Sanctions. Are punishment or impetus for Russian economy?
Analysis of the impact of Western sanctions against Russia at the European and the domestic economy. Changes in the consumption basket of Russians as a result of the crisis. Description of the causes and consequences of the devaluation of the ruble.
|Рубрика||Международные отношения и мировая экономика|
|Размер файла||15,0 K|
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Sanctions. Are punishment or impetus for Russian economy?
К.Д. Позднякова (ЭМЭ-03)
к.ф.н., профессор Т.И. Красикова
В статье рассматривается и анализируется влияние западных санкций по отношению к России на европейские и отечественную экономики.
Ключевые слова: санкции, Европейские страны, потеря рынка сбыта, частный сектор экономики, бизнес климат, изменения потребительской корзины.
The article deals with and analyzes the Western sanctions impact against Russia at the European and national economies.
Key words: sanctions, European countries, market losses, the private sector of the economy, business climate, consumer basket changing.
Since the entering into force Western sanctions against Russia, Russian media commentators made a bold statement about the stability of the economy in Russia: "Russia may even emerge from the crisis with a stronger economy than it was before!"
Actually, the sanction impact will more reverberate on the West, than Russia. Western companies will lose access to Russian large domestic market. Thus, the Finnish Government has announced the introduction of the non-maintenance of new sanctions against the Russian Federation. Laimdota Straujuma, the Prime Minister of Latvia said in an interview with ITAR-TASS about approximate estimate of the state budget of the Russian food embargo - 55 million euros. Viktor Orban, the Prime Minister of Hungary also spoke out against sanctions: "Don't bite the hand that feeds you". Even though, sanctions will be removed, West will face with changing reality, where foreign companies will be unable to compete effectively with the new generation of Russian entrepreneurs
Greece, Spain, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Czech Republic, Finland, Hungary ... The list of countries affected by sanctions, is growing every day. Actual damages still have to evaluate both sides of the conflict, but it is clear that there will not be winners in the trade war between Russia and Europe.
However, there are not sufficient grounds to believe the story, and the Rosstat latest data confirm it. In Russia, the business climate is too problematic for a whole generation of entrepreneurs for a long time. The common capacity of industrial production grew by approximately 1.7%, while the volume of gross agricultural output grew by about 3.7% over 2014. These figures are disappointing, considering the scale of the ruble devaluation and increased upward pressure on prices, such as inflation. According to Rosstat, the rate was 11.4% in 2014 and the official forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development 01/31/2015 suggests that inflation will be 12% in 2015.
According to the materials of the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), the index of food production (including beverages and tobacco) rose by 5.5% compared to the previous year, in June 2014. Particularly, the production of meat and meat products increased by 7.9%, Manufacture of vegetable and animal oils and fats - by 14.6%, dairy products - by 3.1% in the first half of 2014. Processing and preserving of fish and seafood decreased by 3.1%. Manufacture of beverages decreased by 5.4%, including the production of vodka - by 13.6%. Manufacture of tobacco products decreased by 16.2%.
After the economic crisis start, the food industry is the only sector was supposed to keep on. Russians spend a very large share of their income on food, but their ability to acquire high-quality European goods was severely damaged due to the collapse of the ruble, and the actions of the Russian government (the Kremlin has banned imports of food from all countries imposed sanctions on Russia).
While writing this article, I conducted its own mini-survey by asking students MGOTU question: "Has your consumer basket changed after the entry into force of the sanctions?" The composition of focus groups ranged from 18 to 22 years-old, and is balanced by gender (56% - women, 44% - men). Total number of respondents is 20 peoples. The results of the survey are presented in Table 1
sanction economy crisis devaluation
Table 1. The survey results "Changing consumer basket"
% of answers
"Yes, it has changed"
"It has little changed"
"I don't care"
"No it hasn't changed, I am a patriot"
From received figures, we can conclude that most respondents care about "what is on shelves in supermarkets", furthermore, domestic goods do not satisfy needs of the consumer. Equally, it is ? of the respondents is partial or total indifferent to the changes in the consumer basket (perhaps, the age and the status factor of the respondents are influenced by answers). But 1/6 of all focus group pleased the composition of their consumption basket, which has not suffered any changes.
Russian state media talks about progressive own production and a huge number of consumers wanted buying domestic products, but in fact, such example was not so much. It is possible that devaluation will provide a small increase of domestic producers in the future. Russian consumers are not able to afford Western accustomed goods and eventually, they will be forced to buy Russian analogue goods. This history cannot be called Russian "stability", but rather a story of despair.
Of course, the government argues that Russia's economy is not influenced by Western sanctions and Russian consumers will quickly turn their attention to domestic goods, and the Russian business sector in fair condition. But in fact, Rosstat data quite clearly show the poor state of the private sector in Russia, which cannot cope with the "fill the void" left by the sanctions and the devaluation of the ruble.
4. Красикова Т.И. Иностанный язык в неязыковом вузе на постдипломном этапе обучения. В сборнике: Перспективы, организационные формы и эффективность развития сотрудничества ВУЗов стран Таможенного союза и СНГ сборник научных трудов Международной научно-практической конференции. 2013. С. 268-270.
5. Никитин В.В. Когезия как средство связи в тексте. Вопросы региональной экономики. 2010. Т. 4. №4. С. 88-99.
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