Peace as process: recipes for Russia-Ukraine war settlement

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Peace as process: recipes for Russia-Ukraine war settlement

Taranenko A.G., Kyiv International University

The Russia-Ukraine war is one of the most serious challenges of current international security agenda. Conflict resolution is an integral part of national security framework of any country. Comprehensive national security encompasses such components as political, military, informational, ideological, as well as cultural aspects. The research problem is that it is unknown which methods can be the most appropriate for Russia-Ukraine war settlement. The research goal is to analyze the current state of Russia-Ukraine war in depth and identify important lessons learned from previous confrontations that can be applied for the peace process invigoration. In particular, the research objectives are to analyze the cases of peaceful settlements in the Balkan states and Great Britain and also consider the peacemaking potential of international organizations, such as the EU, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), the GUAM Organization for Democracy and Economic Development (GUAM) and Baltic - Adriatic - Black Sea Initiative. The selected methodology is qualitative case study.

The study results are that one can find a lot of important lessons learned in the Balkan region. Sustainable peace in the Balkans can be achieved by including this region in the system of Euro-Atlantic cooperation. In the same vein as the Balkan countries, Ukraine should look for long-term political stability in the framework of Euro-Atlantic integration. Besides, a case of particular interest for Ukraine is the Troubles peace process in Great Britain. The main conclusions are that the Balkan states' and Great Britain's experience in conflict resolution can be of particular practical interest for Ukraine. One can note that peace is not a particular point in time, but rather a continuous process. Besides, one should pay attention to information component of the peace process and inform audiences about peacemaking efforts to the extent possible. In order to settle the Russia-Ukraine war in an efficient way one should also pay attention to the memory policy component. Ukraine should also use multilateral diplomacy tools, such as international organizations, in particular, the EU, OSCE, GUAM and Baltic-Black Sea-Adriatic Initiative in order to further fight international law infringements and promote the peace process. Prospects of further research are related to usage of cultural diplomacy and track-II diplomacy tools for the Russia- Ukraine war settlement.

Keywords: Russia-Ukraine war, Ukraine, peace, OSCE, the European Union.

Мир як процес: шляхи врегулювання російсько-української війни

Російсько-українська війна є одним із найсерйозніших викликів на поточному порядку денному глобальних безпекових питань. Розв'язання конфліктів є невід'ємною частиною системи національної безпеки будь-якої країни. Комплексний підхід до питань гарантування національної безпеки охоплює такі компоненти, як політичний, військовий, інформаційний, ідеологічний, а також культурний аспекти. Мета дослідження полягає в аналізі поточного стану російсько-української війни та визначенні важливих уроків, винесених з попередніх криз, які можуть бути застосовані для розв'язання конфлікту. Цілі дослідження полягають у аналізі кейсів мирного врегулювання в балканських державах та Великій Британії, а також врахування миротворчого потенціалу міжнародних організацій, таких як ЄС, Організація з безпеки та співробітництва в Європі (ОБСЄ), Організація за демократію та економічний розвиток (ГУАМ) та Балтійсько - Адріатично - Чорноморська ініціатива. Обрана методологія є якісним тематичним дослідженням (кейс-стаді).

У результатах дослідження варто зазначити, що особливий інтерес для України являють засоби розв'язання конфліктів на Балканах та у Великій Британії. Можна знайти багато важливих уроків, винесених з урегулювання балканських криз. Сталого миру на Балканах можна досягти, включивши цей регіон до системи євроатлантичного співробітництва. Подібно до балканських країн, Україні слід шукати довгострокової політичної стабільності в рамках євроатлантичної інтеграції. Щодо кейсу Великої Британії слід звернути увагу на інформаційну складову процесу розв'язання конфлікту та інформувати аудиторію про миротворчі зусилля наскільки це можливо. Для ефективного врегулювання російсько-української війни слід також звернути увагу на компонент політики пам'яті. Можна зазначити, що мир - це не певний момент у часі, а радше тривалий і постійний процес. Основні висновки полягають у тому, що досвід Великої Британії та балканських країн у розв 'язанні конфліктів може являти собою особливий практичний інтерес для України. Україні також слід використовувати потенціал багатосторонніх інструментів дипломатії таких, як міжнародні організації, зокрема, ЄС, ОБСЄ, ГУАМ та Ініціативу Балтійського, Адріатичного, Чорного морів (проєкт Тримор 'я) з метою подальшої боротьби з порушеннями міжнародного права та сприяння врегулюванню військового конфлікту.

Перспективи подальших досліджень пов'язані з використанням культурної дипломатії та інструментів дипломатії «другого рівня» (track-II diplomacy) для врегулювання російсько- української війни.

Conflicts and wars can be classified as universal phenomena

They have been a part of humankind history since the first stages of the society development. For this reason, it is safe to say that the humankind has accumulated an enormous amount of knowledge and lessons learned in the realm of conflict resolution. Thereby conflicts can be considered as complex problems, which require equally complex and long -term solutions [17, p. 1].

Conflict resolution is an integral part of national security framework of any country. Comprehensive national security encompasses such components as political, military, informational, ideological, food and water, as well as cultural aspects. The research problem is that it is unknown which methods can be the most appropriate for Russia-Ukraine war settlement. In accordanc e with the Law of Ukraine «On National Security of Ukraine» (2018, Chapter 2 Article 3 Item 2.2), one of the fundamental principles of Ukrainian security framework is compliance with the international law norms and Ukraine's participation in mechanisms of international collective security [3, p. 1]. It is outlined that one of the key national interests is gaining membership in the European Union (EU) and North-Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Ukraine, as a founding member state of the United Nations (UN) committed to abiding by the organization's principles and values, including conflict resolution. According to the UN Charter (1945, Chapter VI, Article 33), the parties to any dispute, the continuance of which is likely to endanger the maintenance of international peace and security, shall, first of all, seek a solution by negotiation, enquiry, mediation, conciliation, arbitration and judicial settlement [20, p. 7]. Ukraine's security was breached in 2014 and the country is now facing the challenge of protecting its national sovereignty, settling Russia-Ukraine war in the East of the country and reintegrating the Crimea. The novelty of research is stipulated by the origin and character of the Russia-Ukraine war since it is considered as one of the most serious challenges of current international security agenda and its efficient resolution is an urgent task for guaranteeing stability in the European region.

The research goal is to analyze the current state of Russia-Ukraine war in depth and identify important lessons learned from previous regional conflicts that can be applied in order to mitigate the confrontation in the East of Ukraine and reintegrate the Crimea. In particular, the research objectives are to analyze the cases of peaceful settlements in the Balkan states and Great Britain and also consider the peacemaking potential of international organizations, such as the EU, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), the GUAM Organization for Democracy and Economic Development (GUAM) and Baltic - Adriatic - Black Sea Initiative. The selected methodology is qualitative case study. Some of the research restrictions are the qualitative nature of the study aimed at investigating a phenomenon in depth rather than making generalizations, studying mainly the current stage of the war without delving deeper into its origins and stance of qualitative researcher as an instrument of the study. Major sources of references are laws of Ukraine and international legislation, peer-reviewed scholarly literature, monographs, analytical reports of research agencies and international organizations, as well as statements of political leaders.

Literature Review

The topic of conflict resolution has been studied by numerous researchers worldwide and, in p articular, the Russia-Ukraine war has become a highly debated topic internationally since 2014. Researchers express various opinions about the Russia-Ukraine war and provide different assessments, however one of the most prominent conclusions is that this confrontation is one of the most serious challenges for Eastern European security agenda. Per P aduraru and Voicu, the conflict generated multiple events which changed the geopolitical configuration of Eurasia [16, p. 58]. Hale states that the reproduction of a European identity has played an important role in Ukraine's dealings with the West [18, p. 39]. As Garrone points out, in Eastern Europe, the Russian annexation of Crimea and the Ukrainian war design a stage of crisis and instability [19, p. 8]. Thereby Bebler holds that the political and legal stand-off between Ukraine and the Russian Federation will undoubtedly continue indefinitely having created a new and long lasting «frozen» conflict in Europe [11, p. 206]. Smoliy and Kulchytsky note that it is highly probable that drawing Ukraine at its incipient stage of comprehensive civil society development into a new type of 21st century war initiated a series of transformations whose implications are difficult to foresee, given post-Soviet legacy of Ukrainian statehood [7, p. 565]. Tolstov holds that in case of its “freezing” the situation in Donbas will pose a potential and real threat for economy and security of Ukraine, as well as present a point of tension in economic and military relations between the Russian Federation and the Western countries [10, p. 117]. Thus, it is necessary to identify appropriate lessons learned of previous peaceful settlements and implement relevant solutions for the Russia-Ukraine case.

Results and Discussion

Conflict resolution in a particular country often largely depends on geopolitical situation in the region. Ensuring national security is crucial for the Ukrainian society today. The Russia-Ukraine war has become one of the most important international security threats in recent years. The conflict has killed more than 13,000 people since 2014, thus becoming the biggest armed conflict in Europe since World War II and the greatest source of tension since the Cold War [15, p. 1]. The conflict has heightened tensions in Russia's relations with both the United States and Europe, complicating the prospects for cooperation elsewhere including on issues of terrorism, arms control, and a political solution in Syria [12, p. 1].

Apparently, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky made the war settlement a foreign policy priority on his agenda. In line with the law of Ukraine «On Foundations of Foreign Policy», preventing conflicts in regions bordering on Ukraine and resolving existing conflicts is considered one of the cornerstones of domestic and foreign policy of the country («Law of Ukraine «On Foundations of Domestic and Foreign Policy» 2018: Article 11, Item 2) [2, p. 1]. It is important to note that aside from political and diplomatic aspects one of the most important integrating factors for the Ukrainian society today can be the level of economic growth. Modern Ukrainian society has a significant consolidation potential despite the ambivalence of aspirations of political elites and a low level of people's trust in government, economic and legal institutions [8, p. 38].

The Balkan States Case