Стратегія організації в умовах обмежень, невизначеності та непередбачуваності

Обґрунтування змісту стратегування в умовах невизначеності та ризиків. Розробка рекомендацій щодо форсайт-досліджень і сценарування бізнесу. Прогнозування гіпотетичних негативних сценаріїв. Пошук управлінських рішень для реалізації стратегії організації.

Рубрика Экономика и экономическая теория
Вид статья
Язык украинский
Дата добавления 16.08.2022
Размер файла 42,1 K

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How may we consider all these facts in strategic planning? K. Steinmuller, a German futurologist, suggests permanently predicting the emergence of “jokers”, analysing their possible influence on the business, and prognosticating hypothetical negative scenarios of events. Forming scenarios of imagined “jokers”, companies: a) test new strategic options and reveal a new perspective on these processes; b) make preventive decisions to ensure the resistance to external influences and negative scenarios of events; in many cases, this ensures the minimization of firm's expenses and losses; c) draw up more robust organizations' strategies [20]. N. N. Taleb recommends to build the resistance to negative events in general and to have an opportunity to use positive events [21].

Conclusion of the research. Drawing up a strategy for the development of a contemporary business organization occurs in a dynamic environment filled with constraints, the uncertainty, and unpredictable events. Traditional algorithms for strategizing cannot be always applied. Many strategies are not undertaken while those undertaken by a company are usually updated in the process of implementation. Owners and managers of business organizations should consider all these factors.

Short Abstract for an article. The author has analysed contemporary scientific approaches to substantiating the essence of strategizing. The author has proven that: a) a business organization deals with numerous constraints (material, financial, human resources, managerial, etc.) already in the process of drawing up a strategy; b) implementing an organization's strategy almost usually occurs under the greater or smaller uncertainty and risks; c) the factor of unpredictability may significantly affect strategizing. The author has formulated recommendations regarding applying instruments of the prognostication, foresight studies, and preparation of business scenarios. The author has attached special attention to so-called jokers with a powerful effect of influence because of the high extent of their unpredictability and uncertainty, as well as the necessity for prognosticating hypothetical negative scenarios for developing a business organization and for forming the resistance to them.

Key words: strategy, theory of constraints, uncertainty, unpredictability, “jokers”, “black swan”.

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