Impact of the 2022 Winter Olympics on Tourism development in China
This report attempts to clarify positive and negative influences of the 2022 Winter Olympics on Zhangjiakou tourism, and try to predict the tourism trend. The author proves the relevance between the 2022 Winter Olympics and tourism of the Zhangjiakou.
| Рубрика | Менеджмент и трудовые отношения |
| Вид | доклад |
| Язык | английский |
| Дата добавления | 18.09.2020 |
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FEDERAL STATE AUTONOMOUS EDUCATIONAL ESTABLISHMENT OF HIGHER EDUCATION NATIONAL RESEARCH UNIVERCITY «HIGHER SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS»
Faculty of St. Petersburg School of Economics and Management
National Research University "Higher School of Economics"
IMPACT OF THE 2022 WINTER OLYMPICS ON TOURISM DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA
Graduation qualification thesis
In the field of 38.04.02 «Management»
Educational program "Experience economy: tourism and hospitality management"
Jia Xingran
Thesis supervisor PhD,
Associate professor Department of management Julia Trabskaya
Consultant Senior Lecturer P. F. Vorob'ev
Saint Petersburg - 2020
ФЕДЕРАЛЬНОЕ ГОСУДАРСТВЕННОЕ АВТОНОМНОЕ
ОБРАЗОВАТЕЛЬНОЕ УЧРЕЖДЕНИЕ ВЫСШЕГО ОБРАЗОВАНИЯ
«НАЦИОНАЛЬНЫЙ ИССЛЕДОВАТЕЛЬСКИЙ УНИВЕРСИТЕТ
«ВЫСШАЯ ШКОЛА ЭКОНОМИКИ»
Факультет Санкт-Петербургская школа экономики и менеджмента
Национального исследовательского университета «Высшая школа
экономики»
ВЛИЯНИЕ ЗИМНЕЙ ОЛИМПИАДЫ 2022 НА РАЗВИТИЕ ТУРИЗМА В КИТАЕ
Выпускная квалификационная работа - МАГИСТЕРСКАЯ ДИССЕРТАЦИЯ
по направлению подготовки 38.04.02 «Менеджмент»
образовательная программа «Экономика впечатлений: менеджмент в индустрии гостеприимства и туризме»
Цзя Синжань
Рецензент
д.п.н., профєссор, заведующий кафедрой методики и теории споритвных игр Лосин Б.Е.
Консультант Старший Преподаватель П.Ф. Воробьев
Санкт-Петербург - 2020
Preface
The Olympic Games as the most influential mega-event in the world is considered as a strong force in promoting tourism. This report attempts to clarify positive and negative influences of the 2022 Winter Olympics on Zhangjiakou tourism, and try to predict the tourism trend under the background of the Winter Olympics. The author proves the relevance between the 2022 Winter Olympics and tourism of the co-host city Zhangjiakou, summaries the negative impacts of the Winter Olympics, and gives suggestions about how to overcome these difficulties. Hope it is helpful for improving of Zhangjiakou tourism market.
This article is written in English for Journal of Outdoor Recreation and Tourism. The Journal offers an outlet for research relevant to social sciences and natural resources. There are no restrictions on the length of manuscripts. Full experimental details need be provided so that the results can be reproduced. Include in the article Title, Author, Abstract, Keywords; Introduction, Materials and Methods, Results, Discussion, Conclusions (optional) ; Acknowledgments, References.
winter olympics zhangjiakou tourism
Abstract
The XXIV Winter Olympics will be co-hosted by Beijing and Zhangjiakou of China in 2022. As mega-events the Olympics always make a huge effect on host countries and cities. This paper focuses on both positive and negative influences of this sport event on tourism of the host city - Zhangjiakou. The author figures out that the Games promote the tertiary industry's development of Zhangjiakou, tourism resources are being largely expanded. The Olympics do bring physical benefits to the Zhangjiakou tourism industry. Besides, the difficulties faced by Zhangjiakou are mentioned in the article. The author gives suggestions in the discussion section. Regression analysis is adopted in this study to predict the future tourism trend of Zhangjiakou under the influence of the Winter Olympics.
Keywords: the 2022 Winter Olympics, Zhangjiakou, impact on tourism, tourism development trend
Introduction
In 2015 the International Olympic Committee (IOC) declared that Beijing won the bid for the 2022 Winter Olympic Games. The 2022 Olympic sports will be held in three zones of central Beijing, Yanqing, and Zhangjiakou. Beijing will host some snow events and all the ice events. Yanqing, as a suburban district of Beijing, will host the alpine sliding and skiing events. Zhangjiakou, further to the northwest in the neighboring Hebei Province, will host all the other events in its Chongli district. Beijing as the China capital has gained too much attention, however, in other countries almost no one knows about Zhangjiakou - the co-host city of the 2022 Winter Olympics. Zhangjiakou as a neighbor city of the capital Beijing doesn't get high economic radiation. It is a fourth-tier, small and medium-sized city of China. Its tourism resource has yet to be developed and integrated. Zhangjiakou badly needs this chance of the Winter Olympics to vigorously develop the tourism industry and stimulate economic growth. Thus, this article studies the impacts on Zhangjiakou. By analyzing both positive and negative impacts of the 2022 Winter Olympics, this article will give suggestions on tourism development of this city to make the best of the advantages and avoid the negative impact of the Winter Olympics.
The Games' ability to catch high attention for the host cities and to attract tourists after the events have been proved. (H. Preuss, 2004) Due to the Olympics, the host cities create or upgrade the infrastructure, improves tourism services, create new tourism products. (Rodoula H. Tsiotsou, 2010) Jon Teigland (1996) in the research pointed out that impacts of mega-events on tourism can be smaller and less lasting than the "big boom" effects often expected. The mega-event affects tourism in two ways: the amount of tourism and the quality of tourism. It makes tourism not just more, also better. (Tyrrell Marris, 1987)
In the 21st century, 5 Winter Olympics were held. For each Winter Olympics, there was always a large group of researchers studying its impact on economy, tourism, or other industry. Andranovitch and Burbank (2011), Fourie and Santana-Gallego (2011), Kaplanidou and Karradakis (2010) and many other authors studied tourism stream brought by the Winter Olympics (Marilyne Gaudette, Romain Roult & Sylvain Lefebvre, 2017) The researchers expressed different opinions about if the mega-events can make effects on tourism. Based on previous researches, this article is aimed at figuring out changes in tourism filed of Zhangjiakou under the influence of hosting the 2022 Winter Olympics, making the best use of the Winter Olympics to develop Zhangjiakou tourism.
When reading research articles, the author found that most researchers showed positive impacts of Games on Zhangjiakou tourism, but just a few articles mentioned the negative aspects. The study objective is to define if the Winter Olympics make negative impacts on tourism of the host city, and how to avoid disadvantages, and do regression analysis of economic and tourism figures to forecast the future trend under the influence of the 2022 Winter Olympics, which has not been seen in the field.
Literature Review
Research on events and tourism has been going on for decades. There is no real justification for considering event tourism as a separate field of study. The constraint is that both event and tourism studies are necessary to understand this kind of experience. (Donald Getz, Stephen J. Page, 2016) The term 'event(s) tourism' wasn't widely used until 1987 the New Zealand Tourist and Publicity Department proposed: "Event tourism is an important and rapidly growing segment of international tourism". Donald Getz (1989) developed a framework for planning "events tourism", which marks the formation of the term "event tourism".
Referring to positive impacts of events on tourism destination, Collins (1997) thought that sports events can provide a tourist focus where nature has failed to do so, or stimulate accommodation provision in the off-peak period. Don Getz (2015) described major events as catalysts for development, such as new infrastructure, and to boost an area's capacity to host events, or enhance culture. Events not only have a material impact on local economy and tourism, but also have a positive impact on the psychology of community residents. Walo, Bull, and Breen (1996) and the 1995 Sports Association Games of Northern Conference University (Lismore, Australia) found that the Games (the Olympic Games, the World Cup, etc.) did have a positive impact on the community. Volunteer staff and the use of facilities were important in getting the community involved. The authors found that compared with hosting a mega-event, a small scale local event may bring higher psychic income of the residents, as more community residents are likely to be involved in the event in some way.
Besides, experts studied the relevance between the Winter Olympics and tourism flows. As for it generated by the 2002 Salt Lake City Winter Olympics, Moss, S. E., Gruben, K. H. and Moss, J. (2014) showed growth eight months after the Winter Olympics, which indicates a possible long-term positive trend. Alberts(2011) and Andranovich & Burbank (2011) figured out that from tours and exhibitions in Salt Lake City generated significant tourism spin-offs. However, in some cases not only positive influence made by megaevents, but also negative. According to Andranovich and Burbank (2011), the corruption scandal related to the selection of Salt Lake City for the Olympics damaged the city's image. About the tourist flow generated by the 2006 Turin Winter Olympics, Fourie and Santana-Gallego (2011), Gruben, Moss. S. E, and Moss. J(2012; 2014) emphasized no increase in the tourist flow during the Olympic year. While during the 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympics, the tourist flow did increase significantly (Gruben, Moss. S. E, and Moss. J, 2012), however, this increase wasn't maintained over time. (Moss, S. E., Gruben, K. H., Moss, J., 2014) Sochi went through a decline stage in the 1990s but was able to recover with the honor of hosting the Winter Olympic Games in 2014. (Alexandrova, A. Y., Aigina, E. V., Minenkova, V. V, 2019) President Putin highlighted that "Sochi is going to become a new world-class resort for the new Russia. And the whole world!" when they were preparing for the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics. (Putin, 2007)
As the 2022 winter Olympic Games will be held in China, on the Chinese academic article search platform CNKI the author input "the Winter Olympics and tourism" as keywords to search for the related works in the past 10 years, and found 95 articles. Figure 1 described the trend of published article quantity from 2011. From this chart, it can be seen that after 2015 China's successful bid for the Winter Olympics, research on the winter Olympics and tourism is jumping. 29% (28 articles) of these articles talked about the 2022 winter Olympics and Zhangjiakou tourism.
Figure 1. The published trend on CNKI
* 1) the number of articles in 2020 is automatically predicted.
2) the figure is picked from CNKI.
Zhang Fuli (2016) analyzed the benefits of the 2022 Winter Olympics to Zhangjiakou tourism from three perspectives: tourist subject, object, and intermediary. Zhang Qi, et al (2018) investigated and analyzed tourists' behavior and perception, then proposed for tourism development of Zhangjiakou under the background of the upcoming Winter Olympics. When it comes to specific tourism field, ski tour in Zhangjiakou has been studied more.
In conclusion, mega-events could bring many benefits to local tourism. It has been proved by researchers all over the world. But the negative effects of mega-events on tourism of the host city are rarely described. The author will try to figure out both positive and negative effects of the upcoming Winter Olympics on tourism destination Zhangjiakou, to offer proposals and avoid the negative aspects, to make Zhangjiakou, a small and medium-sized city, take advantage of this opportunity, promote the development of tourism, and then drive economic growth.
Method
A combination of qualitative and quantitative methods and regression analysis are used in this study. The strength of the quantitative approach is collecting structured quantifiable data, while the qualitative method provides an opportunity for information, which is difficult to capture using a quantitative method.
In a quantitative study, the data is mainly picked from the official website of Zhangjiakou Municipal Bureau of Statistics. Tourism revenue to GDP ratio shows that the Zhangjiakou government's support to the tourism industry from one side, while the growth rate of tourist number and tourism revenue before and after the successful bid for the Winter Olympics is helpful to figure out what impacts brought by this mega-event on tourism. Inbound tourism trends can tell us the internationalization level of Zhangjiakou.
In the qualitative method, the author selects tourism resources of Zhangjiakou to analyze its tourism potential and resource utilization. These
tourist attractions are found on China's biggest Online Travel Agency - Ctrip. Because Ctrip is the most popular and all-inclusive platform in the China tourism market, it's chosen as the tourism resource reference.
Regression analysis is performed using Microsoft Office Excel to predict the trend of tourism revenue and tourist number under the influence of the Winter Olympics.
Result
Impacts of the Winter Olympics seen from tourism trend
Table 1 The tourism trend of Zhangjiakou in 2010-2019
|
Year |
Number of tourists/mill ion |
Year on Year growth rate of tourists |
Tourism revenue/bill ion, Ґ |
Year on Year growth rate of revenue |
GDP / billio n, Ґ |
Tourism revenue to GDP ratio |
|
|
2010 |
10.4 |
- |
5.9 |
- |
96.6 |
6% |
|
|
2011 |
15 |
44% |
8.7 |
47% |
112.5 |
8% |
|
|
2012 |
21.2 |
41% |
12.8 |
47% |
123.4 |
10% |
|
|
2013 |
27.5 |
30% |
18.4 |
44% |
131.7 |
14% |
|
|
2014 |
33.2 |
21% |
23.8 |
29% |
135.9 |
18% |
|
|
2015 |
38.5 |
16% |
30.2 |
27% |
136.4 |
22% |
|
|
2016 |
51.9 |
35% |
51.9 |
72% |
146.1 |
36% |
|
|
2017 |
62.6 |
21% |
69.7 |
34% |
155.6 |
45% |
|
|
2018 |
73.5 |
17% |
85.9 |
23% |
153.7 |
56% |
|
|
2019 |
86.1 |
17% |
103.7 |
21% |
155.1 |
67% |
* The figures are collected from the National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin of Zhangjiakou.
Table 1 shows that from 2010 to 2019, the share of Zhangjiakou's tourism income in GDP increased significantly, and tourism has been now a pillar industry in Zhangjiakou. The average annual growth rate in 2010-2015 was 2.7%, while in 2015-2019 it was 9%. In 2015 for the first time, the proportion of the tertiary industry was higher than that of the secondary industry, taking the first place. The tertiary industry make up more than 50% of GDP in 2018 for the first time, and tourism got a large proportion. (The National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin of Zhangjiakou, 2015) Due to its less impact on environment than heavy industry, the importance of tourism industry increases significantly in local policies of development. It can be said that the hosting of the Winter Olympics helped Zhangjiakou realize the structural transformation of the economy, the tourism industry gets rapid growth.
Figure 1 Tourism trend of Zhangjiakou in 2010-2019
* Developed by the author
It is clear from Figure 1 that 2011 and 2016 are the peak of growth rate of tourist number and tourism income of Zhangjiakou. Why did Zhangjiakou's tourist number and tourism income increase rapidly in 2011? By the National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin of Zhangjiakou, this city strengthened the supporting force to the tourism industry around 2010. In 2011, Zhangjiakou increased the construction of tourism projects, continuously improved the level of tourism reception, and took various measures to vigorously promote tourism resources and expand the tourist source market. The increasing popularity of the 5 tourism features of wine tours, ski & hot spring, prairie style, folk customs, and historical culture has strongly promoted the development of tourism. It is precisely because of the development of Zhangjiakou's tourism industry, especially ski resorts, that Zhangjiakou has the opportunity to jointly host the Winter Olympics with Beijing. Therefore Zhangjiakou tourism industry and the Winter Olympics complement each other. From 2011 to 2015 the growth rate declined year by year. After the Beijing-Zhangjiakou successful bid for the Olympic Games in 2015, the growth rate of tourist quantity and tourism revenue rebounded sharply in 2016. This is exactly the direct and positive impact that the Winter Olympics bring to Zhangjiakou, which expands the city's reputation and stimulates the rapid growth of tourist arrivals and tourism revenue. This result is consistent with Chalip & Costa's (2006) thought, which shows that placemaking, city branding, and marketing became the key in tourism strategies.
Zhangjiakou inbound tourism trend
Table 2 The proportion of international tourists
|
Year |
Number of tourists/million |
International tourists/million |
The proportion of international tourists |
|
|
2010 |
10.4 |
0.053 |
0.51% |
|
|
2011 |
15 |
0.075 |
0.50% |
|
|
2012 |
21.2 |
0.083 |
0.39% |
|
|
2013 |
27.5 |
0.089 |
0.32% |
|
|
2014 |
33.2 |
0.099 |
0.30% |
|
|
2015 |
38.5 |
0.107 |
0.28% |
|
|
2016 |
51.9 |
0.11 |
0.21% |
|
|
2017 |
62.6 |
0.12 |
0.19% |
|
|
2018 |
73.5 |
- |
- |
|
|
2019 |
86.1 |
- |
- |
* the National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin ofZhangjiakou
The National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin of Zhangjiakou reads that international tourists coming to Zhangjiakou is just no more than 1%, even after 2015. It can be seen that until now the Winter Olympics didn't bring to Zhangjiakou a huge reputation in the international market. In the world, many people know that China-Beijing will hold the 2022 Winter Olympics, but have no idea about that it is co-organized by Zhangjiakou. At present, the popularity of English in the tourism market of Zhangjiakou is not too high. The municipal tourism bureau and travel agencies don't set up English webpages, and hardly any guides have the ability to receipt foreign tourists. In which case its tourism market is imperfect, but it has to spend much energy on internationalization to welcome the upcoming worldwide games. It is indeed a challenging task for this fourth-tier city.
Impacts of the Winter Olympics reflected in tourism resources
Lying in between the North China Plain and the Mongolian Plateau, Zhangjiakou has a rugged topography characterized by high mountains, deep valleys, and rocky pathways. The Grand Yan Mountain, the towering Taihang Mountain, the vast grasslands, and the meandering Sangyang River converge here. Zhangjiakou is located in a temperate continental monsoon climate zone, typified by four distinct seasons and large seasonal temperature differences, with warm and humid summers, cold winters, dry and windy spring, sunny and cool autumn. The area of Bashang is rich in light resources, and the temperature difference between day and night is large.
Table 3 the number of scenic spots of Zhangjiakou
|
Year |
A-grade scenic spot |
AAAA-class scenic spot |
|
|
2010 |
- |
- |
|
|
2011 |
- |
- |
|
|
2012 |
- |
- |
|
|
2013 |
34 |
12 |
|
|
2014 |
37 |
12 |
|
|
2015 |
39 |
12 |
|
|
2016 |
53 |
12 |
|
|
2017 |
64 |
12 |
|
|
2018 |
64 |
12 |
|
|
2019 |
60 |
11 |
* 1) the National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin of Zhangjiakou 2) Tourist attractions are classified as 5 class: A, AA, AAA, AAAA, AAAAA, AAAAA-class is the best one.
From 2013 to 2018, the number of A-level tourist attractions almost double. In 2019 both the total number of scenic spots and the 4A-level number is less than in 2018. Hebei Province selected several scenic spots to be reviewed in 2019. According to the relevant requirements and management rules, 23 scenic spots in the province were canceled the A-level scenic spot quality treatment. It shows that Zhangjiakou has been vigorously developing the tourism industry in recent years, opened up a large group of attractions, but the development trend towards high-class scenic spots is relatively weak. The quality of tourist attractions is being taken seriously. Tourist attractions should consider creating unique and sustainable tourism products from the aspects of transport accessibility, tourism facilities, tourism safety, sanitation, communications convenience, protection of environment and natural resource, and attractiveness to the public, and attach importance to the quality of tourism services.
Around 2010, Zhangjiakou proposed five major tourism directions. In 2016, it was identified as six tourism brands, namely wine tours, ski & hot spring, prairie style, folk customs, historical culture and the Great Wall ancient path.
Table 4 Tourism resource of Zhangjiakou
|
6 key tourism brands |
Tourist attractions |
Others |
||
|
wine tours |
Hongkun Wine Town, the Great Wall Winery, Rongchen Winery, Shengtang Winery, Ruiyun Winery, Zijing Winery, Orenda wine museum etc. |
The best time to visit is from August to October. |
||
|
ski & hot spring |
ski |
Wanlong Ski Resort(4A), Thaiwoo Ski Resort, Yunding Ski Resort, Great Wall Ridge Ski Resort, Duolemeidi Ski Resort, Fulong Ski Resort, Genting Ski Resort, Xenadu Snow World, the Milky Way Ski Resort, Cuiyunshan |
1 AAAA-class scenic spot; The best time to visit is from November to March. |
|
Ski Resort, Ice & Snow Cultural Museum etc. |
||||
|
hot spring |
Nihewan Hot Spring Ecological Town, Hot Spring Holiday Hotel, Chicheng Hot Spring Resort(4A), Yixinyuan Hot Spring, Diman Hot Spring, Yiyuan Hot Spring etc. |
1 AAAA-class scenic spot; The best time to visit is from October to April. |
||
|
prairie style |
Zhangbei Zhongdu Grassland Resort(4A), Aerial Grassland, Bashang Grassland, Prairie Sky Road, River Luanhe, Huanglong Hill Villa(4A), Lightning Lake, Kulun Swan Lake Resort(4A), Anguli Grassland, Eco-agriculture park, the Little Wutai Mount - Jinhe nature reserve(4A), Wuhua marshy grassland, Huyuan Resort, Resort beyond the Great Wall(4A) etc. |
5 AAAA-class scenic spot; The best time to visit is from May to October. |
||
|
folk customs |
Dashuhua of Nuanquan Town, papercut of Yu County, Stilts, Jin Opera, song-and-dance duet, Yangko Dance, |
5 cultures are listed as national intangible cultural heritage; 3 are listed as provincial intangible cultural heritage. |
|
Oat noodles production process, Bronze ware etc. |
|||
|
historical culture |
Nuanquan Town, Yehuling Fort, Nihewan Ruins, Yuanzhongdu Ruins, Huangdicheng Cultural Tourism Area, Yuzhou Town, the Yellow Emperor Town Ruines(4A), the Qingyuan Tower, Nan'an Temple etc. |
1 AAAA-class scenic spot; They can be visited in the whole year. |
|
|
the Great Wall ancient path |
Jimingyi Dak, the Dajingmen Gateway(4A), the Great Wall etc. |
1 AAAA-class scenic spot; They can be visited in the whole year. |
|
|
The others |
Prairie music festival, Jinhekou forest park, Zhangbei Sea of Lavender Anjiagou ecotourism resort(4A) Jiming Mountain(4A) etc. |
Based on the great ecological environment and natural resources, every year Zhangjiakou hosts music festivals, sports competitions and other events. |
* tourism resources on Ctrip
Searching for Zhangjiakou tourism resources on China's Online Travel Agency - Ctrip, most of them are natural scenery tours and skiing. Due to climate featuring four distinct seasons and diverse landforms, such as plains, hills, and grasslands, Zhangjiakou is an ideal place for entertainment and holidays. In spring, tourists can visit historical sites; in summer, visitors can sleep in Mongolian yurts on Zhangbei Grassland, and enjoy the annual musical event, taste fresh mutton; in autumn, visitors can pick grapes and taste Huailai wine; while in winter, tourists can ski on Chongli Mountains, then take a bath in hot springs. It proves that Zhangjiakou has the ability to provide multi-directional tourist products.
According to data from the Sixth National Stadium Census (2014), there were 15 outdoor artificial ski resorts in Zhangjiakou at that time. By 2019, 7 ski resorts exist just in Chongli district of Zhangjiakou. The Beijing News reported that 30 ski resorts and 600 ski slopes are going to be built in Zhangjiakou by 2025.
Table 5 the number of tourists visiting Chongli District in snow season
|
Year |
Tourist number (million) |
Year-on-year growth rate |
|
|
2010-2011 |
0.70 |
- |
|
|
2011-2012 |
0.87 |
25.0% |
|
|
2012-2013 |
1.02 |
16.9% |
|
|
2013-2014 |
1.42 |
40.2% |
|
|
2014-2015 |
1.67 |
17.4% |
|
|
2015-2016 |
2.19 |
30.8% |
|
|
2016-2017 |
2.68 |
22.5% |
|
|
2017-2018 |
2.74 |
6.0% |
* the National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin of Zhangjiakou
After 2010, the number of tourists during the snow season in Zhangjiakou - Chongli district increased at an average annual rate of 20%, especially since the proposed "Beijing and Zhangjiakou joint bid for the 2022 Winter Olympics" in 2013, the popularity of Zhangjiakou ski tour has increased rapidly.
In recent years, the tourist reception capacity of Zhangjiakou Ski Resort has been continuously improved, meanwhile, some problems have been exposed. Chongli Ski Resorts has unique ski resources, but due to its insufficient natural snowfall and instability, it requires a lot of artificial snow every year, which costs a great number of water resources. (Yang Ning, Zhang Li, Yang Runtian, 2015) However Zhangjiakou is not a city with sufficient water resources, in addition, Zhangjiakou supplies to Beijing with 21.5 million residents a multitude of water every year. With driving of the
Winter Olympics to the ice and snow tourism, more ski resorts have emerged, which may cause an imbalance of natural ecology and attraction. The mega sports event is an accelerator for the development of Zhangjiakou's ski tourism, which not only brings development opportunities to ice and snow tourism, but also causes problems of excessive investment and improper use.
Forecast of Zhangjiakou tourist number and tourism revenue
Table 6 Tourism figure of Zhangjiakou in 2010-2019
|
Year |
Tourist number/m illion |
Tourism revenue/bi llion, Y |
Zhangjiak ou Per Capita disposable income / Y |
Average Per capita disposal income of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province/ Y |
Per capita GDP of Zhangjiako u/ thousand, Ґ |
Zhangjiak ou GDP / billion, Ґ |
|
|
2010 |
10.4 |
5.9 |
- |
- |
22.77 |
96.6 |
|
|
2011 |
15 |
8.7 |
- |
- |
25.793 |
112.5 |
|
|
2012 |
21.2 |
12.8 |
- |
- |
28.142 |
123.4 |
|
|
2013 |
27.5 |
18.4 |
- |
21,661 |
29.907 |
131.7 |
|
|
2014 |
33.2 |
23.8 |
14,126 |
23,740 |
30.756 |
135.9 |
|
|
2015 |
38.5 |
30.2 |
15,781 |
25,858 |
30.84 |
136.4 |
|
|
2016 |
51.9 |
51.9 |
17,588 |
28,088 |
33.03 |
146.1 |
|
|
2017 |
62.6 |
69.7 |
19,585 |
30,534 |
35.132 |
155.6 |
|
|
2018 |
73.5 |
85.9 |
21,830 |
33,107 |
34.661 |
153.7 |
|
|
2019 |
86.1 |
103.7 |
24,159 |
35,995 |
35.025 |
155.1 |
* the National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin of Zhangjiakou
Regression analysis is used to analyze development trend of tourist number and tourism revenue in 2010-2019, and give the prediction of the next 5 years. In this article two prediction ways are applied. The first way is predicting development trend as only considering dependent variable, while in the second way are considered the relevance between Per Capita disposable income, GDP and other economic factors and tourism development.
1) analysis and prediction of tourist number
On the basis of past development speed, the following forecast of tourist number is made in Zhangjiakou in the next 5 years. In the regression analysis, the closer the determination coefficient R square is to 1, the more accurate the fitted curve. Therefore, in the prediction of the number of tourists, the author selects the fitting function of R square closest to 1, namely the polynomial function for regression analysis.
Figure 2 regression analysis of tourist number (1)
* Developed by the author
This figure is made on tourist number in previous years. The fitted equation is y = 0.5576x2 + 2.2079x + 8.38. y is the number of tourists, x is the time value. The degree of fitting R2 is 0.9974, which means that this curve accurately reflects the growth trend of tourists. From this the tourist number of Zhangjiakou in 2020-2024 can be predicted as below.
|
Year |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
|
|
Predicted tourist number(million) |
100.1 |
115.2 |
131.3 |
148.6 |
170 |
Figure 3 regression analysis of tourist number in Zhangjiakou (2)
* Developed by the author
Taking into account the impact of economic factors such as per capita disposable income and GDP on tourism, the predicted value can be made as shown in Figure 3. The economic value for 2020-2024 is calculated with the Excel function =FORECAST.ETS() (as shown below).
Figure 3 shows that as being affected by economic factors, the change in the number of tourists will be more obvious. But at present, the author cannot judge which prediction method is closer to the reality.
|
Original data |
Model |
|||||||
|
Tourism revenue/bill ion, Y |
Zhangjia kou Per Capita disposabl e income / Y |
Average Per capita disposal income of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province/ Y |
Per capita GDP of Zhangjia kou/ thousand , Ґ |
Zhangji akou GDP / billion, Ґ |
Tourism revenue/b illion, Y |
Numb er |
Ye ar |
|
|
5.90 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
22.77 |
96.60 |
9.067256 7 |
1 |
201 0 |
|
|
8.70 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
25.79 |
112.50 |
-3.353901 |
2 |
201 1 |
|
|
12.80 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
28.14 |
123.40 |
14.96924 5 |
3 |
201 2 |
|
|
18.40 |
0.00 |
21,661.35 |
29.91 |
131.70 |
15.28916 7 |
4 |
201 3 |
|
|
23.80 |
14,126.0 0 |
23,740.38 |
30.76 |
135.90 |
34.29686 3 |
5 |
201 4 |
|
|
30.20 |
15,781.0 0 |
25,858.10 |
30.84 |
136.40 |
33.88994 4 |
6 |
201 5 |
|
|
51.90 |
17,588.0 |
28,087.61 |
33.03 |
146.10 |
61.05684 |
7 |
201 |
|
0 |
9 |
6 |
||||||
|
69.70 |
19,585.0 0 |
30,534.35 |
35.13 |
155.60 |
83.66637 9 |
8 |
201 7 |
|
|
85.90 |
21,830.0 0 |
33,106.57 |
34.66 |
153.70 |
76.09279 |
9 |
201 8 |
|
|
103.70 |
24,159.0 0 |
35,994.88 |
35.03 |
155.10 |
86.02540 6 |
10 |
201 9 |
|
|
96.54429 110.4717 121.4554 136.7461 145.7161 |
28,748.2 8 |
44,228.92 |
36.45 |
161.84 |
96.54428 7 |
11 |
202 0 |
|
|
33,576.9 9 |
47,563.51 |
37.54 |
166.84 |
110.4716 9 |
12 |
202 1 |
||
|
36,179.0 5 |
51,679.90 |
38.59 |
171.63 |
121.4554 2 |
13 |
202 2 |
||
|
39,567.5 0 |
54,963.77 |
39.55 |
175.83 |
136.7460 9 |
14 |
202 3 |
||
|
42,941.9 5 |
58,649.44 |
40.47 |
180.14 |
145.7161 3 |
15 |
202 4 |
2) analysis and prediction of tourism revenue in Zhangjiakou
In the prediction of tourism revenue, the author chooses the best fitting polynomial function.
Figure 3 regression analysis of tourism revenue in Zhangj iakou( 1 )
* Developed by the author
The fitted equation is y = 1.278x2 - 3.0765x + 8.8167. y is the tourism revenue, x is the time value, 1-15 corresponds to 2010-2024 respectively. The degree of fitting R2 is 0.9934, which is much closed to 1. It shows that this function is relatively accurate. The tourism revenue of Zhangjiakou in the next 5 years is predicted as follows.
|
Year |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
|
|
Predicted tourism revenue/billion, Ґ |
129.6 |
155.9 |
184.8 |
216.2 |
250.2 |
Figure 4 regression analysis of tourism revenue in Zhangjiakou(2)
* drawed by the author
Figure 4 shows that after 2019, tourism income will have grown steadily, which is in line with the prediction in Figure 3. Comparing with Figure 3, it is found that the predicted growth rate in Figure 4 is slower and the amount of growth is less. The predictation is listed below. Zhangjiakou Per Capita disposable income, Average Per capita disposal income of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province, Per capita GDP of Zhangjiakou, Zhangjiakou GDP for 2020-2024 is calculated with the Excel function
=FORECAST.ETS().
|
Original data |
Model |
|||||||
|
Tourism revenue/bi llion, Y |
Zhangjia kou Per Capita disposabl e income /Y |
Average Per capita disposal income of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province/ Y |
Per capita GDP of Zhangji akou/ thousan d, Ґ |
Zhangji akou GDP / billion, Ґ |
Tourism revenue/billio n, Y |
Num ber |
Year |
|
|
5.90 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
22.77 |
96.60 |
9.0672567 |
1 |
2010 |
|
|
8.70 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
25.79 |
112.50 |
-3.353901 |
2 |
2011 |
|
|
12.80 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
28.14 |
123.40 |
14.969245 |
3 |
2012 |
|
18.40 |
0.00 |
21,661.35 |
29.91 |
131.70 |
15.289167 |
4 |
2013 |
|
|
23.80 |
14,126.0 0 |
23,740.38 |
30.76 |
135.90 |
34.296863 |
5 |
2014 |
|
|
30.20 |
15,781.0 0 |
25,858.10 |
30.84 |
136.40 |
33.889944 |
6 |
2015 |
|
|
51.90 |
17,588.0 0 |
28,087.61 |
33.03 |
146.10 |
61.056849 |
7 |
2016 |
|
|
69.70 |
19,585.0 0 |
30,534.35 |
35.13 |
155.60 |
83.666379 |
8 |
2017 |
|
|
85.90 |
21,830.0 0 |
33,106.57 |
34.66 |
153.70 |
76.09279 |
9 |
2018 |
|
|
103.70 |
24,159.0 0 |
35,994.88 |
35.03 |
155.10 |
86.025406 |
10 |
2019 |
|
|
96.54429 |
28,748.2 8 |
44,228.92 |
36.45 |
161.84 |
96.544287 |
11 |
2020 |
|
|
110.4717 |
33,576.9 9 |
47,563.51 |
37.54 |
166.84 |
110.47169 |
12 |
2021 |
|
|
121.4554 |
36,179.0 5 |
51,679.90 |
38.59 |
171.63 |
121.45542 |
13 |
2022 |
|
|
136.7461 |
39,567.5 0 |
54,963.77 |
39.55 |
175.83 |
136.74609 |
14 |
2023 |
|
|
145.7161 |
42,941.9 5 |
58,649.44 |
40.47 |
180.14 |
145.71613 |
15 |
2024 |
Discussion and Conclusion
The Winter Olympics bring both opportunities and challenges to Zhangjiakou Tourism. Zhangjiakou should make the best use of this hard- won opportunity to stimulate sports tourism and develop the tertiary industry. How does Zhangjiakou face challenges of the Winter Olympics?
1. As to its internationalization, First, Zhangjiakou's tourism-related business, such as 4A scenic spots and 4-star/ 5-star hotels, try best to attract international talents, who are able to communicate with foreigners in English. Second, provide English service in public places such as street signs, public transportation, tourist service centers, etc.; Third, build an English version of websites. It is suggested that the Zhangjiakou Tourism and Culture Bureau set up English pages of its official website and describe Zhangjiakou's tourism resources in detail on the internet. Fourth, Lay emphasis on the cultivation of students' oral English level.
2. In Zhangjiakou, many ski resorts were built in recent years, however, ski resort operations are still not standardized. Each ski resort operates independently, without complete industrial chain, the resource utilization rate is not high, the ski tourism market is not standardized. The author appeals not to regard the increased number of ski resorts as the only factor in the development of snow and ice tourism. It is more important to pay attention to the quality of ski resorts and the reserve of ski professionals to create ski + leisure + culture tourism model.
The model of super ski resort is widely used abroad. This is a leisure industry development model with small towns or villages as the main body. The concentrated residential area is close to the ski resort, and it is mainly built on the mountain. The connected mountains can be used to build a super ski resort with a wide variety of ski runs, and a strong cableway carrying capacity. Zhangjiakou can learn experience from this model. (Yang Ning, Zhang Li, Yang Runtian, 2015)
It should be pointed out that there is a limitation in the prediction of tourism trend. The outbreak of novel coronavirus epidemic in 2020 makes a disastrous effect on the tourism industry. Zhangjiakou is no exception. However, in the regression analysis of tourism trend, this situation is not taken into account. The final number is an ideal result.
Acknowledgment
The author acknowledges supervisors Pavel Fedorovich, Julia Trabskaya and other teachers for suggestions. And many thanks to Higher School of Economics for research resources.
Reference
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http://www.ccsxtv.com/article.do?cid=250513&aid=3382bc51-8de5-4548-
9d55 -2b08535fb1 be&index= 1 &uid=32&zqname=
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