Nevertheless, the stage of the policy formulation also met several enabling and constraining factors. First, the scope of green resources was limited to the three: solar, wind, and small hydro. According to the Russian RE Development Association, the cost of electricity in Russia by onshore wind will be the cheapest by 2020, small hydro will follow it closely whereas solar plants are going to be more expensive. "Informatsionnyy Byulleten': «Rynok Vozobnovlyayemoy Energetiki Rossii: Tekushchiy Status I Perspektivy Razvitiya»". 2020. Rreda.Ru. https://rreda.ru/bulletin. Moreover, the resource-geographic factor shows that wind and solar have the largest technical potential in Russia, followed at a distance by small hydro. Smeets, Niels. 2017. Op. Cit. 101: 143.

Second, the support scheme was (and is) purposely limited to the wholesale market with giant companies and huge plants' capacities over 5MW (this is the threshold). Moreover, the CRESS is available to use only for two price zones out of three which exist in Russia: European Russia and Western Siberia (see Fig.1). They are declared by the Ministry of Energy in order to delineate the electricity market between the competitive zones (1,2) and non-competitive zones (3). Ibid. That is why in our analysis we will use only regions which are within the first and second price zones where the CRESS is available to use.

Fig. 1. Russia's price zones of the wholesale electricity market. Source: Smeets, Niels. 2017. Op. Cit.

There is no logical explanation why the third price zone where there are in fact huge wind and hydro capacities and, what is more important, lots of isolated places where off-grid plants are needed was excluded. It contradicts both the goal which is set by the Government in 2009 and the resource-geographic dimension. Smeets, Niels. 2017. Op. Cit. 101: 142. Third, as it has been already said, the ATS selects projects during the tender with regard to their low CAPEX, which automatically excludes average and small businesses from the market because they are not able to bear the possible low CAPEX costs. Ibid.; Boute, Anatole. 2013. Op. Cit.

After the CRESS was more or less engineered, the harsh implementation process came to the phase in 2013 when the first tender was held.

1.3.3 The policy implementation stage

The CRESS's tender system has been functioning since 2013-2014 when the first set of tenders was held. They are still being held by the ATS annually - there are 7 of them which have been held already. All of them were organized in accordance with the rules of the game which were set initially. Smeets, Niels. 2017. Op. Cit. 101: 142. Smeets observes that from the very beginning the most attractive type of renewables among the investors was (and is) solar power. Ibid. It is proven by the fact that in the first tender more than 58 bids were for solar plants (exceeding the annual limit by 289 MW of energy), wind power was less attractive and did not even reach the year limit (105MW out of 1.1GW). Ibid. (See Fig. 2.) Hydro power was so unattractive that not even one investor applied for the competition in 2013. Further tenders sustain this pattern and three types of green power are always attractive for investors in Russia in the following order: 1) solar, 2) wind, 3) small hydro. That is so even despite the fact that solar power is the most expensive and the most geographically constrained.

Fig. 2. Annual Capacity Limits versus Tender Results 2013-2014 (MW). Source: Smeets, Niels. 2017. Op. Cit.

Such a tendency was not a big surprise. Smeets notices that while he was conducting his research, one of the interviewees who was involved into the decision making said the following: “We sometimes have the impression that the support scheme has been tailored to the benefit of the solar sector, facilitated by some major government related oligarchs”. Ibid. The neopatrimonial nature of the business-political processes in Russia described by Gel'man appears once again. Another explanation of such a tendency is more institutional. The equipment for solar plant is the only one which is produced in Russia which creates more enabling environment for solar industry to develop faster and to fulfill required LCRs. Ibid. In contrast, this is a big constraining factor for wind sector as there is not a single factory in Russia to produce wind facilities to meet LCR. Ibid. 143. The same situation is with small hydro - locally produced facilities are twice as expensive as the foreign ones. Ibid.

With respect to the Russian regions, RE projects are being developed in them differently. Now, the picture of the RE projects' distribution among the regions is the following (see Fig. 3.):

Fig. 3. Active RE plants distribution among Russian regions. Source: "Informatsionnyy Byulleten': «Rynok Vozobnovlyayemoy Energetiki Rossii: Tekushchiy Status I Perspektivy Razvitiya»". 2020. Rreda.Ru. https://rreda.ru/bulletin.

Excluding the new comer (Crimea) which is not provided with the opportunity to use the CRESS, we can see that the leaders in using RE sources are: Orengburgskaya Oblast', Astrakhanskaya Oblast', Saratovskaya Oblast', Ul'yanovskaya Oblast', Samarskaya Oblast', Kamchatskiy Krai, Altay Republic, and Bashkortostan Republic. However, after the process of qualification of the latest tenders, Krasnodarsky Krai, Rostovskaya Oblast', and Murmanskaya Oblast' are going to join the leaders.

The equipment capacities of the regions are also quite different (see Fig. 4.):

Fig. 4. Technical RE potential among Russian regions. Source: "Informatsionnyy Byulleten': «Rynok Vozobnovlyayemoy Energetiki Rossii: Tekushchiy Status I Perspektivy Razvitiya»". 2020. Rreda.Ru. https://rreda.ru/bulletin.

We can see that the most technologically developed regions are also the leaders of the project-hosting such as the Ul'yanovskaya Oblast' etc. However, it is not always the case and we can see, for instance, the Bashkortostan Republic which is obviously not a leader in the technological sphere, is still a leader in terms of number of projects - the question is why? Besides the fact that our research is trying to answer this question, there is also Smeets's explanation.

The main investors in regional development of RE are the top five winners of the tenders: “Hevel solar”, “Solar Systems”, “T-Plus”, “Vershina Development”, and - which rare - a foreign company “Fortum”. "Informatsionnyy Byulleten': «Rynok Vozobnovlyayemoy Energetiki Rossii: Tekushchiy Status I Perspektivy Razvitiya»". 2020. Rreda.Ru. https://rreda.ru/bulletin. Smeets connects a limited number of actors who accessed the tender with its results in 2013-2014 concluding that all of them to certain degree are neopatrimonially networked. Smeets, Niels. 2017. Op. Cit. 101: 142. In other words, the powerful people behind these companies blur the notions between the public and the private. Ibid. The explanation continues revealing that “the practice that politicians take leading positions in state companies and loyal oligarchs are sent out to run strategic economic assets, especially in the energy sector”. Smeets, Niels. 2014. Combating Or Cultivating Climate Change? Russia'S Approach To Renewable Energy As An Opportunity For The EU As A Facilitating Actor UACES Annual Conference. Cork. 122-123. This historically persistent informal norm both “enables and constrains actors in participation, and their chances of winning the tender”. Ibid. For instance, “Hevel Solar” is considered a joint venture of state-owned Rosnano and the private Renova which are both tied to the “Kremlin CEOs”, Anatoliy Chubais and Viktor Vekselberg. Smeets, Niels. 2017. Op. Cit. 101: 144. Companies like KompleksIndustriya and MRC Energoholding were (are) also run (not publicly) by Mikhail Abyzov, ex-Minister for Open Government Affairs. Ibid. (See Fig. 5.) That is we can logically assume that the connection either of a company or of a regional authorities with with Moscow probably tend to be important for a success in the RE project-hosting.

Fig. 5. Actors taking part in the 2013-2014 tender for solar projects. Source: "Informatsionnyy Byulleten': «Rynok Vozobnovlyayemoy Energetiki Rossii: Tekushchiy Status I Perspektivy Razvitiya»". 2020. Rreda.Ru. https://rreda.ru/bulletin.

To sum up, the CRESS is the instrument which resulted from the reaction of the Russian authorities to the crisis in 2008. It was a highly political and disputed newborn area of renewable energy sources which should complement conventional fossil fuels in electricity generation. The CRESS was launched legislatively in 2013. The same year the implementation phase was started regionally. As several authors say, the supportive mechanism has its advantages and disadvantages like the solar energy prevalence, neopatrimonial networks environment, and technological gap in many regions. energy federalism russia

In this section, we have reviewed the relevant empirical literature on the capacity based renewable energy support scheme in Russian. For better understanding of the CRESS in the regional context, we have also clarified how the federal system in Russia works, what the constitutional division between layers of power is, and whether the regions in Russia have sufficient regulatory power to influence renewables' promotion at all. Thus, we have the understanding of what the CRESS initiative is in Russia and what characterized circumstances are in which it was engineered and implemented.

2. What factors can influence energy policy

In this chapter we are going to carry out an in-depth review of the theoretical literature about renewable energy policies and factors which can influence them. We will concentrate on political factors with a possible impact on an implementation of renewable energy support policies like the CRESS in the Russian regions. We are going to link this theoretical review with the Russian federal context which has been purposely described above. It is simply because we want to identify the most appropriate literature about political factors on which our empirical analysis is going to be based.

Previous research on enabling and constraining factors of renewable energy support schemes generally focuses on energy importing countries. Smeets, Niels. 2017. Op. Cit.: 139.; Chang, Shiyan, and H Bruyninckx. 2011. "Wind Energy In China: From Ad Hoc Projects To Strategic Policy". Renewable Energy Law And Policy, 1-17.; Darmani, Anna, Niklas Arvidsson, Antonio Hidalgo, and Jose. Albors. 2014. "What Drives The Development Of Renewable Energy Technologies? Toward A Typology For The Systemic Drivers". Renewable And Sustainable Energy Reviews 38: 834-847. Logically, they have to secure their energy supply and stimulate “indigenous energy resources” to lower import dependence. Their political and economic incentives are dictated by their necessity. However, if we take a look at energy-endowed countries (in our case - Russia), their drivers and barriers are not as transparent and, what is more important, they are not as studied.

Academic pioneers wonder why an energy-rich country “would want to develop relatively “Relative to domestic substitution goods : gas and nuclear electricity generation” - Smeets's note. more expensive renewable energy sources” which may potentially threaten its own oil and gas production. Smeets, Niels. 2018. "The Green Menace: Unraveling Russia'S Elite Discourse On Enabling And Constraining Factors Of Renewable Energy Policies". Energy Research & Social Science 40: 248. As far as we can see, economic determinants of such incentives are vague - that is why the vast majority of scholars pays attention to political factors influencing the mentioned process. So, the main focus of this chapter is enabling and constraining factors in the context of energy-endowed countries.

We also cannot mention without Bayer and Urpelainen's note about a difference between incentives to develop RE in democracies and autocracies. Their main argument states that the more democratic a country is, the more sensitive its electorate to the environmental issues that are rising are. Bayer, Patrick, and Johannes Urpelainen. 2016. "It Is All About Political Incentives: Democracy And The Renewable Feed-In Tariff". The Journal Of Politics 78 (2): 603-619. In other words, citizens of democratic states support RE more often or even more likely than autocratic societies. In the latter, we still can observe such RE tendencies, but choices for RE are made by interest groups and not citizens. Ibid. That is why studying the Russian case by analyzing political factors of RE adoption seems appropriate for us once again.

We will not pay so much attention to democratic-autocratic differences in our chapter. It is only because we have already chosen for ourselves, with the reference to Gel'man's notes on Russian neopatrimonial decision-making nature, that Russia has to be analyzed more as autocratic than democratic state. Gel'man, Vladimir. Op. Cit. 455-473.

Smeets's research about energy-endowed states and RE represents one of the most popular trends in RE policies studies - `renewable energy federalism'. Ibid. As well as proponents of this trend, we are going to consider the regional role in the renewable energy development in energy-rich countries as a significant one. Boute, Anatole. 2013. Op. Cit., 4. Consequently, the term `energy federalism' will be also covered in this chapter. In order to narrow down the scope of literature we need to review and to make our research concrete, we will concentrate on the regional perspectives of why and how the RE sphere is developed in Russia.

The last but not the least point we are going to cover in the chapter is the context within which both political factors and the regional path exist. As it was mentioned in the introduction, we will rely on new institutional approach while doing the research. We believe that the distribution of interests and resources of political actors and informal and formal rules of the game they exist in, can positively complement the regional angle of our research.

First, we will go through the literature on energy federalism. Then, we will slightly move to new institutionalist approach and to the overview of enabling, and constraining factors of renewable energy support schemes.

2.1 Renewable energy federalism

Before we describe potential factors, which can make regions implement renewable energy support polices, we have to prove that the regional perspective to study renewable energy policies in Russia (federation by the Constitution) is not taken out of thin air. Indeed, there is a big debate in political science about which level of government is more appropriate to promote renewable energy in federations. Scholars like Boute and professional community like Council of European Energy Regulators rise the question: is it more efficient to maintain renewables “in a decentralized way at the level of an individual subnational unit” or will a national approach be more plausible? "The Support Of Electricity From Renewable Energy Sources - Accompanying Document To The Proposal For A Directive On The Promotion Of The Use Of Energy From Renewable Sources". 2020. Eur-Lex.Europa.Eu. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52008SC0057. Based on the environmental federalism literature we are going to try to answer this question and make a conclusion with regard to Russia - whether the regional determinants we will identify matter.

According to Engel and Sovacool, there are several criteria which need to be taken into account to “evaluate the efficiency of a regional (decentralized) versus a federal (centralized) approach to the promotion of renewable energy”: (1) what is aimed to be protected (i.e. global climate change mitigation or local environmental protection); (2) what are the costs of promotion; and (3) investments. Engel, Kirsten H. Op. Cit. 79-105.; Sovacool, Benjamin K. Op. Cit. 241-261.

As for the first criterion, it is important to understand that the appropriate level of government depends on the expected geographical externalities of the renewable energy incorporation, Spence claims. Spence, David. 2012. "Federalism, Regulatory Lags, And The Political Economy Of Energy Production". University Of Texas School Of Law, no. 222: 21. It generally means that the main idea of renewable energy is to lower carbon dioxide emissions and to mitigate climate change, so, the globality of the goal refers to the global actions which have be taken by a country. That is why, as Snyder also argues, for the goal of mitigating climate change, a centralized approach “better matches the geographic scope of the problem at hand than do state or local approaches”. Snyder, Jared. 2009. The Changing Climate Of Cooperative Federalism: The Dynamic Role Of The States In A National Strategy To Combat Climate Change. eScholarship, University of California. In contrast, economic and environmental local benefits of renewable energy better match the local approaches which frequently supersede the climate change mitigation goal. Ibid.

In Russia, Korppoo and Vatansever state, fighting the climate change is far beyond the political priority. Korppoo, Anna, and Adnan Vatansever. 2012. A Climate Vision For Russia: From Rhetoric To Action. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. They make such conclusion basing on facts that there are no real actions behind the loud political statements and high goals. The production of electricity with the use of green technologies is still less than 1% presently after almost 12 years of “sustainable development” throughout Russia (despite the comparatively high quantitative goal of 2.5% by 2024). However, some actions are still in place and they cannot be explained by global environmental protection. Alternatively, local benefits “are more important elements for the development of renewable energy in Russia”. Boute, Anatole. 2013. Op. Cit., 5. Regional renewable energy policies can be a way to address waste problems, to stimulate employment or to improve the security of energy supply in regions like Belgorod, Archangelsk, or Kaluga. Ibid.

The second criterion in the environmental (energy) federalism literature falls between two academic positions. On the one hand, proponents of centralized approach proclaim that a uniform renewable energy support policy may benefit industry more, especially in terms of transaction costs' reduction. Sovacool, Benjamin K. 2008. Op. Cit.: 241. On the other hand, regional approach advocates that local resource distribution is more rational than centralized because it considers regional diversity. Faure, Michael G., and Jason Scott Johnston. 2008. "The Law And Economics Of Environmental Federalism: Europe And The United States Compared". SSRN Electronic Journal, 205-274. Notwithstanding, Pursley and Wiseman make a research where shows that regional-level regulation entails less costs. Pursley, G, and H Wiseman. 2010. "Local Energy". Emory 60: 877.

In Russia, the situation is similar to theoretical debates. On the one hand, a uniform support scheme could, in theory, “reduce transaction costs for investors and present `“learning effects” benefits”, Sovacool and Cooper state. Sovacool, Benjamin K., and Christopher Cooper. 2007. "Big Is Beautiful: The Case For Federal Leadership On A National Renewable Portfolio Standard". The Electricity Journal 20 (4): 48-61. On the other hand, a uniform renewable energy policy can be hardly applied to the tremendous Russian territory, diverse climate and different regions' development so that a decentralized approach would be better to apply. For now, the CRESS policy is something in the middle because the legal regulations are real barriers for local authorities to act in accordance to their will, but still there is a place for creativity like it was demonstrated in Belgorod, Tomsk Oblast', etc.

The third criterion can be considered as the most crucial because investments' attraction in RE sphere is what a support mechanism is usually about. Here we have the same logic of dichotomy: proponents of a unified approach extract the positive impact of uniform rules on investment predictability. From investors' point of view, a financial instability which is frequently triggered by the regional approach is considered the most important risk factor “for investors in renewable energy since the level of financial support from the government is the most important element influencing expected profit”. Schwab, K, and X Sala-i-Martin. 2011. "The Global Competitiveness Report 2010-2011". World Economic Forum. In the decentralized approach defense, despite the threat to investments, decentralization in renewable energy policies positively influences regional authorities to introduce innovations and new agenda not being afraid of federal restrictions. Engel, Kirsten H. 2015. Op. Cit., 79-105.; Sovacool, Benjamin K. 2008Op. Cit.: 241-261. Sovacool and Engel also suggest that “regions can serve as `laboratories' to test different environmental policy instruments that are later used at federal level”. Ibid.

As for Russia, this criterion, though, has a unique status. We have to remember that Russia's investment climate per se is not relatively stable or predictable, neither is property rights' protection or enforcement of contracts, as Busygina and Filippov conclude. Busygina, Irina, and Mikhail Filippov. 2013. "Low Quality Of National Governance And Uneven Economic Competiveness Of The Russian Regions". SSRN Electronic Journal. The same logic is applicable to the Russian regions. That is why Boute sees, in theory, that more stable renewable energy investments are more important than the entrepreneurship of the Russian regions (this is a strong argument for federal level support schemes for RE). Boute, Anatole. 2013. Op. Cit., 8. However, the theory and the reality, as a rule, are far from each other. The comparatively cheap fossil fuels in Russia appreciably lower the federal level policy-makers' activity in alternative electricity production. Ibid. Boute suggests that the key reason for that is the political priority of low electricity prices. Ibid. It means that the only thing they care about is prices. If a region manages to keep them stable and, simultaneously, launches a RE mechanism, there will be no opposition from the center. That is why aforementioned regions have a chance to adopt “regional legislation to promote the development of renewable energy sources”. Ibid.

To sum up, according to the energy federalism literature and some empirical assumptions about Russia which are made by Boute we can say that the regional perspective to study renewable energy policies in Russia is appropriate. Academic disputes outline three important points: (1) if a country is not driven by climate change goals (according to its political priorities) while incorporating renewable energy support mechanisms, regional (local) development is the promising factor to explain it; (2) there is the majority of scholars who think that the decentralized approach to promote renewables is less expensive and more sensitive to regional diversity; (3) it is not as clear what is more important: stable investments or regions as innovators among RE politics authors, but the Russian empirical assumptions show that regional entrepreneurial will is more effective in conditions of federal silence. All three criteria, to a certain extent, are echoed by the Russian case that allows us to consider that to look at them while studying the RE support mechanism is appropriate. The next step in this chapter is to review the literature which covers different factors which make subnational units (regions) implement or not renewable energy supportive mechanisms. However, before that, we will also try to cover renewable energy policies as a “policy process” to better understand what political factors we have to analyze.

2.2 What are enabling and constraining factors for implementation

After the justification of the regional perspective which has been conducted above, we can proceed to the understanding of political factors contributing to the regions' choice (not) to implement renewable energy supportive mechanisms. In order to identify them, first and foremost, we have to drill into several aspects. First, we should review literature about “policy” itself, what this “policy process” means and when the milestone moment of the implementation (for our research) appears. Second, it is worth taking a look at already depicted relevant political factors (with respect to new institutionalism) which are able to have an impact on the process in regions of energy-endowed countries because the RE policy is not conducted in the vacuum.

What do we mean by `policy process'? Generally, it is a way reforms or changes happen from the point of view of political science. However, it implies not only the fact that old rules were denied, and new ones are declared. It implies what problems are behind these changes, how these problems - citing Sabatier - “are conceptualized and brought to government for solution, how governmental institutions formulate alternatives and select policy solutions and those solutions get implemented, evaluated, and revised”. Sabatier, Paul. 2014. Theories Of The Policy Process. Westview Press. Thereby, it is evident that policy process has several stages first invented by Lasswell. These stages then were interpreted by Brewer in term `policy cycle'. Brewer, Garry D. 1974. "The Policy Sciences Emerge: To Nurture And Structure A Discipline". Policy Sciences 5 (3): 239-244.

Usually policy cycle consists of five stages which are suggested by Howlett: “1) identifying new issues requiring government actions (agenda-setting); 2) formulation of alternative solutions to solve a set issue (policy formulation); 3) selection one of alternatives (decision making); 4) implementation of policy (policy implementation); 5) assessing and monitoring of policy effectiveness towards an issue (evaluation)”. Howlett, Michael. 2003. Studying Public Policy: Policy Cycles And Policy Subsystems. Oxford University Press.

For our research, the fourth stage of implementation of a policy is the most important because the Russian CRESS has become available as the supportive mechanism for renewable energy development in regions since this stage. A question can be raised with regard to such choice of this stage for our work: why is it important for us to divide policy process into stages? The answer is that there are different factors influencing different stages. We cannot take policy process as it is. For instance, factors of experts-engineers' impact on a new policy process have the greatest impact on a policy when the second stage of formulation is in place. However, during the fourth stage which is the key for us experts' influence would be drastically reduced. but other factors would still influence it. We will not be able to consider that at the level of our analysis, but it is important to understand which factors influence the chosen stage.

It is necessary to mention that many authors like Doonan and Riker, for instance, look at the policy process as indivisible from federalism which is crucial for our research as well. Doonan, Michael. 2013. "American Federalism In Practice: The Formulation And Implementation Of Contemporary Health Policy". Brookings Institution Press, 169.; Riker, William H. 1955. "The Senate And American Federalism". American Political Science Review 49 (2): 452-469. As authors say, first and foremost, relations between federal and regional levels are formed during the legislative process (stages 2-3). Ibid. These stages are usually characterized by the struggle among interest groups for their own profits, by politics. For the Russian interest groups, referring to Gel'man's note about Russian policymaking, it is the opportunity to make a new policy more profitable for their positions. Nevertheless, the reason why we mention these facts is that such politics are not finished during that stage and frequently are transferred to the next stage which is the implementation.

Having said so, we can logically conclude that the federal environment of the policy process and the fact that we take the implementation stage for the research, as well as the Russian patrimonial empirical reality might allow certain regional interest groups, institutions with both formal and informal components have an appreciable effect on regions' decision towards RE support policy implementation. Thus, we have just underlined the new institutional nature of possible factors we are going to test quantitatively. We divide them correspondingly: actors (politicians, interest groups), institutions (elections etc.), and structures (non-political factors encompassing economy, environment and geography).

2.2.1 Governors' and legislatures' upcoming elections

As one of those factors affecting the choice of regions (not) to implement federal RE supportive policy, political business cycles are seen as a frontrunner. Political business cycles push politicians in the end of their political term to make a stake on low-risk populistic policies with no long-term perspectives. Such short-term low risks policies allow them to try to gain electorate support as quick as possible to possibly win an upcoming election. Such an effect reduces so called `windows of opportunities' for unpopular policies. Nordhaus, William D. 1975. "The Political Business Cycle". The Review Of Economic Studies 42 (2): 169.; Akhmedov A.M. Chelovecheskiy Kapital i Politicheskiye Biznes-tsikly // Akhmedov, A. 2006. "Chelovecheskiy Kapital I Politicheskiye Biznes-Tsikly". Konsortsium Ekonomicheskikh Issledovanii€ I Obrazovaniya, Rossiya I SNG, no. 6: 7. The author of this theory William Nordhaus shows that during the pre-election period there is an industrial and inflation growth. Ibid. Based on that, he thinks that upcoming elections have an impact on the behavior of politicians who will not risk launching unpopular policies. There are of course different types of elections: governors' and legislatures' ones. They are held at different times, so, in the conditions of a federation, there are several political business cycles all over a country.

The same logic can be applied to Russia. There are different regions with different political structures and, consequently, with different electoral cycles. That is why regarding the federal initiative to promote renewable energy in regions, which was called CRESS, can accidently match with upcoming elections so that governors or legislatures will not risk launching it. In other words, due to the reason that the CRESS can influence electricity prices and, consequently, citizens' comfort zone, it is considered by regional politicians as the risky policy before the elections. However, considering the patrimonial nature of Russian politics, politicians will not implement it not due to the electorate sensitivity, but due to the risk that electorate's discomfort caused by their actions will be punished by the center. It means that these regional politicians can be dismissed from their offices or can be not appointed to a reelection. In our analysis we will use the factor of upcoming elections as one of the independent variables.

2.2.2 Lock-in effect

Another possible factor which literature suggests is called the `lock-in' effect. The oft-cited effect of institutional `stickiness' appears “when there are complex and large-scale socio-technological systems which remain dominant by creating strong resistance against introducing new technologies”. Goldthau, Andreas, and Benjamin K. Sovacool. 2012. "The Uniqueness Of The Energy Security, Justice, And Governance Problem". Energy Policy 41: 232-240. This situation is characterized by a comfortable equilibrium which is sought by all institutions, markets and society and which is yet hard to leave without major costs. Ibid.

This factor can be integrated in our research in a way that there are some export-oriented regions in Russia (like Tyumenskaya Oblast', for instance) which function and develop only through gas and oil revenues. It shows that they would hardly agree to implement CRESS due to `lock-in' effect, but the import-oriented regions which are not energy-endowed and, consequently, are not locked-in would have more incentives to implement the support policy. In our analysis we will use the `lock-in' factor as one of the independent variables.

2.2.3 Vested interests as a driving factor

The next possible factor which is able to influence the decision of regions (not) to implement the renewable energy support policy is connected with Merriam-Webster `vested interest' theory. It is important to mention that the theory is dangerously similar to `lock-in' effect which is described above. Due to that, we have to claim that they are sufficiently different from each other not to trigger the technical istakes during the quantitative analysis.

The concept of `vested interest' is defined by a bulk of authors as “a group enjoying benefits from an existing economic or political privilege”. "Definition Of UNIVERSAL". 2020. Merriam-Webster.Com. https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/universal. Similarly to the stickiness effect, companies which are benefiting from traditional, for instance, fossil energies can seek to oppose any `new comers', green energies in particular, to protect their own revenue flows. Boute, Anatole, and Alexey Zhikharev. 2019. Op. Cit.: 1-3.; Sovacool, Benjamin K. 2008Op. Cit.: 241-261. However, the main distinction appears between these factors when the `vested theory' scholars admit not only the resources' prevalence, but also attempts by old industrial companies “to preserve their advantage, securing for themselves favorable regulations and institutions”. Moe, Espen. 2012. "Structural Change, Vested Interests, And Scandinavian Energy Policy-Making: Why Wind Power Struggles In Norway And Not In Denmark". The Open Renewable Energy Journal 5 (1): 19-31. That is why in the `vested interest' theory the number and quality of connections of `experienced guys' matter.

The interesting thing is that this theory has the reverse nature. Scholars see vested interests as the mechanism which the new comers, renewable energy entrepreneurs in our case, can use as well (connections with governmental institutions etc.). Haukkala, Teresa. 2015. Op. Cit.: 50-58. That is why Zhang and the coauthors propose that “political connections of executives are valuable resources and have played a significant role in deciding the amount of subsidies provided to renewable energy investors”. Zhang, Huiming, Lianshui Li, Dequn Zhou, and Peng Zhou. 2014. "Political Connections, Government Subsidies And Firm Financial Performance: Evidence From Renewable Energy Manufacturing In China". Renewable Energy 63: 330-336.

Moving back to Russia, we have to consider (again) patrimonial networks between Russia's `green' energy companies and oligarchs, and political elites which can be used to explain the decision to implement the renewable energy support scheme by some regions. In our analysis we will not be able to use the vested interests factor as one of the independent variables due to the lack of knowledge of Russian RE companies' connections. We think that a collection such kind of a data and its analysis will be a great path to continue our research.

2.2.4 Connection to the federal level

The next possible factor influencing sub-units' choice with regard to RE support instruments is about an environment where these sub-unites are - the federalism. Busigina and Gel'man in their researches clearly admit that the system in which Russian sub-units exist is more about the hierarchy or `power vertical' than about a democracy-based balance system called `federalism'. Gel'man, Vladimir, and Sergei Ryzhenkov. 2011. Op. Cit.; Sharafutdinova, Gulnaz, and Rostislav Turovsky. 2016. Op. Cit.; Busygina, Irina. 2016. Op Cit. 113.; Gel'man, Vladimir, and Sergei Ryzhenkov. 2011. Op. Cit. The federal authorities have some necessary demands from regional elites to be fulfilled for the latter not to be dismissed. If the fulfillment is constant and qualified, then regions have so called independence for their activities up to the point at which the federal center is concerned. Ibid. Theoretically, it means that regional authorities which are more or less successful in answering the demands and in lobbing their initiatives have more changes to act independently and to launch innovative projects. If we go back to the CRESS implementation which by its nature can be considered as an innovative decision, regions with higher federal reputation will possibly have more chances to implement it. That is why in our analysis we will use the factor of the level of regions' federal connection (their reputation) as one of the independent variables.

2.2.5 Effective number of parties

Effective number of parties (ENP) is another political factor potentially influencing the RE policies in a state (region). The ENP was first suggested by Laakso and Taagepera in the late 1970s as a measure of party system fragmentation. Laakso, Markku, and Rein Taagepera. 1979. "“Effective” Number Of Parties". Comparative Political Studies 12 (1): 3-27. Yet it has been appreciably modified lately by Govosov. Golosov, Grigorii V. 2009. "The Effective Number Of Parties". Party Politics 16 (2): 171-192. The fragmentation which is counted by level of seats is usually used to show the effective number of legislative parties. Frequently, this indicator is used as a proxy to measure a legislature's effectiveness and an openness of a political regime. For instance, Turchenko in his PhD dissertation uses the ENP of Russian regional legislatures to show how the party of power “United Russia” has used the electoral engineering (caused by the majority of its seats in the most regional parliaments) to lower a number of parties in regional parliaments. Turchenko, Mikhail. 2019. "FAKTORY TRANSFORMATSII IZBIRATEL'nykh SISTEM SUB"YEKTOV ROSSIYSKOY FEDERATSII V PERIOD 2003- 2016 GODOV". Ph.D, National Research University Higher School of Economics in Saint Petersburg. Such an engineering helps the party of power to better control the regional legislation which lowers the openness of the political regime. Considering the fact, that RE policies or sustainable development polices, with the reference to Cadoret and Padovano as well as Chang and Berdiev, are more favored in a more open regimes, we think that we can use the ENP of regional parliaments to proxy regions' regimes. Cadoret, Isabelle, and Fabio Padovano. 2016: 261-269; Chang, Chun Ping, and Aziz N. Berdiev. 2011. "The Political Economy Of Energy Regulation In OECD Countries". Energy Economics 33 (5): 816-825. Therefore, the more open parliament a region has, the higher the possibility that a risky or disputable policy (like a RE policy) can be adopted. In our analysis we will use the ENP factor as one of the independent variables.

2.2.6 Technology and Innovation patents

One more possible factor influencing the decision of regions (not) to implement the renewable energy support policy is connected with technological and innovative tendencies in these regions. Nemet and Soderholm claim that patents on new technologies and innovations, especially for renewable energy, show a positive governmental reinforcement towards new spheres of development. Sцderholm, Patrik, and Ger Klaassen. 2006. "Wind Power In Europe: A Simultaneous Innovation-Diffusion Model". Environmental And Resource Economics 36 (2): 163-190.; Nemet, Gregory F. 2006. "Beyond The Learning Curve: Factors Influencing Cost Reductions In Photovoltaics". Energy Policy 34 (17): 3218-3232. They prove this by a suggestion that if a demand for local patent activity rises, it refers to a rise in companies' activities to develop a sphere. What is more, it refers to a possible government's policies reinforcement to comply with new vested interests. Ibid. New approved patents might also mean a possible increase in employment rate in a sphere which creates or widens the advocacy coalition capable of influencing a political status quo. Ibid.

For the Russian realities, the patent activities can be a natural proxy for the level of regions' entrepreneurial readiness described above. The more open a region for innovations is, the greater number of patents it will approve, the more vested interests among businesses it creates, the higher, of course, the possibility is that a region will implement the RE policy. In our analysis we will use the new patents factor as one of the independent variables.

2.2.7 Electricity market factors

Importantly, we cannot overlook factors which influence acceptance and implementation of RE policies in the regions besides political and economic circumstances. Such factors are clustered by Carley and Miller into the electricity market category and they might be divided into two groups. The first one relates to RE potential in a region. Authors claim that the more renewable energy sources are available in a region, the higher the possibility is that RE policies might be accepted and implemented there. Carley, Sanya, and Chris J. Miller. Op. Cit. 744-745. Otherwise, if there are no sufficient RE capacities, it is inefficient to launch any related policies there for the regional authorities and for businesses.

The second significant group is about electricity prices. Carley and Miller suggest electricity prices as “a straightforward measure of average price paid by electricity end users in each state, expressed in cents/kWh”. Ibid. Moreover, they hypothesize that a higher price will increase the possibility of RE development in the United States due to the creation an alternative electricity generation which is able to lower prices because of competition. Ibid. In our situation it can hardly be like that. We have to recall Busygina's research where a social sphere (electricity prices can be included there) is one of the demands of Russian federal government towards regional governments to keep them in office. Busygina, Irina. 2016. "How Does Russian Federalism Work? Looking At Internal Borders In The Russian Federation". Journal Of Borderlands Studies 32 (1): 105-119.. Thus, we have a basis to conclude that higher prices for electricity will make RE policy implementation less possible for the regional level in Russia to avoid unnecessary conflicts with the center. In our analysis we will use electricity market factors as independent and/or control variables.

2.2.8 Socioeconomic factors

The last but not the least factors to mention in our research which potentially influence regions' decision (not) to implement RE policies are their Gross State Product (GSP) and population rates. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, GSP is a measurement of subnational units' output which presents “the sum of value added from all industries in the state”. "Total Gross State Product (GSP) (Millions Of Current Dollars)". 2020. The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation. https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/total-gross-state-product/?currentTimeframe=0&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D. Chandler shows GSP per capita as a crucial criterion to capture regions' affluence which shows their public material capacities to implement expensive RE policies. Carley, Sanya, and Chris J. Miller. Op. Cit. 744-745.: Chandler, Jess. 2009. "Trendy Solutions: Why Do States Adopt Sustainable Energy Portfolio Standards?". Energy Policy 37 (8): 3274-3281. Furthermore, author believes that GSP has to be adjusted to a per capita measure to illustrate “dramatic discrepancies between large and small states” as well. Chandler sums up that the richer a region is, the higher the possibility is that it will implement RE policies.

The population rate factor relates to RE policies through the electricity demand. Carley and Miller argue that a higher a percentage of population growth in a region “contributes to a higher rate of energy demand growth, which can lead to a greater sense of need for RE generation”. Carley, Sanya, and Chris J. Miller. Op. Cit. 744-745. Consequently, regions with high growth in a population rate are more likely to implement additional RE policies to meet the demand. However, transferring this theoretical explanation to Russia, we have to admit that the Russian electricity generation has an annual surplus trend which can lower the possibility that this suggestion applies to our analysis. In our analysis we will use socioeconomic factors as independent and/or control variables.

2.3 Setting of hypotheses

Given all the aforementioned suggestions which are constructed on the basis of political science theories and concepts, we are going to try to present them within the united theoretical understanding of what factors influence sub-federal units (not) to implement renewable energy policies. Our theoretical framework is built along the suggestions which are reflected in the hypotheses of this research.

Thus, we can list the hypotheses for our work:

1. If there is an upcoming legislature elections or governor elections in a region in a year, the possibility that a RE mechanism will be implemented is lower.

2. If a region is energy-endowed by conventional energy sources, the possibility that a RE mechanism will be implemented is lower.

3. The stronger a connection (reputation) of a region is with the federal center, the higher the possibility is that a RE mechanism will be implemented.

4. The more open a political regime is in a region, the higher the possibility is that a RE mechanism will be implemented.

5. The more open a region for innovations is, the higher the possibility is that a RE mechanism will be implemented.

6. The more renewable energy sources are available in a region, the higher the possibility is that a RE mechanism will be implemented.

7. The higher the electricity prices for end users in a region are, the lower the possibility is that a RE mechanism will be implemented.

8. The higher the GSP per capita in a region is, the higher the possibility is that a RE mechanism will be implemented.

9. The higher the population growth rate in a region is, the higher the possibility is that a RE mechanism will be implemented.

Thereby, we have formulated the theoretical framework of our research rooted in the political science concepts like ideology, vested interests, lock-in effect, policy process etc. which were reviewed in this chapter in detail. Now we have all the necessary theoretical and empirical information to move to the last chapter where we are going to carry out the quantitative analysis of the CRESS implementation by regions. The goal of analysis and the very research is to identify political factors which influence regions of Russia (not) to implement this federal instrument of RE support.

3. The regression analysis of political factors

After having reviewed theoretical aspects that can be applied to our RE supportive mechanism, and some empirical features of the Russian federal energy system, in this section we will move to data analysis: first, we will explain what method and analysis we are going to use, then we are going to look at data collection and data sources. Finally, we will proceed to an analysis and its possible interpretations.

3.1 Poisson and logistic regression analyses

In our research we have chosen a logistic regression method to analyze what influences Russian regions (not) to implement the CRESS. However, while conducting our analysis, we have come across some difficulties with the data frequency which affects the general quality of the analysis by increasing data dispersion. That is why we have had to combine the logistic regression with another regression analysis which is specifically made for low frequency data analysis to make our analysis more explanatory. First, we will describe reasons why we have chosen the logistic regression and describe what it is in general. Second, we will show you a ground, why we have had to add to the analysis the regression called Poisson regression.

To begin with, the logistic regression is easier to explain through a comparison with a well-known linear regression. Linear regression is used by scholars to predict a continuous dependent variable (e.g. age, salary, votes results etc.) by independent variables with the help of a best fit line. "Linear Regression Vs Logistic Regression - Javatpoint". 2020. Www.Javatpoint.Com. https://www.javatpoint.com/linear-regression-vs-logistic-regression-in-machine-learning. By finding an accurate best fit line, scholars usually manage to establish a relationship between dependent and independent variables. In contrast, logistic regression is generally used to predict not a continuous, but a categorical dependent variable (with a binary nature: true/false, 1/0) with the help of independent variables. Ibid. This type of regression is created to solve a classification problem so that scholars can manage to find a probability (not a relationship) that a dependent variable will have 0 or 1 values, for example.