Escalation of the economic security problem of Russia in the conditions of sanctions pressure by Western countries

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Institute of the Service Sector and Entrepreneurship (branch) DSTU in Shakhty

Economic Service and Entrepreneurship Faculty

Escalation of the economic security problem of Russia in the conditions of sanctions pressure by Western countries

PhD in Economics Mironova D.D.

Student Lopatkina E.A.

Abstract

The article explains the essence of economic security. It is also represented in what extent sanctions pressure of Western countries affected the economic security of Russia. It is analyzed monthly dynamics of goods imports and index of industrial production in Russia, as well as there is explored average US dollar exchange rate against ruble. There is represented quarterly GDP dynamics of the leading world countries (at the annual level). There are made conclusions about prospects of Russian economy under sanctions pressure of Western countries.

Keywords: economic security, sanctions, export and import dynamics, retaliatory sanctions.

Аннотация

В статье рассмотрена сущность экономической безопасности, а также представлено, в какой степени санкционное давление западных стран влияет на экономическую безопасность России. Проанализирована помесячная динамика импорта товаров и индекса промышленного производства в России, а также среднемесячный курс доллара США к рублю. Выполнен анализ квартальной динамики ВВП ведущих стран мира (на годовом уровне). Сделаны выводы о перспективе российской экономики в условиях санкционного давления западных стран.

Ключевые слова: экономическая безопасность, санкции, динамика экспорта и импорта, ответные санкции.

Currently, due to the deteriorating political situation on the world stage, the question of the economic security ensuring is the most acute.

The aggressive policy of Western European countries, the political crisis and the sanctions are some of the reasons which explain why the stability of the Russian economy was undermined. Therefore, the issue of economic security in the circumstances of geopolitical crisis and sanctions pressure is becoming even more urgent.

There are many different interpretations of “economic security concept”.

Explanatory Dictionary of External Economy gives such interpretation of the economic security term: “the state of the national economy which provides its independence, stability, the ability to develop and improve business, maintain and improve people's living” [1].

Big Economic Dictionary provides the following concept: “Economic security is the state of law, economic relations, organizational relationships, material and intellectual resources of one's enterprise where it is guaranteed its operation stability, financial and commercial success, the progressive scientific, technological and social development” [2].

By unifying above-stated concepts, we get that economic security is a category which can be used to judge whether this state is stable or not, whether it is successful in economic terms and able to provide a high level and quality of life.

Today, sanctions are the main threat to economic security of Russia. What is the meaning of sanctions? They are characterized by the following trends:

1 Finance. The ban on the purchase of credits in foreign banks;

2 Personal sanctions. The ban on entry to some foreign countries (such as USA, Canada, Australia, EU countries); the ban for having bank accounts in foreign countries for some Russian citizens. Basically, they are representatives of politics and business;

3 The ban on import to Russia of high-tech equipment and manufacturing of military-industrial complex.

There were sanctions against Russian oil and gas companies:

“Rosneft”;

“Transneft”;

“Gazpromneft”.

The sanctions against Russian banks:

“Sberbank”;

VTB;

“Gazprombank”;

“Rosselkhozbank”.

Sanctions against Russian defense industry companies:

“Uralvagonzavod”;

“Oboronprom”;

United Aircraft Corporation (UAC).

More than that:

1 Citizens of EU and European companies are prohibited to make transactions with securities of these companies with a maturity period of more than 30 days;

2 Companies are prohibited to make operations with accounts in European banks, investment advice and control of portfolio investment, as well as organization of securities placement;

3 Citizens of the EU and European companies are prohibited for providing services of development and production of oil in deep water in the Arctic and shale deposits;

4 There are prohibited European deliveries of dual-use technologies that can be used both in civil and in the defense industry, technology and equipment required for offshore fields development, as well as access to capital markets.

Russia, in its turn, imposed retaliatory sanctions which are:

1 The food embargo related to Canada, the US, the EU, Norway and Australia; economic security russia sanction

2 The purchase restriction of light industry products;

3 The prohibition of entry into territory of Russia for officials and politicians of countries that have applied sanctions against Russia;

4 On June 24 there was published a decree by Russian President Vladimir Putin for one year extend of special economic measures against West, which was introduced by presidential decree of August 6, 2014. Action response extended from August 6, 2015 to August 5, 2016;

5 On August 13 Russia circulated a food embargo on Albania, Montenegro, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Ukraine. The last one was banned with a delay. The ban was going to come into effect if Kiev would apply to economic part of the Association Agreement with the European Union.

On the one hand, there are frequent assertions that sanctions will play a purely negative role in economic development of Russia, but this is not completely true as our country has got the opportunity to develop its own production. Thus, we can conclude that under the sanctions conditions, Russia may go the way of domestic production development and import substitution. The world practice shows that import substitution is one of the most effective ways for import renunciation and production optimization within country [3]. The Russian economy which at the moment is characterized by a large share of imports in GDP may have great potential for import substitution [4].

In the conditions of sanctions pressure the Russian economy was shaken, but, nevertheless, managed to survive. Actively developing a program of import substitution, Russia is looking for new partners in the field of high-tech industries (for example, Asian countries such as China, Vietnam and India). The establishment of domestic production is taking its active growth.

However, it is impossible to say that paradoxically identified prospects of Russian economy (which were discovered after sanctions imposition) may block the damages.

Fig. 1. Quarterly GDP dynamics of the leading world countries (at the annual level) 2005-2015 [5]

As it is seen in Figure 1, starting from 2014, GDP growth drops (drop marked as a dotted line). In comparison with pre-crisis 2007 where GDP growth was at its zenith about 10 percent, in 2015 there is admitted a drop of about 12 percentage points.

In addition, there was significant decrease of imports and exports indices.

Fig. 2. Monthly dynamics of Russian goods exports (in US dollars) and average monthly price of Urals crude oil, 2013-2015 [5]

As it is seen in Figure 2, in the spring time of 2014 exports showed steady monthly gains of 5-7 percent in annual account (due to the fact that crude oil «Urals» has been at price of around 110 dollars per barrel). Negative trends were revealed in summer of 2014 when there appeared effects of sanctions (exports drop by five percentage points). Further, as it is seen in the figure, the drop continued. In the fall of 2014 after sharp fall in energy prices there also reduced the monthly increments of Russian exports: it was hesitating at the level of -15-20%; in December 2014 - January 2015 the increments reached -25-30%. As it is seen in the figure, the oil at that time cost about 50-60 dollars per barrel. In March 2015 the monthly growth rates of exports reached the level just below the minus 35%.

Fig. 3. Monthly dynamics of goods imports (in US dollars) and index of industrial production in Russia; the average US dollar exchange rate against ruble, 2013-2015 [5]

This analysis reveals that economic development of Russia decreased by some measures (reduction of GDP growth, reduction of import and export increments). It undermines the country's economic security significantly because these economic categories directly influence on well-being of the economy. Hence the success of financial, social and fiscal policy, as well as standard of citizens living go by this influence. And this is the basis of how one's state safely in economic terms. Nevertheless, it was under the pressure of arisen problems that Russia had a chance to search for alternative ways of development, such as import substitution, development of own production, investments in domestic food sector, as well as investment in high-tech industries and the search for new foreign partners.

References

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2. Азрилиян А. Н. Большой экономический словарь / А. Н. Азрилиян. - М.: Институт новой экономики, 2007. - 1472 с.

3. Калашников А. В. Проблемы и перспективы развития российского ресторанного бизнеса в условиях реализации политики импортозамещения / А. В. Калашников, Д. Д. Миронова // Научно-методический электронный журнал «Концепт». - 2016. - Т. 15. - С. 1676-1680.

4. Миронова Д. Д. Возможности реализации стратегии импортозамещения как приоритетного направления инновационного развития угольной промышленности Ростовской области / Д. Д. Миронова, В. С. Лобунец // Успехи современной науки и образования. - 2015. - № 1. - С. 40-43.

5. Вхождение России в социально-экономический кризис: тенденции 2015 года и сравнительный анализ [Электронный ресурс] // Аналитический центр при правительстве Российской Федерации. - URL: http://ac.gov.ru/files/publication/a/5491.pdf (дата обращения: 14.10.2016).

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