Theoretical and methodological fundamentals of identifica tion of the beha vior of the total liquidity indicator in the system of evaluation indicators

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National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine

Theoretical and methodological fundamentals of identifica tion of the beha vior of the total liquidity indicator in the system of evaluation indicators

Lazaryshyna I.D.

Introduction

The XXI century is characterized by the transition to the information economy - an economy based on, along with material, information resources. The usefulness of economic information and the effectiveness of management decisions depend on the quality, representativeness, reliability and other qualitative characteristics. Today, problems related to the improvement of analytical information as a component of economic information are the subject of research by many scientists: F.F. Butynets, N.A. Volkova, E.V. Mnykha, O.V. Oliynyk, I.M. Parasiy- Vergunenko, M.S. Pushkar, I.B. Sadovska, V.V. Sopko, S.I. Shkaraban and others. However, the implementation of the search function of analysis through the identification of the behavior of the main analytical indicators that form the information support of operational and strategic management is insufficiently studied. The purpose of the article is to substantiate the theoretical and methodological principles of identifying the behavior of the general solvency indicator in the system of evaluation indicators based on the use of general scientific and special methods of scientific research.

Main presentation

Today, there are a significant number of indicators that variously characterize all activities of the enterprise, assets, calculations, capital, liabilities, expenses, income, financial results, cash flows, risks, investments. Each of these indicators by itself or in a system of other indicators, grouped by a certain attribute, creates an information base for making appropriate management decisions. One of the most relevant in the system of operational and financial management is a group of liquidity indicators. From the level and dynamics of liquidity and solvency depends on the financial condition of the enterprise as a whole and the ability to achieve tactical goals. However, the issues of their dependencies and interdependence with other financial indicators have not been studied. Although this question is relevant, because any indicator does not exist in the abstract, it is influenced by other indicators of activity, as well as - the dynamics of the indicator has a direct or inverse effect on other indicators. The algorithm for identifying the behavior of the total liquidity ratio in the system of evaluation indicators of the enterprise is shown in Fig. 1.

Fig. 1. Algorithm for identifying the behavior of the total liquidity ratio in the system of evaluation indicators of the enterprise

First, it is necessary to select significant for the study of analytical indicators. In the second stage, the closeness of the relationship between the total liquidity ratio and the selected analytical indicators is assessed. The results of the assessment allow to form models of the expected behavior of analytical indicators in relation to the change of the total liquidity ratio. At the final stage of the study, the behavior of the total liquidity ratio is identified in different scenarios.

To select significant analytical indicators and establish the closeness and nature of their relationship with the total liquidity ratio, it is important to adhere to the relevant principles and qualitative characteristics of the usefulness of analytical information - relevance and representativeness (Fig. 2).

The following indicators meet these requirements the most:

Total costs;

Total income;

The overall financial result of the enterprise;

Working capital;

Net cash flow of the enterprise;

Coefficient of financial independence;

Absolute liquidity ratio;

The period of inventory turnover;

The period of turnover of receivables;

Return of current assets;

Total value of property.

To determine the nature of the direct and inverse relationships of the respective ratios of 11 analytical indicators over 30 observation periods, a linear correlation coefficient was calculated. The nature of the correlation dependences of the selected analytical indicators in relation to the total liquidity ratio is summarized in table. 1.

Table 1 The nature of correlations of significant analytical indicators with the total liquidity ratio

There is a high value of the linear correlation coefficient of the total liquidity ratio and a close direct relationship with the indicators:

coefficient of independence - 0.963;

absolute liquidity ratio - 0.895;

costs - 0.892;

income - 0.866;

financial result of activity - 0,743;

the period of turnover of receivables - 0.726.

Taking into account the nature of the dependencies of analytical indicators will allow accountants, auditors, financial managers to forecast and regulate the level of total liquidity ratio and other identified indicators.

We form a model of the expected behavior of analytical indicators in relation to the nature of changes in the average liquidity ratio (table 2).

Table 2 Model of expected behavior of analytical indicators in relation to the total liquidity ratio

The total coverage ratio is an important indicator of the level of solvency of enterprises. According to the results of our study (Table 2), the dynamics of this indicator affects or is influenced by the dynamics of groups of indicators.

The first group of such indicators, calculated on the basis of the balance of the relevant accounting accounts, include:

coefficient of financial independence;

total value of property;

absolute liquidity ratio;

cash turnover period;

the period of turnover of receivables.

The second group of indicators, the behavior of which is adequate to the dynamics of the total coverage ratio, and which are determined by the turnover of synthetic accounts, include:

the coefficient of synchronicity of the flow of accounts payable;

costs;

incomes;

gross cash flow;

coefficient of synchronicity of receivables and payables flows;

cash flow business activity ratio;

the coefficient of synchronicity of cash flow;

flow of working capital;

the total financial result of the ordinary activities of the enterprise.

The predominance of the dependence of the behavior of the indicators of identified cash flows and sources of funds on the behavior of the total coverage ratio and vice versa is noteworthy. Which indicates the correctness of the above methods.

It should be noted that the models of expected behavior have a cumulative effect - that is, the possible behavior of many indicators is monitored simultaneously.

On the basis of the proposed models it is possible to predict and, accordingly, regulate the behavior of the main evaluation indicators in real time.

For example, in accordance with institutional approaches to assessing the investment attractiveness of enterprises and organizations; analysis of the financial condition of enterprises subject to privatization; detection of signs of insolvency of the enterprise provides for the use of the coefficient of total coverage. Appropriate methods determine its normative value and the positive nature of the dynamics. Therefore, when planning the identified level of growth of this indicator, one should expect the behavior of the indicators calculated according to the balance and turnover of the relevant synthetic accounting accounts, given in table. 2. Also, if according to forecasts, and taking into account the existing negative trends in the solvency of the enterprise, it is expected to reduce the value of the total coverage ratio, according to table. 2, formed according to table. 1, will build an appropriate scenario of the behavior of the main evaluation indicators (Table 3).

Table 3 Model of possible scenarios of behavior of analytical indicators in relation to the nature of changes in the average coefficient of total coverage

The use of the Model of possible scenarios of behavior of analytical indicators in relation to the nature of changes in the average coefficient of total coverage allows to implement the predictive function of analysis - ie depending on the identified trends in assets, capital, liabilities, costs, revenues, financial results, investments, cash flows, it is possible to make a reasonable forecast of the dynamics of other control indicators without excessive labor-intensive operations and to select the best scenarios in the financial management system.

Analytical support for managerial decision-making in modern economic conditions, characterized by the constant existence of elements of uncertainty, should take into account various scenarios of development of certain economic phenomena and events. They, in turn, are determined by the provisions of the theory of value, the theory of chaos, the theory of interests, the apparatus of fuzzy logics. economic account management

Conclusion

Business entities do not always use only formalized quantitative information. Quite often they use less clear logic, expert assessments of the possible dynamics of evaluation indicators and build their rational behavior on them. Therefore, the use of the proposed methodological approach to outline the expected behavior and possible scenarios of change identified as the most important in the management of indicators is a relevant and important area of using methods of analysis of synthetic accounting accounts. In addition, they can be used in expert systems in an automated information environment to build a database.

Another important area of use of the proposed methodological approaches and methods of analysis of flow synchronicity is investment risk - management. These approaches provide the following functions: scanning (systematic monitoring of evaluation indicators); monitoring (periodic formation of the reporting database); operational regulation of financial and economic activities of the enterprise. As a result, it is through the use of, among others, methods of analysis of the synchronicity of flows and models of expected behavior of the main evaluation indicators, provides more effective management of financial condition and financial results of investor enterprises and recipient enterprises.

Taking into account the behavior of indicators that is relevant in making managerial decisions - that is the magnitude and nature of changes that can be adjusted as a result of decisionmaking - a necessary component of effective financial management on a multi-alternative basis. The implementation of the proposed methodological approach allows to achieve a more rational behavior of management entities.

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