Scenario forecasting of consumption of main organic livestock products in Ukraine

In contrast to the currently formed dual subjective structure of the market for traditional livestock products (on the one hand households, on the other - large agricultural holdings that are granted by the state support), our suggestions are aimed at forming such a structure of production of high quality products (in particular, organic), which would be based on small, medium and moderately large production, which is expedient in terms of ensuring the welfare of animals, their free running, guaranteeing the high quality of products, the content in it useful organic substances of natural origin, saving biodiversity, the environment, restoring ecosystems and soil fertility, increase rural employment and social problems in rural areas. This will create the preconditions for ensuring sustainable development of the country, political stability, socio-demographic integrity of society and accumulation of human capital.

In the long opportunity (after 2025) of the development of the market conditions for high-quality livestock products will have an impact on institutional, structural and global competitiveness factors: integration processes and the development of transnational corporations; expansion or extinction of military conflicts; migration processes; appearance of inventions and development of innovative technologies in the field of genetic modification of livestock products; increasing consumer awareness in the field of modern biotechnology; changes of traditions, customs, culture of consumption of products of the traditional and biotechnological sectors; changes in the nutrition structure of the population in the direction of refusing to consume red meat with high levels of hypodermic and intramuscular fat (in particular, pork); level of social and economic development of Ukraine; economic conditions of functioning of domestic agroindustrial complex; educational and qualification level of the rural population; the level of corruption in the country and the possibility of rent-oriented behavior of officials; introduction or non-introduction of a full-value land market in Ukraine.

Conclusions

In Ukraine, the urgent task of transition of livestock production to an innovative type of development needs to be decided, which means, first of all, the creation of an effective institutional environment aimed not only to a strict quality control, but also in stimulating the modernization of production, the implementation of environmentally friendly technologies and genetic technologies for the production of safe products. Along with the stimulation of intensification processes, it is necessary to plan organizational and economic measures aimed at stimulating the development of organic production, initiatives for the protection of animal rights.

Given the current trends of economic thinking of the population of Ukraine, its perception of products of different sectors (traditional, biotechnological and organic), established traditions of consumption, for domestic consumers we can forecast the maximization of the beneficial effect of purchasing and consuming organic products. The author's approach to forecasting the market capacity of livestock products (originating from the traditional, organic and biotechnological sectors) is based on a comprehensive approach that provides a rational ratio of the following elements: resources - effect - quality of life - environment.

Due to the probability of a comprehensive implementation of the measures proposed by us within the author's model of the organizational and economic mechanism for improving the quality of livestock products, the volatility of the state regulation instruments is expedient to have a variant approach to forecasting the consequences of such measures in terms of the development of market conditions. According to the systemic variant (defined by us as a priority) in Ukraine for the period up to 2025 the forecasted capacity of the internal market for organic meat and meat products (in terms of meat) will amount to 3.26 bln UAH; organic milk, dairy products and butter (in terms of milk) will amount to 2.65 bln UAH; organic eggs will amount to 0.47 bln UAH. In general, the market potential capacity of the main types of organic livestock products (at constant prices in 2019) will be 6.38 bln UAH (0.2 bln Euro) or 151.9 UAH (4.9 Euro) per one person. This is much less than the current European figure of 50 euros per person.

In the potential consumer market, the share of organic livestock products in accordance with the systemic version of the solution of the quality problem will be from 1.6 % (meat and meat products) and 1.5 % (milk and dairy products) to 2.3 % (eggs), which is much lower than European indicators.

Prospects for further research on the development of the organic livestock products market in Ukraine are to substantiate the tools of state assistance to increase the capacity of this market. Firstly, it is necessary to increase the availability of the system of organic certification for agricultural producers and expand the sources of financial resources, to actualize the benefits of the introduction of the land market. Secondly, it is important to work out measures to increase the effective demand of the population, to avoid mixing the flows of traditional and organic products in the retail network. Thirdly, it is necessary to strengthen state control over compliance with the quality of organic products on the market, avoid counterfeiting, which will increase consumer confidence in the system of ensuring the functioning of the market for organic products.

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