Valuing the joint effect of adult literacy and economic growth on renewable energy consumption in African zone

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Valuing the joint effect of adult literacy and economic growth on renewable energy consumption in African zone

Tanbir Hossain

Purpose: in this paper, the author tries to find out how the major two variables in economy called Economic growth (EG) and adult literacy rate (ALR) influence the behaviour of African people in different zones on renewable energy consumption (REC).

Design/Method/Approach: The research is basically quantitative in nature and 52 African counties have been selected zonal-wise considering time series database from 1990 to 2018 (nearly 29 years). It is observed that EG has positive and significant impact on REC in Northern Africa Zone (NAZ) and ALR has positive and significant on REC in NAZ and Eastern African Zone (EAZ). Conversely, EG and ALR act as joint effect, it emphasises positive and significant on REC in EAZ only.

To grab my most of the developing and underdeveloped economies, where their education level and economic growth can be influencing factors to change their behavioural characteristics to use renewable energy to ensure income and environmental sustainability.

Practical implications (if applicable): This paper is constructed by zonal-wise which will help future researchers to build-up behavioural changing polices on REC in zonal basis. The developing and under developing economies can be somehow dependent on the population-behaviour which can affect to ensure environmental and social-sustainability.

Paper type: theoretical.

Key words: renewable energy, economic growth, adult literacy rate, sustainable development, environmental sustainability.

Оцінка спільного впливу грамотності дорослих та економічного зростання на споживання відновлюваної енергії в африканській зоні

Танбір Хоссейн

Мета роботи: у статті автор намагається з'ясувати, як дві основні змінні економіки - економічне зростання та рівень грамотності дорослих впливають на поведінку африканців у різних зонах щодо споживання відновлюваної енергії.

Дизайн/Метод/Підхід дослідження: Дослідження в основному носить кількісний характер, для дослідження було відібрано 52 африканські країни за зонами з урахуванням бази даних часових рядів з 1990 по 2018 рік (майже 29 років). Помічено, що економічне зростання має позитивний і значний вплив на споживання відновлюваної енергії в зоні Північної Африки, а рівень грамотності дорослих має позитивний і значний вплив на споживання відновлюваної енергії в зоні Північної Африки і Східно- африканській зоні. І навпаки, економічне зростання та рівень грамотності дорослих діє як спільний ефект, він підкреслює позитивний і значуще споживання відновлюваної енергії тільки в Східно-африканській зоні.

Результати дослідження: Практика сталого розвитку та соціальний розвиток є взаємопов'язаними проблемами, які намагаються охопити більшість країн, що розвиваються та слаборозвинених економік, де їхній рівень освіти та економічне зростання можуть впливати на зміни їх поведінкових характеристик, щоб використовувати відновлювані джерела енергії для забезпечення доходів та екологічної стійкості.

Практична цінність дослідження: Ця стаття побудована зонально, що допоможе майбутнім дослідникам розробити політику зміни поведінки на REC на зональній основі. Економіка, що розвивається, і країни, що розвиваються, можуть якось залежати від поведінки населення, яка може вплинути на забезпечення екологічної та соціальної стійкості.

Тип статті: теоретична.

Ключові слова: відновлювані джерела енергії, економічне зростання, рівень грамотності дорослих, сталий розвиток, екологічна стійкість.

economic growth african people renewable energy

Introduction

For analysing the joint hypothesis testing, the author considers some variables which do not include two variables named Economic growth (EG) and Average Literacy Rate (ALR) in model.

Ho: Null Hypothesis: EG=ALR=0

In this paper, the author tries to find out the effect of independent variables on dependent variable name, named renewable energy consumption, in zonal-wise. The author compares the two different models named unrestricted and restricted to measure the impact in zonal-basis.

3. Research Result

From the table no 3, it is found that how does economic growth and adult literacy rate affect renewable energy consumption positively or negatively. On the other hand, from Table 4, is it observed that how economic growth and adult literacy rate jointly can affect REC level in zonal wise.

3.1 Multiple Regression Result for General and Socio-economic Variables

3.1.1 Multiple Regression Result of Northern Africa

3.1.1.1 Multiple Regression Result of General Variables in NAZ

In this area, EAP has negative connectivity with renewable energy usage, if the electricity access has been increased by 1 percent, then renewable energy usage will be reduced by 37 percent, that is 1 percent level of statistically significant. If the AL has been increased by 1,00,000 square kilometres, then renewable energy consumption will be reduced by 5 percent. If the Population density (people per sq. km of land area) has been increased by 1 percent, then renewable energy consumption will be reduced by 57 percent, it is statistically significant at 1 percent level.

Table 3 - Zonal-wise multiple regression analysis for African countries

Source: Author's Own Compilation 2022

If the TP has been increased by 1,00,000 then renewable energy consumption will be reduced by 1 percent, it is it is statistically significant at 1 percent level. If the economic growth has been increased by 10 percent, renewable energy consumption will be increased by 0.38 percent. If the Research and development expenditure (% of GDP) has been increased by 1 percent, then renewable energy consumption will be increased by 10 percent, it is statistically significant at 1 percent level. If the PPEI (private Investment in energy sector) has been increased by 1000 US$, then renewable energy consumption will be increased by significant rate. If the Trade (% of GDP) has been increased by 100 percent, then renewable energy consumption will be reduced by 6.8 percent, it is statistically significant at 5 percent level. If the CA has been increased by 1000 US$, then renewable energy consumption will be increased. If the carbon emission has been increased by 10,000 KT, including all agro and non-agro product burning, then then renewable energy consumption will be increased by 1 percent, it is statistically significant at 1 percent level. If the density of urban population in total population has been increased by 1 percent, then renewable energy consumption will be decreased by 3.5 percent, it is statistically significant rate 1 percent level. If the Energy imports, in net (% of energy use) has been increased by 10 percent, then then then renewable energy consumption will be increased by 0.33 percent, it is statistically significant at 1 percent level. If the LE has been increased by 1 year, people will be willing to search alternative energy to fulfil their daily demand, renewable energy will be increased by 8.6 percent, it is statistically significant at 1 percent level.

Table 4 - Interacted Multiple Regression Analysis in Zonal-wise

Source: Author's Own Compilation 2022

3.1.1.2 Multiple Regression Result of Socio-economic Variables in NAZ

The author only considers socio-economic variables in this section. If the GDP level has been increased by 1000 US$, then renewable energy will be reduced by 2 percent. GDP level does not create positive impact on renewable energy consumption level in Northern African. If the Population density (people per sq. km of land area) has been increased by 10 percent, then renewable energy consumption will be increased by 4.25 percent, it is statistically significant at 1 percent level. If the Average Literacy Rate (LR) has been increased by 10 percent, then renewable energy consumption will be increased by 2.64 percent, it is statistically significant at 5 percent level. A Literate people will be eager to find out new and green energy sources with their existing knowledge. If the LE has been increased by 1-year, renewable energy consumption will be decreased by 6.91 percent, it is statistically significant at 1 percent level.

3.1.2 Multiple Regression Result of Eastern African Zone

3.1.2.1 Multiple Regression Result of General Variables (EAZ)

If the Electricity production from renewable sources, excluding hydroelectric (kWh) has been increased, then renewable energy consumption will be reduced. People will not be conscious to usage alternative energy. But in the long run, it will hamper their renewable energy storage in future. If the Electricity production from coal sources (% of total) has been increased 10 percent, then renewable energy consumption will be increased by 1.54 percent, it is statistically significant at 5 percent level. If the Electricity production from oil sources (% of total) has been increased by 10 percent, renewable energy consumption will be increased by 0.891 percent, it is statistically significant at 1 percent level. If the Electricity production from natural gas sources (% of total) has been increased by 10 percent, renewable energy consumption will be decreased by 5.24 percent, it is statistically significant at 1 percent level. If the Access to electricity (% of population) has been increased by 1 percent, renewable energy consumption will be decreased by 1.82 percent, it is statistically significant at 1 percent level. If the labour force participation rate for ages 15-24 has been increased by 100 percent, renewable energy consumption will be decreased by 8.6 percent, it is statistically significant at 5 percent level. If the AL has been increased by 10,000 square kilometres, then renewable energy consumption will be increased by 1 percent, it is statistically significant at 1 percent level. Conversely, if the GDP level has been increased by 1000 US$, renewable energy consumption has been reduced by 2 percent, it is statistically significant at 1 percent level. If the TP has been increased by 1,00,000 then renewable energy consumption will be reduced, it is it is statistically significant at 1 percent level. The terms of trade (TOT) has positive connection with renewable energy consumption. If the Research and development expenditure (% of GDP) has been increased by 1 percent, then renewable energy consumption will be increased by nearly 12 percent, it is statistically significant at 1 percent level. If the Pump price for gasoline (US$ per liter) has been increased, renewable energy consumption will be increased by 3.44 percent. When the gasoline price will be increasing at continuous rate, then people will take important steps to usage renewable energy. Renewable energy might be the important source to fulfil daily energy demand as well as to ensure energy security. If the CA has been increased by 1000 US$, then renewable energy consumption will be increased at significant rate. If the carbon emission has been increased by 1,000 KT, including all agro and non-agro product burning, then then renewable energy consumption will be decreased by 1 percent, it is statistically significant at 1 percent level. If the density of urban population in total population has been increased by 10 percent, then renewable energy consumption will be decreased by 2.53 percent, it is statistically significant rate 1 percent level.

If the Energy imports, in net (% of energy use) has been increased by 100 percent, then then then renewable energy consumption will be increased by 0.80 percent, it is statistically significant at 1 percent level. When a country bears huge burden of cost for importing energy from abroad, those country will be optimistic to introduce renewable energy. If the LE has been increased by 1 year, people will be willing to search alternative energy to fulfil their daily demand, renewable energy will be decreased by 1.68 percent, it is statistically significant at 1 percent level.

3.1.2.2 Multiple Regression Result of Socio-economic Variables in EAZ

If the GDP level has been increased by 1000 US$, then renewable energy will be reduced by 2 percent. GDP level does not create positive impact on renewable energy consumption level in Eastern African zone. If the Population density (people per sq. km of land area) has been increased by 10 percent, then renewable energy consumption will be increased by 0.17 percent, it is statistically significant at 1 percent level. If the Average Literacy Rate (LR) has been increased by 10 percent, then renewable energy consumption will be increased by 2.92 percent, it is statistically significant at 1 percent level. In addition, literacy rate in eastern African zone create positive impact to consume renewable energy. If the LE has been increased by 1 year, renewable energy consumption will be decreased by 2.043 percent, it is statistically significant at 1 percent level. Moreover, income inequality has negative connection with renewable energy consumption, if the income inequality increases by 10 units, then renewable energy consumption will be decreased by 3.13 percent, it is statistically significant rate 10 percent level. When there are inequality exists between poorer and rich class, the government will not take any positive initiative to introduce renewable energy consumption in general people in Eastern Africa.

3.1.3 Multiple Regression Result of Middle African Zone

3.1.3.1 Multiple Regression Result of General Variables (MAZ)

In this area, EAP has positive connectivity with renewable energy usage, if the electricity access has been increased by 10 percent, then renewable energy usage will be increased by 5.4 percent, that is 1 percent level of statistically significant.

If the labour force participation rate for ages 15-24 has been increased by 10 percent, renewable energy consumption will be decreased by 1.7 percent, it is statistically significant at 5 percent level. Conversely, if the GDP level has been increased by 1000 US$, renewable energy consumption has been reduced by 3 percent, it is statistically significant at 1 percent level. If the Population density (people per sq. km of land area) has been increased by 10 percent, then renewable energy consumption will be increased by 1.97 percent, it is statistically significant at 1 percent level. The terms of trade (TOT) has positive connection with renewable energy consumption. When the export exceeds than import, TOT stands positive, if the TOT increases by 10 percent, REC will be increased by 1.54%, it is statistically significant at 1 % level. If the average literacy rate has been increased by 10 percent, renewable energy consumption will be increased by 0.38 percent, it is statistically significant at 1 % level. If the investment on PPEI has been increased, then REC will be increased significantly. If the NRU has been increased by 10 percent, REC will be decreased by 5.33%, it is statistically significant at 1 % level. If the Pump price for gasoline (US$ per litre) has been increased by 1 %, renewable energy consumption will be decreased by 8.098 percent. Adversely, CA and CE have negative and significant connectivity with REC. If the energy import cost has been increased by 1000 dollar, renewable energy consumption will be increased by 5 percent.

3.1.3.2 Multiple Regression Result of Socio-economic Variables in MAZ

If the GDP level has been increased by 1000 US$, then renewable energy will be reduced by 3 percent. GDP level does not create positive impact on renewable energy consumption level in Eastern African zone. If the Population density (people per sq. km of land area) has been increased by 10 percent, then renewable energy consumption will be increased by 2.95 percent, it is statistically significant at 1 percent level. If the economic growth has been increased by 10 percent, renewable energy consumption will be decreased by 1.63 percent, it is statistically significant at 5 percent level.

If the Average Literacy Rate (LR) has been increased by 10 percent, then renewable energy consumption will be decreased by 8.27 percent, it is statistically significant at 1 percent level. In addition, literacy rate in eastern African zone create positive impact to consume renewable energy. If the LE has been increased by 1 year, renewable energy consumption will be increased by 1.77 percent, it is statistically significant at 1 percent level. Moreover, income inequality has negative connection with renewable energy consumption, if the income inequality increases by 10 units, then renewable energy consumption will be decreased by 7.52 percent, it is statistically significant rate 10 percent level.

3.1.4 Multiple Regression Result of Southern African Zone

3.1.4.1 Multiple Regression Result of General Variables (SAZ)

In this area, EAP has negative connectivity with renewable energy usage, if the electricity access has been increased by 10 percent, then renewable energy usage will be decreased by 1.31 percent, that is 5 percent level of statistically significant.

If the labour force participation rate for ages 15-24 has been increased by 10 percent, renewable energy consumption will be decreased by 1.52 percent, it is statistically significant at 5 percent level. If the Population density (people per sq. km of land area) has been increased by 10 percent, then renewable energy consumption will be decreased by 4.67 percent, it is statistically significant at 5 percent level. The terms of trade (TOT) has positive connection with renewable energy consumption. When the export exceeds than import, TOT stands positive, if the TOT increases by 10 percent, REC will be increased by 1.47%, it is statistically significant at 1 % level. If the urban density has been increased, then renewable energy consumption will be decreased by 5.88 percent.

3.1.4.2 Multiple Regression Result of Socio-economic Variables in SAZ

If the labour force (LR) has been increased by 10 percent, then renewable energy consumption will be decreased by 3.25 percent, it is statistically significant at 1 percent level.

If the Population density (people per sq. km of land area) has been increased by 10 percent, then renewable energy consumption will be increased by 2.82 percent, it is statistically significant at 1 percent level. If the economic growth has been increased by 10 percent, renewable energy consumption will be decreased by 1.63 percent, it is statistically significant at 5 percent level.

If the LE has been increased by 10 years, renewable energy consumption will be decreased by 2.52 percent, it is statistically significant at 10 percent level. Moreover, income inequality has negative connection with renewable energy consumption, if the income inequality increases by 10 units, then renewable energy consumption will be decreased by 4.12 percent, it is statistically significant rate 1 percent level.

3.1.5 Multiple Regression Result of Western African Zone

3.1.5.1 Multiple Regression Result of General Variables (WAZ)

In this area, if energy production from coal resources has been increased by 10 percent, renewable energy consumption will be reduced at 2.1%, that is 1 percent level of statistically significant. Similarly, if energy production from oil resources has been increased by 10 percent, renewable energy consumption will be reduced at 0.58%, that is 1 percent level of statistically significant. Conversely, energy production from gas resources has positive and significant connectivity with REC. If the electricity access has been increased by 10 percent, then renewable energy usage will be decreased by 1.33 percent, that is 5 percent level of statistically significant. Agro-land has negative connectivity with REC, if the agro-land has been increased by 10,000 Sq, then REC will be reduced by 1 percent, it is statistically significant at 1 percent level. Moreover, if the GDP level has been increased by 1000 US$, renewable energy consumption has been.

If the average literacy rate has been increased by 10 percent, renewable energy consumption will be decreased by 0.82 percent, it is statistically significant at 10 % level. If the research and development cost (RDC) has been increased by 1 percent, renewable energy consumption will be decreased by 4.86 percent, it is statistically significant at 1 % level. If the Pump price for gasoline (US$ per litre) has been increased by 1 %, renewable energy consumption will be increased by 4.85 percent, it is statistically significant at 1 % level. When the gasoline price is rising, people will try to find alternative energy sources to fulfil their demand. Adversely, CA, CE, DU, EI, LE and II has negative and significant connectivity with REC.

3.1.5.2 Multiple Regression Result of Socio-economic Variables in WAZ

If the labour force (LR) has been increased by 10 percent, then renewable energy consumption will be decreased by 1.19 percent, it is statistically significant at 1 percent level. If the GDP level has been increased by 1000 US$, then renewable energy will be reduced by 9 percent, it is statistically significant at 1 percent level.

If the average literacy rate has been increased by 10 percent, renewable energy consumption will be decreased by 1.39 percent, it is statistically significant at 1 % level. If the LE has been increased by 1 year, renewable energy consumption will be decreased by 1.39 percent, it is statistically significant at 1 percent level.

3.2 Multiple Regression Result Interacted or Joint Variables

In this multiple, the author considers economic growth and average literacy rate as joint variable and measure their joint effect on renewable energy consumption. In the zone EAZ, the joint effect of economic growth average literacy rate affects positively on renewable energy consuming level. If the joint variable value increase by 10 units, the renewable energy consuming level will be increased by 1.7%.

3.3 Hypothesis Testing

From the restricted and unrestricted regression, the author tries to find out whether there are any effect of economic growth (EG) and average literacy rate (ALR) on the model or not.

Null Hypothesis: EG =ALR = 0 Alternative Hypothesis: EG * ALR * 0

Model 1: Restricted Model

REC ~ EAP + LF + AL + GDP + PD + TP + TOT + RDC + PPEI + NRU + TO + GP + CA + CE +UPD + EI + LE + II

Model 2: Unrestricted Model

REC ~ EAP + LF + AL + GDP + PD + TP + TOT + EG + ALR + RDC + PPEI + NRU + TO + GP +CA + CE + UPD + EI + LE + II

Source Author's Own Compilation 2022

From the above table, it is observed that there are statistically significant effect of economic growth and literacy rate on NAZ economy, it is statistically significant at 5 percent level. For EAZ, the value of economic growth and literacy rate are statistically significant at 1 percent level. Furthermore, for the zone MAZ, values are statistically significant at 5 percent level. Conversely, there are no statistically impact of EG and ALR on SAZ and WAZ.

4. Policy Recommendation

In this research, the author wants to focus mainly two major variables named economic growth and average literacy rate, where these values differ from zonal-wise because of general and socio- economical changes. The government of some zones named MAZ, SAZ, WAZ should introduce adult school and stipend policies due to attending the classes compulsory, cash transfer polices or food for work program (FFW) to enhance the interest among them. From economic growth perspective (EG), except the NAZ, none of the region does not able to produce positive and significant impact on REC. Economic growth can be improved with changing the pattern of fiscal and monetary policies, when the bank and non-bank sectors should provide loan in flexible-condition and make the easier repayment systems. Renewable energy consumption is not only the issues of households or consumer, if the government and non-government institutions provide monetary support to set up solar-plant for each households, and those households will not get all electricity, because households need to change their behaviour on using renewable energy. Example: In rural areas, most of the households have Cattel and housing wastage that may be used to produce biogas, the households may use the biogas to produce renewable energy in daily basis. Firstly, it can lessen their daily cost to consume electricity and convert their mentality to consume renewable energy.

Conclusions

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