Recommendation System Development for Potential Factoring Service Customer Identification

Development of an algorithm for identifying potential clients of factoring services based on information from databases of Russian banks. Its implementation in the VBA programming language. Recommendations for improving the efficiency of sales staff.

Рубрика Программирование, компьютеры и кибернетика
Вид дипломная работа
Язык английский
Дата добавления 01.12.2019
Размер файла 1,6 M

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"Scientia potentia est" is a Latin aphorism traditionally translated as "knowledge is power".

This work shows that the "knowledge" for the modern global business giants, which is referred to in the proverb - it is nothing but the data that the company carefully accumulated and stored for many decades. The question remains, what is "power"? A visual representation of the power in this case is the power of the commercial offer and a special approach to each client, which arises as a result of careful processing of the accumulated knowledge.

This study demonstrates how the information accumulated by the bank can be transformed into a valuable commercial offer for the bank and the client. Returning to the task set before the author of the study - the development of a recommendation system to identify potential customers of factoring services, it should be noted that this task has been achieved. The recommendation system can be successfully applied in any commercial bank providing factoring services.

To achieve this goal, first of all, a large-scale study of the factoring market was conducted and many financial indicators of companies were analyzed. This allowed not only to approach the task in a balanced way, but also to obtain a set of key economic criteria that most clearly reflect the client's need for factoring services. It should be noted that the study did not open any new approaches to the analysis of economic activity of the company, on the contrary, from the huge array of already known financial indicators were selected those that most clearly reflect the financial position of the company and its readiness or rather the necessity to use factoring services. In this case, the word "necessity" was used for a reason. In the banking sector, there is a very simple rule that many risk managers follow: "a good company does not need a loan." This means that if the company is profitable and all its economic cycles are verified, and business processes are optimal, then most likely this company will not be interested in either factoring or credit products. By this phrase I would like to emphasize that, despite the fact that the recommendation system is developed primarily for internal use, it also indirectly helps customers, drawing their attention to the potential financial difficulties they may face.

The practical part of the thesis presents a detailed process of creating a recommendation system, describes the algorithm of construction and all stages of technical implementation of the recommendation system in the software environment. As part of the development of the recommendation system, the problem of cold-start of the recommendation system was solved, which could arise when the factor had not previously worked with companies in this industry and segment. Also, the flow chart of the algorithm of the recommendation system and the process of its calibration when working on customers by sales staff is presented.

Testing and evaluation of economic efficiency is presented in the section "Economic effect and analysis of the results". As the main tool for evaluation, we used a simulation model based on scenario analysis, the Monte Carlo method, which allowed us to come to the conclusion that in the absence of additional external information about the client, the use of the recommendation system will allow to reduce the level of risk taken by the factoring company by 5 times, while increasing the productivity and efficiency of employees by 20%.

It should be noted that the development and testing were conducted on the basis of real data of the factor and the bank, which once again confirms the relevance and business value of the work done.

`Regarding further research in the banking sector and factoring in particular, I would like to note the following areas.

Firstly, this work did not consider the international factoring market and, accordingly, accounting by IFRS standards. As a rule, the financial results presented under RAS and IFRS do not coincide. And this is not surprising, because these two accounting systems have significant differences. In Russian practice, more attention is paid to the documentary registration of operations. While the basic principle of the international standard is the priority of economic content over legal form. And the professional judgment of the accountant is decisive in many cases, for example, in determining the beneficial use, assessing cash flows, choosing the discount rate, classification of financial instruments and so on. International standards provide the ability to generate accounts for the entire group, including the parent company and subsidiaries. Accordingly, all income, expenses, property and liabilities will be accounted for as a whole. However, in Russian practice there is no concept of consolidation. Hence, there are significant differences in the financial results reported under IFRS or RAS. All this suggests that even within the framework of this study, it is possible to take several steps towards improving the accuracy of the assessment of the financial position of the company, using not only accounts on RAS standards, but also on IFRS standards [6],[7].

Secondly, modern technologies, integration of banking platforms, Federal Tax Service databases and transaction modules of payment systems lead to an even greater accumulation of information that can be used as the development of new services for more advanced recommendation systems, as well as for other applications that allow you to quickly and effectively assess the financial position of the client. The most striking example of such integration is the connection of banks to the operators of fiscal data of large federal networks. Such integration provides opportunities for the daily collection and processing of fiscal data of retail customers. This will allow banks to control revenue, monitor trends in customer activity and make operational management decisions almost online, without waiting for the release of reports. In other words, if earlier the bank received up-to-date information about the client's condition once a quarter after the client provided financial statements, now the time lag for making a management decision is reduced to several days [11],[12].

In conclusion, I would like to add that the results will reduce the costs of banks, which will have a positive impact on both the consumer, because it will make banking products and services more accessible, and on the financial position of banks, due to reduced costs and improved business reputation.

Used literature

Internet links:

1. The evolution of the CPU. Available at: http://auratechtt.com/the-evolution-of-the-cpu/(accessed 11 May 2019).

2. Информационный обзор рынка факторинга по итогам 2018 года. Available at:http://asfact.ru/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/AFC-Y2018_open.pdf(accessed 19 February 2019).

3. Artificial Intelligence. Innovation Report.Available at:https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/de/Documents/Innovation/Artificial-Intelligence-Innovation-Report-2018-Deloitte.pdf(accessed December 2018)

4. Госзакупки и закупки госкомпаний не стали драйвером роста рынка факторинга - экспертыAvailable at:https://prozakupki.interfax.ru/articles/1097(accessed December 2018)

5. Российский рынок факторинга в 2018 году: отраслевая трансформация.Available at:https://raexpert.ru/docbank/b50/bf5/923/1a424cb3c80e3908d82142c.pdf(accessed March 2019)

6. Сравнительный анализ МСФО и РПБУ.Available at:https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/pdf/2016/06/ru-ru-ifrs-vs-russian-gaap-2012.pdf(accessed December 2018)

7. Сходства и различия МСФО и РПБУ.Available at:https://www.pwc.ru/en/ifrs/publications/assets/rar-versus-ifrs-2015.pdf(accessed December 2016)

8. Doesfactoringimprove SME accesstofinance?An empirical studyacross developing countriesAvailable at:https://fci.nl/about-factoring/master-thesis-thijmen-kaster.pdf(accessed 6 June 2018)

9. Киркеева Л. И., Куликова И. В. (2006) Факторинг как инструмент управления дебиторской задолженностью, стр. 72-74.

10. Ковалев В. В., Волкова О. Н. (2010) Анализ хозяйственной деятельности предприятия, стр. 198 - 217.

11. Doing business in Russia 2017Available at:https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/ru/Documents/tax/doing_business_in_russia_2017_web.pdf(accessed 6 May 2019)

12. Касса уходит в онлайнAvailable at:https://www.banki.ru/news/daytheme/?id=9413187 (accessed 9 February 2019)

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