4. Results

To give an introduction to description of the results obtained during the study, it is worth to note, that the proposed improvements might be attributed to different categories of techniques, allowing to slow down the process of physical deterioration and obsolescence of the office building. Thus, opening a cafй, installing vending machine and providing tenants with cleaning services - these are obvious examples of infrastructure improvements. Building the 5th floor, where a space for coworking and a recreation area will be organized might be considered as redevelopment and one of the most costly measures. This implies not just a change in layout, but also the new construction of additional space. Based on the principle by which the space on the top floor will be organized, it is possible to affirm that this is also a kind of improvement in infrastructure. Reducing electricity costs by installing motion sensors and sensors of presence refers to modernization of engineering systems. In turn, advertising services arenot perceived as an improvement of this business center, but the creation of an additional source of profit.

This part of the study, which contains an explanation of the results, is structured as follows: detailed review of each of the proposed improvements, confirmed by calculations; further, conducting a comparative analysis that showshow the capitalized value of the facility will change in one case or another; and then, ranking, namely the compilation of a system to determine which of the innovations will be the most beneficial.

In order to understand how the considered enhancements will affect the business center operating, it is necessary to analyze the current financial status of the facility and to predict how its activity will procced while maintaining the current conditions. Particularly, to estimate a value of the business.

Primarily, a consolidated budget is drawn up. It contains revenue data for the period from 2017 to 2019 inclusive, which consists of revenue from rent of offices and paid parking and from telecommunications services. The initial data are the values ??of the company's activities for the past years, and then, taking into account the fact that the profit growth will be constant at the level of 3%, the data for the forecast period are calculated. The established rate of growth in rental prices and other services of 3% is associated with the average annual growth rate of consumer prices of 3.1%, and the inflation rate, which, according to forecasts of the Central Bank, will be close to 4%. The information includes the calculation of gross operating profit, then EBIT and profit after taxes. Then, deductions, such as amortization, are added back to net profit. Separate calculations are made for each of the six innovations. This is done in order to compare the data obtained for each of the innovations with the case in which the business center would function in its previous mode. As a result, operating cash flow is forecasted. According to the retrospective data, at the end of 2019 it amounted to 10 539 052 rubles. Further, a forecast until 2030 inclusive is made. It is carried out for all indicators and values that make up the consolidated budget of the facility. Net operating cash flow at the end of the forecast period is 18 858 516 rubles.

The calculation of indicators for the part representing the project economy is a key stage for determining the value of the business. Thus, for computation of a number of indicators the following data is required. Firstly, it is cash flow from operating activities, which is taken from the consolidated budget for each year. Secondly, there are loan repayments in the amount of 2 400 000 rubles per year. Invested funds, i.e. equity, are allocated for 2014 and 2015: 2 727 700 rubles and 3 229 300 rubles, respectively.In order to finally get the discounted cash flow to equity, the first step is to calculate the net operating cash flow generated by the company.

The following steps that have been taken in order to obtain the discounted cash flow values ??for equity, according to the following common formula(4):

FCFE = Cash from Operations - Capital Expenditures + Debt Issued

Data on the value, composition and structure of assets are not directly affected by assessing the value of a business by the income method, but only information on the ability of assets to generate income is taken into account. The capitalized value of future income is determined by calculating the following basic indicators: the amount of future net profit and amortization; the capitalization rate and the discount rate; the period for which funds are invested in the object of assessment. The basis for determining the future cash flows is forecasted data on the future financial performance of the business, which, in turn, is defined as the difference between the projected revenue and costs.

To go further, the discount rate is taken to be the value of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital. The explanation of its calculation is discussed earlier in the section “Methodology” and is equal to 12,8%. The discounted cash flow consists of two periods: a pre-forecast period in which retrospective (historical) data are used (from 2013 to 2019), and a forecast period of 10 years in which cash flows are discounted (2020-2030). According to the capitalized cost method, the value of the valuation object is equal to the total current value of future net cash flows, which can be obtained as a result of the operation of the business. The sum of all these calculated discounted cash flows is equal to the NPV. However, for a correct assessment, it is worth remembering about the terminal value, that is, its value in the post-forecast period.This abovementioned indicator is very important, since it represents a significant share of the total value of the company being evaluated, as it occurs after the conducted estimation.

For calculation, the expected cash flow in the post-forecast period is divided by the capitalization rate of 10% and then added to the last value of the cash flow of the forecast period (year 2030). Further, this line of cash flows is discounted, receiving the NPV of the business center, taking into account its terminal value. The present value of future net cash flows, that is, the capitalized value of the business, is determined by the following formula(5):

where:

n, t = the number of time periods,

CF - Cash Flow,

R - discount rate.

As a result of the above calculations, it is obtained that, without taking into account innovations and tools and methods for increasing profit generation, the capitalized cost of the object is 145 251 262 rubles.

4.1 Results description

Cafй

Often the absence of a cafe or a dining room at a business center directly affects its occupancy and tenant loyalty when concluding the contract. Speaking about the catering facility in the business center, it usually means the classic option, when cafes, canteens or restaurants are located on the territory of the business center and are aimed only at tenants or with partial access of visitors.The main plus of opening in a business center is a quick exit to self-sufficiency. On the first day, the restaurant receives revenue due to the stable traffic of BC employees. In the case of the considered business centerthe ground floor of the building is a suitable space for opening a cafй. It will occupy 186 square meters. There are three options for cafe visitors:

1) breakfast: opening hours correspond to the office hours, which means that the cafe might be visited in the early morning. Breakfast includes a coffee / tea - drink of choice and a full meal: 2 types of cereal, scrambled eggs or eggs, pastries and more. The average cost will be 100 rubles.

2) coffee break: a small snack to take away. It can be pastries or a sandwich and coffee or tea.

3) dinner: complex lunch costs approximately 200 rubles. A visitor might make the lunch from the list of dishes: 3 courses - salad, soup, main course, in each of which 3-7 options to choose from.

The price for breakfast and lunch is based on an analysis of similar cafes in business centers. Direct operating costs include building, equipment, repair fund, expendable materials, contract services, other expenses. In the first two years this amount is 6 075 754 rubles. Also, the expenditure part is the salary of employees and other expenses related to staff consisting of chef, cooks, kitchen workers, waiters, bartenders and cashier. In total, staff costs amount to approximately 3 500 000-4 000 000 rubles depending on the number of cafe workers. In the first year of cafй operation the profit is calculated as 2 500 000 rubles. Most of the revenue is received from dinners, 70% of business center employees are expected to visit cafes at lunchtime.

When computing the modified consolidated budget in order to obtain cash flow from operating activities, the forecasted data for the cafe, such as revenue, costs, including personnel costs, and so on, are integrated into the forecast data for the business center. Accordingly, the discounted cash flow is calculated in the same way as in the base case, where the only source of profit of the business center is rent, but in the case with cafй the data of its forecasted performance is taken into account. Thus, the amount of investment in the opening of the cafe is deducted from the NPV. As a result, it is obtained that the Terminal Value (TV) equals to 276 589 234 rubles and the Net present Value (NPV) is equal to 223 421 344 rubles.The payback period after the beginning of cafй operation is 2 years. Table 3 presents the profit from cafй for the forecast period.

Table 3 Profit from cafй for the forecast period

Vending machines

In the practice of vending, there are several ways to legalize the relationship between the owner of the machine and the owner of the trading place. Most often, the parties enter into a lease of retail space.Under a vending machine, a trading place with an area of 0.5-1,5 sq. m. In the lease, the lessor (owner of the place or other responsible person) transfers the indicated area for temporary use to the lessee (operator). Rental amount is 3 600 per month. Each year the rate rises by three percent. It is planned to install two machines: on the first and third floor, where the highest traffic. Revenues for the first year of functioning of vending machines in the business center will be 86 400 rubles. To determine the rental rate, vending market of different region is analyzed, the category of the property is estimate in order to understand what benefit the organization provided the vending machines will receive.

In the case of installing vending machines in the building of the business center, a similar algorithm is used. However, it is worth considering that this type of profit generation involves leasing a small area, thereby not having a significant impact on costs. All costs that may be associated with vending machines, including repairs in case of breakage, are borne by the tenants. As a result, integrating the profit from renting a rental space for a vending machine, it is obtained that the Terminal Value equals to 170 614 190 rubles and the Net Present Value is equal to 146073317,5 rubles. Table 4 presents the profit from rental for vending mashines for the forecast period.

Table 4 Profit from rental for vending mashines for the forecast period

Cleaning services

As it is mentioned before, at the moment landlord organization provides cleanliness only of public areas in the business center and maintains the general conditions of the building. Thus, thetenantsare forced to independently provide cleaning the office premises. In this way, the provision of office cleaning services will significantly improve the conditions for tenants.Today, the staff of the business center has 2 cleaners. An additional 3 employees will be hired to provide office cleaning services. Direct operating expenses include staff costs including employees salary of 15 000 per month, personal income tax, all insurance premiums and social insurance funds, and other related expenses required to provide the service.Remuneration has remained the same as provided for in the business center at the moment.Extra charge for the first year for cleaning office premises of tenants is 52 rubles per square meter, that is, an additional payment is added to the existing rental rate. It is defined according the indicators on the market. It is estimated that employee salaries increase by 2% annually, respectively, the amount of the margin will also increase by two percent. Profit received from the provision of cleaning services is estimated at 274 286 rubles for the first year of introduction. In this case, a contract for the provision of services is concluded.

The introduction of a cleaning service in the list of services for tenants implies a change in staff costs, as well as other expenses for cleaning the premises, namely they are integrated into the consolidated budget, together with the projected revenue for the service provided to the lessor, which is expressed in the extra charge per unit area. Based on the calculations, the Terminal Value equals to 172 696 452 rubles and the Net Present Value is equal to 147 717 617rubles. Table 5 presents the profit from cleaning services for the forecast period.

Table 5 Profit from cleaning services for the forecast period

Advertising

The provision of advertising services will constitute the installation of lightboxes. Expenses includeinstallation and purchase of lightboxes. It is assumed that two advertising stands will be located inside the building, and two more outside.The price for one lightbox is approximately 10 000 rubles, and the payment for installation of one thing is 5 000.Data containing price informationare taken from resources that provide average market price of materials and that present ready business plans for creating advertising space. Respectively, the cost of organizing advertising spots in total is about 60 000 rubles. The price for placement on one advertising surface inside the building is 25 000 rubles, and outside it is 28 000 rubles. Profit for the first year of advertising services is 1 212 000 rubles. Profit received from advertising will increase annually by an average of 3%.

Relay shields (lightboxes) as well as installing vending machines do not imply costs and investments. Accordingly, the profit for the surrender of the additional area on which any advertisement is present is taken into account. It follows that the Terminal Value of the business center equals to 276 589 234 rubles and the Net Present Value is equal to 223 421 344 rubles. Table 6 presents the profit from advertising for the forecast period.

Table 6 Profit from advertising for the forecast period

5^th floor

The fifth floor superstructure is an example of business center redevelopment. The total floor area is 545 square meters and is distributed between:coworking area (200 sq. m), rest zone (80 sq.m), cafй (15 sq.m), 170 sq. m is allocated for rental offices, and 80 sq.m is common area. Coworking area is divided into two parts. The first one is open space, where the visitor has two opportunities: “start” option is daily workplace rental and “club” - monthly rent. The price for the day is 500 rubles, for the month - 4500 rubles. The second one is mini offices in the amount of 12. In this case, the rental is monthly and amounts to 5 500 rubles. For the convenience of visitors, printers and scanners, water coolers will be installed. Moreover, there is conference room with a screen and a projector. In total, the coworking area is designed for 70 people. Expenses include the costs of repairs, the purchase of furniture and equipment, the arrangement of a wardrobe and others. A recreation area is provided for all employees of the business center. The creation of such a space also serves as a source of profit, because by improving the business center the rental rate will increase. Extra charge is 180 rubles per square meterper year. According to estimates, the cost of repair, purchase of furniture and arrangement of the premises is approximately 500 000 rubles. This idea to improve the facility is costly. The cafe is a small coffee stall.Rental rate for the year 24 000 per square meter. Since the area leased is 15 sq. m, revenue from coffee stall rental is 360 000 rubles. Moreover, 170 sq. m are allocated for rent, which are distributed between 3 offices: two of 50 sq.m, and one - 70 sq. m. Initial rental rate is 8 100 rubles per year. It is planned that by the beginning of the second year the occupancy rate will be 100%.

An additional floor has the greatest changes in the structure of the consolidated budget.

As a result, new forecasted lines containing revenue from the recreation area, which is presented in the form of a mark-up for rent, are added to revenue data, revenue from coworking is also added. Other costs, repair fund, utility costs, as well as depreciation, which changes due to the extension of the floor, are also taken into account. Also, the calculation takes into account changes in the volume of borrowed funds.

Based on the calculations, the Terminal Value equals to 248 087 987 rubles and the Net Present Value is equal to 182 432 437rubles.The payback period of the project will be achieved for the fourth year of operation of all services provided by the fifth floor of the building. Table 7 presents the profit from the 5^th floor individually for each option and in total for the forecast period.

Table 7 Profit from additional floor for the forecast period

Motion sensors and sensors of presence

The suggestions discussed above are aimed at increasing income, while this one is focused on cost reduction. According to estimates, the savings in electricity costs when using sensors is 40%. The costs of providing motion sensors and the sensors of presence of the entire building include the following: motion sensors, presence sensors and its installation and connection, setting, consumables (terminals, cable, dowels). The use of indoor lighting sensors implies cost savings for energy consumption. However, at the initial stage, information is required, including the costs of the purchase and installation of motion sensors and presence sensors. Consequently, the consolidated budget has changed under the influence of lower costs charged for utilities, which include electricity consumption. The amount of investment is also deducted from the NPV. As a result of the abovementioned approach, the Terminal Value of the business equals to 179 726 853 rubles while the Net Present Value is equal to 151 793 751 rubles.The amount of savings that would have been paid for electricity without putting sensors into operation reaches the amount of investments for the fourth year. Table 8 presents savings in electricity costs for the forecast period.

Table 8 Savings in electricity costs for the forecast period

4.2 Comparative analysis

In order to identify the most successful improvement, a comparative analysis is conducted.

Table 9 Comparison of the financial indicators

According to the results, presented in the Table 9, it was found that the cafe is most likely to increase the capitalized cost of the business center by more than a half. Next in importance is the innovation that is included in the complex of the fifth floor. In this case, the capitalized value can increase by 25%. Then comes the service of providing surfaces for placing advertising lightboxes.However, in this case, the capitalized cost increases by only 3.2%. Cleaning services for tenants show the result in an increase of 1.7%, and the installation of vending machines by 0.57% respectively.

At the current stage, it becomes possible to create a system of criteria, which will be the answer to the research question: which factors affect the increasing the capitalized value of a business in the commercial real estate market in Russia?However, before that, it is worth distributing the innovations that have been analyzed according to more relevant criteria to which they relate.

In total, 4 types were identified in the process, which can be defined as: changing the infrastructure of an object, changing the structure of an object (redevelopment and modernization), introducing new services, and also improving the technical condition of the property.

The first type includes the creation of a coworking zone, a recreation area, as well as the introduction of a cafe. However, all these improvements involve a change in the structure of the object. Therefore, in this case, they are a combination of these two types. The use of light sensors refers to the technical improvement of the facility and allows to reach a new level of energy efficiency. The remaining innovations, such as cleaning services, advertising and the installation of vending machines relate to the introduction of new services for customers.

According to the data obtained, the system of criteria, starting from the most to the least effective, looks the following way:

1) upgrading the infrastructure in combination with a change in the structure of the commercial property;

2) the introduction of new services for customers;

3) improvementof the technical condition of the commercial property.

Conclusion

The current paper discusses ways to increase the capitalized value of a commercial real estate business. This area is a significant part of the economy and is divided into several sectors: office real estate, retail, industrial and warehouse facilities, as well as hotel real estate. In the global sense the object of the research is the commercial real estate market. The case study is a business center located in the city of Ryazan. The reason for the relevance and impulse to study this topic is the fact that managing a commercial property requires rational decisions, especially in the face of uncertainty. In addition, to date, the ability of companies to increase generated profits is increasing, and commercial real estate is no exception. It is an attractive asset for an investor for a number of reasons. According to Colliers (2019) the office market showed positive dynamics in 2019. The reason for this is such factors as an increase in demand, the withdrawal of frozen facilities, as well as an increase in rates. Over the three quarters of 2019, 226 000 square meters were commissioned, compared with 94,500 square meters for the same period in 2018. Speaking about the main trends, experts mention the existing shortage of space. The second trend is a declining vacancy: the vacancy rate is 6.5% in 2019, while in 2018 this indicator stood at 9.2%, and in 2017 - 11, 2%. Another trend is the growing requirements for office space from tenants. All of the abovementioned reasons prove that investors are interested in commercial real estate, and specifically in the office properties.

The general aim of the research is to compile a list of criteria that will help the investor decide on the introduction of new ways to profit and show which ones of the solutions might be the most and less profitable.In this way, the potential opportunities of the particularbusiness center are considered.

In order to expand knowledge in the field under study, theoretical literature is studied. The basis is not only books, but also previous studies, which also showed what gaps exist in the real estate industry. To conduct the study the several methods of data collection and data analysis are used. The main method that underlies research is Income Approach. It allows to estimate the business and to make a forecast. Also, fundamental analysis and comparative analysis are conducted.

After analyzing the current conditions of business center, taking into consideration external factors that might affect its performance and estimating potential opportunities of the property, a number of different variants for increasing capitalized value are made. Based on technical characteristics of the building and financial statements of the business the following is proposed:to open a cafй, to install vending machines, to build the 5th floor, where a space for coworking and a recreation area will be organized, to provide tenants with cleaning services, to provide advertising services, educe electricity costs by installing motion sensors and presence. Collected data, performed calculations and a profit forecast for 10 yearsallows to conclude that payback period for each of the proposed improvements is 2-4 years; the most beneficial enhancements are a cafй and an additional floor- these opportunities might increase capitalized value of business center by 50% and 25% respectively; installation of motion and presence sensors will reduce energy costs by 40%.Despite the fact that this business center creates the most attractive conditions for tenants and provides flexible options, there are several hidden opportunities that develop the business center and increase its competitiveness.

The results of the study show that the most effective factor to increase the capitalized value of a business is a combination of upgrading the facility's infrastructure and changing its structure. This conclusion may be due to the fact that for tenants of visits to the business center, their own infrastructure should primarily be aimed at creating favorable conditions for employees working in the office, and most often, improving the infrastructure of the facility entails the modernization or redevelopment of buildings. As for the provision of services to customers, they can also be a means of increasing the capitalized cost of a business, however, when combined, they can give a more impressive result than individually. Changes in the technical equipment also entail an increase in the capitalized cost of the business, however, in contrast to the above factors, they are aimed at reducing costs.

The findings of the study, however, should be considered with a number of accompanying limitations. Firstly, this research analyzed one type of commercial property, namely, offices. As mentioned in the theoretical part, there are other categories of commercial real estate, which also have specific characteristics. Thus, what is applicable for one type is completely unsuitable for another. A detailed exploration of the property is a rather time-consuming process, because there are a lot of influencing factors that need to be taken into account and to be evaluated. Therefore, this paper focuses on one type of commercial real estate, particularly, one specific business center is considered. Secondly,the study examines one region-Ryazan city. As a rule, indicators on the real estate market vary by region, because many factors influence values. Therefore, potential opportunities for the development of a business center in Ryazan might be completely irrelevant for such large cities as Moscow and St Petersburg. Thirdly, conclusions of the results are based on the forecast. A forecast accuracy may be reduced due to a number of factors that cannot be predicted in advance. Moreover, the business center selected for analysisoperates for three years which means it is immature. Hence, its financial indicators are not stable and number of years preceding the forecast period is few. What is more, although the conclusions and results of the study are justified by calculations and theoretical aspects, the introduction of each of the improvement and its impact on business center operating activity is a considerable project, that requires detailed plan that takes into account all possible risks and consists of thorough calculations. In addition, not all possible types of changes were considered, only one of the presented options was aimed at reducing the company's costs.

All this represents areas for possible future researches.Thus, the current research has the prospect of developing the topic further, since there are other ways to increase the capitalized value of the commercial real estate. One of such methods which is not mentioned in the paper is the introduction of a software through which the interaction between tenants, operating companies, owners, service providers and employees is established. An automated control and dispatch systems are designed to maintain the energy-efficient management of the real estate facilities. This is achieved by logically dividing the system into separate control units for engineering equipment. There are energy-efficient air conditioning systems, flexible operation algorithms for the ventilation system, heating systems, water supply and sanitation, as well as monitoring of engineering systems. However, such systems are often of high cost and therefore focused on the longer term.

Likely, considering all of the above it may be assumed that this study will be useful not only for practical application according one particular case, but in an academic standpoint as well.

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