Influence of different US population stratum on 2020 presidential election

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Institute of International Relations

of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv

Influence of different US population stratum on 2020 presidential election

Nanavov A.S.

PhD (Economics), Associate Professor

Ruban A.A. PhD Student

Abstract

In today's world, fair and free elections are the key to democracy. They play an integral role in the peaceful transfer of power. By casting their votes, the people elect leaders on whom the future of society depends. That is why the elections give great power to ordinary citizens: voting gives the opportunity to influence the policies of the future government, and hence their future destiny. When the founding fathers of the United States drafted and ratified the country's constitution, they did not give any role to political parties. In fact, through various constitutional mechanisms, such as the separation of powers between the executive, legislature, andjudiciary, the federal system, and the indirect election of the president by a electoral college, they sought to protect the new republic from party and factional influence. Despite the Founding Fathers, in 1800 the United States became the first nation to establish permanent political parties organized on a nationwide basis to ensure the transfer of executive power from one faction to another on the basis of elections. the development and expansion of political parties was closely linked to the expansion of suffrage.

Keywords: US presidential election, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, US domestic policy, voters

Вплив стратифікації населення США на президентські вибори 2020

Нанавов А.С. Кандидат економічних наук, доцент

Рубан А.А. Аспірант кафедри міжнародної інформації

Інститут міжнародних відносин Київського національного університету імені Тараса Шевченка

Анотація

В сучасному світі чесні та вільні вибори - запорука демократії. Вони грають невід'ємну роль передачі влади мирним шляхом. Віддаючи голоси своїх представників, народ обирає лідерів, від яких залежить майбутнє суспільства. Саме тому вибори наділяють великими повноваженнями пересічних громадян: голосування дає можливість впливати на політику майбутнього уряду, а отже, і на свою майбутню долю.Коли батьки-засновники США створювали і ратифікували Конституцію країни, вони не відводили будь-якої ролі політичним партіям.Насправді, завдяки наявності різних конституційних механізмів, таких як поділ повноважень між виконавчою, законодавчою та судовою гілками влади, федеральний устрій країни та непряме обрання президента колегією виборців, вони прагнули захистити нову республіку від впливу партій та фракційності. Попри накреслення батьків-засновників, в 1800 році США стали першою державою, в якій зародилися постійні політичні партії, організовані на загальнонаціональній основі, для того щоб забезпечити передачу виконавчої влади від однієї фракції до іншої на підставі виборів.

Розвиток і розширення політичних партій було тісно пов'язане з розширенням виборчих прав.

Ключові слова: Президентські вибори в США, Джо Байден, Дональд Трамп, внутрішня політика США, виборці

Introduction

The President of the United States has enormous international influence. In particular, how the world responds to global crises - wars, pandemics and climate change. On November 3, 2020, 59 US presidential elections took place in the United States. The two main candidates were the 45th President of the Republican Party Donald Trump and former Vice President of the Democratic Party Joe Biden. The Democratic Party, led by Joe Biden, won. Central election issues include the impact of the current COVID-19 pandemic on both social and economic policies, protests in response to the killing of George Floyd and other African Americans, the border wall with Mexico, migration policy, climate change, including the Paris Agreement, which Trump planned to withdraw from, and the future of the Affordable Care Act. Reducing jobs, rapidly changing the vectors of international politics and maintaining the position of world leader has become the basis of the US agenda.

The purpose of research. The purpose of this article is a comparative analysis of the impact of equal groups of voters on voting in the 2020 election in the United States for candidates of both parties, Democratic and Republican.

The latest literature review. In recent years, Ukrainian and international scholars have paid considerable attention to international security, namely the United States as a guarantor of this security. The domestic policies of the country's presidents play a significant role in shaping the international agenda. Recent publications on the proposed topic include US activities in international organizations and structures of multilateral cooperation [A. Sapsai, 2020]. Also E. Makarenko, M. Ryzhkov, I. Pogorskaya and N. Pipchenko in their works consider the foreign and security policy of the United States [E. Makarenko, M. Ryzhkov, I. Pogorskaya, N. Pipchenko, 2016].

Research results

Both the Republican and the Democratic parties need the support of broad segments of the population and seek to attract voters with the most diverse economic status and demographics. With the exception of African-American voters and Jews, the vast majority of whom typically vote for Democratic presidential candidates, both sides receive significant support from almost all socioeconomic groups. Parties usually show flexibility in their political positions and do not adhere too closely to any ideological positions or political goals. Traditionally, they first take care of winning elections and controlling representative bodies.

Given the broad socio-economic base of the electorate, the country largely adheres to centrist ideological views, and therefore both the leading parties themselves are essentially centrist. At the same time, they show considerable political flexibility. Such a free position from doctrinal pressure allows both Republicans and Democrats to put up with the diversity of political views in their ranks, and will be able to assimilate the protesting electorate and potential support groups of third parties. In general, Republicans are considered the Conservative Party, which bases property rights and private capital accumulation, while Democrats lean slightly to the left, preferring more liberal social and economic policies. [Fukuyama, 1989] In fact, after coming to power, both parties tended to be pragmatic.

In addition to ideological flexibility, both major US parties are characterized by decentralization of party structure. Having won the election, the president cannot count on the confidence that members of Congress from his party will steadfastly support his political initiatives, just as the leaders of his party faction in Congress cannot count on the constant vote of congressmen from his party solely in line his party. Despite long-lasting and impressive evidence of the harmony of party life within the American political system, US civil society is characterized by increasing distrust of political parties. [The Daily Telegraph, 2012]

The adoption and development of the primary electoral system as a means of nominating candidates for Congress and public administration is a tribute to populist and even anti-party public sentiment. Most Americans are skeptical of the leaders of their party organizations, which can have a huge impact on government. Opinion polls consistently indicate that a large part of the population believes that parties sometimes only confuse issues rather than explain their attitudes, and that it would be better if the ballots did not indicate party affiliation at all. Accordingly, parties are forced to accept a situation in which party affiliation as such plays a smaller role for a large number of voters.

One example is "voting for both parties". A voter may, for example, vote for a presidential candidate from his or her own party and vote for a candidate from another party in his or her constituency in a congressional election. This is what happens in our time, when both parties are represented in the government, that the president often has to run the country in a situation where the presidential party does not have a majority in one or even both houses of Congress. [Нестерович, 2011] The division of control over the executive and legislative branches of government has become common practice both at the national level and in the governments of 50 states. Some observers believe that voters even prefer this situation, as it often leads to the defeat of some major government initiatives that run counter to the interests of a number of groups of voters.

Any analysis of Donald Trump's political weakness in 2020 must also acknowledge his political strength. However, he was defeated, becoming one of four actors in the modern era, who did not receive another four years of government. He also became the first president to lose popular votes in successive elections. [Page, 2020]

Donald Trump won the presidency in 2016 in part because he was a political violator who was willing to say that it was previously impossible. But he also lost the presidency in 2020, partly because of that.

In the 2020 presidential election, highly educated Republicans, some of whom voted for Trump four years ago, were willing to give him a chance, thinking his presidency was too non- presidential. Although they understood that it would be unconventional, many believed that the way he challenged so many customs and behaviors was unacceptable and often offensive and had devastating consequences for international relations.

The main reasons why Donald Trump lost the 2020 election was the message that prevailed in all constituencies, people wanted to see normal life in the country, they wanted to see political literacy and decency that the 45th president could not provide. The political problem for Trump was that he was unable to expand his support beyond his core voter base.

Instead, the politician continued to inflame racial tensions. He intensified the use of racist sentiment in his tweets, further despising colored people and demonstrating an inability to adequately condemn the superiority of whites.

During the third attempt in his life to become president, Joe Biden and his team managed to overcome political obstacles and win. The main reason why Biden won the presidency did not really depend on him. A poll conducted by Pew Research in October 2020 found that Joe Biden had a 17 percent advantage over Donald Trump when it came to their response to the coronavirus outbreak. [Research, 2020] The pandemic and subsequent economic downturn undermined Donald Trump's campaign statements about growth and prosperity. They also expressed concern among many Americans about his presidency, due to a lack of attention, a tendency to question science, chaotic problem-solving, and so on.

The pandemic was the main reason for the fall in Donald Trump's approval ratings, which, according to Gallup, fell to 38% in the summer - and this is what Joe Biden used in his campaign. [Research, 2021] Another factor was that the nation's attention was focused on more important topics - the coronavirus pandemic, the protests after the death of George Floyd and economic problems. But it also has the benefits of Joe Biden's coherent campaign strategy to limit the candidate's publicity by maintaining a measured campaign pace and minimizing the chances of new challenges. Perhaps in a regular election, when most Americans did not worry about limiting their contact through the virus, this strategy would backfire.

During his campaign, Joe Biden tried to stay away and allow Donald Trump to be the one to be hurt by his own statements - and in the end it worked. One week before election day, Joe Biden's campaign staff released the latest commercials with calls very similar to those he launched in 2019, making it a chance for the nation to leave behind the divisions and chaos of the past four years. [Axelrod, 2020] Biden relied on the assertion that Trump divides society and incites hostility, and that the American people want a calmer and more consistent leader. Democrats managed to make this election a referendum on Donald Trump, not a choice between two candidates. So Joe Biden's winning slogan was that he wasn't Trump.

Despite pressure from the Liberals, Joe Biden pursued a centrist strategy, refusing to support a universal public health system, free college education, or a wealth tax. This allowed him to maximally attract moderate and dissatisfied Republicans during the general election campaign. This strategy was reflected in the election of presidential candidate Kamala Harris, rather than someone with stronger support from the party's left wing. The only thing Joe Biden's position was close to Bernie Sanders's was the environment and climate change. [Grandoni, 2019] Perhaps that is why the benefits of attracting young voters, for whom this issue is important, prevented the risk of alienating voters in unstable states. However, this was an exception that proved the rule. At the beginning of 2020, the pre-election treasury of the candidate from the Republican Party was almost empty. [Caputo, Bland, 2019] He started his election campaign at a disadvantage compared to the Republican candidate, who spent virtually his entire presidency accumulating campaign capital.

However, since April, Joe Biden's campaign has been very successful in raising funds, and - in part due to the waste of Donald Trump's campaign - he has ended up in a much better financial position than his opponent. In early October 2020, Joe Biden's campaign buried Republicans in a stream of television commercials in almost every key state. Six years ago, Hillary Clinton's campaign had a significant monetary advantage over Donald Trump's campaign. But in 2020, when personal campaigning was curtailed by coronavirus and Americans across the country paid much more attention to the media while sitting at home, the money helped Joe Biden deliver his message to voters. They allowed him to expand his electoral map by investing in campaigns in states that would previously be considered unpromising, such as Texas, Georgia, Ohio and Iowa. [Smith, 2020] Most of these bets were not played, but this forced Donald Trump to defend himself by changing the balance of power in once conservative Arizona, as well as gaining a competitive position in Georgia. Due to this, Biden successfully used his advantage.

On November 12, 2020, the Brookings Institution published a report entitled "Exit Polls Show Familiar and New Electoral Blocks Consolidate Biden's Victory." In it, author William H. Frey points out that Obama's victory in 2008 depended entirely on youth, people of color, and college-educated populations. He also claims that Trump won in 2016 thanks to an older generation of white people without college degrees. [Review, 2020] Frey says the same coalitions mostly existed in 2008 and 2016, although in key states on the battlefield, Biden increased his voice among some of Trump's 2016 groups, especially white and elderly Americans. [Review, 2020] Democrats won the vote of Latinos by 32%, the lowest gap since 2004, and they won the vote of Asian Americans by 27%, the lowest figure since 2008. [Review, 2020] Biden reduced the Republican preference for white men without higher education from 48% to 42%, and Democrats increased slightly by 2% among white women with higher education. People between the ages of 18 and 29 saw an increase in support for Democrats between 2016 and 2020, with the percentage of Democrats winning among this demographic group rising from 19% to 24%. [Review, 2020]

According to Edison Research, Biden received 65% of the votes of Latin Americans and 63% according to the Associated Press. Voto Latino said the Latino vote was crucial to Biden's victory in Arizona. 40% of Latin American voters who voted in 2020 did not vote in 2016, and 73% of those who voted voted for Biden. [Cohn, 2021] Florida and Texas, which have large Latin American populations, were moved by Trump. In Florida, Trump won the majority of Cuban American voters in Miami-Dade County, Florida. [Gorden, 2020] However, the Latin American vote was still crucial so that Biden could lead states such as Nevada. [Aguilera, 2020]

One of the main indicators in the electorate during the 2020 elections was the picture of jobs affected by the economic turmoil caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Because unemployment is sky-high compared to last year, according to political intelligence Morning Consult, Biden has had a lead over unemployed voters since May 2020. [Research, 2020] Biden's advantage over unemployed voters makes some sense, given the rhetoric between the two campaigns: Biden focused his economic message on helping low-income people, in contrast to Trump, who sought to help only the richest Americans. But this perceived advantage may be largely a function of demographics: the Democratic Party has a larger share of black voters than the Republican Party, which has a higher unemployment rate than white voters. In other words, unemployed voters may prefer Biden simply because his supporters are likely to be unemployed now, rather than unemployment, which affects how someone votes.

In 2020, President Biden gained about 60 percent of voters with higher education, including the vast majority of white college graduates, which helped him improve in affluent suburbs and put him at the top in key states. This was a significant turnout: in total, according to census estimates, 41 percent of those who voted in the 2020 presidential election were graduates of four-year colleges. [Research, 2020] The 2020 election was probably the first in which a Democratic candidate performed better among colored voters who graduated from college than among those without a degree. Trump has made significant strides among color voters without degrees, especially Hispanics, and for some Republicans, Mr. Trump's accomplishments have increased the likelihood that it will be easier to engage working-class color voters. Biden's superiority among voters with higher education remains in all six key states. In Arizona, Biden was in the lead over Trump among those with secondary or lower education. But this advantage reached 51% -37% among those with a bachelor's degree and 54% -39% with a post-bachelor's degree. [Research, 2020] In Florida, Biden led Trump with a 46% -45% lead among those with a high school education or less, but his lead rose to 50% -35% among those with a college education and 57% -31% among those with a college education. who has a higher education. Biden's advantage over Trump in Michigan was among those with a high school education or less. Among those with higher education, Biden's profit was 50-36%. And among those with a bachelor's degree, Biden was 46 percentage points ahead. Biden lost in North Carolina to Trump among registered voters with secondary or lower education. But among college-educated voters, Biden led Trump, and among those with higher education, Biden was 65% -25% ahead. In Pennsylvania, Trump had an advantage over Biden among those with a high school education or less. Biden was in the lead over Trump among those with higher education and graduate school. Among those with a high school education or less in Wisconsin, Trump was 47-39% ahead of Biden, but among those with a bachelor's degree, Biden was 61-28% ahead. Voters with higher education preferred Biden to Trump almost 3-1.

Thus, college graduates are now a strong democratic bloc, and they are shaping the party's future. Those without diplomas, on the other hand, joined the Republican electorate. What can be said is that the share of the population with higher education - and the electorate - will continue to grow in the foreseeable future. In 2016, Massachusetts became the first state where four-year college graduates represented the majority of voters in the presidential election. In 2020, the state was joined by New York, Colorado and Maryland, not far behind Vermont, New Jersey, Connecticut and others. [Research, 2020] Four-year college graduates across the country could represent the majority of intermediate voters over the next decade.

As for the influx of the economy, it is usually a big problem during election battles, and this 2020 election season was marked by both historically low unemployment before the pandemic and the worst job loss since the Great Depression. Current unemployment rates are the worst job losses any American president has faced in World War II election year. [Research, 2021] Since the beginning of his presidency, Trump has advertised the US economy in various speeches and tweets, and during the election campaign he continued to talk about a V-shaped economic recovery. Instead, as a Democratic candidate, Joe Biden has consistently talked about the impact of unemployment on poor Americans and focused on increasing existing social programs as his solution to the economic slowdown. His strategy to improve the economy if he becomes president is to build a better New Agenda-focused plan that promises to create cleaner jobs through infrastructure and improve clean energy.

Evidence shows that many of the fastest-growing Latin American voters are not a solid part of the democratic base. Instead, they are convincing voters, representing a potential opportunity for both Democrats and Republicans. This is especially true for voters who are not hyper-partisan: new and rare voters, as well as people who changed their votes in 2020.

Thus, based on this, the study identified the main 5 groups of voters who most influenced the voting for candidates of both parties, Democratic and Republican, such as Hispanic population, unemployed population, population with a bachelor's degree, population without a diploma and population with a diploma / with a professional degree (Table 1 and Table 2).

population stratum presidential election

Table 1. The percentage of population stratum voted for D. Trump by state

Table 2. The percentage of population stratum voted for J. Biden by state

Source: Author's calculaions

Based on the analysis of statistical data (Table 1 and Table 2), point histograms of the distribution of the studied data were constructed (fig. 1 and fig. 2), which allowed to accept the hypothesis about the suitability of the selected data set for the study using correlation-regression analysis.

Figure 1. Point bar chart of Trump's support factors

Figure 2. Point bar chart of Biden's support factors

The functional arrangements of the values of the dependent variable on the X-axis and the corresponding five studied factors form a polygon of points in which there are no signs of polynomial or sinusoidal distributions.

Thus, to determine the levels of electoral support for Presidents Biden and Trump, two linear regression equations were obtained. For Trump:

Y = -5.81 + 0.08X1 + 1.58X2 + 0.69X3 + 0.23X4 + 2.33X5 (1)

For Baiden:

Y = 99.18-0.08X1-1.55X2-0.61X3 + 0.14X4-2.29X5 (2)

Based on this, it should be noted that due to Trump's harsh actions and speeches towards the Spanish-speaking population in this group of voters, he lost his position by 0.08% of this target audience. The unemployed were one of the main groups of voters that helped Trump win the 2016 race, but failed to maintain their commitment. The population with a bachelor's degree voted 0.69% more than the Democratic Party, and Trump lost 0.61%. The population without a degree gave a slight advantage of 0.23% to Biden, but Trump also did not go into the red, his share in this target group was 0.14%. The population with a complete higher education gave their majority to the Democratic candidate, thus losing to Trump.

The obtained regression equations show that the greatest positive impact on the growth of Biden's support was the increase in the level of support among the unemployed and people with higher education - an increase of 1% increased the total number of votes cast for Biden by 1.58% and 2.33% respectively. At the same time, there was a drop in Trump's electoral support in the same groups of voters by 1.55% and 2.29%.

Conclusions

Trump has succeeded among Spanish-speaking voters. Despite the fact that Biden retained the majority of Latin American voters in 2020, Trump has succeeded in this group as a whole. There was a wide gap in education among Spanish-speaking voters: Trump did much better with those who did not have higher education than voters with higher education among Latinos. With the exception of a small shift among Spanish-speaking voters, Joe Biden's electoral coalition was very similar to Hillary Clinton's: black, Hispanic, Asian and other races cast about four out of ten. Among non-student voters, Biden increased the number of votes more than the Democratic Party in the previous election. And voters without higher education were crucial to Trump's victory in 2016, but in 2020, Biden roughly retained the share of Democrats in the group, improving performance. One of the notable features of the 2020 elections was the large gap in education among Spanishspeaking voters. In 2020, Biden won the Latin American electorate with a higher education. At the same time, Biden's advantage over Trump among Latin American voters who had no higher education was much smaller. An important group in the 2016 election was voters without four years of higher education, which was crucial to Trump's victory. Until 2016, differences in the preferences of candidates for education were generally much smaller than in 2020. In 2020, Trump recruited non-student voters - almost as much as in 2016. At the same time, voters with higher education supported Biden by about the same margin as Clinton in 2016.

Thus, the split in the United States is a constant phenomenon cultivated by racism and determined by clear cultural differences between people on the east and west coasts, on the one hand, and the rest of the country, on the other, and between voters in cities, towns, and rural areas.

References

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