The regulatory process of merger control

The concept and essence of merger control, its features and purpose. Description of problem related to the application of the legislation in the field of competition. Assessing the regulation of mergers, the reasons for the lack of quality examinations.

Рубрика Маркетинг, реклама и торговля
Вид курсовая работа
Язык английский
Дата добавления 21.06.2016
Размер файла 1,2 M

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Table 1

Comparison Criteria for Binary Choice Models Estimated

Criteria

Probit

Logit

AIC

57,974

57,327

BIC

69,145

68,498

Log-likelihood

-23,987

-23,663

Figure 1. ROC-curve for probit

Figure 2. ROC-curve for logit

Appendix 6

Example of the Script to Conduct an Event Study in R Software

#activate the package allowing downloading Russian stock market data from the Finam

library(rusquant)

#Function to use lagged variables

shift<-function(x,shift_by){

stopifnot(is.numeric(shift_by))

stopifnot(is.numeric(x))

if (length(shift_by)>1)

return(sapply(shift_by,shift, x=x))

out<-NULL

abs_shift_by=abs(shift_by)

if (shift_by > 0 )

out<-c(tail(x,-abs_shift_by),rep(NA,abs_shift_by))

else if (shift_by < 0 )

out<-c(rep(NA,abs_shift_by), head(x,-abs_shift_by))

else

out<-x

out

}

#Download quotation of “Megafon” to estimate beta

getSymbols(Symbols="MFON", from="2013-05-10", to="2013-11-26", src="Finam", period="day")

#Transform stock prices into log-returns and set them as time-series data

MFON.lr<-diff(log(MFON[,4]))

MFON.lr<-ts(MFON.lr)

#To do the same for the MICEX Index

MICEX.lr<-diff(log(MICEX[,4]))

MICEX.lr<-ts(MICEX.lr)

#Estimate consistent beta

lm1=lm(MFON.lr~MICEX.lr)

lm2=lm(MFON.lr~shift(MICEX.lr,-1))

lm3=lm(MFON.lr~shift(MICEX.lr,+1))

cor=acf(MICEX.lr, na.action=na.pass,plot=F)$acf[2] #extract the first-order autocorrelation coefficient

beta=(coef(lm1)[2]+coef(lm2)[2]+coef(lm3)[2])/(1+2*cor)

#Additional variables indicating the length of time-series

n=length(MFON.lr)

nn=length(MICEX.lr)

#Estimate consistent alpha

a=mean(MFON.lr[2:(n-1)], na.rm=T)-beta*mean(MICEX.lr [2:(nn-1)], na.rm=T)

#Obtain quotations for the short event window

getSymbols(Symbols="MFON", from="2014-01-08", to="2014-01-22", src="Finam", period="day")

MFON.lr<-diff(log(MFON[,4]))

MFON.lr<-ts(MFON.lr)

getSymbols(Symbols="MICEX", from="2014-01-08", to="2014-01-22", src="Finam", period="day")

MICEX.lr<-diff(log(MICEX[,4]))

MICEX.lr<-ts(MICEX.lr)

#Calculate the abnormal returns

ar1=MFON.lr-a-beta*MICEX.lr

#Calculate the cumulative abnormal returns

car1=sum(ar1,na.rm = TRUE)

#Create an array of CARs

CAR=c(car1,car2,car3,car4,car5,car6,…)

#Test of significance of CARs

t.test(CAR)

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