Екологічне обґрунтування прогнозу розповсюдження основних шкідників польових культур в агроценозах України

Ключевые слова: насекомые-фитофаги, микропопуляции, адаптивные стратегии, физиологические реакции, феромони, пищевые аттрактанты, пространственно-временная структура, динамика численности, генетическая составляющая, мониторинг, прогноз.

CHAYKA V.N. Ecological substantion of prognosis of spread of the ultimate pests of the field crops in the agrocenoses of Ukraine. - Manuscript.

Doctoral dissertation, agricultural sciences, specialization code 03.00.16 - ecology, National Agrarian University of Ukraine, Kiev, 2003.

The dissertation has extended the fundamentals of the integral theory of dynamics of pest population of the agricultural crops. In addition to the claims of the existing theory the dissertation has substantiated that dynamics of density of pest population should be considered as a result of three vectors, namely: vector A-vector of genetic program of many years dynamics of the physiological state of pest, vector B - vector of the biotic regulation, and; vector C-vector of abiotic modification of the fulfillment of the genetic program by the local condition of the micropopulation habitat. Vector A upholds the ecological plasticity, which decreases during microevolution. Vector A manifests itself as biological rhythm which periodically creates the physiological potentions for pests outbreaks. Combination of vectors A and B determines whether these potentions can be realized or faded . Due to the genetic and automatic processes the waves of organism density support an ecological plasticity of pest`s population (genetic polymorphism). Periodical re-organization of the genotypical structure causes evolution of parameters of homoestasis of pest populations in accordance wich the evolution of the abiotic environment. The general state of the population is determined by integral state of complex mosaic of micropopulations.

Introduction of vector A enables to integrate all existing theories of dynamics of pest population and to explain genetical connection between the outbreaks of pest reproduction and the cycle of solar activity, wich has been debated on for almost a century.

An economic situation in agriculture essentially influences the density of pests` population. The state of economy determines the mean indices of population density and spread of pests (background level). The background in its turn determines the economic consequences of pests` outbreaks that occur according to the cycles under action of natural factors.

The multidimention of factors determining dynamics of pests` population in agrocenoses is the evidence of the insufficient reliability of phytosanitary prognosis worked out upon forecast of probable development of agroclimatic characteristics of vegetation season. It must been proved that the determination of phytosanitary state of crops in Ukraine for the last eight years is connected with drowing large areas of arable land, state of solar activity, global warming, deterioration of agromachinary and decrease in the volume measures of plants` protection.

It has been substantiated that reliable phytosanitary prognosis can be devised on the basis of analysis of the results of many years monitoring, state of solar activity, statistics of the outbreaks of local pests populations. The algorithm of forecasting of probably losses of crops and economic expediency of plant protection under the current phytosanitary situation has been devised. It has been developed, approved and put into practice the systems of instrumental monitoring, prognosis and signalization of such dangerous pests as a complex of the harmful locuses, Ostrinia nubilalis (HbN), Phthorimaea operculella (Zell), Agrotis segetum Schiff.

It has been devised the conception of the organization of the modern system of phytosanitary monitoring in Ukraine, the topical problems of further development of scientific monitoring and prognosis of ultimate pests of crops.

Key words: pests, micropopulations, genetic component, physiological reaction, pheromones, attractant, dynamics of population, monitoring, prognosis.

Размещено на Allbest.ru