China's Belt and Road Initiative amid Obama's negligence and Trump's pessimism

International relationship of USA and China. Juxtaposing of Barak Obama administration’s mild China policy and its cold response toward Belt Road Initiative and Donald Trump’s administration’s harsh China policy and its pessimism toward the initiative.

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Notwithstanding such threatening perceptions, some American scholars believe that it's a grave miscalculation to rally against China's BRI, which could provide economic benefits for the countries [Kamphausen 2017]. Gal Luft, co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS),recommends US to participate in BRI, since he believes that US engagement in this initiative will help to tackle with the poverty in the Asia. Furthermore, it would also help American companies to have access to the markets which are difficult to reach [Darger 2017].

Similarly, as Susan L. Shirk, an expert on Chinese politics and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State during the Clinton administration, notes, US should not oppose with China's regional initiatives such as BRI, rather encourage China “to channel its ambitions into economic and diplomatic initiatives” and prevent its aggressive military ambitions [Koo 2016].

As a result, US participation and presence in BRI would not only provide an opportunity to enjoy the potential and long-term benefits of BRI, but also enable Washington to monitor and avoid any aggressive behavior that China may pursue. Considering its vast economic and strategic scopes, BRI could offer US and China an opportunity to tackle with some global issues such as financial crisis, terrorism, poverty and infrastructure gap, thereby building up the mutual trust that has been absent in Sino-US relations.

Considering all the above-mentioned issues, it should be taken into consideration that “having a bigger economic footprint does not necessarily translate into greater political influence” [Grabow 2017]. US could identify the convergent and divergent areas in SinoUS relations, within the framework of BRI and thereby taking the best strategy as to how approach this initiative.

From Barack Obama9s Negligence to Donald Trump's Pessimism

After the proposal of BRI in 2013, the Obama's administration received it coldly. In fact, during his tenure there wasn't any congressional hearing to deal with BRI. The same is true for US-China Economic and Security Commission expected to monitor economic and security aspects of US-China relations. Even in some cases US sought to deliberately undermine this initiative [Luft 2017]. However, former Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken, mentioned that US would welcome BRI on the condition that it is fully compliant with international standards and norms, but if it's not, the initiative “could actually undermine the very goals it's seeking to achieve” [Blinken 2015], which implied that there was deep distrust of China and its initiatives in the Obama administration - albeit his acknowledgement of China's global responsibility in establishing prosperity and peace in the world. Thus it should come as no surprise that the Obama administration dismissed BRI out of hand and was not sanguine to participate in Chinese initiatives. Alek Chance ascribes the roots of this pessimism and uncertainty to the following factors. Firstly, China avoided explaining clearly the future plans and motivations behind its initiatives and policies which aroused deep concerns of Americans. Secondly, US regarded BRI as “an element of a broader strategic competition”, which prevented both Americans and Chinese from identifying areas of cooperation in this initiative, and finally, China's assertive behavior in the South China Sea, which suggests that China gives high priority to its national interests and low priority to the interests of other countries in the region, which is in marked contrast with Beijing's claim of “win-win cooperation” in its initiatives such as BRI [Chance 2016].

On the contrary, under the Trump's administration, BRI has occupied a prominent place in US China policy. Taking an ambivalent posture towards BRI, the Trump administration sent its Senior Director for Asian Affairs at the National Security Council, Matthew Pattinger to the 2017 BRI Forum in Beijing [Smith 2018]. Gradually, US approach regarding the viability of this initiative in establishing development and connectivity underwent a considerable change. For the first time in October 2017, James Mattis, former U.S. Defense Secretary, stated that US was seriously concerned about BRI. In fact this initiative faced a barrage of criticism for its standards, intentions and plans under Donald Trump administration. At the 2017 Atlantic Council-Korea Foundation Forum, Rex Tillerson criticized BRI on the ground that it violated international norms and rules and replaced them with their own precepts [Tillerson 2017], which casted serious doubt on the fundamental principles and priorities of BRI. Similarly, during a hearing before US Senate, Mattis mentioned that “In a globalized world, there are many belts and many roads, and no one nation should put itself into a position of dictating `one belt, one road' ”. This stance was also echoed in Senator Gary Peters from Michigan who considered BRI as a strategy “to secure China's control over both the continental and maritime interests, in their eventual hope of dominating Eurasia and exploiting natural resources there” [On OBOR… 2017]. In fact, strategic and geopolitical ambitions of BRI are of great concern to the Trump administration. According to the report released by U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission in 2018, BRI would justify China's overseas military presence which could pose serious security problems for the US and its allies beyond China's maritime periphery [Report to Congress… 2018].

In response to China's BRI and its pervasive influence in international economy and global infrastructure development, the Trump administration announced plans to reform US “development finance institutions” and support “private sector investments” He also asked International Financial Institutions (IFIs) to “dedicate greater resources to largescale infrastructure projects” [Kliman 2018]. In this vein, the Trump administration seeks to establish and deepen cooperative ties with its allies and partners to deal with the challenges BRI might pose [President Donald J. Trump's Visit to Japan… 2017].

In sum, it seems that the Obama administration didn't take any practical measures to deal with BRI and chose a policy of negligence towards this initiative. Lack of references to BRI in its policy documents regarding Sino-US ties signals the inertial qualities of Obama's strategic policies towards BRI. Barack Obama had a holistic view of Chinese initiatives including AIIB and BRI, and refrained from focusing exclusively on them since he assumed them as US China policy in General. Furthermore, the Obama administration pinned its hope on Pivot to Asia, and expected that it would strengthen US alliance system, a factor that Barack Obama thought would contain the rise of China in general and its initiatives in particular. On the other hand, since Donald Trump assumed power, he has concentrated on strategic challenges and competition in US-China relations and explicitly questioned the desirability of BRI which could pose serious challenges to the US in every economic and geopolitical domains. Therefore, it is not surprising that the Trump administration looked at BRI pessimistically.

Conclusion

The paper contributes to the ongoing debate about the role of BRI in Sino-US relations by investigating Barack Obama and Donald Trump's China policies in general and their perceptions of BRI in particular. It also shows that although Americans are cognizant of the important role of BRI in international order, and its potential benefits to the US, they still receive it coldly. Hence, the future participation of US in this initiative remains under a cloud of suspicion. In fact, both Barack Obama and Donald Trump seem uncomfortable to play in a game whose rules are set by China. Casting suspicions on Chinese initiatives, Barack Obama and Donald Trump contend that China does not act within international acts and precepts. As a result, they tend to engage with China selectively on the areas that are more to the benefit of US.

The paper also suggests that US China policy is heavily influenced by “realist camp” and “liberal camp”. On the one hand, cooperating with China is considered as a threat to US primacy. Thus BRI is perceived as a means of challenging US in economic, political and strategic spheres, which set the stage for President Trump's zero-sum and unilateral China policy that has been strongly favored by economic issues. With saying this, it is hardly likely that US and China could establish cooperative ties against the backdrop of BRI. Unlike Barack Obama, Donald Trump tends to develop a strong strategic response to BRI. A prime example is his proposal of FOIP which seeks to deal with rise of China in general and BRI in particular.

While Donald Trump's FOIP seeks to follow US interests in Asia-Pacific region on a country-by-country basis which highlights the commitment to bilateralism rather than multilateralism, Barack Obama's Pivot to Asia sought to suggest big vision of America's regional policies in Asia-Pacific region to maintain US primacy in the region.

On the other hand, the “liberal camp” in US administration promotes establishing cooperative ties with China, and displaying China as a responsible state that could play significant role in the global affairs. This camp believes that Beijing's integration in international system would contain and balance the rise of China. Seeking middle-ground in his China policy, Barack Obama completely resorted neither to tough measures of “realist camp” nor soft measures of “liberal camp” In other words, he sought to strike a balance between his soft and tough policies to deal with China. On the one hand, there were some key figures in his administration, such as Jeffrey A. Bader and Evan Medeiros, who advocated increasing cooperation with Beijing and integrating it into international system - albeit its increasing power [Larus and Hargis 2017]. On the other hand, Barack Obama haunted with the current strategic distrust between US and China, which has been existed in Sino-US trajectory since Nixon administration. This mentality, thus guided him to take conservative stances toward Beijing. The existence of deep strategic distrust in Sino-US relations, lack of transparency in specifying the future objectives of BRI, and considering Chinese initiatives as a strategic competition convinced Obama to dismiss BRI.

Regarding the importance of BRI in US-China relations, the paper reiterates that US China policy since the inception of BRI is premised on a combination of cooperation and competition. Analyzing the initiative to identify such elements could help US and Chinese decision makers to manage frictions and strategic rivalry in their relations.

From a policy perspective, this study has some key takeaways. US authorities need to be pleased with China's attempts at shouldering global responsibility of establishing peace, security and prosperity, epitomized by BRI. Moreover, US hawkish policies vis-avis Beijing would merely pave the way for hardliners in CCP to extend their influence in China's foreign policy, which makes establishing constructive and amicable relations too difficult. Collaborating with China within the framework of BRI, US would have an eye on the rise of China and enjoy the economic and strategic benefits accruing from the development of this global initiative. China does not exclude US from participating in this initiative, which could be understood from Chinese heavy emphasis on the inclusiveness and openness of BRI. In order to avert potential crisis in their relations with China's BRI, US authorities could have a second thought on their decision of not to take part in this initiative. Global infrastructure gap, for instance, is a natural place for US and China to work together. BRI could be a perfect mechanism to meet this demand and need throughout the developing and developed countries.

The road to eventual success of BRI will be long and bumpy. It looks good on paper but could become costly on the ground. Chinese leaders thus need to prioritize transparent diplomatic engagement to allay current mistrust regarding their foreign policies and initiatives.

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