European migrant crisis: analysis of migration routes

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Catholic University of San Antonio de Murcia

EUROPEAN MIGRANT CRISIS: ANALYSIS OF MIGRATION ROUTES

Isaac de TORO MEZQUITA PhD

Professor

Annotation

external border migration europe

The scientific article examines the main ways of migration to Europe from 2014 to 2020. As a result of the conducted research, the following conclusions were made in the scientific article. The migration crisis of 2015 put the issue of migration on the political agenda and revealed the shortcomings of the European Union, Frontex and EU Member States in their border management mechanisms. In 2015, more than one and a half million illegal border crossings were detected at the EU's external borders, an alltime record. At a crucial moment in the migration crisis, Turkey was one of the main points of entry, with around 800,000 illegal migrants. This circumstance indicates the current impossibility of the European Union to curb illegal immigration in the absence of a strategic plan agreed with the member states. poses a risk to internal security. The lack of a mechanism for solving such situations in 2020 shows the weakness of the European Union, especially in the face of possible migration situations at its external borders, the situation with which still remains fragile and unstable. The need to advance legislative priorities to optimize the management of external borders to reduce or eliminate migratory routes has become objective, but the only measure adopted by the European Union that has managed to curb illegal entry was the EU-TURKEY Agreement, which can be considered a special measure, and that makes the EU dependent on the political will of the Turkish government. The European Union particularly focused on the Mediterranean migration routes, where various maritime operations were carried out. This protection of external borders has forced the search for or restoration of new migration routes, such as the West African route, which has seen a significant increase, but we can also see a slight increase in the Western Balkan route.

This shows the inability of the European Union to provide equal protection at all external borders and that the measures taken by the European Border Guard appear to be ineffective.

Key words: migration, external border, FRONTEX, irregular entries, irregular migrants.

АНОТАЦІЯ

Ісаак де Торо Мескіта. Європейська міграційна криза: аналіз міграційних шляхів.

У науковій статті розглядаються основні шляхи міграції до Європи з 2014 по 2020 рік. У результаті проведеного дослідження в науковій статті зроблено наступні висновки. Міграційна криза 2015 року поставила питання міграції на політичний порядок денний і виявила недоліки Європейського Союзу, Frontex та держав-членів ЄС у механізмах управління кордонами. У 2015 році на зовнішніх кордонах ЄС було виявлено понад півтора мільйона незаконних перетинів кордону, що є рекордом за весь час. У вирішальний момент міграційної кризи Туреччина була однією з головних точок в'їзду, близько 800 000 нелегальних мігрантів. Зазначена обставина вказує на нинішню неможливість Європейського Союзу приборкати нелегальну імміграцію за відсутності стратегічного плану, узгодженого з державами-членами. становить ризик для внутрішньої безпеки. Відсутність механізму вирішення подібних ситуацій у 2020 році свідчить про слабкість Європейського Союзу, особливо перед обличчям можливих міграційних ситуацій на його зовнішніх кордонах, ситуація з якими все ще залишається крихкою та нестабільною. Необхідність просування законодавчих пріоритетів для оптимізації управління зовнішніми кордонами для скорочення або ліквідації міграційних шляхів стала об'єктивною, але єдиним заходом, ухваленим Європейським Союзом, який спромігся стримати нелегальний в'їзд, була Угода ЄС-ТУРЕЧЧИНА, яку можна розглянути спеціальний захід, і що робить ЄС залежним від політичної волі уряду Туреччини. Європейський Союз особливо зосередився на середземноморських міграційних шляхах, де проводилися різні морські операції. Цей захист зовнішніх кордонів змусив шукати або відновити нові міграційні маршрути, такі як шлях у Західній Африці, де спостерігалося значне зростання, але ми також можемо спостерігати незначне збільшення на західнобалканському маршруті. Це свідчить про неспроможність Європейського Союзу забезпечити однакову охорону на всіх зовнішніх кордонах і про те, що заходи, які вживаються Європейською прикордонною службою, виявляються неефективними.

Ключові слова: міграція, зовнішній кордон, FRONTEA, нелегальні в'їзди, нелегальні мігранти.

1. INTRODUCTION

In 2015 the European Union faced unprecedented migratory pressure. In the third quarter of that year, 615,462FRAN Quarterly. Quarter 1. JanuaryMarch 2016 (2016). Warsaw: Frontex. p. 6. URL: https://reliefweb.int/attachments/0ba844c5-d73e-30b9-835e-7e01e0227293/FRAN_Q1_2016.pdf. irregular crossings of external borders were recorded, a number that increased considerably in the following quarter to 978,525 FRAN Quarterly. Quarter 1. JanuaryMarch 2016 (2016). Warsaw: Frontex. p. 6. URL: https://reliefweb.int/attachments/0ba844c5-d73e-30b9-835e-7e01e0227293/FRAN_Q1_2016.pdf.. The main migration route was the Eastern Mediterranean, where 794,537 irregular crossings were detected in the last half of 2015, of which 443,340 were of Syrian nationality FRAN Quarterly. Quarter 1. JanuaryMarch 2016 (2016). Warsaw: Frontex. p. 6. URL: https://reliefweb.int/attachments/0ba844c5-d73e-30b9-835e-7e01e0227293/FRAN_Q1_2016.pdf., escaping "war, oppression or poverty" Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, The European Council and the Council. Progress report on the Implementation of the European Agenda on Migration, 16 October 2019, COM (2019) 481 final (2019). Brussels: European Commission. p. 1.. Faced with this dramatic situation, the European Union lacked a collective policy that could manage migration and at the same time respond to the pressure on external borders Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, The European Council and the Council. Progress report on the Implementation of the European Agenda on Migration, 16 October 2019, COM (2019) 481 final (2019). Brussels: European Commission. p. 1., which made it necessary to seek common solutions that could address the problems of irregular migration in the medium and long term and optimize the management of external borders with the European Migration Agenda Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, A European Migration Agenda, 13 May 2015, COM (2015) 240 final (2015). Brussels: European Commission. 22 p..

The migration situationMigration Map. FRONTEX. URL: https://frontex.europa.eu/along-eu-borders/migratory-map (accessed December 12, 2020). in September 2020 is at pre-crisis levels: the number of irregular arrivals is 90% lower than in September 2015, and in the first nine months of 2020 only 85995 were detected.

With regard to the number of people who died or disappeared on 12 December 2020 in the Mediterranean, the figure is 1054, but since 2014 20,857 people have died International Organization for Migration. Missing migrants. URL: https://missingmigrants.iom.int (accessed December 12, 2020)..

Type of Research, Objectives and Design.

The objective of this work is to analyze the use of migratory routes to Europe from 2014 to 2020, with a descriptive study with a longitudinal design.

Data Collection.

The information is based on primary sources which have been obtained from databases of Frontex.

2. RESEARCH RESULTS MEDITERRANEAN ROUTES

This was the most used route by irregular immigrants in the year 2015. As of 2020 the number of irregular entries has dropped drastically, but one of the main reasons for this has been the European Union's agreement with Turkey.

Eastern Mediterranean Route.

The Eastern Mediterranean route can be considered as the main route of irregular entry of migrants into Europe and the one that suffered the greatest migratory pressure in 2015 when 885,386 Risk Analysis for 2018 (2018). Warsaw: Frontex. 56 p. URL: https://frontex.europa. eu/assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis_for_2018.pdf. (accessed December 12, 2020). people were counted.

If we compare this year with the previous one, where 50834 Risk Analysis for 2018 (2018). Warsaw: Frontex. 56 p. URL: https://frontex.europa.eu/assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis_for_2018.pdf. (accessed December 12, 2020). irregular entries were recorded, we can see that the figure was 17 times higher. To address this massive influx of irregular immigration, and at the request of the Greek authorities, Frontex coordinated the Poseidon Operation.

In 2016 there were 182,277 Risk Analysis for 2018 (2018). Warsaw: Frontex. 56 p. URL: https://frontex.europa.eu/assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis_for_2018.pdf. (accessed December 12, 2020). irregular entries, although the vast majority arrived in the first three months of the year FRAN Quarterly. Quarter 2. 2016 (2016). Warsaw: Frontex. 40 p. URL: https://frontex.europa.eu/assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/FRAN_2016_Q2.pdf.. The implementation of the European Union's agreement with Turkey marked a turning point and the number of irregular entries fell considerably from the end of the first quarter. With this agreement, Turkey closed its land and sea borders and accepted the return of irregular migrants from Greece.

Although the European Union Agreement with Turkey significantly reduced irregular entries in 2016 and 2017, we can see from Chart 1 that there was an upturn in the years 2018 and 2019. In the year 2018, 56,561 FRAN Quarterly. Quarter 2. 2016 (2016). Warsaw: Frontex. 40 p. URL: https://frontex.europa.eu/assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/FRAN_2016_Q2.pdf. illegal crossings were recorded, 34% more than in the previous year, due to the increase in land crossings from Turkey to Greece. In the first ten months of 2019, "more than 47,500 arrivals were recorded in Greece, mainly in the Aegean islands, which is an increase of 29% compared to the same period in 2018" Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, The European Council and the Council. Progress report on the Implementation of the European Agenda on Migration, 16 October 2019, COM (2019) 481 final (2019). Brussels: European Commission. p.3.. This increase resulted in the existing hotspots on the Aegean islands, designed for up to 8,000 Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, The European Council and the Council. Progress report on the Implementation of the European Agenda on Migration, 16 October 2019, COM (2019) 481 final (2019). Brussels: European Commission. p.3. Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, The European Council and the Council. Progress report on the Implementation of the European Agenda on Migration, 16 October 2019, COM (2019) 481 final (2019). Brussels: European Commission. p.3. people, being widely surpassed, reaching 31,000^м immigrants and, as a consequence, the conditions in which the immigrants found themselves worsened. Although 20,000 were transferred to the peninsula, it was not possible to reduce the number to a maximum of 8,000 Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, The European Council and the Council. Progress report on the Implementation of the European Agenda on Migration, 16 October 2019, COM (2019) 481 final (2019). Brussels: European Commission. p.3.. This upturn in 2019 did not occur again in 2020, with a total of 16968

Migration Map. FRONTEX. URL: https://frontex.europa.eu/along-eu-borders/migratory-map (accessed December 13, 2020). up to December 13, 2020.

2.2. Central Mediterranean Route

The central Mediterranean route was widely used in 2014 when 170664 irregular entries were registered with Nigerian and Guinean nationalities among others Risk Analysis for 2018 (2018). Warsaw: Frontex. p. 43. URL: https://frontex.europa.eu/assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis_for_2018.pdf. (accessed December 12, 2020)., but it has been gradually decreasing until 2020, although, as we can see in Chart II, there was a rebound in 2016, where 181376 Risk Analysis for 2018 (2018). Warsaw: Frontex. p. 43. URL: https://frontex.europa.eu/assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis_for_2018.pdf. (accessed December 12, 2020). registered the highest figure since the beginning of the European migration crisis. The origin of irregular migrants was Libya, where smuggling networks were operating, favored by the different groups competing to control the country Migratory Routes. FRONTEX. URL: https://frontex.europa.eu/along-eu-borders/migratory-routes/central-mediterranean-route (accessed December 14, 2020). Risk Analysis for 2018 (2018). Warsaw: Frontex. p. 43. URL: https://frontex.europa.eu/assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis_for_2018.pdf. (accessed December 12, 2020)..

The implementation of the European Union Agreement with Turkey, which entered into force in March 2016, led to a substantial decrease in irregular migrants at Italy's borders, with 118962 registered during 2017.

As we can see in the graph II, it was in 2018 that the use of this migratory route decreased drastically, that is, 80% less than the previous year, since only 23485 irregular entries were registered.

Western Mediterranean Route

The Western Mediterranean route is the one that connects the African continent with Europe through Morocco and Spain, and which, in addition to being used for the irregular entry of migrants into the Iberian Peninsula, has also been used by gangs organized to introduce narcotic substances into Europe Migratory Routes. FRONTEX. URL: https://frontex.europa.eu/along-eu-borders/migratory-routes/central-mediterranean-route (accessed December 14, 2020)..

In 2016, 8641 Risk Analysis for 2018 (2018). Warsaw: Frontex. p. 43. URL: https://frontex.europa. eu/assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis_for_2018.pdf. (accessed December 12, 2020). irregular crossings were detected by sea, with departures from Morocco and Algeria, and 1349 Risk Analysis for 2018 (2018). Warsaw: Frontex. p. 43. URL: https://frontex.europa. eu/assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis_for_2018.pdf. (accessed December 12, 2020). by land, making a total of 9990, whose nationalities were mainly Moroccan, Algerian, and Guinean, that is, a majority African origin.

At the external land borders of the European Union in Ceuta in December 2016, some 900 migrants from sub-Saharan Africa used physical violence to cross the border, and 400 of them succeeded, but three Guardia Civil officers were injured Mas de 400 inmigrantes acceden a Ceuta en un asalto masivo a la valla (2017). El Pa^s. URL: https://elpais.com/politica/2017/02/17/actualidad/1487318490_091673.html.

Most of the detections were made around the Strait of Gibraltar, where most migrants opted for small and dangerous rubber boats to make the crossing, some equipped with a small engine.

In the year 2017, as can be seen in Chart III, there was a substantial increase in irregular entries, both by sea, 21552 Risk Analysis for 2018 (2018). Warsaw: Frontex. p. 43. URL: https://frontex.europa. eu/assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis_for_2018.pdf. (accessed December 12, 2020)., maintaining the land entry at the levels of the previous year with 1511 Risk Analysis for 2018 (2018). Warsaw: Frontex. p.43. URL: https://frontex.europa.eu/ assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis_for_2018.pdf. (accessed December 12, 2020).. The political instability in the Moroccan Rif Las torpezas de Rabat disparan las protestas en el Rif (2017). El confidencial. https:// www.elconfidencial.com/mundo/2017-05-18/marruecos-rif-protestas-polisario-rabat-union-europea_1384689/, due to the repression of the Moroccan government, facilitated an increased in the number of small boats leaving its coasts, but this time with a greater capacity to transport people Cientos de jovenes del Rif llegan a Andaluda en patera para escapar de la represion (2017). El confidencial. URL: https://www.elconfidencial.com/mundo/2017-06-27/jovenes-rif-huyen-patera-andalucia-escapar-represion_1406076/, (Consulted December 14, 2020)..

The highest peak of migratory pressure occurred in 2018, which more than doubled the previous year, reaching 56,245 Risk Analysis for 2020 (2020). Warsaw: Frontex. p. 61. URL: https://frontex.europa.eu/ assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis/Annual_Risk_Analysis_2020.pdf. people, of whom 5,420 did so by sea and 1,425 by land.

In 2019 the irregular arrivals fell to levels of 2017, accounting for a total of 23969 which meant a decrease of over 50% over the previous year due to "investment in relations between the European Union and Morocco" Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, The European Council and the Council. Progress report on the Implementation of the European Agenda on Migration, 16 October 2019, COM (2019) 481 final (2019). Brussels: European Commission. p.4.. These included an important economic component so that the Moroccan government could strengthen border controls at the external borders and dismantle migrant trafficking organizations.

In the year 2020, with data up to October 2020, the trend continues to decline, with 13396 detected, of which 8807 Migratory Routes. FRONTEX. URL: https://frontex.europa.eu/along-eu-borders/migratory-routes/central-mediterranean-route (accessed December 14, 2020). are Algerian nationals.

Operations in the Mediterranean

The European Union's maritime operations in the Mediterranean are: INDALO, which from 2015 to 11 November 2020, has saved 96397 lives; THEMIS, saving 265812; SOPHIA, 44916 and POSEIDON with 129092 Vidas salvadas en operaciones de la UE en el Mediterraneo (2015-2020). Council of Europe. URL: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/es/infographics/saving-lives-sea/ Consulted on January 4, 2021)..

The complex nature and objectives of these missions go beyond the scope of our paper, so we do not go into an analysis of them.

Poseidon Operation.

Since January 1, 2006, Operation Poseidon is being carried out with the area of operations centered on the maritime borders between Greece and Turkey.

Themis Operation.

Operation Themis, formerly known as Triton, began on February 1, 2018, under the command of the Italian Ministry of the Interior, with the aim of supporting Italy in surveillance, border control, search and rescue in the central Mediterranean, which has since saved 265812 lives up to November 11, 2020.

Irini Operation.

Within the framework of the Common Security and Defense Policy, the European Union, following the completion of Operation Sophia, launched Operation EUNAVFOR MED IRINI, the main objective of which is to enforce the arms embargo on Libya in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 2292 (2016) and which is scheduled to end on 31 March 2021.

2.5. Missing or deceased in the Mediterranean

The actions of the European Institutions to curb irregular immigration have always taken into account the humanitarian factor. With this humanitarian goal in mind, from 2015 until 14 December 2020, in addition to rescuing more than 536,217⁵³ people from the sea, migration "flows have been considerably reduced⁵⁴; "even so, it is estimated that 2,857 people have died or disappeared while crossing the Mediterranean” from 2014 until 14 December 2020, of which 1,054 Salvar vidas en el mar y luchar contra el trafico illcito de migrantes. Council of Europe. URL: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/es/policies/migratory-pressures/sea-criminal-networks/#, (Accessed December 14, 2020). Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the European Council and the Council, Report on the Implementation of the European Migration Agenda, 6 March 2019. COM (2019) 126 final (2019). Brussels: European Commission. 19 p. died or disappeared last year, but in 2016 the highest figure was reached with 5,143 Tracking deaths along migration routes. Missing migrants. URL: https://missingmigrants.iom.int (accessed December 14, 2020)..

WESTERN BALKAN ROUTE

The Western Balkan Route, as reflected in Chart IV, was one of the main entry routes into Europe in connection with the Eastern Mediterranean route in 2015, with 764038 Risk Analysis for 2018 (2018). Warsaw: Frontex. p. 61. URL: https://frontex.europa. eu/assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis_for_2018.pdf. (accessed December 12, 2020). records, but its use decreased dramatically until 2018 with 5869 Risk Analysis for 2020 (2020). Warsaw: Frontex. p. 61. URL: https://frontex.europa. eu/assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis/Annual_Risk_Analysis_2020.pdf. irregular crossings. In 2019, a slight increase was observed, reaching 15152 Risk Analysis for 2020 (2020). Warsaw: Frontex. p. 61. URL: https://frontex.europa. eu/assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis/Annual_Risk_Analysis_2020.pdf., and this increase is being maintained in the year 2020, since until October it has been used by 19707 Migratory Routes. FRONTEX. URL: https://frontex.europa.eu/along-eu-borders/ migratory-routes/central-mediterranean-route (accessed December 14, 2020). people with nationalities, mainly Afghan and Syrian, but far from the situation in 2015.

The massive arrival of irregular immigrants to Greece in 2015, had as final destination Western Europe so they had to cross Northern Macedonia, Serbia, Hungary and Croatia, causing a massive use of the Western Balkan route, reaching 764038 Risk Analysis for 2018 (2018). Warsaw: Frontex. p. 61. URL: https://frontex.europa. eu/assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis_for_2018.pdf. (accessed December 12, 2020). irregular crossings. This will cause, as we shall see below, some Member States to re-establish border controls at the internal borders of the Schengen area or even to erect fences at these internal borders.

In 2016 this route experienced a significant reduction being used by 130325 Risk Analysis for 2020 (2020). Warsaw: Frontex. p. 61. URL: https://frontex.europa. eu/assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis/Annual_Risk_Analysis_2020.pdf. people of Afghan, Syrian and Iranian nationalities, among others. The main reason was the coordinated restriction measures applied throughout the region, in the destination countries and in the Aegean Sea, which caused it to be used only by regional flows, "decreasing almost every month, from 128,000 illegal border crossings in January to about 3,000 in December 2016" Migratory Routes. FRONTEX. URL: https://frontex.europa.eu/along-eu-borders/migratory-routes/western-balkan-route (Accessed December 14, 2020)..

This downward trend was confirmed in 2017, with 12179 Risk Analysis for 2020 (2020). Warsaw: Frontex. p. 61. URL: https://frontex.europa.eu/ assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis/Annual_Risk_Analysis_2020.pdf. records of irregular entries, and in 2018 with 5869 Risk Analysis for 2020 (2020). Warsaw: Frontex. p. 61. URL: https://frontex.europa.eu/ assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis/Annual_Risk_Analysis_2020.pdf., but, despite this reduction in the number of irregular migrants, the route continued to be used by both regional and nonregional migrants, who reached it by crossing the common borders with Greece and Bulgaria. Once on European soil, they head north to cross the borders of Hungary, Croatia or Romania with Serbia.

This route appears to be closely related to the circular route from Albania to Greece, which we will analyze later.

EASTERN BORDER ROUTE.

The main entry routes to Europe are those of the Mediterranean, but we cannot forget that the European Union also has land borders whose length exceeds 6000 kilometers in Eastern Europe with Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine and the Russian Federation.

This terrestrial route, if we compare it with the maritime ones, is not very used for the irregular entrance in Europe, existing a decreasing tendency in its use as it is possible to be observed in Chart V.

In 2014 there were 1275 Risk Analysis for 2018 (2018). Warsaw: Frontex. p. 63. URL: https://frontex.europa.eu/assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis_for_2018.pdf. (accessed December 12, 2020). irregular entries, a figure that increases slightly in the following two years but begins to decrease in 2015, with 500 irregular entries up to November 2020 Migratory Routes. FRONTEX. URL: https://frontex.europa.eu/along-eu-borders/migratory-routes/western-balkan-route (Accessed December 14, 2020)..

Most of them crossed the land border from Poland and Romania to Ukraine, more than for migratory reasons related to the smuggling Migratory Routes. FRONTEX. URL: https://frontex.europa.eu/along-eu-borders/migratory-routes/western-balkan-route (Accessed December 14, 2020).. In contrast, Afghans and Vietnamese did so for migratory reasons by crossing the borders between Hungary and Ukraine, and between Latvia and Russia, respectively Migratory Routes. FRONTEX. URL: https://frontex.europa.eu/along-eu-borders/migratory-routes/western-balkan-route (Accessed December 14, 2020)..

WEST AFRICAN ROUTE.

This route of irregular migration from Africa mainly affects the Canary Islands where we can observe the progressive increase of its use since 2017 where 421 Risk Analysis for 2018 (2018). Warsaw: Frontex. p. 63. URL: https://frontex.europa. eu/assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis_for_2018.pdf. (accessed December 12, 2020). people were registered. This number increased slightly in the following years with 1323 and 2718 respectively. In the year 2020, with data, till October, a substantial increase has been observed with a total of 11422 Migratory Routes. FRONTEX. URL: https://frontex.europa.eu/along-eu-borders/migratory-routes/eastern-borders-route (Accessed December 19, 2020). people of Moroccan nationality mainly. The data provided by the Spanish Ministry of Interior confirms the resumption of migration from the coast of West Africa to the Canary Islands since 2018, having detected between January and December 15, 2020, 21452 people representing an increase of over 1,000% in arrivals compared to the same period in 2019 Inmigracion irregular 2020. Ministerio del Interior. URL: http://www.interior.gob.es/ documents/10180/11389243/Informe - Quincenal - sobre - Inmigracion - Irregular - - Datos - a cumulados - desde - el - 1 - de - enero - al - 15 - de - diciembre - de - 2020.pdf/3097430a-b493-44a588fb-fb9746b3b049, ( Consulted on December 20, 2020)..

Irregular immigrants arriving in the Canary Islands come from West Africa, the Sahel and the Maghreb. The economic instability produced by the COVID-19 pandemic is seriously affecting countries such as Senegal and The Gambia, forcing many people working in the tourism sector to emigrate. Another important factor is the political instability produced in Mali which favors the use of the migration route to the Canary Islands as it is considered the safest, even if you have to cross the Atlantic, and the one with the least border surveillance.

On November 14, 2020, the Polisario Front broke the ceasefire agreement that had been in effect since it was signed with Morocco in 1991. The trigger for this rupture is marked by the attack perpetrated at the Guerguerat border crossing by Morocco El Polisario accuses Morocco of violating the ceasefire agreement and says the war has begun (2020). RTVE. URL: https://www.rtve.es/noticias/20201114/frente-polisario-da-roto-alto-fuego-sobre-sahara-despues-treinta- anos/2056161.shtml. (Accessed December 20, 2020).. This political instability, together with the economic instability produced by the pandemic, is forcing many Moroccans to join those coming from West Africa and the Sahel and to cross the Atlantic to the Canary Islands. As Carmen Gonzalez, professor at the National University of Distance Education and researcher at the Real Instituto Elcano, points out, "The pandemic is throwing many young Africans into poverty, who find themselves without any hope of surviving in their country" Carlos de Barron (2020) El drama de la inmigracion en Canarias: la pandemia dispara la llegada de migrantes sin un plan para controlarlo. 20 minutos. URL: https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/4487548/0/crisis-inmigrantes-canarias-refugiados-motivos-soluciones-analisis. (Consulted 2 January 2021)..

BLACK SEA ROUTE

The Member States and the European Union focused their efforts on strengthening the external borders, mainly those of the Mediterranean, which made it necessary to use a new route, the Black Sea.

In 2014 there were 433 Risk Analysis for 2018 (2018). Warsaw: Frontex. p. 63. URL: https://frontex.europa. eu/assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis_for_2018.pdf. (accessed December 12, 2020). irregular entries, but that figure dropped drastically in 2015 when the Mediterranean Routes began to be used mainly. In the year 2016 there is only one person registered, but in 2017 the highest peak was detected with 537 Risk Analysis for 2018 (2018). Warsaw: Frontex. p. 63. URL: https://frontex.europa. eu/assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis_for_2018.pdf. (accessed December 12, 2020). persons, mainly due to the measures adopted on the Mediterranean Routes. This route, as indicated by the Romanian authorities elDiario.es, "El Mar Negro: La peligrosa ruta por la que estan apostando los traficantes de personas," https://www.eldiario.es/internacional/theguardian/mar-negro-peligrosa-apostando-traficantes_1_3198357.html, (Accessed December 27, 2020)., is more dangerous than the Mediterranean routes, so its use is increasingly scarce, with only two irregular entries recorded in 2019, and none in 2018 and up to October 2020 Migratory Routes. FRONTEX. URL: https://frontex.europa.eu/along-eu-borders/migratory-routes/eastern-borders-route (Accessed December 19, 2020)..

CIRCULAR ROUTE FROM ALBANIA TO GREECE

This route, located in the Balkans, was created as a result of the strengthening of border control on the Mediterranean Routes and the construction of fences at the internal borders. In 2015, as we have seen before, irregular immigrants were moving through Northern Macedonia and Serbia to reach Hungary, but Hungary's fence and border controls gave birth to this new route.

In 2014 there were 8841 Risk Analysis for 2018 (2018). Warsaw: Frontex. p. 63. URL: https://frontex.europa. eu/assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis_for_2018.pdf. (accessed December 12, 2020). irregular entries, mainly of Albanian nationality, and 8757 of them were registered. These figures were maintained in 2015 with 8932, 8874 of which were of Albanian nationality Risk Analysis for 2018 (2018). Warsaw: Frontex. p. 63. URL: https://frontex.europa. eu/assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis_for_2018.pdf. (accessed December 12, 2020).. From 2016, with 5121 entries, the general trend is downward, being used in 2019 by 1944 people, being 1867 of Albanian nationality, followed by Chinese and Indian nationalities Risk Analysis for 2020 (2020). Warsaw: Frontex. p. 61. URL: https://frontex.europa.eu/ assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/Risk_Analysis/Annual_Risk_Analysis_2020.pdf..

Until October 2020 it has been used by 1012 people, 986 of them being Albanian Migratory Routes. FRONTEX. URL: https://frontex.europa.eu/along-eu-borders/migratory-routes/eastern-borders-route (Accessed December 19, 2020)..

CONCLUSION.

The analysis of the migratory routes towards Europe leads us to the following conclusions:

FISRT. The 2015 migration crisis highlighted the weakness of the European Institutions and the lack of coordination and cooperation among Member States. The European Union's external borders are easily permeable, with more than 200,000 irregular crossings in October 2015, and, although this figure has been considerably reduced, especially on the Mediterranean Routes, we can see that the Western African route has experienced a rise of over 1000% in 2020, indicating the current impossibility of the European Union to curb illegal immigration in the absence of a strategic plan coordinated with Member States what it represents a risk to Internal Security.

The absence of a mechanism for dealing with this type of situation in 2020 shows the weakness of the European Union, especially in the face of possible migratory situations at its external borders, whose situation is still fragile and volatile.

SECOND. It has become an objective the need to push legislative priorities for optimized management of external borders to reduce or eliminate migration routes, but the only measure adopted by the European Union that has managed to curb irregular entries has been the EU-TURKEY Agreement, which we can consider an ad hoc measure, and which makes the EU dependent on the political will of the Turkish Government.

THIRD. The European Union focused especially on the Mediterranean migratory routes, where different maritime operations were carried out. This protection of the external borders made it necessary to seek or reactivate new migratory routes such as that of West Africa where there has been a substantial increase, but we can also observe slight increases in the Western Balkan route. This shows the inability of the European Union to maintain uniform protection at all external borders and that the measures being taken as the European Border Guard is proving ineffective.

LITERATURE

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