The role of South Stream and Turkish Stream in energy security of Europe

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The role of South Stream and Turkish Stream in energy security of Europe

Islamova P. R.,

dissertator, Law and Human Rights Institute (Azerbaijan, Baku), pm060688@gmail.com

Energy security is one of the most important issues in the modern 'world and is as vital as national security. Although the EU has taken measures to ensure its energy security, it still cannot implement a uniform policy in this area. Russia is taking advantage of this situation and afterfailure of the South Stream, it has offerred a new project called Turkish Stream. Russia and Turkey agreed on the project and after the intergovernmental agreement the construction of this pipeline has started. The European Union opposes the project and encourages member states to pursue the same policy. Therefore, the role of Turkish Stream in energy security of Europe remains uncertain, as it is not clear 'whether the EU 'will support the Turkish Stream or TANAP project.

The article studies the above-mentioned issues, were the reasons for the postponement of the South Stream project that Russia initiated before the Turkish Stream, as well as other energy projects and their perspectives in contemporary international relations.

Keywords: energy, security, Turkish Stream, EU.

(стаття друкується мовою оригіналу)

«South Stream» was the gas pipeline that would begin from the Black Sea basin to South and Central Europe, with 63 billion cubic meter capacity. It was assumed that the gas supply would start in 2015. The pipeline had to pass through Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary, Austria, Italy and Slovenia. Macedonia asked to participate in the project. Due to some reasons, the project was cancelled by Russia. Russian president came to this conclusion because of talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that «realization of «South Stream» project was not possible in the current circumstances and called European Union's position on the construction of a gas pipeline non-constructive».

The main reason for such decision was Bulgaria's objection. As a member of EU Bulgaria should get agreement with the organization. According to Putin, Russia's energy resources would be redirected to other markets, including Turkey, which aims to build a new pipeline systems. But it is the choice of our European friends. There is nothing surprising here, they were ultimately exporters», - Putin said. Except of that, Bulgaria will lose at least 400 million euros in a year he added.

European Parliament has adopted a resolution about suspension of South Stream gas pipeline project as well: «There should be another suitable source of supply except of South Stream». After the decision, the part of the pipeline that had been constructed in Bulgaria was dismantled. The construction of this part of the pipeline began in October 2013 with the participation of Russian «Gazprom» company.

Russian government does not waste time and making little changes started a new project, which is called «Turkish Stream». The main difference is the route of the pipeline. In December 2014 Gazprom and the Turkish company Botas Petroleum Pipeline Corporation have signed a memorandum of understanding on the construction of Turkish Stream gas pipeline [1]. The signing took place in the presence of the Russian President Vladimir Putin and the President of the Republic of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Gazprom for the first time without any inter-governmental agreement began to build a gas pipeline in May. Russia was in a hurry and tried to reach European markets before the realization of the Southern Gas Corridor.

However, due to the conflict over the violation of Turkish airspace by Russian military aircraft involved in military operations in Syria, Turkey has threatened to break Russian gas contracts. October 8, 2015 during a flight to Japan in order to discuss «Turkish question» President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Turkey is a major buyer of Russian gas, but if necessary, it can export energy from many other sources. This would be a great loss for Russia.

After that, on November 24, the Turkish Air Force shot Russia's Su-24 aircraft in the Turkish-Syrian border. Turkish Armed Forces said in the statement «they had warned Russian aircraft 10 times within 5 minutes, but they ignored». In order not to spoil relations with Russia, Turkey sent a note to the Russian Foreign Ministry 3 times. Two of these notes were about boundary violations, one was related to the massacre of the Turkmen. Russia showed no reaction to these notes and as a result, this event took place.

However, Russia and Turkey have close economic relations; therefore, such events cannot harm their friendship and cooperation. Half of the state budget of Turkey is formed from tourism revenues and a significant proportion of these revenues come from Russian tourists. In addition, the number of export from Russia to Turkey is significantly great. So last year exports from Russia to Turkey was $ 25 billion. Of course the main export product is energy resources. 57% of gas demand that is 28 billion cubic meters and 30 percent of Turkey's oil consumption, is exported from Russia. Therefore, the relations between two states were restored in a short time. On October 2016, the leaders of these two big countries signed an intergovernmental agreement on the Turkish Stream pipeline in Istanbul.

«You now witnessed the signing of the intergovernmental agreement on the construction of the Turkish Stream. As part of this project and the broadening of our cooperation, we agreed on a mechanism by which to provide a discount on gas [for Turkey]», Putin said at the press conference following the signing of the agreement [2]. Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller said that the Turkish Stream project agreement envisioned the construction of two pipeline branches, each with a capacity of 15.75 billion cubic meters [3]. The first branch will supply gas directly to Turkey, while the second is to be used to deliver gas to European countries through Turkey, he explained. European countries, which are included in the EU, are not agree to get Russian gas through Turkish stream. Because of that second branch of the pipeline will deliver gas to non-EU countries including Serbia and other Balkan states through Turkey. The construction of Turkish Stream is being planned to begin in 2017, and should be completed by late 2019 [4].

EU did not agree with the South Stream because the owner of the pipeline and exporter was Russian Federation. Some political analysts explain it with the Ukraine crises. After the crises, relations between the West and Russia were extremely strained. However, the sanctions imposed by Europe, are not against Gazprom, as this Russian giant company provides 30 percent of the gas consumed in Europe, of which about 15 percent goes through the territory of Ukraine. With Crimea's annexation by Russia the US and Europe understood that Moscow's influence in the Balkans reached dangerous level. Serbia refused to vote in favor of the UN resolution condemning the annexation of the Crimea and join the sanctions against Russia in Europe. After the annexation of Crimea, a number of Serbian nationalist parties have visited Crimea and recognized it as an integral part of the peninsula.

West had to pass an emergency counter attack. Therefore, to prevent the growth of Russian influence in the Balkans, «South Stream» gas pipeline has been suspended.

Greece's strained relations with the European Union and their support to «Turkish Stream» seriously worried the United States. After the statement of Macedonia and Serbia about joining to Turkish Stream, West tried to change the situation in favor of themselves. The US urged through its embassies in the country, not to support Turkish Stream. The government sent a special envoy to Athens in May as they decided to join Turkish Stream. Special Envoy and Coordinator for International Energy Affairs of US State Department Amos Hochstein discussed these issues with Panagiotis Lafazanis, Greece's Minister of Energy and Natural Resources [5]. After a meeting with the American diplomat said that, the US urged Greece to give up Turkish Stream and to support TAP project. He explained that Turkish stream is political project and will strengthen Russian influence in Europe. For my opinion why Athens supports of Turkish Stream» project can be explained by the dependence on Russian gas. Today Greece imports 65% of annual gas needs from Russia. Despite the potential mutual benefits, energy cooperation between Russia and Greece remains only on paper so far. Its future will depend on the decisions by Brussels. «Greece is interested in building a gas pipeline, we are ready to take part in it, but everything depends on Europe», Greek Energy Minister Panos Skourletis told RIA Novosti [6].

Nevertheless, the construction and launch of the pipeline will benefit both Russia and Turkey in certain amount. Turkey will gain followings:

Firstly, after the project, Turkey will significantly strengthen its influence in the south of the EU and its negotiating position with the EU as a whole. Secondly, Turkey is closer to the coveted role as a regional distributor of gas flows and will get transit profits for many years. Third and most important reason that Turkey will benefit from the project is because «Turkish Stream» will be an excellent tool for the restoration of relations with Russia. On the other hand, a positive approach of the government to the TAP and Turkish Stream» projects shows that Turkey plans to turn into the hub in near future.

Russian benefits will be as follows: «Turkish Stream» will help to achieve a number of important strategic objectives. First, it will allow destroying the value of the Ukrainian gas transit. This will lead to the termination of the annual blackmail, which is engaged in Kiev. Yet it will, if necessary, cut off gas to Ukraine without violating our obligations to European customers. Russia and Ukraine have a transit agreement, which expires in 2019. Of course, after that Ukraine will raise transit fee for Russian company. That is why Russia tries to speed up the process of construction and have alternative ways for export of its resources. Second, the emergence of an alternative project of the gas pipeline will make Germany more actively promote the project «North Stream 2» and hard to lobby for its approval by the European Commission. Merkel has already recognized the «Nord Stream 2» purely economic project, and the German business will not forgive her if Germany will miss the chance to become a major distributor of gas to the EU.

On the other side, Turkey imports large part of the energy needs from Russia and is dependent on Russian energy resources a lot. This dependency will increase in the case if Turkish Stream realizes. This situation creates an opportunity for Russia to interfere Turkish domestic policy whenever it wants. From this point of view, EU also opposes Russian energy projects in order not to increase its impact. If this project realizes Russian energy strategy «becoming the sole energy supplier of Europe» will come true. Generalizing all these thoughts, I can say that if Turkey supports TANAP instead of Turkish Stream it will diversify its energy imports as well as to decrease energy dependency from Russia.

energy security turkish flow

References

1. http://forexaw.com/TERMs/Industry/Plants_and_soobruzheniya/ 12292_%D0%A2%Dl%8kk6iotyyujjhi9hjjjbjnjh3%Dl%80%D0%B5 %D1%86%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%B9_%D0%BF%D0%BE%D1%8 2%D0%BE%D0%BA_Turkish_Stream_%Dl%8D%Dl%82%D0%BE

2. https://www.rt.com/business/362279-gazprom-turkish-stream- pipeline/

3. https://www.rt.com/business/362279-gazprom-turkish-stream- pipeline/

4. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-gazprom- idUSKCNHLlX2

5. https://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/09/business/intemational/ greeee-us-russia-energy-pipeline.html?_r=0

6. https://sputniknews.com/business/201609121045232441- europe-russia-turkish-stream/

Ісламова П. P, дисертант, Інститут Права і Прав Людини (Азербайджан, Баку), pm060688@gmail.com

Роль Південного потоку і Турецького потоку в енергетичній безпеці Європи

Енергетична безпека є одним з найбільш важливих питань в сучасному світі, і є таким важливим питанням як національна безпека. Незважаючи на те, що ЄС вжив заходів з метою забезпечення своєї енергетичної безпеки, ця організація, як і раніше не може реалізувати єдину політику в цій галузі. Росія використовує переваги цієї ситуації і після провалу Південного потоку, запропонувала новий проект під назвою Турецький потік. Росія і Туреччина

домовилися про проект і після міжурядової угоди будівництво трубопроводу почалося. ЄС виступає проти цього проекту і заохочує держав--членів бути прихильним цій політиці. У зв'язку з цим, роль Турецького Потоку в забезпеченні енергетичної безпеки Європи залишається неєизначеною, оскільки ще невідомо чи буде ЄС підтримувати Турецький потік або TANAP.

Дана стаття детально вивчає вищезазначені питання, в тому числі причини відкладення Південного потоку, яку Росія ініціювала раніше Турецького потоку, а також згадані енергетичні проекти і їх перспективи в сучасних міжнародних відносинах.

Ключові слова: енергетика, безпека, Турецький Потік, ЄС.