Freedom of Assembly in Non-Democratic Regimes: Shifts in Policing Methods to Peaceful Protest as an Indication of Political Regime Change in Russia, Ukraine and Belarus

Upon reflection on the data on Belarus, we concluded that there were periods of policing response that do not match the expected policing response within authoritarian regimes. Through examining reports produced by human rights monitoring organisations we can see that despite the appearance a shift in their policing response, in reality during these brief periods of unexpected policing response, the methods of repression and arrest briefly shifted from view. Thus, instead of enacting arrests and repressive policing practices at the site of the protest, protest participants were subsequently arrested or harassed at their homes a few days after the protest. Through examining the broader political situation, during these periods of a brief change in repression methods the regime had entered into negotiations with the European Union and subsequently wanted to highlight the more democratic features of the state and ultimately shifted their method of repression out of the view of the media or independent observers.

One of the most visible limitations of this method is the absence of data from a few years. This does not reflect an absence of protest but rather reflects the absences of an appropriate data source. To ensure and maintain the integrity of this research, all protests selected for analysis must fulfil a criteria, including being held in a capital city, being identified as a political protest and having a range of quality video footage in which to conduct the protest event analysis on. Often it was the lack of appropriate video (either being from one single source or user, or showing a very limited timeframe of the protest) that limited a protest event from being examined.



7. Research Findings

Through the analysis of datasets from four democracy monitoring organisations, we found that within all case studies, a conclusion can be drawn regarding their regime trajectories and overall dynamics. Within Russia it was clearly observed that since 2007 there has been two very clear regime typologies present; hybrid regime and authoritarian regime. We can attribute the periods prior to 2012 as a hybrid regime and the period after 2012 as authoritarian. Within Ukraine, we can observe three regime periods being present; flawed democracy, hybrid regime and authoritarian. The first shift is alleged to have occurred in 2010 shifting the regime from a flawed democracy to a hybrid regime. Additionally, for the brief period between 2013 and 2014, the regime can be attributed to the classification of an authoritarian regime. Finally, within Belarus, one regime style was present throughout the entirety of the scope of this research and it was only designated as authoritarian.

We attributed the shifts in regime towards an authoritarian regime in Russia and Ukraine to a single focusing event. Within Russia, this focusing event was May 6th during the Bolotnaya square protest, and within Ukraine, this shift occurred on the 29th to 30th November during the Euromaidan protests. These focusing events represent an event that corresponds to both a change in policing methods to peaceful protest, a shift in the state's policy towards freedom of assembly and an overall change in the regime dynamics. This shift towards authoritarianism was additionally accompanied within both Ukraine and Russia with the implementation of a new policy on freedom of assembly. Within Belarus, because of the maintained authoritarian regime there was not a focusing event that was observed that could correspond to a change in policing methods, legislation and overall regime dynamics.

Despite the clear disregard for democratic procedures, authoritarian regimes still rely on procedural legitimation strategies to implement restrictive freedom of assembly policies. Within Ukraine implemented new voting mechanisms that were widely observed to be fraudulent and infringed on existing laws and procedural mechanism. Within Russia, the regime still implements its policies through its state legislation but through the continued consolidation of rights and freedoms, the restriction of access to the political arena for the opposition and through an extensive state party machinery ensures a policy's passing. Additionally, within the Russian case, the regime sought to defame and slander the protesters as foreign supported or foreign-funded coup attempt against the regime, prior to implementing a new policy.

A clear difference between the hybrid regime and authoritarian regimes can be observed within their policing response to peaceful protests. The differences reflect the engagement strategies and policing typology and tactics used within the protest. In hybrid regimes, an underenforced approach that used a targeted engagement is observed whilst in an authoritarian regime an over-enforced indiscriminate method of policing is observed that used paramilitary policing techniques.

When this shift in regime dynamic occurs from a hybrid regime to an authoritarian regime a new emergence of policing tactics can also be observed. This is demonstrated through the use enforcement based paramilitary tactics such as snatch and grab arrests, and the use of violent baton strikes to the head.



8. Research Conclusion

Freedom of assembly is one of three fundamental rights that is seen to be central to a fully functioning democracy, and thus, the absences or infringement of this right is a heavy reflection on a state's commitment to democratic values and standards. Having understood that the police and other attributed law enforcement officials are commonly the only organ of the state that will interact with protest participants, the interaction of the police and their method of response to peaceful assembly should be seen as both an indication of official policy and as a barometer of the regimes dynamics.

Within this research, the lack of consensus on how to determine or classify the increasingly broad range of regime typologies was seen as a very clear problem and thus lead me to develop a new unit of analysis that could help provide more clarity to this area. Thus, establishing the importance of understanding the police response to peaceful assembly, the new unit of analysis provided a tool to codify the unique features of police behaviour when responding to peaceful protests and furthermore attributed an overall typology of response to this.

Using the protest event analysis framework, this new unit of analysis sought to identify and codify the presence of 26 policing behaviour variables from protest events held in Russia, Ukraine and Belarus between the years of 2007 to 2019. Through examining over 61 hours of video footage from 40 protest events, a correlation between policing behaviour and overall regime dynamics can be affirmed.

This research hypothesised that within a country that had experienced a shift in regime towards an authoritarian regime style, a change in policing methods to peaceful protest could be identified. It was additionally hypothesised that this shift in policing methods within an authoritarian regime would be indicated through the use of more enforcement-based policing, including the use of paramilitary policing tactics, and indiscriminate violence and arrests. The research concludes that the hypothesis was correct and the shift in regime does correspond to a change in policing methods, and furthermore through the use of enforcement-based policing.

Using the protest event analysis framework, we can see that during a countries authoritarian regime period, protests were significantly attributed a typology of over-enforced or violently over-enforced policing, where tactics of indiscriminate violence and arrest were prioritised. Consequently, as hypothesised, within authoritarian regimes, we can observe a new emergence of tactics that were not previously observed during a hybrid regime. Within the research, these new policing repertoires include: snatch and grab arrests, baton strikes to the head and police charges.

Whilst it's difficult and also superfluous to understand if the change in regime dynamics or the change in policing method to peaceful protest came first, we can conclude there is a correlation. As demonstrated within both Russia and Ukraine, a single dramatic event can be shown in which the policing method to peaceful protest shifted away from the previously expected methods of state response and furthermore preluded an official change in state policy and the continuation of an enforcement-based policing response in the future. Therefore, understanding that there is a correlation between policing methods and regime dynamic, in the future, international observers may look to see how peaceful protests are responded to as a barometer to potential shifts or changes in a state's regime.

I believe that in conclusion, this research, its findings and the analytical tool that has been developed within it, has clearly demonstrated its contribution to the academic discipline and has shown its unique and novel aspect. The development and contribution this research has made can be continued as it's my belief that the comparative study of protest policing through the lens of regime change is a topic that warrants far more exploration. Furthermore, it would be interesting to see the results of this research and methodology when used on an even broader regime sample.

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