The transformation of consumer behavior: the effect of sanctions
The consumer behavior in terms of how much citizens of Russian Federation used to buy before sanctions and after them, thus the Index of Retail Trade Volume were taken as a dependent variable. Consumer Price Index. Shopping process’s dissatisfaction.
| Рубрика | Менеджмент и трудовые отношения |
| Вид | дипломная работа |
| Язык | английский |
| Дата добавления | 01.12.2019 |
| Размер файла | 1,0 M |
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-0.352***
(0.0755)
Constant
-0.0608
-0.0593
-0.0733
-0.0790
-0.0799
-0.0650
-0.0626
-0.0681
-0.0584
-0.0504
-0.0749
-0.0644
(0.183)
(0.184)
(0.183)
(0.185)
(0.187)
(0.188)
(0.189)
(0.191)
(0.193)
(0.194)
(0.195)
(0.182)
Observations
169
168
167
166
165
164
163
162
161
160
159
158
AIC
774.2
770.7
765.8
763.8
762.2
759.7
757.5
755.8
753.8
751.7
747.3
720.7
BIC
780.5
780.1
778.2
779.3
780.8
781.4
782.3
783.6
784.6
785.5
784.2
760.5
R-squared
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.16
adjusted R-squared
-0.01
-0.00
0.00
-0.00
-0.01
-0.01
-0.02
-0.02
-0.03
-0.03
-0.04
0.09
F-stat
0.01
0.92
1.16
0.92
0.73
0.66
0.64
0.56
0.50
0.47
0.48
2.28
Appendix 6
Lags comparison (nonfood)
|
(1) |
(2) |
||
|
R12 |
R12only |
||
|
LD.Retail trade volume index (nonfood) |
-0.0299 |
||
|
(0.0767) |
|||
|
L2D.Retail trade volume index (nonfood) |
0.0933 |
||
|
(0.0761) |
|||
|
L3D.Retail trade volume index (nonfood) |
0.0832 |
||
|
(0.0765) |
|||
|
L4D.Retail trade volume index (nonfood) |
0.0305 |
||
|
(0.0767) |
|||
|
L5D.Retail trade volume index (nonfood) |
0.0444 |
||
|
(0.0767) |
|||
|
L6D.Retail trade volume index (nonfood) |
0.0279 |
||
|
(0.0766) |
|||
|
L7D.Retail trade volume index (nonfood) |
0.0752 |
||
|
(0.0764) |
|||
|
L8D.Retail trade volume index (nonfood) |
-0.00250 |
||
|
(0.0766) |
|||
|
L9D.Retail trade volume index (nonfood) |
0.0358 |
||
|
(0.0766) |
|||
|
L10D.Retail trade volume index (nonfood) |
0.0133 |
||
|
(0.0758) |
|||
|
L11D.Retail trade volume index (nonfood) |
-0.0704 |
||
|
(0.0754) |
|||
|
L12D.Retail trade volume index (nonfood) |
-0.352*** |
-0.339*** |
|
|
(0.0755) |
(0.0732) |
||
|
Constant |
-0.0644 |
-0.0869 |
|
|
(0.182) |
(0.178) |
||
|
Observations |
158 |
158 |
|
|
AIC |
720.7 |
705.6 |
|
|
BIC |
760.5 |
711.7 |
|
|
R-squared |
0.16 |
0.12 |
|
|
adjusted R-squared |
0.09 |
0.12 |
|
|
F-stat |
2.28 |
21.45 |
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001
Appendix 7
Regressions on Consumer Price indexes' lags (nonfood)
|
(1) |
(2) |
(3) |
(4) |
(5) |
(6) |
(7) |
(8) |
(9) |
(10) |
(11) |
(12) |
(13) |
||
|
R0 |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
R4 |
R5 |
R6 |
R7 |
R8 |
R9 |
R10 |
R11 |
R12 |
||
|
D.Consumer price index (nonfood) |
-1.956*** |
-0.841+ |
-0.157 |
-0.0248 |
0.000752 |
0.00766 |
0.0453 |
0.0492 |
0.0503 |
0.124 |
-0.0313 |
-0.104 |
-0.0988 |
|
|
(0.305) |
(0.439) |
(0.460) |
(0.462) |
(0.464) |
(0.467) |
(0.468) |
(0.472) |
(0.475) |
(0.478) |
(0.481) |
(0.500) |
(0.482) |
||
|
LD.Consumer price index (nonfood) |
-1.514*** |
-3.305*** |
-3.752*** |
-3.857*** |
-3.878*** |
-3.900*** |
-3.902*** |
-3.880*** |
-3.971*** |
-3.947*** |
-3.929*** |
-4.287*** |
||
|
(0.439) |
(0.635) |
(0.679) |
(0.686) |
(0.692) |
(0.692) |
(0.696) |
(0.700) |
(0.705) |
(0.700) |
(0.699) |
(0.690) |
|||
|
L2D.Consumer price index (nonfood) |
1.747*** |
2.618*** |
2.902*** |
2.946*** |
2.899*** |
2.902*** |
2.897*** |
2.904*** |
3.028*** |
3.089*** |
3.262*** |
|||
|
(0.460) |
(0.679) |
(0.731) |
(0.743) |
(0.743) |
(0.748) |
(0.751) |
(0.751) |
(0.747) |
(0.744) |
(0.721) |
||||
|
L3D.Consumer price index (nonfood) |
-0.797+ |
-1.330+ |
-1.425+ |
-1.303+ |
-1.301+ |
-1.291+ |
-1.305+ |
-1.354+ |
-1.454+ |
-1.621* |
||||
|
(0.463) |
(0.689) |
(0.747) |
(0.754) |
(0.759) |
(0.763) |
(0.762) |
(0.756) |
(0.755) |
(0.731) |
|||||
|
L4D.Consumer price index (nonfood) |
0.486 |
0.655 |
0.390 |
0.397 |
0.389 |
0.380 |
0.441 |
0.524 |
0.771 |
|||||
|
(0.466) |
(0.699) |
(0.751) |
(0.763) |
(0.767) |
(0.767) |
(0.759) |
(0.756) |
(0.733) |
||||||
|
L5D.Consumer price index (nonfood) |
-0.153 |
0.314 |
0.279 |
0.343 |
0.370 |
0.353 |
0.305 |
0.217 |
||||||
|
(0.470) |
(0.700) |
(0.757) |
(0.767) |
(0.767) |
(0.760) |
(0.756) |
(0.731) |
|||||||
|
L6D.Consumer price index (nonfood) |
-0.422 |
-0.351 |
-0.560 |
-0.699 |
-0.768 |
-0.734 |
-0.638 |
|||||||
|
(0.471) |
(0.704) |
(0.760) |
(0.767) |
(0.760) |
(0.755) |
(0.730) |
||||||||
|
L7D.Consumer price index (nonfood) |
-0.0647 |
0.337 |
0.748 |
0.980 |
1.024 |
0.995 |
||||||||
|
(0.475) |
(0.707) |
(0.760) |
(0.759) |
(0.755) |
(0.729) |
|||||||||
|
L8D.Consumer price index (nonfood) |
-0.367 |
-1.153 |
-1.719* |
-1.741* |
-1.849* |
|||||||||
|
(0.477) |
(0.710) |
(0.753) |
(0.757) |
(0.731) |
||||||||||
|
L9D.Consumer price index (nonfood) |
0.717 |
1.788* |
1.729* |
2.078** |
||||||||||
|
(0.480) |
(0.705) |
(0.750) |
(0.732) |
|||||||||||
|
L10D.Consumer price index (nonfood) |
-0.991* |
-0.819 |
-1.562* |
|||||||||||
|
(0.483) |
(0.705) |
(0.728) |
||||||||||||
|
L11D.Consumer price index (nonfood) |
-0.178 |
1.205+ |
||||||||||||
|
(0.505) |
(0.703) |
|||||||||||||
|
L12D.Consumer price index (nonfood) |
-1.330** |
|||||||||||||
|
(0.489) |
||||||||||||||
|
Constant |
-0.0933 |
-0.0962 |
-0.0893 |
-0.113 |
-0.116 |
-0.114 |
-0.102 |
-0.105 |
-0.113 |
-0.104 |
-0.101 |
-0.127 |
-0.114 |
|
|
(0.163) |
(0.159) |
(0.154) |
(0.153) |
(0.153) |
(0.155) |
(0.155) |
(0.157) |
(0.158) |
(0.158) |
(0.157) |
(0.157) |
(0.152) |
||
|
Observations |
170 |
169 |
168 |
167 |
166 |
165 |
164 |
163 |
162 |
161 |
160 |
159 |
158 |
|
|
AIC |
740.7 |
727.6 |
712.0 |
705.5 |
702.9 |
701.6 |
698.2 |
696.9 |
695.0 |
691.3 |
684.7 |
679.4 |
665.1 |
|
|
BIC |
747.0 |
737.0 |
724.5 |
721.1 |
721.6 |
723.3 |
723.0 |
724.8 |
725.9 |
725.2 |
721.6 |
719.3 |
707.9 |
|
|
R-squared |
0.20 |
0.25 |
0.31 |
0.33 |
0.33 |
0.33 |
0.34 |
0.34 |
0.34 |
0.35 |
0.37 |
0.38 |
0.42 |
|
|
adjusted R-squared |
0.19 |
0.24 |
0.30 |
0.31 |
0.31 |
0.31 |
0.31 |
0.30 |
0.30 |
0.31 |
0.32 |
0.33 |
0.36 |
|
|
F-stat |
41.07 |
27.71 |
24.65 |
19.57 |
15.80 |
13.04 |
11.37 |
9.83 |
8.73 |
8.05 |
7.91 |
7.40 |
7.88 |
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001
Appendix 8
Marginal effects
High prices
|
2011 |
Delta-method |
|||
|
Regressors |
dy/dx |
Std. Err. |
P>z |
|
|
female |
0.022438 |
0.004772 |
0 |
|
|
age |
-0.0002 |
0.000767 |
0.796 |
|
|
agesq |
-3.03E-05 |
7.09E-05 |
0.678 |
|
|
ed |
||||
|
1 |
0.01507 |
0.012296 |
0.22 |
|
|
2 |
0.030855 |
0.011166 |
0.006 |
|
|
3 |
0.038569 |
0.012071 |
0.001 |
|
|
health |
||||
|
2 |
-0.01762 |
0.013256 |
0.184 |
|
|
3 |
-0.00621 |
0.013745 |
0.652 |
|
|
4 |
0.028061 |
0.016396 |
0.087 |
|
|
5 |
-0.01441 |
0.027287 |
0.597 |
|
|
mar |
0.005957 |
0.00499 |
0.233 |
|
|
urban |
-0.06288 |
0.005048 |
0 |
|
|
Region |
yes |
yes |
yes |
|
2016 |
Delta-method |
|||
|
Regressors |
dy/dx |
Std. Err. |
P>z |
|
|
female |
0.017194 |
0.001883 |
0 |
|
|
age |
0.001 |
0.000335 |
0.003 |
|
|
agesq |
-1.7E-05 |
3.04E-05 |
0 |
|
|
ed |
||||
|
1 |
-0.00301 |
0.006845 |
0.66 |
|
|
2 |
-0.00335 |
0.006462 |
0.605 |
|
|
3 |
-0.00988 |
0.00671 |
0.141 |
|
|
health |
||||
|
2 |
0.004931 |
0.004931 |
0.317 |
|
|
3 |
0.015207 |
0.005197 |
0.003 |
|
|
4 |
0.036501 |
0.006655 |
0 |
|
|
5 |
0.035396 |
0.011265 |
0.002 |
|
|
mar |
0.00197 |
0.001999 |
0.325 |
|
|
urban |
-0.08178 |
0.001937 |
0 |
|
|
Region |
yes |
yes |
yes |
Quality
|
2011 |
Delta-method |
|||
|
Regressors |
dy/dx |
Std. Err. |
P>z |
|
|
female |
0.013528 |
0.003949 |
0.001 |
|
|
age |
-0.0005 |
0.000656 |
0.444 |
|
|
agesq |
-2.06E-06 |
6.08E-05 |
0.969 |
|
|
ed |
||||
|
1 |
0.009136 |
0.009605 |
0.342 |
|
|
2 |
0.029753 |
0.008925 |
0.001 |
|
|
3 |
0.039356 |
0.009743 |
0 |
|
|
health |
||||
|
2 |
0.004612 |
0.011417 |
0.686 |
|
|
3 |
0.001758 |
0.011696 |
0.881 |
|
|
4 |
0.023736 |
0.013895 |
0.088 |
|
|
5 |
0.034336 |
0.027128 |
0.206 |
|
|
mar |
0.003786 |
0.004107 |
0.357 |
|
|
urban |
-0.02683 |
0.004463 |
0 |
|
|
Region |
yes |
yes |
yes |
|
2016 |
Delta-method |
|||
|
Regressors |
dy/dx |
Std. Err. |
P>z |
|
|
female |
0.007647 |
0.001399 |
0 |
|
|
age |
4.03E-05 |
0.000243 |
0.869 |
|
|
agesq |
-5.03E-05 |
2.05E-05 |
0.031 |
|
|
ed |
||||
|
1 |
0.005804 |
0.00428 |
0.175 |
|
|
2 |
0.008407 |
0.004061 |
0.038 |
|
|
3 |
0.01374 |
0.004307 |
0.001 |
|
|
health |
||||
|
2 |
-0.00231 |
0.003408 |
0.499 |
|
|
3 |
0.000461 |
0.003592 |
0.898 |
|
|
4 |
0.014021 |
0.004706 |
0.003 |
|
|
5 |
0.026036 |
0.009277 |
0.005 |
|
|
mar |
0.003276 |
0.001463 |
0.025 |
|
|
urban |
-0.03229 |
0.001474 |
0 |
|
|
Region |
yes |
yes |
yes |
Assortment
|
2011 |
Delta-method |
|||
|
Regressors |
dy/dx |
Std. Err. |
P>z |
|
|
female |
0.017194 |
0.001883 |
0 |
|
|
age |
0.001 |
0.000335 |
0.003 |
|
|
agesq |
-1.7E-05 |
3.04E-05 |
0 |
|
|
ed |
||||
|
1 |
-0.00301 |
0.006845 |
0.66 |
|
|
2 |
-0.00335 |
0.006462 |
0.605 |
|
|
3 |
-0.00988 |
0.00671 |
0.141 |
|
|
health |
||||
|
2 |
0.004931 |
0.004931 |
0.317 |
|
|
3 |
0.015207 |
0.005197 |
0.003 |
|
|
4 |
0.036501 |
0.006655 |
0 |
|
|
5 |
0.035396 |
0.011265 |
0.002 |
|
|
mar |
0.00197 |
0.001999 |
0.325 |
|
|
urban |
-0.08178 |
0.001937 |
0 |
|
|
Region |
yes |
yes |
yes |
|
2016 |
Delta-method |
|||
|
Regressors |
dy/dx |
Std. Err. |
P>z |
|
|
female |
0.010472 |
0.001675 |
0 |
|
|
age |
-0.0002 |
0.000294 |
0.501 |
|
|
agesq |
-7.03E-05 |
3.00E-05 |
0.017 |
|
|
ed |
||||
|
1 |
0.010646 |
0.004803 |
0.027 |
|
|
2 |
0.019215 |
0.00442 |
0 |
|
|
3 |
0.029067 |
0.004726 |
0 |
|
|
health |
||||
|
2 |
-0.00158 |
0.00408 |
0.699 |
|
|
3 |
-0.00214 |
0.004288 |
0.617 |
|
|
4 |
0.001109 |
0.005435 |
0.838 |
|
|
5 |
0.011321 |
0.01529 |
0.459 |
|
|
mar |
0.001562 |
0.001743 |
0.37 |
|
|
urban |
-0.06547 |
0.001737 |
0 |
|
|
Region |
yes |
yes |
yes |
Appendix 9
Marginal effects for probit models with interaction term between regressors and year dummy
High prices
|
Delta-method |
||||
|
Regressors |
dy/dx |
Std. Err. |
P>z |
|
|
YEAR2011 |
0.019499 |
0.002378 |
0 |
|
|
female |
0.019109 |
0.002462 |
0 |
|
|
age |
0.000525 |
0.000413 |
0.203 |
|
|
agesq |
-1.2E-05 |
4.02E-05 |
0.005 |
|
|
ed |
||||
|
1 |
0.004806 |
0.007 |
0.492 |
|
|
2 |
0.011304 |
0.006427 |
0.079 |
|
|
3 |
0.010142 |
0.006847 |
0.139 |
|
|
health |
||||
|
2 |
-0.01233 |
0.007571 |
0.103 |
|
|
3 |
-0.0018 |
0.007814 |
0.817 |
|
|
4 |
0.027454 |
0.009237 |
0.003 |
|
|
5 |
0.006027 |
0.015006 |
0.688 |
|
|
mar |
0.004424 |
0.002608 |
0.09 |
|
|
urban |
-0.08537 |
0.003353 |
0 |
|
|
Region |
yes |
yes |
yes |
Quality
|
Delta-method |
||||
|
dy/dx |
Std. Err. |
P>z |
||
|
YEAR2011 |
0.023425 |
0.001942 |
0 |
|
|
female |
0.010034 |
0.001941 |
0 |
|
|
age |
-0.00014 |
0.000332 |
0.676 |
|
|
agesq |
-3.08E-05 |
3.04E-05 |
0.263 |
|
|
ed |
||||
|
1 |
0.008277 |
0.004956 |
0.095 |
|
|
2 |
0.017871 |
0.004582 |
0 |
|
|
3 |
0.024465 |
0.004977 |
0 |
|
|
health |
||||
|
2 |
0.000452 |
0.005672 |
0.936 |
|
|
3 |
0.0017 |
0.005826 |
0.77 |
|
|
4 |
0.020423 |
0.007046 |
0.004 |
|
|
5 |
0.029574 |
0.01381 |
0.032 |
|
|
mar |
0.003492 |
0.002041 |
0.087 |
|
|
urban |
-0.03429 |
0.002648 |
0 |
|
|
Region |
yes |
yes |
yes |
Assortment
|
Delta-method |
||||
|
dy/dx |
Std. Err. |
P>z |
||
|
YEAR2011 |
0.014414 |
0.002069 |
0 |
|
|
female |
0.012132 |
0.002132 |
0 |
|
|
age |
-0.00051 |
0.000363 |
0.16 |
|
|
agesq |
-5.07E-05 |
3.08E-05 |
0.129 |
|
|
ed |
||||
|
1 |
0.006665 |
0.00621 |
0.283 |
|
|
2 |
0.016 |
0.005736 |
0.005 |
|
|
3 |
0.028 |
0.006135 |
0 |
|
|
health |
||||
|
2 |
-0.00408 |
0.006212 |
0.511 |
|
|
3 |
-0.0008 |
0.006417 |
0.901 |
|
|
4 |
0.010144 |
0.007696 |
0.187 |
|
|
5 |
-0.00824 |
0.013876 |
0.553 |
|
|
mar |
0.000745 |
0.002232 |
0.739 |
|
|
urban |
-0.077 |
0.003171 |
0 |
|
|
Region |
yes |
yes |
yes |
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