence within the agglomeration, which in our conditions consists of movements by private car - 52 %, instead of public transport - 42 % [2]. Therefore, the correspondence structure, if taken in general, is divided in half between the use of private cars and public transport. Such a high level of car use inevitably leads to complications in road traffic, even with an insignificant level of motorization (about 250 cars per 1,000 inhabitants) in the considered settlement [3]. In addition, such conditions are sufficient for the fact that the street and road network, as well as the transport system of the city as a whole, experienced fluctuations in correspondence not only during peak periods but also at different times of the year.

RESEARCH STATEMENT

There is no doubt about the relevance of the public transport time indicators issue. That is why a study of transport service quality is of great importance in the era of urban mobility. Knowledge of urban transport problems can help with the construction of further strategies for the city's transport systems development, and they are classically formed according to three scenarios, which are shown in Fig. 1 [4].

Fig. 1 Levels of urban mobility depending on the scenarios of the development of transport systems [4]

This diagram clearly shows the evolution of typical transport systems of Eastern European cities when settlements of type “C”, at the moment of slowing down of bus lines, either transform a transitoriented system or become car-dependent. This point is critical at the stage of transport system development. Therefore, the issue of traffic forecasting, as well as assessment of the public transport lines' time characteristics, requires constant study and monitoring.

Currently, a significant amount of research is focused on traffic forecasting in large cities and at the regional level. The majority of scientists working on this issue, for the most part, start from the fact that it is necessary to study the correspondence of the urban population constantly to predict the movement,. Thus, it is proposed in the paper [5-6] to study the factors of seasonal fluctuation of traffic volume with the help of mathematical modeling and artificial intelligence models. The authors of the papers [7] considered the method of estimating fluctuations in the volume of movement based on typological analysis and fuzzy logic. In this paper, traffic volume forecasting on various streets and roads in the area of Venice was carried out, and the objects of the street and road network were proposed to be divided into several groups. The results of modeling the average annual daytime traffic volume indicated that during the holiday season, traffic in the city increases by more than 50 %. In addition, authors [8] described passenger flow unevenness and relocation of bus use under COVID-19.

The assessment of seasonal decomposition in road traffic was carried out in the paper [9], where, based on personal cars' movement open data in the city of New York, regularities in traffic changes in different seasons of the year were assessed. It was also established that for different objects of the street and road network, the seasonal decomposition is significantly differentand sometimes even absent, which indicates an individual approach to the study of this issue since the configuration of the transport network of cities is an individual characteristic.

In papers [10-11], a topological analysis of the change in the average speed of traffic based on big data was carried out. Also, the seasonal change in speed modes was studied in the article [12]. The authors of this publication used a Kalman filter depth graph and neural networks to detect atypical changes in traffic. Similar studies were carried out by scientists in the paper [13], where a forecast of changes in average traffic speeds on main streets of large cities in the USA was made.

The considered sources give an understanding of the fact that a large number of studies are devoted to seasonal changes in road traffic, and the purpose of these works was to forecast the volume of correspondence and identify atypical modes of movement. Extending the duration of public transport routes was mentioned to a lesser extent in the reviewed sources. In such conditions, it is worth supplementing the already available research results with temporal measurements of changes in road traffic (and especially in the operation of public transport), taking into account seasonality. Since the problems of changing the time indicators of public transport work need to be studied by a real-time method for their further forecasting, the research presented in this article is relevant.

Based on the literature analysis, the purpose of the study is to determine the patterns of changes in the movement time of urban public transport units during the peak periods of the working day at different times of the year. The object of the research is urban public transport routes, and the scope of research is the regularities of trip time change, considering seasonality.

It is necessary to solve the following tasks to achieve the goal of the research:

- to carry out a sampling of public transport with a similar configuration;

- to calculate duration of trips and the boarding and disembarking of passengers in different periods of the day using the method of remote monitoring;

- to compare research results for different seasons and to express quantitatively the degree of extension of public transport trips' duration during the working day in different seasons of the year.

The expected results of the conducted research and their analysis are the basis, in the form of the trip duration unevenness coefficients, for further study of the loading level impact regularities for the street and road network on the stability of the public transport system. It is also worth noting that, at this time, there is no possibility to obtain time indicators of public transport operation using an automated method. However, using remote traffic monitoring systems, data on the departure and arrival of moving units is sufficient, which can be aggregated into a data set for its further analysis.

CHARACTERISTICS OF RESEARCH OBJECTS AND METHODS OF THEIR CONDUCT

The investigated objects are two trolleybus routes which are similar in their configurations, because they:

- are radial;

- have a share of chord mileage;

- pass through the arterial streets.

M. Afonin, R. Amrutsamanvar Diagrams of the studied trolleybus routes are shown in Fig. 2.

Route №1 (R1)