Изменения в международной торговле в условиях нестабильного миропорядка

Однако лучом надежды для развивающихся стран является тот факт, что будущие быстрорастущие потребительские рынки вряд ли будут рынками США или Западной Европы. Ожидается, что следующий миллиард потребителей будет гражданами стран БРИКС и «Группы одиннадцати». Таким образом, все будущие игры и маневры в международной торговле будут также связаны с получением доступа к этой новой потребительской базе.

Сейчас, когда многосторонность находится в тяжелом положении, а ближайшее будущее не выглядит светлым, все развивающиеся страны срочно нуждаются в подготовке и планировании на случай столкновения с усилением протекционизма в международной торговле. Только более тесное сотрудничество друг с другом защитит их интересы при новом мировом торговом порядке, который может решительно сместиться в сторону удовлетворения интересов промышленно развитых стран, по крайней мере, в краткосрочной перспективе.

Источники

Asian Development Bank (2010) Institutions for Regional Integration: Toward an Asian economic community. Philippines: ADB.

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21.11.2018) .

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Shifting Trade Matrix in Turbulent World Order The editorial board received the article in September 2019.

Abhijit Mukhopadhyay - Senior Fellow (Economy and Growth),

Observer Research Foundation

Abstract

International trade order has entered into a turbulent phase, after the deepening of trade war-like situation across the globe. What looks like a chaotic inward-looking policy making on the surface, is actually a battle for trade and technology supremacy between the USA and China. The slow but gradual shift of international trade and business towards Asia and away from North Atlantic and Western Europe provides the backdrop of this conflict. The tendency of a shift from developed to developing countries has also started to appear. In that sense, the battle for supremacy was bound to happen, as China played the principal role in that shift.

In the process, the “golden era of trade” signified in the rise of WTO has been halted while multilateralism in trade is almost in a comatose state. Fast growing economies, including the emerging ones, are going to bear most of the brunt of this trade slowdown.

Two principal protagonists of this epic battle, China and the USA, are looking for alternative sources of economic prosperities in their own ways. In the absence of multilateral platform of trade, the action plan for developing nations is getting clearer by the day. These countries have to scout for trade alliances where each can benefit economically. To do so, each of these countries has to analyse its economy and then scout for trade partners accordingly. Unpreparedness to deal with this trade turmoil may result into disastrous consequences for these countries.

Key words: Trade War; WTO; International Trade; Multilateralism; Regional Cooperation

References

Asian Development Bank (2010) Institutions for Regional Integration: Toward an Asian economic community. Philippines: ADB.

BBC News (2018) US - China Trade War: New Tariffs Come into Force. 23 August. Available at: https://www. bbc.com/news/business-45255623 (accessed 5 September 2018).

Bhagwati J.N. (2002) Free Trade Today. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Chakraborty S. (2018) US - China Tariff War to Slow Down Global Trade Growth in Q3 of CY18. Business Standard. 10 August. Available at: https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/us-china-tariff- war-to-slow-down-global-trade-growth-in-q3-of-cy18-118080901574_1.html (accessed 9 September 2018).

Dhar B. (2018) Trade Wars of the United States. Economic and Political Weekly, vol. 53, no 37, pp. 12-7.

Dutt A.K. (2006) Maturity, Stagnation and Consumer Debt: A Steindlian Approach. Metroeconomica, vol. 57, no 3, pp. 339-564.

Guttman R., Plihon D. (2008) Consumer Debt at the Center of Finance-Led Capitalism. Available at: http:// citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.640.7792&rep=rep1&type=pdf (accessed 10 November 2019).

IMF - WB - WTO - International Monetary Fund, The World Bank, and World Trade Organization (2018) Reinvigorating Trade and Inclusive Growth. 30 September. Available at: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/ Policy-Papers/Issues/2018/09/28/093018-reinvigorating-trade-and-inclusive-growth (accessed 21 November 2018).

Montgomerie J. (2007) The Logic of Neo-Liberalism and the Political Economy of Consumer Debt-Led Growth. Neo-Liberalism, State Power and Global Governance (S. Lee, S. McBride (eds)). The Netherlands: Springer.

Partington R., Rushe D. (2018) Trump Hits China with $200bn of New Tariffs as Trade War Escalates. The Guardian, 18 September. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/sep/17/donald-trump- united-states-threatens-to-impose-200bn-import-tariffs-on-china-in-trade-war (accessed 14 August 2018).

United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) (2018) Trade and Development Report 2018. United Nations. Available at: https://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/tdr2018_en.pdf (accessed 14 January 2019).

The United States Trade Representative Office (USTR) (2018) Findings of the Investigation into China's Acts. Policies, and Practices Related to Technology Transfer, Intellectual Property, and Innovation under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 . 22 March. Available at: https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/Section%20301%20 FINAL.PDF (accessed 8 November 2019).

Wouters J., Van Kerckhoven S. (2017) The G20 and the BRICS on Trade and Investment: Trends and Policies. International Organisations Research Journal, vol. 12, no 3, pp. 7-31. DOI: 10.17323/1996-7845-2017-03-7.

World Trade Organisation (WTO) (n. d.) World Trade Organization - Home Page. Available at: www.wto.org/ (accessed 19 August 2019).

World Trade Organization (WTO) (2018) World Trade Outlook Indicator. 26 November. Available at: https:// www.wto.org/english/news_e/news18_e/wtoi_26nov18_e.htm (accessed 5 January 2019).

World Trade Organization (2019a) Press Release: Global Trade Growth Loses Momentum as Trade Tensions Persist. 2 April. Available at: https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres19_e/pr837_e.htm (accessed 19 August 2019).

World Trade Organization (WTO) (2019b) World Trade Statistical Review. Available at: https://www.wto.org/ english/res_e/statis_e/wts2019_e/wts19_toc_e.htm (accessed 21 August 2019).

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