Methodology for Achieving Leading Indicators in Strategic Planning at the Meso Level

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Siberian Federal University

Methodology for Achieving Leading Indicators in Strategic Planning at the Meso Level

Olga I. Babina and Vasily V. Nikulenkov

Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation

Abstract

Under the conditions of transformational changes typical for the current stage of development of the Russian Federation economy, it becomes extremely important to conduct research on the development of tools in the field of strategic planning at the meso level. The paper proposes a methodology for achieving strategic goals at the meso level. The methodology includes the principles and algorithm for achieving strategic goals. The principles expand the theoretical and methodological basis of planning in terms of achieving leading indicators in the strategic planning of the region. The algorithm of the methodology illustrates the relationship between leading indicators and the goals of strategic planning. The paper may be useful to graduate students, scientists of higher educational institutions, state and municipal employees involved in strategic planning, as well as other interested parties.

Keywords: region, planning, strategic planning, regional planning, leading indicators, lagging indicators, meso level, methodology for achieving leading indicators, algorithm for achieving leading indicators, simulation model.

Аннотация

Методика достижения стратегических целей на мезоуровне с помощью технологии имитационного моделирования

О.И. Бабина, В.В. Никуленков

Сибирский федеральный университет Российская Федерация, Красноярск

В условиях трансформационных изменений, характерных для современного этапа развития экономики Российской Федерации, чрезвычайно актуальным становится проведение исследований, посвященных разработке инструментов в области стратегического планирования на мезоуровне.

В статье предложена методика достижения стратегических целей на мезоуровне с помощью технологии имитационного моделирования. Методика включает в себя принципы и алгоритм достижения стратегических целей. Принципы расширяют теоретическую и методологическую базу планирования в части достижения опережающих показателей в стратегическом планировании региона. Алгоритм методики иллюстрирует взаимосвязь опережающих показателей с целями стратегического планирования.

Статья может быть полезна аспирантам, учёным высших учебных заведений, государственным и муниципальным служащим, занимающимся стратегическим планированием, а также иным заинтересованным лицам.

Ключевые слова: регион, планирование, стратегическое планирование, региональное планирование, опережающие показатели, запаздывающие показатели, мезоуровень, методика достижения опережающих показателей, алгоритм достижения опережающих показателей, имитационная модель.

Introduction

In conditions of instability and uncertainty of the external environment, it becomes extremely important to conduct research on the study of strategic planning tools at the meso level.

The key problem that prevents reaching sustainable growth at the meso level is that the heads of state structures and ordinary employees of departments have a different understanding of the strategic development goals.

This leads to the fact that in the current activities, each of them makes operational management decisions in accordance with their ideas. In addition, in operational activities, managers do not have the tools to achieve strategic goals at the meso level. This determines the necessity and relevance of this study.

Fig. 1. Conceptual scheme of the methodology for achieving strategic goals at the meso level

At present, russian and foreign scientists pay great attention to the issues of achieving strategic goals at the meso level. Among russian scientists, a prominent place is occupied by the articles of Tatarovsky Yu.A. (Tatarovsky, 2015), Shakirova A. I. (Shakiro- va, 2013; Shakirova, 2013), Korneeva I. V. et al. (Korneeva, Rusakova, 2017), Aderik- ho Yu.A. et al. (Aderikho, Kryukova, 2010), Didenko D. V. (Didenko, 2020), Khotomlyan- sky A. L. (Khotomlyansky, 2008), Korchagina I. V. et al. (Korchagina, Rogova, 2020), Sultanova D. Sh. et al. (Sultanova, Khaertdinova, 2010) and others. Among foreign scientists, this problem was studied by such scientists as Covey S. et al. (Covey, McChesney, Huling, 2023), Kovey S. R. (Kovey, 2023) and many others.

The purpose of this paper is to develop a methodology that allows you to achieve the key goals of strategic planning at the meso level through the management of leading indicators.

The methodology development for achieving strategic goals will increase the efficiency of the functioning and development of state structures. Measuring leading indicators in the analysis of the region's activities will help to see emerging difficulties, avoid failures, providing an opportunity to adjust the strategic plan in a timely manner. Therefore, continuous monitoring of leading indicators is the starting point for operational management. This approach to planning the activities of the region makes it possible to detect and solve problems before their consequences affect lagging indicators.

The following methods were used in the work: analysis, synthesis, generalization and expert assessments.

Materials and methods

All work carried out within the framework of this study can be divided into two main stages. At the first stage, a detailed analysis of scientific sources was carried out, on the basis of which it was possible to identify the essence of the concepts of `lagging indicators' and `leading indicators' regarding the activities of the region, to analyze existing approaches to achieving leading indicators in strategic planning at the meso level in domestic and foreign science.

At the second stage, experimental work was carried out to develop a methodology for achieving strategic goals at the meso level, which includes the basic principles and algorithm for achieving indicators.

Methodology for achieving strategic goals at the meso level

Under the methodology we will understand the totality of methods and techniques used in the process of analytical study of the region's activities. In this paper, the methodology for achieving leading indicators in strategic planning at the regional level includes the principles and algorithm for achieving these indicators. The methodology allows to determine the order of achievement of the strategic goals of the region. The formulated principles will expand and complement the theoretical and methodological basis of planning. The methodology algorithm illustrates the relationship between leading indicators and principles. The conceptual scheme of the technique is shown in Fig 1. The developed technique is based on the works of such scientists as Covey S. et al. (Covey, McChesney, Huling, 2023) and does not contradict them.

Principles of strategic planning

After analyzing the principles of strategic planning formulated by Ansoff I. (Ansoff, 2009), Seliverstov V. E. (Seliverstov, 2011), Smirnova O. O. (Smirnova, 2013), Razilov Z. V. (Razilov, 1986) and indicated in the Federal Law `On Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation' dated June 28, 2014 No. 172-FZ, we will choose those that should be guided, first of all, in the methodology when achieving strategic goals at the meso level: openness and information accessibility, variability of goals, innovativeness, responsibility of participants and continuity.

The principle of openness and information accessibility, formulated by Seliverstov V. E. (Seliverstov, 2011), implies information openness at all stages of the development of a strategic plan.

The principle of variability of goals (Federal Law of June 28, 2014 No. 172-FZ `On Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation', 2014). The possibility of assessing the achievement of the goals of social and economic development using quantitative and (or) qualitative target indicators, criteria and methods for their assessment.

The principle of innovation (Seliverstov, 2011). The principle implies a focus on the search and implementation of new innovative ways in the economic, social and technological development of the region, as well as in management technologies. strategic planning regional economy

The principle of responsibility of participants (Federal Law of June 28, 2014 No. 172- FZ `On Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation', 2014). According to this principle, the participants in strategic planning are responsible for the timeliness and quality of the development and adjustment of strategic planning documents, the implementation of measures to achieve the goals of social and economic development.

Continuity principle (Smirnova, 2013)). The principle implies the need for a periodic review of the parameters of regional development plans and their prolongation for the next planned period of time, taking into account the results of the planned tasks in the past period.

Algorithm for achieving strategic goals at the meso level

The algorithm for achieving the strategic goals of the region consists of five main stages.

Stage 1. Definition of the main goals. The first step in the methodology for achieving strategic goals at the meso level is the goal definition. The main goal is a goal that marks a strategically important turning point for the region and allows you to unambiguously determine the focus that will raise the organization to a qualitatively new level. According to the strategy of social and economic development of the Krasnoyarsk Territory until 2030, the main goal of the social and economic development of the region for a long-term period in the region is `the transformation of the economic model of the region from predominantly raw materials towards industrial and innovative development, carried out on the basis of the advanced development of education, science and innovation: formation on the territory of the system region of deep processing of extracted raw materials and fuel with a priority on the production of products with high added value, the creation and development of high-tech industries, the introduction of innovative technologies and the production of innovative products, the formation of new areas and directions based on the achievements of modern science and the production of new knowledge', 2021.

The main goal of the social and economic development of the region for the long term can be decomposed into the following main subgoals:

Goal 1: Ensuring a high level of material well-being of the inhabitants of the region on the basis of effective employment of the population by 2030.

Goal 2: Formation of a modern innovation infrastructure, orientation of scientific and technical developments to promising areas of development of modern society and solving the problems of social and economic development of the region by 2030.

Goal 3: Development of traditional industries of the region based on their modernization and development at a new technological level by 2030.

Stage 2. Definition of a system of indicators: leading and lagging. The next methodology stage is the definition of a indicators system. Existing economic indicators are usually divided into two types:

- delayed;

- leading.

Lagging metrics are benchmarks for critical goals. These indicators, as a rule, reflect the results of actions already taken. They are easy to identify, measure and compare, which makes lagging indicators very useful. Knowing and tracking these indicators helps to understand how to achieve the desired results at the meso level. However, the obvious disadvantage of lagging indicators is that they can give an idea of the current state of affairs too late for quick response and decision making. Lagging indicators at the meso level include such indicators as: Population, Average per capita cash income (per month), Average consumer spending per capita (per month), Average monthly nominal accrued wages of employees of organizations, Gross regional product, Balanced financial performance organizations and others.

Unlike lagging, leading indicators identify the most significant actions that need to be taken to achieve the main goal of the region. Leading indicators are factors that directly affect the result. Their value lies in the fact that leading indicators help to predict the future result and serve as a starting point on the path to improvement.

Leading indicators include: The number of negotiations held with stakeholders or organizations, The number of agreements between organizations under discussion, The number of initiated projects, The number of events held where stakeholders can contact, etc.

The list of lagging and leading indicators in the strategic planning of the region is given in Table 1.

Stage 3. Development of a simulation model. The most important methodology stage is the development of a simulation model. A simulation model is a model that can be used to determine ways and means to achieve goals in solving the problems of social and economic development of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, as well as to explore multivariate scenarios for its development through a series of computer experiments, evaluate their effectiveness and choose the most optimal one from them. option for further socio-economic development of the region. You can get acquainted in detail with the methodology for developing a simulation model at the meso level in the works Babina O. I. et al. (Babina, Vladimirova, 2021), Babina O. I. (Babina, 2022).